Written By: Scott Hetsko
An area of low pressure riding out of Arkansas early Saturday will deepen earlier than expected yesterday. As a result, I think an areawide nuisance snowfall is on the way Saturday evening into early Sunday.
The potential for advisory criteria snow is possible but at most 4" will likely fall in any given area by Sunday morning. Low pressure will scoot quickly off shore and lose influence on the region by mid morning Sunday. Enjoy a fresh frosting of snow over the weekend and go sledding!
Im sure you saw the Nam and the GFS and the Canadian trying to give the roc .75 of precip. The nam printout says 9.2 inches sat nite. Why so low? mixing? or just kinda gun shy over the last one. yur more bullish than anyone else yet. but I like this track. It is SE. a 992 over se central ny usually gives us results.
ReplyDeleteI think 2-4 is low based on the latest GFS and NAm. My non-expert opinion is 4-8. At least winter weather advisories will go up tomorrow morning.
ReplyDeleteWinter Storm watches just went up for the adorondecks. I think this might be our fate by tomorrow morning.
ReplyDeleteI gotta agree on this one. Unless the models suddenly pull back within the next 18 hours, I see more than 2 to 4 inches. I think the dilemma that all the mets are faced with tonight is that not one, but TWO highly valued models turned aggressive with the snow seemingly out of nowhere tonight. It's the kind of jump that would normally be discounted pending further runs if not for the fact that it's for an event that is expected to begin TOMORROW. It's a tough call to make. Do you go with the full amount showing based on one single run because it's so near term? or do you go conservative? I'd probably go conservative, too. But since i'm not a met, I can play around with this. I think 4-6 or 5-8 seem like a good bet based on the latest model runs. Like I said though, it will be a wet, slushier snow, so it will take more effort to really "fluff" up deep. If this were a dry snow, we'd be looking at double digits. But this stuff will come "pre-compacted" so no reason to call it "fake fluff" like lake effect. 4 to 8 inches of heavy, dense snow on top of the roughly 8 or so inches we already have on the ground will really make our overall snowpack quite deep. Let's hope we don't have a dramatic thaw down the road with heavy rain or we'll be talking about major hydrological issues.
ReplyDeleteAs usual buffalo did an update at 11:30 with no changes to their snow forecast. The even say the storm will strengthen as it moves into SE NY, yet do not mention our increased chances of good snow.
ReplyDeleteThere is a good explanation as to why the models have turned aggressive on this storm out of the NWS in Albany.
ReplyDelete***************
00Z NAM/GFS HAVE NOW BOTH SHIFTED THE GREATER QPF AMOUNTS EVENFARTHER NORTH...WHICH IS A CONTINUING TREND FROM THE LAST FEW
MODEL RUNS. REASON BEING THE UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW NOW MOVING INTO ARKANSAS IS STRONGER AND SLOWER THAN MODELS HAD PROJECTED...WHICH HAS ALLOWED FOR STRONGER DOWNSTREAM RIDGING AND
A MORE NORTH AND WEST TRACK TO THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW. INFACT...BOTH THE NAM AND GFS NOW CONTINUE MAINTAIN THE STRENGTH OF
THE UPPER LOW AS IT TRACKS INTO THE NORTHEAST LATER TODAY ANDTONIGHT. THIS PLACES THE DEFORMATION REGION NOW NORTH OF THE
CAPITAL REGION...MORE TOWARDS THE ADIRONDACKS AND STILL POSSIBLYINTO SOUTHERN VERMONT. HOWEVER...WITH A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK
NOW...WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL INVADE AREAS FARTHER NORTH THANPREVIOUSLY THOUGHT...AND THE MAGNITUDE OF WARMING IS NOW GREATER ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTHERN AREAS.
Once again we in the southerntier are on the borderline of getting lesser amounts (Wayland-Dansville area). I'll take what we can get but for once I'm hoping we get more than just 1-3".
ReplyDeleteThanks for the update, looking forward to our fresh coating!
DK, I agree with you, 4-6+ looks like a good bet my friend..
ReplyDeleteWhere is Chris?
Remember.... the big snow falls are never hyped up, and are usually forecasted low. Then these 'Monster' storms end up busting. Happens every year.
ReplyDeleteWatch that 850MB going to be close, don't take the bait just yet
ReplyDeleteaccuweather says 7 inches for pavilion. What's going on around here? seems like these storms are coming from nowhere. It's awesome, Let it snow!!!!!!!!!!! Great winter for Snowmobiling!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
ReplyDelete"Enjoy"??????
ReplyDeleteThere's not enough of the garbage out there already to "enjoy"?
