tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post1783164080488027993..comments2024-02-13T03:39:18.616-05:00Comments on News 8 Weather Blog: Ho-hum early December patternNews 8 Weatherhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10107233504909304176noreply@blogger.comBlogger77125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-69044128355522480032014-12-05T12:46:41.152-05:002014-12-05T12:46:41.152-05:00KW is stating we are more likely in play now than ...KW is stating we are more likely in play now than he said yesterday. Models are trending Westerward and it could be a lsow mover whihc could nail someone.Snowdognoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-5559463832563220242014-12-05T12:36:42.816-05:002014-12-05T12:36:42.816-05:00He changed his tune this morning on Twitter. The &...He changed his tune this morning on Twitter. The "near miss" scenario became less of a likelihood.Mantis Tobogganhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11104491137465766315noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-34797467510606030802014-12-05T12:30:25.397-05:002014-12-05T12:30:25.397-05:00And KW is on his snow for Christmas kick... every ...And KW is on his snow for Christmas kick... every year, the same thing about 3 weeks before Christmas... without fail. The pattern will change... snow is coming... Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-48712220850243655902014-12-05T12:26:02.777-05:002014-12-05T12:26:02.777-05:00KW definitely did not sound excited last night on ...KW definitely did not sound excited last night on 10.2. He used words like "near miss."Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-80448666101664003542014-12-05T12:17:49.419-05:002014-12-05T12:17:49.419-05:00Temps might be a tad marginal for that. If the lak...Temps might be a tad marginal for that. If the lake gets involved at all then it would be in the form of some wraparound lake effect IMO.Mantis Tobogganhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11104491137465766315noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-6231457650701241832014-12-05T12:12:05.303-05:002014-12-05T12:12:05.303-05:00Lake enhancement could help as well.Lake enhancement could help as well.Snowdognoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-79932747538882094362014-12-05T11:49:26.850-05:002014-12-05T11:49:26.850-05:00KW is starting to get a little more excited about ...KW is starting to get a little more excited about next week's storm potential. I can't say I blame him, last night's Euro run was a lot more compelling than my earlier post might've let on. The system actually retrogrades back over southeastern NY state for a time, tossing significant snowfall back into WNY. It's impossible to see on any free site due to the 24 hours in between frames, but various forum-goers with access to paid services are saying that it retrogrades. Several Euro ensemble members are also picking up on such an idea. One idea that has become a trend as of late is that of a later arrival time. Originally this was going to be a Sunday night into Monday deal, now we're talking more towards midweek. This helps us out as it allows the Canadian high to progress eastward and shunt the storm more to the west. One of the silver linings to having no Atlantic blocking, since the high would just sit in place and lead to an I-95 special if we had blocking.<br /><br />As I type this, the GGEM heads westbound yet again. Heaviest snow remains east but we still receive a solid hit, precip shield is a lot less compact than previous runs. UKMET is also a touch further west. The trends are now our friends.Mantis Tobogganhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11104491137465766315noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-58701140416807242812014-12-05T11:35:58.303-05:002014-12-05T11:35:58.303-05:00No one wants travel headaches for the holidays, bu...No one wants travel headaches for the holidays, but whatever nature wants to happen will happen. We are ALWAYS on the outside looking in...in a sense ;)Mantis Tobogganhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11104491137465766315noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-37230710873895545752014-12-05T11:19:08.373-05:002014-12-05T11:19:08.373-05:00amen, anon. at 8:39amen, anon. at 8:39Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-56509197250996122082014-12-05T08:39:29.837-05:002014-12-05T08:39:29.837-05:00Though I want a white Christmas, can we keep in mi...Though I want a white Christmas, can we keep in mind those who will be traveling or have family traveling for Christmas. And come up with a new phrase other that "Once again we are on the outside looking in"; but now that I think about it, how many truly complained about not getting the storm that hit Buffalo and dropped 7 feet of snow. Interesting to say the least. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-90713098565285267172014-12-05T07:53:01.533-05:002014-12-05T07:53:01.533-05:00They also mentioned the MJO dying down, but from w...They also mentioned the MJO dying down, but from what I've seen that's the best possible outcome. MJO in El Nino in December never helps. There is also now substantial model support for changes starting Christmas week, I'm guessing those are initiated by the ridge building near the Caspian Sea, which should eventually move east and shift the EPO closer to negative, so whoever typed up that climate discussion wasn't looking hard enough.Mantis Tobogganhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11104491137465766315noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-72186799239506684202014-12-05T07:46:50.358-05:002014-12-05T07:46:50.358-05:00JN is behind the times. Winter will get going near...JN is behind the times. Winter will get going near or before Christmas. Relax.<br /><br />Another tick west on the Euro. Inner weenie is slightly raised.Mantis Tobogganhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11104491137465766315noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-72556229529510938532014-12-05T06:44:32.468-05:002014-12-05T06:44:32.468-05:00Snowdog please stop! At least track the possibilit...Snowdog please stop! At least track the possibility next week. It is okay if it warms up and winter gets going in January.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-63314144270924421912014-12-05T06:41:39.632-05:002014-12-05T06:41:39.632-05:00THE FORCING THAT WILL CHANGE THE PATTERN IS NOT AP...THE FORCING THAT WILL CHANGE THE PATTERN IS NOT APPARENT THROUGH THE NEXT 2 TO 3 WEEKS...SO IT APPEARS WINTER WILL BE ON HOLD FOR AT<br />LEAST MOST OF DECEMBER.<br /><br />This sucks.