tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post210157099098841670..comments2024-02-13T03:39:18.616-05:00Comments on News 8 Weather Blog: AN HISTORIC START TO TODAYNews 8 Weatherhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10107233504909304176noreply@blogger.comBlogger154125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-24715176984041212742014-03-08T17:07:10.308-05:002014-03-08T17:07:10.308-05:00Geez. I keep reading old stuff. Thanks CCC.Geez. I keep reading old stuff. Thanks CCC.Snowdognoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-84990902867171700772014-03-08T17:06:59.412-05:002014-03-08T17:06:59.412-05:0018z GFS not great and the merry-go-round continues...18z GFS not great and the merry-go-round continues. No consensus at all.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-13809826156992255522014-03-08T16:56:51.109-05:002014-03-08T16:56:51.109-05:00That was from last night, before today's 12z m...That was from last night, before today's 12z model runs. Their new discussion mentions "moderate to heavy snow" on Thursday, and their point-n-click for the city of Albany is actually one of the warmer forecasts now.Mantis Tobogganhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11104491137465766315noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-11785549667546844052014-03-08T16:45:32.367-05:002014-03-08T16:45:32.367-05:00There will be a Blizzard within the Flower City wi...There will be a Blizzard within the Flower City within 5 days. Mark it down!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-58774830058346857892014-03-08T16:38:54.497-05:002014-03-08T16:38:54.497-05:00From Albany:
THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE MOVING TO CONS...From Albany:<br /><br />THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE MOVING TO CONSENSUS WITH THE WED/THU STORM<br />WITH SYSTEM WEAKER...FURTHER S AND CONSIDERABLY LESS THREATENING<br />THEN PVS RUNS.<br />Snowdognoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-19116180035583845282014-03-08T16:31:51.677-05:002014-03-08T16:31:51.677-05:00Yeah CCC. I must have looked before they updated t...Yeah CCC. I must have looked before they updated the forecast. It is looking more and more likely that we will be impacted here in Rochester.Snowdognoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-27563818212253787052014-03-08T16:09:39.214-05:002014-03-08T16:09:39.214-05:00The 12Z ECMWF and GFS runs look a lot better than ...The 12Z ECMWF and GFS runs look a lot better than the 00Z. I try not to model hug but it is difficult not to. Hopefully the GFS keeps trending towards a deeper trough and quicker phasing. If the upper level low to the north drops south quick enough to phase in the Ohio valley instead of at or along the coast it would deepen the trough quicker and "buckle" it keeping the storm further NW.HPnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-32702186171600574172014-03-08T16:08:15.336-05:002014-03-08T16:08:15.336-05:00AND FURTHERMORE, a new Hazardous Weather Outlook h...AND FURTHERMORE, a new Hazardous Weather Outlook has been posted containing this paragraph:<br /><br />"AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY THEN TRACK BETWEEN THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS BY WEDNESDAY. THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY PRODUCE A SIGNIFICANT LATE SEASON SNOWFALL FOR PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND NORTHEASTERN STATE. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY IT MAY IMPACT OUR REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER THERE STILL REMAINS A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE EXACT TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM."<br /><br />that'll be all for now ._.Mantis Tobogganhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11104491137465766315noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-69408870833208544562014-03-08T16:05:30.076-05:002014-03-08T16:05:30.076-05:00And now the updated NWS discussion:
"A SURFA...And now the updated NWS discussion:<br /><br />"A SURFACE LOW FORMING IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WILL CROSS THE PLAINS EARLY IN THE WEEK AND MERGE/PHASE WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW BETWEEN THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEYS. THERE IS NOW A MORE NORTHWARD POSITION OF THE SURFACE LOW BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THE NORTHERN FLANK OF THIS LOW PLACING A FAIR AMOUNT OF SNOW ACROSS THE WESTERN TO CENTRAL NY WED MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON. ECMWF AND GFS ARE NOW PRESENTING CATEGORICAL POPS WITH QPF ON THE ORDER OF A HALF INCH OR MORE...YIELDING SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW OVER A 12 TO 18 HOUR PERIOD. THERE ARE SOME 3 TO 6 HOUR DIFFERENCES ON THE TIMING OF THE SURFACE LOW TRACK AND THE CORE OF THE HEAVIEST SNOW...BUT THAT DISCREPANCY WILL RESOLVE ITSELF IN THE NEXT FEW MODEL RUNS."Mantis Tobogganhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11104491137465766315noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-4872055374880742142014-03-08T15:54:35.360-05:002014-03-08T15:54:35.360-05:00The 12z Euro ensemble mean is nearly identical to ...The 12z Euro ensemble mean is nearly identical to the operational Euro regarding track. This has been by far the most reliable guidance suite for the past few days.<br /><br />WPC came out with a statement this morning that opened with this line:<br />"...MODELS HOMING IN ON A MAJOR SNOWSTORM FOR NEW YORK STATE AND NEW ENGLAND..."<br /><br />And as I was making this post the NWS updated my point-n-click forecast to a 60 percent chance of snow for Tuesday night, and 80 percent for Wednesday.Mantis Tobogganhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11104491137465766315noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-10369066282385687142014-03-08T15:48:51.338-05:002014-03-08T15:48:51.338-05:00You are so in need of attention at home. Very path...You are so in need of attention at home. Very pathetic.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-55670592038342785432014-03-08T15:43:13.560-05:002014-03-08T15:43:13.560-05:00I searched in every nook and cranny on the NWS sit...I searched in every nook and cranny on the NWS site, and could not find even a subtle hint that snow was removed from the forecast. The discussion mentioned the 00z guidance being too far south, but said guidance has since moved back north. Not a forecast anyway per se. So my guess is that you're misinterpreting something or looking at the wrong thing.Mantis Tobogganhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11104491137465766315noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-86663918126204550282014-03-08T15:29:36.617-05:002014-03-08T15:29:36.617-05:00The NWS out of Buffalo removed the Hazardous outlo...The NWS out of Buffalo removed the Hazardous outlook and now has no snow for Wednesday or Thursday.Snowdognoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-25634756297108839792014-03-08T14:34:03.350-05:002014-03-08T14:34:03.350-05:00To be fair I did voice a preference regarding what...To be fair I did voice a preference regarding what scenario I believe will transpire, and if people recall correctly it did not involve a direct hit for Rochester (but not a total whiff either). I'm sticking to it until I see a reason to yield, and right now I see no reason whatsoever. Seems like there might actually be some limited convergence towards that idea happening, but there's still so much fluidity in the situation that it can't be anything beyond "limited."Mantis Tobogganhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11104491137465766315noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-1406606232670513602014-03-08T14:20:48.005-05:002014-03-08T14:20:48.005-05:00haha I was right about being hung over... LOL.