More than half a foot of snow will bury some cities and towns along a zone from western New York into Maine. Meanwhile, a messy mix of snow, sleet and freezing rain will deposit an icy coating along the southern edge of the snow.
ReplyDeleteWhere are you guys getting 1/2 foot totals ? Every where i look it is 1-4 ..
ReplyDeleteI agree not sure where you guys are getting 6 inches weather.com has 1-4 for western NY as did Scott. So not sure what everyone is talking about.
ReplyDeleteIt says 3-5 right in the advisory, and if you need the discussion. The storm is moving a little slower and a little stronger. We will see how it plays out. Considering it was going to be maybe a dusting of light snow to maybe 5" is pretty cool to me. Means plowing and it means Cash, Money.
ReplyDeleteWhere Chris?
I would love to see several inches of accumulation out of this but it really looks like the storm is pushing even farther north and west introducing a mix once again. How do the models miss so badly once again, this is crazy!!!
ReplyDeleteit's snowing at 1. here in genesee county.
ReplyDeleteSleet falling in Farmington. Dryslot on the doorstep as well. When will we ever get a good snowfall?
ReplyDeleteLight snow near the airport...
ReplyDeleteWhat we are getting now is not the storm. That will come tonight. Let's see what happens.
ReplyDeleteYou are exactly right....
ReplyDeleteThis absolutely is the storm. We will get a bit of raparound as it passes to the south and east but it will not accumulate any more than an inch or two. I was very excited to see the forecast when I got up this morning but now I am just disappointed again. I really hope the storm later next week comes far enough inland to directly impact us because after that we may see a significant warm spell.
ReplyDeleteThere is nothing coming so not sure what everyone is seeing. DK mentioned this JB thing like the storm of the century is coming it is all nuts. There is not even a storm appearing on the GFS for late next week. Again as much as he is an a** Andrew has been correct and people have butchered him. But I am thinking he is right that there will be no big storm in Rochester this winter and that spring is coming early. The data suggets a major pattern change and we will get an early spring bring it on!
ReplyDeleteAndrew doesnt know shit...
ReplyDeleteIt is so funny look at channel 10s forecast just put down snow everyday and hope. How can you put snow for Monday and Thursday when there is not alot of evidence to show we will get any snow. Not sure why there are weatherman on daily for newscasts should be every few days and only every day when a storm is actually happening.
ReplyDeleteyou guys that can predict the weather that far out - do you dabble in stocks? if so, call me
ReplyDeleteAll next week it will be well below normal temps, but no big storms in sight for us. A pattern change is due though.
ReplyDeleteThat may be but he seemed more accurate then some who post on here but he is a jerk. Glad so see that he has gone into permanent hibernation.
ReplyDeleteRadar is starting to fill in. The upper level low is still in Ohio. That will move into Pa which will give us our snow tonight.
ReplyDeleteWell what do ya know, It is snowing! Sorry David, I am at work today and I havent been on until now. I guess I have to hook up when I get home and see what is on the ground tomorrow. For once I hope we dont get anything major for the next two weeks as my truck is undergoing an engine overhaul and a new paint job starting Monday. I still do not see any evidence of anything for next week. Am I missing something??
ReplyDeletenothing but rain makes me wonder if something is controlling the weather
ReplyDeleteJB is running out of time for that apocolyptic storm for the east coast. See not much on the latest model runs. How is the snow tonight going for all?
ReplyDeleteIt's been snowing good here by Charlotte Beach for a few hours now.
ReplyDeleteIs a snowstorm characterized by heavy snow regardless of the amout of accumulation? Sorry if this is a dumb question, but alot of times I see "snowstorm" in a forcast with 3-5 inches. To me, that's just a typical snow fall in Rochester. Maybe someone can clarify for me.
ReplyDeleteWow, this blog sure got quiet quickly. I guess there isn't much to talk about this evening. We have some snow falling down my way but VERY HEAVY FOG too! Gave me a migrain the last 3 miles home trying to find the side of the road. Glad I am home and in my chair!!
ReplyDeleteAbout 2.5" in gates with sleet on top--extremely heavy and nasty. It is about 30 and sleeting (mostly)/ snowing fairly hard at the present.
ReplyDeleteAnother nice mess, really sick of this.
It was coming down hard earlier with only snow in Henrietta when I was at work. When I left at 7:30, the sleet was starting to move in. I am not sure what it is doing now down here but I am about to go outside for a smoke so I will pop back in shortly with an update from Sparta.
