Written by: Brian Neudorff
Cold front moved through the region this morning and around 9am in Rochester rain changed over to snow. It is coming down at a nice rate and we will see our first real accumulation of the winter season.
I am expecting many to see any where from a slushy inch to many four inches. It will really depend on snow rate, air temperatures and ground temperature too. If we get an inch or two any additional snow could accumulate. I d0n't think we will see more than three or four inches by evening with the exception of Wyoming and Genesee counties where some lake effect and enhancement will help accumulation amounts.
Here is your turn - we want to see your photos you can send to weather@rochesterhomepage.net also let us know how much snow you've received, your location and what time you took your measurement. All these reports are beneficial in telling the complete weather story. Thank you to all of you.
I'm in Brighton near Browncroft. As of 1:00 I have 1" of snow accumulated. I use a piece of plywood painted white as my "snow board" so that measurement should be fairly accurate.
ReplyDeletei am in Brighton too! as of 2:30 we have 2 inches and i measure right from the ground with a ruler
ReplyDeleteGot about 2" on Winton Rd in Rochester. Snow has stopped but it's still graupelling.
ReplyDeleteAre the numbers in at the airport? I'm curious how much our official number will add up to.
ReplyDeletesnow stopped in Brighton i hope it will start up soon and the snow we have will not melt.
ReplyDeleteOntario, NY consistent measurement of 3.5 inches...What a lovely suprise to have that cold front sweep thru quicker then previously anticipated have the trailing precipitation fall as wet snow..carful shoveling..its heavy condensed snow..hard on some peoples back..Enjoy:)also the roadways should freeze tnite.. now its on to the lake effect even mon-wed:)
ReplyDeleteHere in Ontario, NY we have 3-5 inches of snow... some areas around have had upwards of 5.25 inches where other areas as low as 2 inches but most generally 3-5 inches... any news about the lake effect next week please... I want to see more snow like today only not as heavy wet snow as this was... it was a pain shoveling it.
ReplyDelete2.5 inches in perinton
ReplyDeleteAre there any blog readers out in the Batavia area? It looks like you'll pick up some decent lake effect this evening. I'd be interested to hear reports out that way if it materializes.
ReplyDeleteis there a possibility of the lake effect band from Lake Erie extending across Monroe county tonight?
ReplyDeleteNot this time, Charles. Boundary layer winds won't be strong enough for one thing. And even if they were, the band is setup too far south. The only reason the band made it to our region last time was because the winds were firmly WSW and they were sustained at around 30 MPH. Anything under that speed and it's just not enough to carry it to ROC. Batavia is usually the cutoff on a WSW wind.
ReplyDeleteOne thing is for sure though, areas just....and I mean JUST south of the city of Buffalo are going to get buried with up to 24" of snow. The area around Hamburg and Orchard Park is getting slammed as I type...and it's expected to remain stationary for nearly 36 hours.
ReplyDeleteScott are things still looking good for decent snow in Rochester on Monday and Tuesday? Any changes in your thinking from yesterday?
ReplyDeleteAs for snow tonight, just Southwest where Wyoming County will be the big winner by morning. The previous poster was correct in discussing the lack of strong lower level winds to extend that snowband further East. That band will jog a bit before settling South.
ReplyDeleteAs for next week, still expect localized lake effect off of Ontario but there are mitigating factors. Synoptic influrence too far Northeast and dry air could hurt big snow amounts. Low inversion heights as well expected.
Why is it when we finally get a favorable wind for Rochester to get good lake effect there is something that always hinders it. Every freeking time!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Dry air, low inversions. Not the case South and West of us.
ReplyDeleteRochester the city is no longer a snow place it is a joke for winter lovers! We will not get any real big snow totals in one storm all winter. It is not good for us snow lovers.
ReplyDeleteRochester International Airport reported 3.3 inches of snow today
ReplyDeleteI feel your frustration guys. As for why the lake effect is more potent to the southwest is because the fetch off lake erie is just enormous when you're talking a WSW wind. I'm talking a fetch of a COUPLE HUNDRED MILES, versus our fetch which is much, much less. That's the same reason the tug hill gets so much snow. Fetch is important.
