Written by: Bob MetcalfeIf you were to take the GFS for face value for next weekend, there's a little more promise for frigid, windy conditions along with some snow locally. Freezing temperatures would head as far south as the Carolinas. But I don't buy it at this point, at least not yet.
First and foremost, I like to look at how the longer range models line up towards the last few hours of the NAM to see how they are in line with them. If you look at the 84 hour NAM guidance, the EURO seems much more in tune with the overall pattern, whereas the GFS is looking a bit wacky with some feedback and misplaced lows. It's not a lot, but small errors compound quickly down the road.
Also, the EURO has been pretty good to us lately with regards to being in tune 5-7 days out. In college, we did a lot of studies about how the EURO can often times be a superior product as compared to the GFS in different scenarios. Its not always a given fact though, as there have been several seasons where the GFS has kicked butt. This year though, at least from my standpoint, I give it to the EURO so far. The image above is for early Saturday morning, which shows a storm off the east coast, far enough away that our effects would be minimal in regards to snowfall. Also notice that the 540 line (the hashed blue line) only goes down into the Virginias, where at the same time the GFS has it as far south as Atlanta.
Time will tell, as it always does, but I don't see any reason to get excited about big snowfall potential next weekend.... yet.
Happy New Year!
Bob,
ReplyDeleteWhat does the 540 line represent?
Bob hates snow..
ReplyDeleteLMFAO!! Doubt that is "The Real Jim", but that is Hillarious! I hope we get it waist hight to a 10 foot circus clown!
ReplyDeleteForecast from channel 13 for Tuesday....
ReplyDeleteLight snow likely. Several inches of accumulation possible area-wide.
Just an FYI, it's officially a crime to impersonate someone on a social networking site. Keep that in mind.
ReplyDeleteJust because the forecast doesn't look perfect for major snow doesn't mean the messenger doesn't like snow. You gotta deliver what you see. If the mets forecasted chilly temperatures and rain for the fourth of July, would we declare that they hate warm, sunny summer weather? Probably not.
ReplyDeleteSo whats the deal with this snow possible Tuesday?
ReplyDeleteNothing significant, Dave. Bob said 1-2 inches, and computer model output agrees with that prediction. Thursday and Friday look to be more promising for more than that. I wouldn't be surprised to see at least a Winter Weather Advisory issued for much of the area toward the end of the week. The combination of clipper systems streaking across the area and even the possibility of a couple retrograding lows coming at us from the Atlantic (similar to the pattern in early December) will make Rochester and much of WNY progressively snowier at the end of the week and probably into the weekend too. We'll be entering into another period of strongly negative NAO and its powerful Greenland block, which will keep persistant moisture and cold combined in place for an extended period. With that said, pin pointing exact locations for the best snow is impossible at this time. But I stand by my idea that everybody will have SEVERAL inches (3"+) on the ground by next weekend...and that even includes places like Canandaigua, Geneseo, Mt. Morris and Dansville. But as usual, the best chance for more substantially deep snow by next weekend is the corridor from the NYS Thruway to lake Ontario. Sorry middle Genesee Valley. Nothing huge for you yet, but you should do better this time around than the little dustings of snow you had in December while the ROC metro got slammed by snow.
ReplyDeleteI agree with Bob. There is nothing to get excited about for this weekend. If anything, it will be a New England snowstorm, but not for us. We will be left with a few inches of fake fluff
ReplyDeleteSounds good DK! thanks for the update...
ReplyDeleteThis from the National Weather Service:
ReplyDelete“MORE ATTENTION CONTINUES TO TURN TO THE POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT
TURN OF EVENTS NEXT WEEK. BIG RIDGE WILL BUILD N INTO ALASKA BY
LATE WEEKEND… SUPPORTING A SIZEABLE BUILDUP OF ARCTIC AIR OVER W
CANADA AND DOWNSTREAM HEIGHT FALLS INTO SW CANADA AND NW CONUS.
FORMATION OF A 500-MB 575-580 HIGH OVER AK… WHICH HAS BEEN
ADVERTIZED BY THE GFS AND ECMWF FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW… GENERALLY
DOES NOT TURN OUT WELL – FOR MOST OF THE LOWER 48 MUCH LESS THE S
PLAINS. GFS SFC-T PROGS FOR NEXT TUESDAY ARE UNPRECEDENTED AS FAR
AS THIS FORECASTER CAN RECALL… AND IF TAKEN LITERALLY WOULD
IMPLY THAT PARTS OF MT/WY WOULD STRUGGLE TO REACH HIGHS OF -30F
NEXT TUESDAY. THAT SEEMS A WEE BIT EXTREME… BUT IN ANY EVENT THE
PATTERN CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A TURN TOWARD SIGNIFICANT AND
POTENTIALLY SEVERE WINTER WEATHER IN SOME WAY SHAPE OR FORM – THE
STUFF NATIONAL HEADLINES ARE MADE OF – BY SOMETIME NEXT WEEK.
COLD AIR IS LIKELY TO BEGIN INVADING THE PACNW AND NORTHERN
ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND AND ROLL SE THEREAFTER. AT
THIS TIME WE ARE LEANING TOWARD THE ECMWF AND A FASTER INVASION OF
ARCTIC AIR INTO THE S PLAINS NEXT SUNDAY NIGHT. WHAT HAPPENS AFTER
THAT IS HARD TO SAY. BITTER COLD… SNOW AND/OR ICE… OR PERHAPS
ALL OF THE ABOVE. SUFFICE TO SAY NEXT WEEK LOOKS TROUBLESOME.” NWS Norman
How does the NWS in Norman, OK and their local area forecast discussion have any bearing on local weather in western NY?
ReplyDeleteWhat happens in the plains and central US doesn't translate into the same here in the Great Lakes.
To those reading this do not be confused. This is not a discussion nationally or for western NY. I don't want people thinking major cold and ice for our area. -Brian
I believe in the phrase "think globally to forecast locally." I just thought that a pattern as large scale as what they are describing in their discussion would have to translate to our area eventually - especially since this cold air isn't projected to stall out, but rather spill right into the lower 48 with a large ridge near Alaska. While the coldest of air would reach the Rockies and high plains first (As noted by the discussion), the latest ensembles seem to support cold reaching WNY as well, with intense cold projected for our area locally beginning next week and lasting through at least part of the second half of January. So, I just thought i'd give a little heads up about what might happen with the overall pattern. Sorry if I offended anybody...
ReplyDeleteIt doesn't Brian but for folks who like winter weather, it is fun to read regaurdless of where it is happening. The article does not say anything about WNY, so I think the forum wont go into panic or lock down mode.
ReplyDeleteI am not upset or offended. I realize we have a wide variety of commenters and posters on this blog. It is very welcomed but I don't want to confuse or scare away someone who has a question but doesn't have the same knowledge base that many of you have.
ReplyDeleteI love the excitement many of you have and the passion but there is a lot of wishcasting going on here. For those who don't know, wishcasting is when you forecast based on what you want to see not on what might actually happen.
It's easy to get caught up in especially if there is a run or a model that is showing what you hope to be truth.
Of the three meteorologist in the department I will be the first to tell you long range forecasting is not my strong area. That is probably why you don't see many post from me on that topic. From what I have seen and read it definitely looks like a nice shot at cold into the weekend. Not sure we are going to see much synoptic but at this point too many questions and not enough answers for the storm off the east coast this weekend.
I will try to say more in a blog post later today.
New Post has been added for Monday. - Brian
ReplyDelete