tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post2400098162347521703..comments2024-02-13T03:39:18.616-05:00Comments on News 8 Weather Blog: WINDY & RAINY THROUGH TONIGHTNews 8 Weatherhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10107233504909304176noreply@blogger.comBlogger71125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-91040216414292203072014-04-14T13:38:36.183-04:002014-04-14T13:38:36.183-04:00I believe that Scott was referring to is the hugh ...I believe that Scott was referring to is the hugh drop in temperature from almost 80 to 30-40 degrees on Tuesday. Don't know about you, Anon 3:56 that is a HUGE change in Tuesday's forecast. I don't think Scott was doing this for rating purposes either. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-51986061269622000852014-04-13T18:08:41.697-04:002014-04-13T18:08:41.697-04:00T-shirts and shorts Monday afternoon to winter coa...T-shirts and shorts Monday afternoon to winter coats and hats Tuesday night. I'm not even mad, that's pretty incredible.Mantis Tobogganhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11104491137465766315noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-46511110788125508592014-04-13T17:56:20.346-04:002014-04-13T17:56:20.346-04:00"Huge changes" as in high temps in the l..."Huge changes" as in high temps in the low 40s as opposed to low 80s. And "a small slushy accumulation" of snow, which (alluding to the above anonymous poster) would require a lot more than 10 flakes to accomplish.Mantis Tobogganhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11104491137465766315noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-63889031928600615982014-04-13T17:53:52.918-04:002014-04-13T17:53:52.918-04:00>getting you weather info from bloggers instead...>getting you weather info from bloggers instead of trained professionals<br /><br />top lolz m8Mantis Tobogganhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11104491137465766315noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-36949405626962132792014-04-13T16:06:27.378-04:002014-04-13T16:06:27.378-04:00That is how it is written HUGE and yet Scott on hi...That is how it is written HUGE and yet Scott on his twitter an hour ago said snow very little Tuesday. That was an hour ago while 20 mins ago News 8 tweets HUGE changes?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-26015045251257831942014-04-13T15:56:39.158-04:002014-04-13T15:56:39.158-04:00Ha ha News 8 tweet our chief meteorologist Scott H...Ha ha News 8 tweet our chief meteorologist Scott Hetsko has HUGE changes in his Tuesday forecast please tune into tonight's news 8 news. Anything for ratings what are we getting 10 wet flakes instead of 5? All we need to do is tune into the great CCCC for what we need.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-48312233700177591322014-04-13T15:56:03.597-04:002014-04-13T15:56:03.597-04:00A little bit, maybe.A little bit, maybe.Mantis Tobogganhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11104491137465766315noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-18618791576194518092014-04-13T14:54:23.893-04:002014-04-13T14:54:23.893-04:00Could there be freezing rain Tuesday night?Could there be freezing rain Tuesday night?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-80358318112279160402014-04-13T14:54:18.101-04:002014-04-13T14:54:18.101-04:00If there's any "hope" I'm clingi...If there's any "hope" I'm clinging to it's that the front somehow stays west and we remain warm for the next 6 months. Your ire in that respect is painfully misguided.<br /><br />Ad nauseum, NWS discussion:<br />"A COATING OF SNOW IS LIKELY WESTERN SECTIONS...TO A FEW INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE NORTH COUNTRY."<br /><br />WPC Accumulation by Percentile (50th percentile, the most likely outcome according to them):<br />http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pwpf_24hr/prb_24hsnow_50prcntil_2014041312f060.gif<br /><br />One thing I will give you is that the GFS is showing a bit less snowfall than in previous runs, but from what I can tell so far it's not representative of a trend (yet). Other guidance shows no such shift.<br /><br />"I love people like you that continue to post on here like your some meteorologist that knows something..."<br /><br />And I love people like you that seem to revel in provoking and taunting, contributing nothing useful while hiding behind the shroud of anonymity. Fits the prototype for a troll quite nicely actually. I'm not a meteorologist, but I'll tell you why I post like I know something: because I do know something. More than something, quite a bit actually, as do some others here (and obviously the News 8 people who trump us all in a big way). And it's not even like I've given any personal outlook on this particular event, it's mostly been some models and outlooks from professionals. I've merely been a messenger. So your ire is not only misguided, it's also aimed at the wrong target.<br /><br />"...fabricates the truth!"<br /><br />I have an extra credit assignment for you: explain in 200 words or less how posting model outputs and expert analyses could constitute "fabricating the truth." Due on Monday by the end of 5th period, worth 5 bonus points on your next test and a revocation of the two weeks of detention you earned for flashing Stephanie in the hallway on Friday. Good luck :)Mantis Tobogganhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11104491137465766315noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-25239529258503583042014-04-13T10:23:52.445-04:002014-04-13T10:23:52.445-04:00They flip flop more than any other station , Roche...They flip flop more than any other station , Rochester's most innaccurate forecast 5 years in the running now!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-72510110434390783092014-04-13T10:22:29.408-04:002014-04-13T10:22:29.408-04:00lol your still trying to cling on to hope eh? give...lol your still trying to cling on to hope eh? give it up it's OVER. I love people like you that continue to post on here like your some meteorologist that knows something , informative and fabricates the truth! Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-23644827115226541752014-04-12T22:12:34.140-04:002014-04-12T22:12:34.140-04:00Nice try buckaroo:
