tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post2431844351841269833..comments2024-02-13T03:39:18.616-05:00Comments on News 8 Weather Blog: FLOOD WATCH FOR SATURDAY - SUNDAY MORNINGNews 8 Weatherhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10107233504909304176noreply@blogger.comBlogger57125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-62964744082670040752014-01-14T13:18:39.995-05:002014-01-14T13:18:39.995-05:00The robin I saw and heard in my neighbor's tre...The robin I saw and heard in my neighbor's tree on Monday morning.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-91983073187579859012014-01-14T07:25:48.615-05:002014-01-14T07:25:48.615-05:00I would love a fresh post from the news 8 team on ...I would love a fresh post from the news 8 team on a regular basis. But, as my Father always used to say, "Want in one hand and shit in the other to see what you get first"....Chrisnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-26210493908623220442014-01-14T07:25:12.697-05:002014-01-14T07:25:12.697-05:00It does feel like spring over the last several day...It does feel like spring over the last several days but the cold will return. Not much snow but definately the cold.Snowdognoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-70337793447728126512014-01-14T00:08:51.890-05:002014-01-14T00:08:51.890-05:00Wow take a chill pill O___o it's been less tha...Wow take a chill pill O___o it's been less than a week since we had brutally cold wind chills regionwide and a blizzard just to our west. Winter will return by late this week and be fully entrenched by later this month, just have a little patience.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-57520116371370399572014-01-13T23:55:02.143-05:002014-01-13T23:55:02.143-05:00I want my snowstorms back. This pattern really suc...I want my snowstorms back. This pattern really sucks. BOOOOOORRRRRRIIIIIIIIIIIIIIINGGGGGGGGGGGGG!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!<br /><br />WHERE THE HECK DID WINTER GO??Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-62899204191676347462014-01-13T22:25:28.646-05:002014-01-13T22:25:28.646-05:00From CPC regarding the 8-14 day period:
"TOD...From CPC regarding the 8-14 day period:<br /><br />"TODAY’S WEEK-2 500-HPA HEIGHT MANUAL BLEND SUGGESTS A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS THAN IN THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD; THIS IS A RARE OCCURRENCE, CONSIDERING THE AMPLITUDE OF THE PATTERN IN THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD AND THE USUAL INCREASE IN MODEL UNCERTAINTY AT LONGER LEADS TIMES. THIS SUGGESTS A SUBSTANTIAL SUBSEASONAL CLIMATE EVENT IS FORECAST TO UNFOLD ACROSS THE CONUS, WITH THE MEAN 500-HPA RIDGE FORECAST TO RETURN TO WHAT HAS BEEN ITS FAVORED POSITION OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF MONTHS: THE FAR NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC. THE DAILY PROGRESSION OF BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS FROM DAYS 10 TO 15 IS IMPRESSIVE, WITH THE HIGH-AMPLITUDE RIDGE/TROUGH SYSTEM FORECAST TO SLOWLY RETROGRADE."<br /><br />This is definitely interesting considering that the pattern depicted in the 8-14 day period is typically less amplified rather than more, due to uncertainty and smoothing of ensemble means. Yet here we see an increase in forecasted flow amplification from the 6-10 day period. Amplified patterns tend to be good for storminess, and during this time we are forecasted to be on the cold side of the pattern. Confidence in this outlook is indicated as 4 out of 5 (above average) with the only real uncertainty being the temp departure in the central US.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-42579680301239296812014-01-13T16:10:51.422-05:002014-01-13T16:10:51.422-05:00I would set the odds of the rest of winter being c...I would set the odds of the rest of winter being calm at between 0 and 1 percent based on the whopping zero signs of such a thing happening. Scott even tweeted an hour ago that the second half of January looks "snowy in #roc in general." Here is his outlook for the 2 week period from the 17th onward:<br /><br />https://twitter.com/scotthetsko/status/422820326829850624/photo/1/large<br /><br />Notice that he set the "big storm" bar to Low. This does NOT necessarily indicate a calm pattern as we do NOT need big storms to have an active pattern. Notice also how he set the "cold air" bar at Medium to High. So anyone yapping about a "calm warmer rest of the winter" can kindly shut the %$&# up for at least a few weeks.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-15957496372564175032014-01-13T14:01:43.255-05:002014-01-13T14:01:43.255-05:00Name the signs..Name the signs..Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-52179882466201527282014-01-13T12:28:50.514-05:002014-01-13T12:28:50.514-05:00We are only 9" above normal for snow for the ...We are only 9" above normal for snow for the year now. It started so active with storms and now we are in a non-active period. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-37813942394053125672014-01-13T11:40:17.703-05:002014-01-13T11:40:17.703-05:00Really boring stuff on models short and long term....Really boring stuff on models short and long term.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-62579682049556822992014-01-13T06:33:59.141-05:002014-01-13T06:33:59.141-05:00You are correct Snowdog and next week and beyond l...You are correct Snowdog and next week and beyond looks quiet too. We had a hard early winter and signs are pointing to a calm warmer rest of the winter.