ReplyDeleteAnd not to rub things in, but Batavia is getting slammed right now. Accumulations closing in on 10" on the west side of Batavia, and around 8" in the city of Batavia. The lake band has taken a slightly more northerly jog than expected. Reports closer to Buffalo are coming in around 15" on the south side of Buffalo and it's eastern and southern suburbs.
3 inches in Gananda. Whoopdo Doo. It is sad that we can only get excited about a few inches of snow here and there.
ReplyDeleteThe thruway in Buffalo is now SHUT DOWN. Snow mobiles are traveling up the thruway to check on stranded vehicles. Truckers are sleeping in their campers right on the thruway because they can't go anywhere. People are calling the situation a disaster in Buffalo right now. I would push the channel 8 news team to cover this story in the morning, Brian!
ReplyDeleteThey are getting so much snow over by Buffalo
ReplyDeleteThe thruway continues to be shut down. The save vehicles that were stranded on the I-90 are STILL there as of this morning. I would imagine they've been abandoned at this point. Whiteout conditions with snowfall rates of up to 2" per hour with thunder and lightning are continuing in the same exact areas. 2 Feet of snow has already been recorded in numerous locations in south Buffalo.
ReplyDeleteI think that there is a chance they could get 3 ft of snow in areas over there
ReplyDeleteyep, A few locations are now over the two foot mark, so another foot before all is said and done should be pretty easy.
ReplyDeleteAs for our snow hopes, I remember Scott said yesterday that basically conditions weren't looking quite as favorable as earlier thought. But since he said that, the GFS, NAM and EURO now have a low crashing onto the east coast and actually "backing up" from the Atlantic ocean right into our area with synoptic snow, wind and lake enhancement. I can't wait to see what Scott thinks about these latest model shifts...especially since they're shifting toward something that is less than 5 days away.
I saw that the models show the low as close as northern NY to us which would certainly give us a burst of heavy snow at times
ReplyDeleteWell, the latest 12z GFS is in. Still looks good, in my opinion, to give us a better impact than yesterday's runs. It has multiple waves of low pressure retrograding inland from the Atlantic around Maine, and then carries them somewhere between Montreal and Quebec City. Each wave of low pressure will send "chunks" of synoptic snow our way from the east and north. On radar it will look wierd because our precip will be coming from the right side of the screan (east) rather than the left (west). As these chunks of synoptic moisture cross lake Ontario, the lake will help further enhance the moisture and add to accumulations. Along with this, it looks like we'll have gusty winds and temps struggling to get out of the upper 20's. The pattern, to me, looks similar to last year's January 1-4 event, but not as cold, as Scott pointed out. Though probably slightly warmer lakes.
ReplyDeleteWhat model do you look at to get the precip? I go to this page and usually look at GFS and Euro but, not sure which composite to select - I know 850mb is what is usually talked about but, I just see temp and wind vectors - I think. Thanks
ReplyDeletehttp://vortex.plymouth.edu/grb-comp_an.html
Click on this link:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/
Once there, click on the latest run of the GFS column. For example, the latest run as of this post is 12 UTC. Then, Click on "medium".
Once you click on medium, go to the second column from the left where it sais, "850mb Temp, MSLP, 6hr Pcpn." Click "loop."
This will show you a loop of 850 temps, pressure and precip. Just remember the farther out in the hours you go in the "loop" the larger the cone of error can be. I don't trust much of what I see on it beyond about hour 180. But once you get about 90-120 hours out or sooner, I start to take more stock into what it's suggesting...especially if it spits out the same data run after run consistently.
And by the way, the NAM is also available on that site as well. Just follow the same steps only under the NAM category. The NAM only goes out 84 hours, but it's accuracy goes down dramatically beyond 60 hours.
Also, you can get the ECMWF (A.K.A the Euro) model off of the Penn State E-wall. Penn State having what I consider to be the best meteorology program in the United States! And Scott's Alma Mater.
ReplyDeleteThat can be found here:
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/ewall.html
Not sure how you are reading the models I see minimal snow from the models low not close enough depending on the winds some lake effect. Scott has not even responded not going to be a big deal. But who knows they all said rain yesterday in the city and wrong again! I believe in my accuracy more than those getting paid to do it!