http://meteocentre.com/models/...Nice try buckaroo:<br /><br />http://meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_12/accum/SN_000-120_0000.gif<br />http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014041218&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=117<br />http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index.php?YMD=20140412&RT=21&PRM=Total-SNO&SID=ROC&INC=ALL&NNC=&max=&min=&mZOOM=7&mLAT=42.3948150823389&mLON=-78.79436171875&mTYP=roadmap<br /><br />I'm going to hazard a guess that you didn't actually look at any model runs, and are simply trying to antagonize.<br /><br />WPC probability for 4+ inches of snow for Day 3 (Tuesday):<br /><br />http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day3_psnow_gt_04.gif<br /><br />They also place our region under a 60% probability for at least an inch of snow accumulation. Keep in mind that these probabilities tend to increase for the main target regions the closer an event gets. The 50th percentile of their Accumulation by Percentile also indicates a few inches of snow accumulation, even at lower elevations. The 50th percentile would represent the most likely outcome according to their current thinking.<br /><br />NWS discussion:<br /><br />"A COATING TO ISOLATED AREAS WITH A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AS ARCTIC AIR SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION AND TEMPERATURES PLUMMET THROUGH THE DAY DOWN TO THE 30S ON TUESDAY."<br /><br />Somewhat more optimistic but the general theme is the same: there is STILL the risk for a minor accumulating snowfall on Tuesday, despite certain chuckleheads repeatedly claiming that it's gone. When it comes to things like this facts supersede personal desires every single time. And lord knows every single one of us would love it if the facts were different.Mantis Tobogganhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11104491137465766315noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-75587084871536564652014-04-12T18:07:55.053-04:002014-04-12T18:07:55.053-04:00You know what the most recent model runs are showi...You know what the most recent model runs are showing? Yes you got it NOTHING! Love warm air and spring.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-88592669716967956622014-04-12T12:27:46.510-04:002014-04-12T12:27:46.510-04:00And for the record, anyone who says I'm trying...And for the record, anyone who says I'm trying to wishcast my way into getting snow is flat out wrong. I'd gladly take Sunday's forecast every day until late October, but the reality is that some accumulating snow is indeed POSSIBLE for Tuesday.Mantis Tobogganhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11104491137465766315noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-4661403163478868332014-04-12T12:24:43.363-04:002014-04-12T12:24:43.363-04:00NWS discussion:
"MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD A...NWS discussion:<br /><br />"MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL TAKE ON ANAFRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS AS WARM AIR AHEAD OF THE FRONT RIDES UP THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PROPER...AND WITH SUCH COLD AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT THIS MAY LEAD TO A PERIOD OF SNOWFALL AS THE BACK EDGE OF THE FRONT CROSSES THE AREA FROM EARLY TUESDAY MORNING ONWARDS. A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AS ARCTIC AIR SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION AND TEMPERATURES PLUMMET INTO THE 30S ON TUESDAY."<br /><br />Read that again:<br /><br />"A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION..."<br /><br />Yes we all know spring is here and it's April and yadda yadda. On April 17th 2007 some regions in the Northeast had to shovel over a foot of "spring" out of their driveways. Obviously this won't be remotely close to the same situation, but I hope you see my point.Mantis Tobogganhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11104491137465766315noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-92224295645962680972014-04-12T12:19:24.767-04:002014-04-12T12:19:24.767-04:00Find where I put "heavy snow" out there ...Find where I put "heavy snow" out there for this storm. Hint: I never did. Not once. "It's April" is also a poor justification, and anyway my point was that people have been this convictive in the past only to have their confidence strewn right back into their faces when they turned out to be wrong.<br /><br />And do tell me how this:<br /><br />"GIVEN MODEL DIFFERENCES FROM RUN TO RUN AND BETWEEN VARIOUS MODEL SUITES...IT WILL STILL BE SEVERAL DAYS BEFORE THIS BECOMES MORE APPARENT."<br /><br />...and this:<br /><br />"ONE OF THE MOST CHALLENGING ASPECTS OF THE WHOLE EVENT CONTINUES TO BE WHERE AND HOW MUCH SNOW FALLS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT IN THE EAST."<br /><br />...aren't leaning towards uncertainty? Granted they're from yesterday, but they hardly represent a high degree of confidence.Mantis Tobogganhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11104491137465766315noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-52304502185362857612014-04-12T11:07:34.067-04:002014-04-12T11:07:34.067-04:00Can you also remember the late March winter storm ...Can you also remember the late March winter storm we had. it was only to be 3-5 inches of snow, and it turned out to 6 to 9+ inches of wet heavy snow. I remember posting about this and what others were seeing and hearing. The response from one blogger was that "I was crazy, and would be shoveling my own crap in the morning not snow". Nice huh.