tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post2218162134500345478..comments2024-02-13T03:39:18.616-05:00Comments on News 8 Weather Blog: A WEEKEND WASHOUTNews 8 Weatherhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10107233504909304176noreply@blogger.comBlogger170125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-11427341567295481742015-08-14T12:34:25.074-04:002015-08-14T12:34:25.074-04:00I wouldn't be leaving mini essays all over the...I wouldn't be leaving mini essays all over the place in these comments if it really was as simple as you're implying.Mantis Tobogganhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11104491137465766315noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-89510734386656931792015-08-13T21:29:08.600-04:002015-08-13T21:29:08.600-04:00As C4 has been saying, there is a strongly negativ...As C4 has been saying, there is a strongly negative EPO likely to be a factor…which has led to our past two harsh winters…in keeping the El Nino in check. 1997 was a year where there was a strong El Nino but not a negative EPO to keep the El Nino from over influencing the weather, at least east of the Mississippi.Chris now in Penfieldnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-22030912427466682252015-08-13T21:07:05.227-04:002015-08-13T21:07:05.227-04:00Not good for snow lovers if it is a strong El Nino...Not good for snow lovers if it is a strong El Nino. This means a mild winter with below normal snowfall. Since they are predicating the strongest El Nino ever it could be the worst winter ever if you like snow and cold.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-30334339175798397582015-08-13T20:48:44.999-04:002015-08-13T20:48:44.999-04:00Just read where the El Nino is predicted to possib...Just read where the El Nino is predicted to possibly the strongest ever. Stronger than it was in 1997. If that is the case does that mean we would have mild temperatures and less snow this winter? Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-81857160560578910222015-08-12T13:11:41.378-04:002015-08-12T13:11:41.378-04:00Accuweather released an early forecast for fall an...Accuweather released an early forecast for fall and winter today:<br /><br />http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/2015-us-fall-forecast-winter-preview/51471589<br /><br />I haven't been looking too much into the upcoming fall so I don't have an opinion there. Their winter outlook is pretty close to my current thoughts, at least as it pertains to the eastern states. I would've laid out the potential for at least one extended mild period though.<br /><br />The NMME and JAMSTEC both updated recently. The latter resembles the seasonal Euro for winter, with the N.Pac still very warm and favoring a negative EPO. The former is somewhat milder with a more diminished warm pool compared to the latter, but has stronger hints of an active coastal storm track. Neither model suggests much in the way of extreme cold or warmth overall, at least on a monthly time scale. Bear in mind that monthly/seasonal models rarely have a completely accurate handle on things until about 2-4 weeks in advance. The most we can hope to glean from them right now is a vague set of ideas.Mantis Tobogganhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11104491137465766315noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-57886827659527646402015-08-11T12:38:51.687-04:002015-08-11T12:38:51.687-04:00If we're the bullseye for rain all the time th...If we're the bullseye for rain all the time then explain this:<br /><br />http://directory.nyskiblog.com/file/n5001463/New-York-State-Annual-Average-Precipitation.jpg<br /><br />"If its snow it is usually not the case."<br /><br />We shouldn't expect it to be. No one anywhere should.Mantis Tobogganhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11104491137465766315noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-88561094488919274532015-08-11T06:43:54.878-04:002015-08-11T06:43:54.878-04:00Almost 4 inches of water in my rain gauge in Lyons...Almost 4 inches of water in my rain gauge in Lyons. Two inches of that fell in about an hours time yesterday afternoon around 5 o'clock. Sal in Lyonsnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-75845359370401575972015-08-11T06:01:31.760-04:002015-08-11T06:01:31.760-04:00Buffalo barely got anything as well as Syracuse. W...Buffalo barely got anything as well as Syracuse. We seem to be the bullseye for rain all the time. If its snow it is usually not the case.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-58901755038657358382015-08-10T23:16:14.873-04:002015-08-10T23:16:14.873-04:00We've gotten 2.21 inches of rain so far in a s...We've gotten 2.21 inches of rain so far in a span of 9 hours. Ordinarily that would be enough for a new daily record, but this date's 3.31 inch milestone is probably safe for a long time to come.Mantis Tobogganhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11104491137465766315noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-16075098354393923472015-08-10T12:35:34.115-04:002015-08-10T12:35:34.115-04:00http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/d12_fill.gif?1439...http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/d12_fill.gif?1439224509680Mantis Tobogganhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11104491137465766315noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-66301714759399652782015-08-10T07:03:38.703-04:002015-08-10T07:03:38.703-04:00It has been so nice only cutting the grass once pe...It has been so nice only cutting the grass once per week.