tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post3402930097711972488..comments2024-02-13T03:39:18.616-05:00Comments on News 8 Weather Blog: COLD YES BUT WHERE'S THE SNOW?News 8 Weatherhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10107233504909304176noreply@blogger.comBlogger89125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-43458212705527175592015-01-16T12:46:34.087-05:002015-01-16T12:46:34.087-05:00We've been cold on average while the MJO was b...We've been cold on average while the MJO was busy floating around in warm phases at record amplitudes. So I don't think it's that much of a trump card, at least not substantially more than a teleconnection domain with a large mass field such as the EPO.Mantis Tobogganhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11104491137465766315noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-85661495051286442092015-01-16T12:33:24.481-05:002015-01-16T12:33:24.481-05:00And idk about you CCCC, but I'm beginning to t...And idk about you CCCC, but I'm beginning to think the MJO trumps all the teleconections...Weatherguynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-65941329604994433212015-01-16T12:28:30.659-05:002015-01-16T12:28:30.659-05:00Agreed, the past few weeks have made our "mil...Agreed, the past few weeks have made our "mild" stretch in early December a distant memory. BTW, we actually got a fair amount of snow last night as HP previously mentioned, nickle and dimes add up over time so I feel as though 100+ inches is still in the cards.Weatherguynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-42464634143477235482015-01-16T11:57:06.336-05:002015-01-16T11:57:06.336-05:00Lower your expectations to zero and you'll nev...Lower your expectations to zero and you'll never be disappointed again ;DMantis Tobogganhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11104491137465766315noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-5018717448129402892015-01-16T11:54:00.841-05:002015-01-16T11:54:00.841-05:00I will say that I'm not a fan of the overnight...I will say that I'm not a fan of the overnight trends, but we're still 8 days away. Recall the model agreement from our cutter a few weeks ago, the agreement that had the system sliding too far south. Then recall what eventually happened in reality. There's still a huge spread in the ensembles, that alone communicates plenty of remaining uncertainty. One new feature has made itself known within the past 24 hours on the models: a redeveloping clipper, which I'm sure everyone here would be just thrilled to have yet again. The difference this time is that it may have some access to southern stream moisture, which could actually produce an appreciable snowfall if its associated shortwave digs enough.<br /><br />Cold and windy out there with frequent blowing snow and some decent drifting. Strong shades of last season for sure.Mantis Tobogganhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11104491137465766315noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-61563440499943165642015-01-16T11:22:45.572-05:002015-01-16T11:22:45.572-05:0012z GFS is nothing next week for a storm. Very dis...12z GFS is nothing next week for a storm. Very disappointing.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-36850682854774862612015-01-16T10:28:11.299-05:002015-01-16T10:28:11.299-05:00Snowdog - go through weather history for ROC…those...Snowdog - go through weather history for ROC…those memorable are memorable because they were very infrequent. The nature of your post proves that. You don't remember the nickel and dime winters because they aren't significant in your memory, but they are the norm. The 30 year average is 4-5 per year. That goes back to 1980. I was born in 1975, and I remember a few nasty, cold and snowy winters. It was not EVERY winter. More recently, I recall 2010-11, 2013-14, 2002-03 and 2003-04 as particularly nasty with frequent large (6"+) snow events. 1999 featured two 20"+ storms in March. 1994 was really cold, but fairly dry like this winter. 2006-07 was a moderate winter here, as was 2004-05. I do also agree that winters are slightly less severe than they used to be…but not as much as our memories would like, as the heavy winters of the past tend to blend together and create an illusion that every winter was that way. As I look out my window in rural, eastern Penfield right now, it is snowing with about a 5" snowpack. There has been steady snow cover here since the 1st of the year and it isn't going anywhere anytime soon.Chris now in Penfieldnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-61399620713564394862015-01-16T10:26:26.575-05:002015-01-16T10:26:26.575-05:00Channel 10 is very fond of doing this. Often.Channel 10 is very fond of doing this. Often.nycowboynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-43388111377782616222015-01-16T10:08:13.265-05:002015-01-16T10:08:13.265-05:00Cold front over achieved thanks to the lake. I wi...Cold front over achieved thanks to the lake. I will still keep my shovel handy for next week it still looks active to me.HPnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-33042366180486442152015-01-16T09:56:00.964-05:002015-01-16T09:56:00.964-05:00Snowed another 3 inches in hamlin this morning. F...Snowed another 3 inches in hamlin this morning. Far from quiet here.HPnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-42142404139901933842015-01-16T09:46:37.914-05:002015-01-16T09:46:37.914-05:00When was the last time someone mentioned a storm 7...When was the last time someone mentioned a storm 7 - 8 days away on TV? Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-50825365311882276822015-01-16T08:12:03.153-05:002015-01-16T08:12:03.153-05:00Not one local met is talking about a storm potenti...Not one local met is talking about a storm potential at the end of next week. In fact Scott said very little snow the next 7 days. KW keeps trying to give faint hope for Sun/Monday. We will keep hearing as we usually do that signs are pointing to a snowy and cold pattern and that will keep getting pushed week after week as usual. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-2100480306338373142015-01-16T07:33:11.228-05:002015-01-16T07:33:11.228-05:00Visibility pretty low this morning with the blowin...Visibility pretty low this morning with the blowing snow. Drive careful. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-69496002589867268742015-01-16T06:20:35.966-05:002015-01-16T06:20:35.966-05:00Oh..your 500 posts on this didn't make that ve...Oh..your 500 posts on this didn't make that very clear. Thanks for posting it one more time.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-31115695184190119482015-01-16T05:48:15.714-05:002015-01-16T05:48:15.714-05:00Agreed. I see what you are saying. It just irritat...Agreed. I see what you are saying. It just irritates me that we have cold air with no storms around. We will see what happens the rest of the winter.Snowdognoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-63719560210762248372015-01-16T05:45:48.026-05:002015-01-16T05:45:48.026-05:00All I am saying is this. The winters I remember ar...All I am saying is this. The winters I remember are the ones that had BIG storms. Blizzards and Ice storms. I do not remember the winters that was all nickel and dime stuff which happens most of our winters, I want the memorable winters which are few and far between. This nickel and dime stuff, to me, is boring.Snowdognoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-44755396402471641042015-01-15T21:08:52.998-05:002015-01-15T21:08:52.998-05:00I wasn't even talking about the whole winter, ...I wasn't even talking about the whole winter, I was talking about the stretch from 1/6 through 1/12. Anyone who paid even a cursory amount of attention knows that December was a boring hellhole with all of one notable winter storm.<br /><br />"I would much rather have BIG storms than nickel and dime stuff that we always get."<br /><br />Oh man you sound EXACTLY like I did back in January 2011, when we were getting nickel-and-dimed into oblivion while the coast got hammered over and over. I told myself that I would much rather have NYC's climo with all of the big storms, forget these wimpy little nickels and dimes they're stupid anyway. Fast forward to one year later, I was practically begging for that pattern to repeat itself. NYC's climo was happening right in front of me, and it was nothing but mud puddles and dreary overcast. I'm right there with you, I would LOVE to have a climo that promotes big storms every week or two in place of our usual smaller events. But here's where we diverge pretty severely: I don't complain when we do get those smaller events. I appreciate when they happen, because I know I could be staring at brown grass and dirty puddles instead of beautiful fresh snow. I could choose to shake my fist at the sky and act like it'll make a difference, but that's just a waste of valuable calories. You can bet your ass I'd rather have a big honking inland runner primed to slam us with multiple feet of snow and severe blizzard conditions. But that's such a rare occurrence that I don't bother obsessing over it, and I certainly don't come to this blog to complain that one isn't happening. I absolutely respect your preferences...just like I respect somebody's preference to climb to the top of the Washington Monument rather than take the elevator. I have no right to look down on them for their preference, but I still wonder why they put themselves through that kind of trouble. You can set your standards as high as you want, just as long as you're willing to be sorely disappointed most of the time.Mantis Tobogganhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11104491137465766315noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-73336987855389349842015-01-15T20:14:38.734-05:002015-01-15T20:14:38.734-05:00Not me. I would much rather have BIG storms than n...Not me. I would much rather have BIG storms than nickel and dime stuff that we always get. That is my opinion. No matter what you say CCC this winter, to me, has not been active as far as snowfall is concerned. I respect your opinion, just respect mine. Snowdognoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-26101612614849672962015-01-15T19:56:17.090-05:002015-01-15T19:56:17.090-05:00For the record, I would much rather have consisten...For the record, I would much rather have consistent nickel-and-dime events than a large storm…4 weeks off…large storm. Keeps the snow pack fresh and pretty, plus it is much easier to manage for driving, snowplowing, plowing, etc. Plus, that is great for the trails ! :-0Chris now in Penfieldnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-88408996545160706672015-01-15T19:54:07.642-05:002015-01-15T19:54:07.642-05:0098% of the winter is free of large snow events.98% of the winter is free of large snow events.Chris now in Penfieldnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-11272944269697220142015-01-15T19:10:16.890-05:002015-01-15T19:10:16.890-05:00So getting a clipper, an arctic front, a gusty bou...So getting a clipper, an arctic front, a gusty bout of lake effect, another clipper, an overrunning event and some more lake effect, all in the span of less than a week...what would you call that? Calm? Flaccid? Smooth sailing? A whole lotta nothing? That's a half dozen distinct weather events in rapid succession, do they all just not count in your mind? If a bunch of crickets are outside chirping like crazy, is it still quiet because they aren't making your walls vibrate? I don't get it. Here are the relevant dictionary definitions of "active" by the way, courtesy of Captain Oxford:<br /><br />http://www.oxforddictionaries.com/us/definition/american_english/active<br /><br />"Moving or tending to move about vigorously or frequently"<br />"Characterized by energetic activity"<br /><br />Nothing in there about needing high impact events to occur, and the rapid succession of snow-producing disturbances definitely constitutes "energetic" given the amount of ENERGY floating around. By the way, "an inch here and an inch there" is an extremely inaccurate characterization of how the stretch in question played out. Go to the NWS climate page and review each snowfall during that stretch. You think this is a matter of subjective interpretation; it really isn't. 1/6 through 1/12 was an active period, end of story, no amount of mental gymnastics can change that fact. Why am I engaging in this idiotic and seemingly pointless argument, you ask? Because we're going to keep having stretches like that several times per year, and you're going to complain about every single one of them while the rest of us enjoy the snow...unless you lower your standards to a more realistic level. Our winter climo isn't that exciting, we don't routinely get slammed with a bunch of big storms between November and April, we don't end up in the crosshairs of most systems that the Gulf decides to puke up into the eastern states...but we DO receive a lot of smaller activity on a very frequent basis. Embrace that reality and maybe you'll finally quit moaning and groaning for longer than a week.Mantis Tobogganhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11104491137465766315noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-46046892350263012482015-01-15T17:56:23.848-05:002015-01-15T17:56:23.848-05:00Nope. I just don't call active and inch here a...Nope. I just don't call active and inch here and an inch there. To me it is an active winter when we get synoptic storms which have been lacking this year. Our lake effect EVENTS have been wimpy at best like the last one. The lake effect has been inactive as well here in Rochester. That is why we are 7" below normal for the year and well under from last year.Snowdognoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-60744069981303230822015-01-15T17:14:21.468-05:002015-01-15T17:14:21.468-05:00That is one messy looking progression of things on...That is one messy looking progression of things on the Euro for late next week. Just a giant mess of shortwaves that eventually consolidates into some freakish behemoth just off the coast. Nothing more than a curiosity at this lead time. The Euro ensemble mean looks nice for our purposes, with most of the members tracking NW of the operational. The GFS ensembles are a lot messier, but the mean still looks decent. The GGEM suite has completely lost its way and tries to break the western ridge down far too quickly given the expected teleconnection progression and the depictions in the other model suites. Basically anything from a western Appalachians runner to a Miller B coastal transfer to a pure Miller A coastal to a southern slider is still on the table at this point. Two things are rather high confidence though: there will be significant cyclogenesis somewhere in the Gulf of Mexico next week, and the airmass following whatever develops will be really freaking cold.Mantis Tobogganhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11104491137465766315noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-55851555889420216902015-01-15T17:04:18.998-05:002015-01-15T17:04:18.998-05:00I've posted this too many times to count, but ...I've posted this too many times to count, but our region average 4-5 heavy snowfalls per winter, heavy being defined as 6 inches or greater. The relevant graphic is a little ways down the page in this link:<br /><br />http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1717Mantis Tobogganhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11104491137465766315noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-18171210023552768202015-01-15T16:56:25.791-05:002015-01-15T16:56:25.791-05:00Right, because the Official Snowdog Delineator Bet...Right, because the Official Snowdog Delineator Between Something And Nothing is at least one foot of snow in 24 hours. Got it :PMantis Tobogganhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11104491137465766315noreply@blogger.com