<br /><br />If the rain changes over to snow, there is that possibiliy that the snow will be wet and heavy, and several inches -- one never knows especially with the winter we have had this year. CCCC is someone who likes to share his opinions, along with HP, Weatherguy, and others. I for one appreciate the posting by this bloggers as it gives a different point of view and opinion. Again, they do not claim to be "experts" in the field, but people who love looking at weather maps and charts, and like to share their passion with others. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-21820925123037048702014-04-12T10:31:28.608-04:002014-04-12T10:31:28.608-04:00What a surprise EURO and all models do not show an...What a surprise EURO and all models do not show any snow for Tuesday/Wednesday? Hello it is mid April and think I said NBD and people get angry. Sorry CCCC stop posting false potential when we all know spring is here and it may be 80 Monday.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-47039924073570762912014-04-12T08:43:08.056-04:002014-04-12T08:43:08.056-04:00Really CCCC you are putting the words out there li...Really CCCC you are putting the words out there like" heavy snow" and "leaning towards" well the "heavy snow" you mention was in late November not late April? Plus I see no local Met "leaning towards" waiting longer before biting on anything. They say possible change over to wet snow FLURRIES not a peep about HEAVY wet snow as a possibility. Stop it please and move on to spring get out of your college dorm and have a cookout please. The heavy studying may be getting to you?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-26490614544559743752014-04-11T22:02:56.826-04:002014-04-11T22:02:56.826-04:00You don't have to "buy it" to consid...You don't have to "buy it" to consider it to be a possibility. Make sure to learn from those who kept calling something a done deal only to be wrong in the end, like nearly everyone before the Thanksgiving storm. Remember how so many people thought it would go out to sea for sure only to have it slide up the coast and deliver heavy snow, and that was with more model agreement than what we have now. And consider that many professionals are currently leaning towards waiting longer before biting on any given scenario, which should be enough on its own to discourage any degree of conviction. Simply put, "not buying it" is a very poor justification for being certain of any given scenario.Mantis Tobogganhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11104491137465766315noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-36923121874057917952014-04-11T21:40:17.669-04:002014-04-11T21:40:17.669-04:00Still not buying any accumulating snow. Sorry CCCC...Still not buying any accumulating snow. Sorry CCCC it is donedeal.com.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-87454183093160870292014-04-11T18:42:16.508-04:002014-04-11T18:42:16.508-04:00Could not agree with you more. Could not agree with you more. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-3191058404198245412014-04-11T16:41:43.827-04:002014-04-11T16:41:43.827-04:00http://www.rochesterhomepage.net/forecast
High of...http://www.rochesterhomepage.net/forecast<br /><br />High of 76 on Monday is what it says.Mantis Tobogganhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11104491137465766315noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-64355087234470730572014-04-11T16:38:56.172-04:002014-04-11T16:38:56.172-04:00So I guess posting a blurb from a NWS discussion d...So I guess posting a blurb from a NWS discussion doesn't count as "clear reasoning" huh...<br /><br />Oh hey guess what:<br /><br />"AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES SLOWLY THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT COOLER AIR WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST. THE FRONT WILL BECOME MORE AND MORE ANABATIC IN NATURE OVERNIGHT AS THE STRONGEST UPPER LEVEL FORCING COMES TOGETHER BEHIND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT...AND ONE OR MORE SUBTLE WAVES DEVELOP ALONG THE ADVANCING FRONTAL ZONE. THIS WILL LEAVE PLENTY OF RAIN ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE FRONT...WHICH WILL LINGER RIGHT THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. THE AIRMASS MAY BECOME COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A CHANGE TO WET SNOW BY TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS WESTERN NY...WITH SNOW CHANCES SPREADING TO THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION BY TUESDAY EVENING AS COLDER AIR FILTERS EAST. THE PRECISE TIMING OF VARIOUS FRONTAL WAVES AND THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD AIR WILL DECIDE WHETHER THERE WILL JUST BE WET FLAKES IN THE AIR...OR WHETHER SOME ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE. GIVEN MODEL DIFFERENCES FROM RUN TO RUN AND BETWEEN VARIOUS MODEL SUITES...IT WILL STILL BE SEVERAL DAYS BEFORE THIS BECOMES MORE APPARENT."<br /><br />And from the WPC:<br /><br />"ONE OF THE MOST CHALLENGING ASPECTS OF THE WHOLE EVENT CONTINUES TO BE WHERE AND HOW MUCH SNOW FALLS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT IN THE EAST. MANY ENSEMBLE MEMBERS--AS WELL AS A FEW OPERATIONAL MODELS--SHOW SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ASTRIDE THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN APPALACHIANS, WITH EVEN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS FROM THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT TO NEW ENGLAND APPARENTLY NOT OUT OF THE SNOW WOODS YET THIS PROTRACTED COLD SEASON."<br /><br />Analysis from two expert professional organizations is about as close to "clear reasoning" as one can get. And hey look at that, we still might have an accumulating snowfall to deal with, MAYBE, depending on how the front behaves. So pardon my french but people need to STFU about this being a done deal.Mantis Tobogganhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11104491137465766315noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-67796828562206157352014-04-11T14:56:17.252-04:002014-04-11T14:56:17.252-04:00Yeah CCCC!Yeah CCCC!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com