ReplyDeleteIs there a web site that we Rochesterian's can check while we are spending the winter in Florida for snowfall totals, etc?
ReplyDeleteNobody ever said we were going to get dumped with feet of snow in a day or anything. You have to be able to interpret what you're seeing and it's implications rather than just look at where the green blobs are on the simulated models and take it for face value. The position of the low.....the depth of the low....the proximaty to the lake....and the duration of the low staying over one location....and the fact that the low is coming off the Atlantic ocean backwards implies A LOT. Again, it's more than just looking at the model for face value without understanding what you're looking at fully.
ReplyDeleteBoth Scott and I were both talking about rain in the morning changing over to snow. You failed to mention that part of the forecast. Yes we missed the mark with the snow accumulating like it did. I was thinking we would see the change over later towards noon and also not a prolonged area of precipitation as snow.
ReplyDeleteUnfortunately for us the snow changed over 3 hours earlier than I had anticipated and there was still plenty of precipitation left so we ended up with around 3 inches of wet snow.
You have every right to believe yours, ours or anyone eles accuracy you like but if you are going to come on here and crtiticize I would appreciate that you get the facts straight.
I love the involvment by all of you on this blog, and being in the business of forecasting weather you are going to take your share of lumps especially when you get a forecast wrong. People remember the wrongs more than they remember the good ones. You could be right 999 times out of a 1000 but everyone will remember that one time.
As far as the snow forecast Scott hasn't mentioned amounts but he has responded. We have been talking more lake effect than synoptic with the up coming even next week.
Here is his part of his post from Tuesday, "While it is very early to be specific, I do expect Rochester's first prolonged lake effect snowfall of the season. This setup in the past has been quite favorable for Monroe, Wayne and Orleans Counties. Snow lovers who already quit on this Winter, perk up! It appears that you just might get some snow around here sooner rather than later!"
My advice in reading the models this far out is go slow. Don't get too excited until about 50 to 60 hours out when you can compare a short term model and a long term model like the EURO and GFS. There are so many biases when it comes to how these different models view the atmosphere that is why you see major differences at times. Also becareful not to put so much into either scenario thay may be shown but maybe try to extrapulate an average forecast of the 2. Realistically that may very well be the more correct outcome than what the models are showing.
Very well said, Brian. It's glad to see your calming words among all these snow-hyper posters. I love snow myself, but as they say, the higher you build something up, the greater the fall if it doesn't pan out exactly as you wanted.
ReplyDeleteHappy Holidays everyone.
You know what, Brian. I think it's important for forecasts to not always go "exactly" as planned. All that does is show that forecasting weather isn't as easy as many people seem to think it is. If the public knew even HALF of the math, science and just overall understanding of the atmosphere that goes into forecasting weather, then they would be a lot more understanding when things don't always go as planned. As patients, we know our doctors have to understand so many little things about the human body in order to come up with a correct diagnosis / prognosis. It's not that different with a meteorologist. Just a different field of study.
ReplyDeleteWhat happened on this blog? We DID predict a changeover with a trace to 1". The changeover occurred about 2 hours before expected which resulted in a little more snow. I think people are spoiled by how much information is out there about weather and forecasting of weather. Looking at models is only one very small part of the collection of information I use to forecast. I don't have the time to get into all that is involved but to all those guys out there who feel they know how to forecast, go take a basic class in meteorology.
ReplyDeleteI suspect you'll change your tune. As they say, ignorance is bliss!
As for the upcoming lake enhanced snow, expect snow to increase in our area as a low cuts off and stalls over Northern Vermont. The placement and strength of this low will determine the volume of snow our area will get. Too early for specifics but significant snow accumulations are possible for Rochester and all towns North Sunday through Wednesday.
I totally agree. There may be a couple smart kids on here that know more than the average "joe" about weather. BUT you need slow down with jumping head first into these computer models. If you pulled that stuff in a college course, I can bet your professor would really bring you down to earth quickly.
ReplyDeleteAgain I would like to express my appreciation to Channel 8 weather team for taking time out of their day to comment on this blog...and for putting up with some of the anonymously posted criticism and ignorant comments. There are many people who are appreciative of this blog and hope it continues.
ReplyDelete