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-67502877213570497142015-08-09T21:20:08.231-04:002015-08-09T21:20:08.231-04:00Thankfully we have enough dry soil to absorb most ...Thankfully we have enough dry soil to absorb most of the rainfall. Very unlikely that we dodge it entirely.Mantis Tobogganhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11104491137465766315noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-10225912781348377012015-08-09T20:25:03.904-04:002015-08-09T20:25:03.904-04:00Hope the heavy rain stays away from Rochester.Hope the heavy rain stays away from Rochester.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-57115252318466343982015-08-09T11:14:20.766-04:002015-08-09T11:14:20.766-04:00The updated Euro seasonal run came in yesterday. S...The updated Euro seasonal run came in yesterday. Still has a negative EPO for winter with above average precip running up the eastern seaboard. Also weakens the N.Pac warm pool noticeably less than the other seasonals. Still waiting on NMME to update.Mantis Tobogganhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11104491137465766315noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-41230095393583870612015-08-09T11:05:20.824-04:002015-08-09T11:05:20.824-04:00IDK about any of the local forecasts but the NWS n...IDK about any of the local forecasts but the NWS never forecasted a sunny day yesterday. It was still a decent day regardless.Mantis Tobogganhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11104491137465766315noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-24743388554223645372015-08-08T21:40:53.462-04:002015-08-08T21:40:53.462-04:00What happened to the beautiful sunny day we were s...What happened to the beautiful sunny day we were supposed to have today???? It was cloudy all day long.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-65318156563567496732015-08-06T21:09:33.330-04:002015-08-06T21:09:33.330-04:00I looked into the supposed summertime AO correlati...I looked into the supposed summertime AO correlation, and I now trust it even less than before. There's a correlation for sure, but it's weak at best. I can only assume the same for the NAO.Mantis Tobogganhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11104491137465766315noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-86326256144905876382015-08-06T12:41:29.525-04:002015-08-06T12:41:29.525-04:00I'm not getting mad though mang.I'm not getting mad though mang.Mantis Tobogganhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11104491137465766315noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-73164983089629078112015-08-06T10:43:08.046-04:002015-08-06T10:43:08.046-04:00Responding to a comment that was not directed at y...Responding to a comment that was not directed at you is a 'waste of energy'.......Carol Cheryl Cristal Cherlene....lmfaoDJDhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07981695413965917043noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-36280596322652783772015-08-05T21:27:09.813-04:002015-08-05T21:27:09.813-04:00I'll say this much though: both the NAO and th...I'll say this much though: both the NAO and the AO were very negative in July relative to average values, some of the most negative values on record in fact. I've seen assertions that when those values are this negative in July, they correspond to negative ones in the winter as well. I have yet to see any scientific rationale behind what might cause that so I'm not willing to trust it completely, but it could toss another wrench into the standard "El Nino = warm winter" idea that we would normally see.<br /><br />I sort of resent that fact that we still have such a long road ahead...Mantis Tobogganhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11104491137465766315noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-76579875762101085262015-08-05T21:14:10.142-04:002015-08-05T21:14:10.142-04:00Nothing reliable. It's been hypothesized that ...Nothing reliable. It's been hypothesized that having a lot of warm water off of southern Greenland helps to promote a negative NAO, but that correlation isn't nearly as strong as the PDO/EPO relationship. Even the SAI isn't completely dependable, as last winter demonstrated. The near record amount of snowcover growth across Siberia was supposed to favor a negative NAO, but instead it was positive almost all winter. The AO is a tough one to nail down as well. Those two factors will be our biggest wildcards once the fate of El Nino and the PDO have been determined.Mantis Tobogganhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11104491137465766315noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-89759063648083857572015-08-05T20:59:48.591-04:002015-08-05T20:59:48.591-04:00#triggered#triggeredMantis Tobogganhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11104491137465766315noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-27330997891956870262015-08-05T20:36:31.174-04:002015-08-05T20:36:31.174-04:00I don't suppose we have a method for trying to... I don't suppose we have a method for trying to predict the NAO? At least not seasonally? Caledonianoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-83752263270368068902015-08-05T20:25:02.112-04:002015-08-05T20:25:02.112-04:00"Carol never saw this coming…foot long wiener..."Carol never saw this coming…foot long wieners!!!…why do we even have meteorologists?!?; they never predicted this pool effect!…Hey CCCC, do you think it will rain on April 19 at 7:37pm because my cousin's former roommate is flying in from Saskatchewan…MARK IT DOWN…take it to the bank…KW said he was getting his snowmaking machine out…JN is an alarmist…GJ has a new tie…" Chris now in Penfieldnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-2368987759791085662015-08-05T18:30:25.396-04:002015-08-05T18:30:25.396-04:00Getting mad at the computer screen is a waste of e...Getting mad at the computer screen is a waste of energy.Mantis Tobogganhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11104491137465766315noreply@blogger.com