<br />Snowdognoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-6258878437792240202014-12-05T06:36:15.493-05:002014-12-05T06:36:15.493-05:00JN stated last night that after this NE storm it w...JN stated last night that after this NE storm it warms up substantially through Christmas week. That sucks if it is true.Snowdognoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-32362545748399856902014-12-05T06:04:01.177-05:002014-12-05T06:04:01.177-05:00Just keep an eye to early next week that is all I...Just keep an eye to early next week that is all I am saying and maybe the EURO run last night. That would be to good to be true. Did any one say there will a blizzard in the Flower City within the next 5 days mark it down!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-38167052992683906892014-12-05T00:02:18.250-05:002014-12-05T00:02:18.250-05:00UKMET says wagons west one more time, tracks very ...UKMET says wagons west one more time, tracks very close to the coast and has a very broad surface reflection. GGEM is just doing whatever the hell it wants but it's still close enough to care, much more compact than the UKMET though. GFS is still embarrassingly clueless and has no storm whatsoever, even its crackhead cohort the NAM is much closer to siding with the rest of the guidance. Not staying up for the Euro but my guess is that it ticks ever so slightly west.Mantis Tobogganhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11104491137465766315noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-54759273048372806342014-12-04T23:44:29.626-05:002014-12-04T23:44:29.626-05:00Every MJO phase is bad during El Nino Decembers. I...Every MJO phase is bad during El Nino Decembers. I wouldn't worry about it, especially since the new Euro weekly drops a fresh supply of porn-tier godliness on us beginning December 20th or so. The light at the end of the tunnel grew substantially today.Mantis Tobogganhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11104491137465766315noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-52993076416053664832014-12-04T23:07:17.547-05:002014-12-04T23:07:17.547-05:00Teleconnections are not our friend for the next 2 ...Teleconnections are not our friend for the next 2 weeks and the MJO is scaring me... It may take a while for them to begin to go our way, but when they do, we'll get our fair share of snow.Weatherguynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-21564542371628157542014-12-04T21:42:56.745-05:002014-12-04T21:42:56.745-05:00If you have a FB account I recommend spamming all ...If you have a FB account I recommend spamming all of the News 8 weather team with photos of lewd snow sculptures for every 3-day period that they don't post here.<br /><br />Our storm probably won't have much room to trend too far west since the ensemble spread is pretty tight. A track over NYC would still make things interesting IMO.Mantis Tobogganhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11104491137465766315noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-35013758466992853372014-12-04T21:33:23.464-05:002014-12-04T21:33:23.464-05:00Good thing the pattern we're in isn't near...Good thing the pattern we're in isn't nearly as stable as December 2006, so we won't take until January 20th for the pattern to flip. I recall December 2012 setting the local record for the latest inch of snow in a season...amazing that we still finished near average on snow for the month. All of it came from 3 events in the final 10 days. Then we warmed up again in January but it was followed by two months of cold thanks to one of the largest SSW events on record. That monster nor'easter from February that year remains one of my favorite storms of all time, not because it brought anything special to Rochester but because of how massive the circulation was and all of the hype it generated, plus the meager 4 days of lead time it yielded because only one piece of guidance had any storm at all until early that week. Also I publicly swore that I would eat my left foot if we got the 12 inches of snow that the Euro painted for us because it seemed highly implausible at the time...and we got 13 inches. Needless to say I chickened out of that little wager.Mantis Tobogganhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11104491137465766315noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-87002642721756027402014-12-04T20:23:09.190-05:002014-12-04T20:23:09.190-05:00It's early, but this has been the trend so far...It's early, but this has been the trend so far. We were supposed to take a trip into the blast furnace THIS week, and it never materialized. The T-Day Storm, as you mentioned, was supposed to miss us but drifted west. If we had colder air (normal high for that time of year is 42 F, by the way), that 3 inches would have been double that. Also, I remember two winters ago when we had basically 0" of snow recorded for the entire month of November and first three weeks in December, then BAM. Then, on 12/22, the winds switched, knocked a bunch of tree limbs down and took out some power lines, and we were in the moderately deep freeze for the remainder of the winter with some decent snows (though much more in the form of lake effect than anything else).<br /><br />Similar situation in December 2006.<br /><br />Chris now in Penfieldnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-42722059791286361912014-12-04T18:39:49.006-05:002014-12-04T18:39:49.006-05:00Good thoughts CCCC. I was thinking to myself that ...Good thoughts CCCC. I was thinking to myself that at this range we would want it east so it can trend west, not the other way around. Being in sweet spot right now would most certainly have some jumping by the start of the week as we would watch the storm move away from us. I thoroughly enjoy your posts and am glad you are here since news 8 kind of posts then ditches. I know they have better things to do though.Farmingtonnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-90170793708672990652014-12-04T18:21:56.452-05:002014-12-04T18:21:56.452-05:00We will get 8-12 weeks of solid winter at some poi...We will get 8-12 weeks of solid winter at some point..just like ALMOST every other year..mark it down!!!Caledonianoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-89148346244203067152014-12-04T17:54:26.962-05:002014-12-04T17:54:26.962-05:00Long range time: the latest Euro weekly shows nice...Long range time: the latest Euro weekly shows nice improvements to the pattern for the second half of December starting Christmas week. Additionally the medium range guidance is slowly expanding the tiny light at the end of the torchy tunnel of terror, with more ensemble members starting to sniff the improvements. Speaking of our torch...I'm now pretty certain that any drastic warm departures will only last 2-3 days at most, with most days averaging near to slightly above average. The amplitude of the initial warm departures appears to be dampening, pushing the start of any major warmth closer to the beginning of larger scale reshuffling. I've also read that the surface temps will likely reflect a good deal colder than the 850s would have us believe, although I never got any reasoning for it. Put simply: hold tight for now, there is hope in paradise after all.Mantis Tobogganhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11104491137465766315noreply@blogger.com