ReplyDeleteWell it is coming down HARD! I brought my spot light out and I can barely make out the trees at the end of the driveway through the snow!! Very impressive. I cant wait to see how much is out there in the morning. I am wondering if I should have hooked the plow on when I got home. It is always a pain in the back when you have to lift it higher off the stand to make up for whats on the ground after a snowfall. I am sure Dave or anyone else knows what I mean that plows!
ReplyDeletehaha Hey Chris, did you get my email about hunting?
ReplyDeleteNothing showing on the models except a warm-up after next week. Think winter is finally going to wrap up as our friend the groundhog said. really sad not one snowstorm this whole winter hopefully that changes next winter.
ReplyDeleteYes, no snowstorms are starting to get depressing for us in the southerntier (Dansville/Wayland area) and now the talk of a warm up next week...especially since we just bought a new snowmobile. It's only the beginning of Feb. I will still hold out hope. I just want to go riding, just hope the snow we do have doesn't melt with tomorrows' temperature.
ReplyDeleteIt's not the end of hope, until March...some of our biggest storms come in Feb. and March.
Sorry Ginger signs are not good for the rest of the winter. It will get much warmer after next week and no storms in sight. It will go down as a cold winter with NO BIG snowstorms except the one that would have given us a foot missed us.
ReplyDeleteYou people are starting to sound like the east coasters on a weather forum before last year. Always saying winter is over, everything is a bust and they never get any big storms. I used to laugh at how pathetic they sounded. How's that working out for them now?
ReplyDeleteEvery year is not going to be our year. And frankly this year hasn't been a bust north of the thruway, just not to some of your liking.
No big storms are in sight, but how far can a forecaster see out? Can you tell now that there will be no more storms for the rest of the winter season? Just curious how far out weather can be predicted. Thanks.
ReplyDeleteAbout 5 or 6 inches of new snow last night in Lyons.
ReplyDeleteImpossible to forecast with certainty more than a few days out. The proof is that signs now point to the largest Arctic air staying North late next week. I do see a nice warm up potentially in about 7-12 days. I don't know about you but I would LOVE a 50 degree day.
ReplyDeleteScott
So how can people say we will have no more storms the rest of this season? What do they look at to make this prediction?
ReplyDeleteSure, a 50 degree day would be devine...as long as it's followed by more snow after to replace what's lost :-) I know I know, I bet a lot of you are ready to see it go, I just want to enjoy it a little longer before spring.
One day at a time, we're off to take the family snow sledding and enjoy the snow before it does melt away.
Where is DK? Are you consulting with JB because he was a little off base about that superstrom next Thursday. In fact so off base every model has it OTS and even he has backed off. Can not believe a guy like that even gets paid to do weather. To make statements like he did is incompetent and unprofessional.
ReplyDeleteI can't wait for a warm up, and a really great thunderstorm. What "superstorm" next Thursday??
ReplyDeleteI do see a nice warm up potentially in about 7-12 days. I don't know about you but I would LOVE a 50 degree day.
ReplyDeleteScott
THANK YOU--I hope you are on the mark with this one. I cannot wait to get this garbage melted.
Scott, you don't want anymore snowstorms to forecast!? I'm a skier and would love to keep a decent snowpack around here til at least mid march!
ReplyDeleteAnonymous said...
ReplyDeleteWhere is DK? Are you consulting with JB because he was a little off base about that superstrom next Thursday. In fact so off base every model has it OTS and even he has backed off. Can not believe a guy like that even gets paid to do weather. To make statements like he did is incompetent and unprofessional.
He did exactly what any show man is supposed to do--he got people's attention. It certainly caused quite a stir on this blog and I'll bet the hits on Accuweather went way up. He may not be accurate but he is a very professional con man who probably gets paid very well for all the $$$$ he raise. He does NOT have to be accurate just attract attention. As long as suckers listen (and panic) guys like this will do just fine.
Just think if he forecast sunny and 80 all the time--you think he'd be rich? Hurricanes, super snow, tornadoes whether they are there or not is what keeps the jet fueled--as long as people lap it up it'll go on. Like all "news" men know--it's a show--a little manipulation is a good thing.
It's the American public's fault for putting up with it.
Bman said...
ReplyDeleteScott, you don't want anymore snowstorms to forecast!? I'm a skier and would love to keep a decent snowpack around here til at least mid march!
Melt it--bring on 60.
I'd bet Scott and most of us snow-lovers would like a BIG snowstorm. But my take is that if we're going to continue to get nickel and dimed by every storm, and then get jipped out of the storms that were supposed to be big, then let's just leap into spring.
ReplyDelete