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-85478126451016873722014-01-13T06:26:41.689-05:002014-01-13T06:26:41.689-05:00As I have been saying. I do not see much snow in t...As I have been saying. I do not see much snow in the forecast this week. Just very light snow from clippers and lake effect after that. These clippers are going to move North and West of us which is not good placement for us. The lake effect will probably come on a West to SW wind not affecting the greater Rochester area. Next week and beyond may get more active. Otherwise I think bare ground will rule the roost this week.Snowdognoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-45070607787796979922014-01-12T21:23:37.463-05:002014-01-12T21:23:37.463-05:00I think an inch by Friday is more than do-able.I think an inch by Friday is more than do-able.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-72273087788839352742014-01-12T21:16:13.087-05:002014-01-12T21:16:13.087-05:00We will have to wait and see how much snow we will...We will have to wait and see how much snow we will get. Track and intensity of multiple clippers in the coming week will dictate our accumulation. To say for CERTAIN one way or the other makes ZERO sense at this point. HPnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-69273198689307262432014-01-12T20:43:52.195-05:002014-01-12T20:43:52.195-05:00One inch can whiten up the lawn and we will be luc...One inch can whiten up the lawn and we will be lucky to get that much by Friday looking at the models.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-55875268872692458402014-01-12T19:54:46.685-05:002014-01-12T19:54:46.685-05:00Everyone's lawn will be white by Friday at the...Everyone's lawn will be white by Friday at the latest!Weatherguynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-45974617061724898322014-01-12T19:13:00.433-05:002014-01-12T19:13:00.433-05:00Have you ever considered posting as "Analogou...Have you ever considered posting as "Analogous" rather than "Anonymous"?Chris now in Penfieldnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-60929741965359421952014-01-12T18:40:07.131-05:002014-01-12T18:40:07.131-05:00I'm not concerned in the slightest about any u...I'm not concerned in the slightest about any upcoming "boring" stretch. It's been a very active pattern for more than a month, so we were bound to see an extended (8-10 day) quieter period at some point. I say we simply bide our time while winter reloads.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-37596460039302942182014-01-12T18:36:19.545-05:002014-01-12T18:36:19.545-05:00You wouldn't happen to be last year's &quo...You wouldn't happen to be last year's "spring troll" would you Anon? Because all I'm hearing about that time period is that it will feature big time cold. In any event, ensembles do a much better job predicting the general pattern than any single operational model, so saying the GFS shows something towards the end of its run is like saying some 2 year old is predicting the Browns to win the Super Bowl next year.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-53817302646751920352014-01-12T18:32:06.805-05:002014-01-12T18:32:06.805-05:00Absolutely no way to be sure. Give me an accurate ...Absolutely no way to be sure. Give me an accurate model suite that can forecast out to 2 weeks which shows no storms and then I'll choose to buy the notion.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-545704502016981462014-01-12T17:38:03.038-05:002014-01-12T17:38:03.038-05:00This is definitely not true. In fact much colder w...This is definitely not true. In fact much colder weather is forecasted to return later this month and February. Other channels have also hinted at this as well as the NWS out of Buffalo.Snowdognoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-39871006495944557962014-01-12T17:36:04.490-05:002014-01-12T17:36:04.490-05:00I do not see a lot of snow. There will be very wea...I do not see a lot of snow. There will be very weak clippers that pass to our North mostly and bring light snow but not much. Lake effect could be a bigger issue for some depending on the winds. With the clippers passing to our north I think the prevailing wind direction will be West to SW not favoring the Rochester area. It will definitely be a progressively colder but with a lack of storms it will be a waste.Snowdognoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-17069697698907708672014-01-12T17:33:40.245-05:002014-01-12T17:33:40.245-05:00Nothing on latest GFS run. I think you may be wron...Nothing on latest GFS run. I think you may be wrong again HP in fact I see signs of spring like conditions returning towards end of January and into February.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-53586725747406101462014-01-12T14:59:23.366-05:002014-01-12T14:59:23.366-05:00I have been wrong a lot this winter. Time will te...I have been wrong a lot this winter. Time will tell.HPnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-53985618479805956232014-01-12T14:39:06.166-05:002014-01-12T14:39:06.166-05:00Not sure HP where you are seeing that on the lates...Not sure HP where you are seeing that on the latest EURO? You can look out 5-7 days and see no precipitation for us? Not sure what you are seeing? Maybe weatherguy or snowdog can chime in on what they think.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com