An...haha I was right about being hung over... LOL.<br /><br />Anyway, no reason to run and hide because you haven't forecast that we will or won't get something. You're simply stating what you see on the models. And may of us appreciate it very much!<br /><br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-41267292367826551062014-03-08T14:16:56.504-05:002014-03-08T14:16:56.504-05:00CCCC, I'm guessing you aren't here much on...CCCC, I'm guessing you aren't here much on the weekend because you are busy or possibly hung over :)<br /><br />These anonymous posters can knock themselves out by posting nonsensical predictions and model interpretations, but we all know the forecast of an anonymous poster is completely useless and not even worth reading.<br /><br /><br /><br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-5512750983498106412014-03-08T14:12:35.692-05:002014-03-08T14:12:35.692-05:00Let me tell you, everything you might've heard...Let me tell you, everything you might've heard about FourLoko is unabashedly true. That stuff is a horrendous devil mixture of liquid jolly ranchers and gasoline. 0/10 would not recommend.<br /><br />Anyway back to weather...the 12z Euro is indeed an excellent hit for us. Well over a foot of snow regionwide coupled with strong gusty winds. The GFS is rather close to the Euro in track but not as strong or snowy, still a decent hit though with 6+ inches. Its ensemble mean is a bit more southerly with a ton of spread. The GGEM is having more wild mood swings than a pregnant teenager, so let's just keep it out of the discussion until it can find some more consistency. And the UKMET continues to be suppressed and lame. One trend I've noticed with the Euro is that its 00z runs tend to produce weaker and more southerly solutions, while the 12z runs are stronger and further north. Just a point of interest.<br /><br />Oh and if I end up having to cave on this storm I won't simply run off and hide like a coward, I'll come here and admit it. Still, don't expect me to be around much until tomorrow afternoon, regardless of how things evolve tonight.Mantis Tobogganhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11104491137465766315noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-346188151855554072014-03-08T14:10:41.772-05:002014-03-08T14:10:41.772-05:00It's waaayyy past time that we ignore anyone p...It's waaayyy past time that we ignore anyone posting predictions or model interpretations as anonymous.<br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-15351642832684124362014-03-08T14:03:59.454-05:002014-03-08T14:03:59.454-05:00I had hoped people would notice the trend of me no...I had hoped people would notice the trend of me not posting here much on weekends...Mantis Tobogganhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11104491137465766315noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-33893511372290414462014-03-08T13:29:06.745-05:002014-03-08T13:29:06.745-05:00Think what you saw Anon 1:20 is wrong. Not an expe...Think what you saw Anon 1:20 is wrong. Not an expert but BIG run on 12z EURO. I expect all should get ready for CCCC to post and like what he saw?Bnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-18016630894460587182014-03-08T13:23:12.196-05:002014-03-08T13:23:12.196-05:00Too far south and east like Snowdog has said it wo...Too far south and east like Snowdog has said it would be I believe.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-14126045358124783982014-03-08T13:20:47.833-05:002014-03-08T13:20:47.833-05:0012z EURO not good pack it in can you say spring ti...12z EURO not good pack it in can you say spring time?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-24829968529968319942014-03-08T12:56:45.437-05:002014-03-08T12:56:45.437-05:00Very telling 4 X C has not posted since 6:00pm las...Very telling 4 X C has not posted since 6:00pm last night. Think he may have come to his senses that he is wrong about this potential like he was before the storm last weekend.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-7898237875639772482014-03-08T12:35:09.554-05:002014-03-08T12:35:09.554-05:00We are still in the game for significant snowfall....We are still in the game for significant snowfall. It trended worse on the EMCWF, but a MUCH better trend on the 12Z GFS. Putting ANY faith in a forecast at this distance would be foolish. Trending and going to happen are much different. The ONLY guarantee is that track and strength of LP will change further on upcoming model runs. HPnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-35145943140701786932014-03-08T12:29:43.369-05:002014-03-08T12:29:43.369-05:00Well our local mets think nothing is coming. The 7...Well our local mets think nothing is coming. The 7 day on this site has light snow. The most interesting one is News 10 website now has their heavier snow icon on their 7 day for Friday and nothing Wednesday?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com