Written By: Scott Hetsko
The much talked about storm that will miss the region directly will have an impact indirectly Christmas night through early Monday. You guessed it, localized lake effect snow will develop on a cold Northerly flow. The winds look almost perpendicular to the long axis of Lake Ontario which would result in multibands of snow North of the thruway.
The air will be somewhere between -12 to -16C at around 5,000 feet. I expect several inches of snowfall within these bands and little elsewhere. We won't get NEAR the amounts some saw during the first few weeks of December.
Scott,
ReplyDeleteI notice the latest 12z Euro absolutely blows up a massive storm just off the jersey coast and then slows it down for awhile this weekend. It has shifted slightly west from previous runs. I'm not saying that this latest run will come true....But just theoretically, if that track depicted in the 12z run of the Euro were to verify, would it be close enough to spin back synoptic snowfall west enough to clip Rochester?
Sure and I'm usually a fan of EURO but I'm about sold on the slow coastal ride North. Similar to the storm that knicked the Cape with a foot of snow this week.
ReplyDeleteScott
Scott, will the storm be close enough to give us a NE wind and lake enhanced snow?
ReplyDeleteHere is what I do not understand. The models are all over the place. But they have SE for the storm. It is still 5-6 days out. How come the thinking is not because of LaNina where historyt has showed the storms move more NW in direction like they did all last year. Why would this one not move NW towards us? Thought part of weather is looking at history and patterns?
ReplyDeleteThe blog is quiet now where is everyone mad bc no synoptic snowstorm? I just have a hunch that do not give up on this one yet still 5 days away things have been known to change.
ReplyDeleteThe NWS out of Binghampton is going with the Euro solution and a powerhouse storm bombing around NYC. They put up a hazardous weather outlook for Central, NY. If this solution verifies we would not get a direct hit, but we would get something. The new GFS take the storm right out to sea missing all the big cities.
ReplyDeleteGFS 06er takes the track down to Florida then on the sea and straight up... What the heck???
ReplyDeleteWhy do the modells have such huge problems with this storm?
The models have been having huge problems with EVERY storm of significance this year. They can't agree on anything until about 60 hours out.
ReplyDeleteScott or Brian,
Does it look like we'll have any accumulating snow tonight? I see the radar is showing some moisture trying to get into our area. I'm wondering if once the sun goes down we'll see a flare up of lake effect?
I wouldn't go by the GFS at this point. It has done terrible against the ECMWF (euro) lately. It really is true that the euro is superior over the GFS. We really need to make improvements on our model over here or it will be as reliable as the navy NOGAPS.
ReplyDeleteIt seems that the closer this gets it is still unclear of where this storm will go. holding out hope for a storm here. Scott is hardly ever wrong though!!!
ReplyDeleteAint gonna happen. Even the closest storm track depicted in previous runs is STILL too far to the east. Just another big miss by a synoptic storm. Get used to it. And my heart goes out to those that will be stuck with a green christmas well south of the thruway.
ReplyDeleteStorm won't go up the coast until Monday anyway so any snow wouldn't fall East of us until that time. As for us, don't expect much from the coastal low except some lake flakes at most.
ReplyDeleteScott
That is accurate no chance that this storm will give us any synoptic snow. If the Euro plays out the big cities on the coast will get smacked with over a foot. We are just not located in the area where big snow storms hit. The jet stream no longer favors sour area.
ReplyDeleteGreat synoptic snowfall in late February of this year so I wouldn't say we're not located in an area where big storms hit. We are, just not recently.
ReplyDeleteScott
I believe these things have a way of balancing out. Don't forget that the Mid Atlantic area (D.C. Baltimore, Phili) were suffering through several years of snow drought up until last year came along. I don't know how this winter will evolve with synoptic snows, BUT I think the next couple winters after this one (2011/12 and 2012/13) will be big ones for our area as we'll have a weak to neutral ENSO and be continuing our global cooling trend with continued lower than normal solar activity. I wouldn't be surprised to see a winter more like the winter of 1995-96 in the next few winters to come.
ReplyDeleteBy the way, the sun has been blank, NO sunspots for its 4th straight day. That was unusual a year or two ago even, and it's even more unusual now as we're less than two weeks away from the year 2011 and the sun is still struggling to fully wake up. By now, that sun should be broken out with sunspots all over the place. Don't think for a second that the sun isn't contributing to the strong la nina and also the crazy "blocky" pattern we've been experiencing in the last couple years.
I see some radar returns popping up over the lake and dropping south toward ROC. Could we hit the all time December snowfall record tonight?
ReplyDeleteLES is absolutely correct in saying that the SUN plays a HUGE role in global weather. Of course it does, it's THE reason we have wind and weather on the planet in the first place.
ReplyDeleteScott
Scott,
ReplyDeleteWhat's all that stuff on radar dropping down? Is it snow or just freezing drizzle?
It's a mix of freezing drizzle and what I call "snizzle". Just enough to slick up the roads a bit.
ReplyDeleteIt will be interesting to at least watch this storm on the coast Monday. Will it be a blockbuster for the DC and Philly areas or will it go OTS?
ReplyDeleteLooks like a pattern change next week, with, you guessed it, a storm going to our West. DO you see that Scott? I wonder of the first part of December was our winter and the rest of the actual winter will be a bust.
ReplyDeleteIt's only one day into winter and your already thinking winter is going to be a bust?! Everyone needs to be patient and not freak out if a storm misses us, there are still two historically snowy months ahead. And even though last march wasn't eventful, there have been plenty of major storms that have hit our neck of the woods in the past. Example: Superstorm of '93
ReplyDelete