tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post3413780386034094919..comments2024-02-13T03:39:18.616-05:00Comments on News 8 Weather Blog: NEXT SNOW STORM WILL BE DECENT BUT NOTHING EXCEPTIONALNews 8 Weatherhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10107233504909304176noreply@blogger.comBlogger36125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-13185399033244715212014-02-03T11:59:49.814-05:002014-02-03T11:59:49.814-05:00I would agree; especially for those of us who have...I would agree; especially for those of us who have to get up early to shovel driveways and sidewalks. It helps to know if you have to get up at 3am or 4am to shovel. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-19349262703546004322014-02-03T11:46:58.513-05:002014-02-03T11:46:58.513-05:00I saw RC's forecast on 10 this morning and he ...I saw RC's forecast on 10 this morning and he said some light snow this weekend, then I flipped to weather channel and they said a few snow showers. Not that I want no snow, I just wondered what was going on.Westsidernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-7595669606848245272014-02-03T11:44:59.820-05:002014-02-03T11:44:59.820-05:00Yeah, speaking of the weekend storm...this is now ...Yeah, speaking of the weekend storm...this is now 5 of the past 6 GFS runs showing a big snowfall in Central and Western NY. What's most impressive is that the track it takes on that run should normally keep the snow well east of here. The inland primary getting so close to us before the coastal transfer is the key. Most impressive of all though is that many ensemble means already show a low pressure of 980 mb, which is a strong signal for a big event as they usually aren't so pronounced at this range.Mantis Tobogganhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11104491137465766315noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-79828192635852879552014-02-03T11:34:09.171-05:002014-02-03T11:34:09.171-05:00By the time the storm ends Wednesday night, I woul...By the time the storm ends Wednesday night, I would say for the Rochester Metro area, between 10-14 inches, with lake enhancement.<br /><br />For the weekend storm, very close, but not close enough.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-50230838008783713572014-02-03T11:12:49.792-05:002014-02-03T11:12:49.792-05:00Not exactly "well south," it still keeps...Not exactly "well south," it still keeps the 6 inch line right around the Thruway. Chill out.Mantis Tobogganhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11104491137465766315noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-68358025332586744312014-02-03T11:06:00.946-05:002014-02-03T11:06:00.946-05:004 inches 4 inches Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-30896839107084333462014-02-03T10:55:36.872-05:002014-02-03T10:55:36.872-05:00Ok. So who wants to vote. How much do you think ...Ok. So who wants to vote. How much do you think we will get. (Tuesday/Wednesday) I set up a poll. Click on my name to take you to the poll.<br /><br />http://poll.pollcode.com/7713652<br /><br />http://poll.pollcode.com/7713652_result<br />Spreadsheet Guyhttp://poll.pollcode.com/7713652noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-58997694114302309452014-02-03T10:52:34.984-05:002014-02-03T10:52:34.984-05:0012z GFS horrible run moved well south. North of th...12z GFS horrible run moved well south. North of the thruway will be lucky to get 5 inches from this so called storm. NBD as usual weather is not an exact science and predictions are useless.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-22814338952938502014-02-03T10:30:52.315-05:002014-02-03T10:30:52.315-05:00Those of us in the Finger Lakes are predicted to h...Those of us in the Finger Lakes are predicted to have higher snow fall.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-23523316217831591332014-02-03T10:29:21.068-05:002014-02-03T10:29:21.068-05:00Well - 6 to 10 inches is enough to be significant ...Well - 6 to 10 inches is enough to be significant IMO. Schools will likely close and roads will be hazardous for commuters. I don't know about anyone else, but shoveling 6-10 inches from walks and driveways is definitely significant. Child care for school aged kids is also a challenge for many. Sure - it's not a mega storm and is manageable by our highway crews, but still impacts our day.<br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-86900452378058507802014-02-03T10:13:49.842-05:002014-02-03T10:13:49.842-05:00Are you predicting 14 inches for North West or Nor...Are you predicting 14 inches for North West or North Weat by Lake Ontario? Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-13809306931328874552014-02-03T09:50:20.705-05:002014-02-03T09:50:20.705-05:00From the NWS discussion:
"SNOWFALL TOTALS TU...From the NWS discussion:<br /><br />"SNOWFALL TOTALS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE ABOUT 6 TO 10 INCHES...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND THE NORTH COUNTRY. IF THERE IS A GREATER CONTRIBUTION FROM LAKE ONTARIO...OR IF ANY MESOSCALE SNOW BANDS DEVELOP NORTH OF THE LOW...SNOWFALL TOTALS COULD BE HIGHER."<br /><br />Hence I am sticking with my strictly unofficial 8-14 inch call, although the 14 would be restricted to select hilly locations and places near the lake. I've seen numerous instances where southern tier jackpot storms go further north and deliver the biggest snows to the lake plain instead, so it wouldn't be terribly surprising if that happened again here although I'm not fully expecting it.<br /><br />After a one run blip to a far more southerly solution, the GFS is back on board with the idea it had for 3 straight runs regarding the weekend system, with an inland primary low tracking up to Ohio before transferring to the coast. Other models have single lows further east. If the coastal component of this storm, however influential it may be, tracks close enough to the coast and develops at the right time, this could be another one of those storms where lake enhancement plays a big role. But with numerous possible outcomes still on the table we can only wait and hope.Mantis Tobogganhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11104491137465766315noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-33639770566512134972014-02-03T08:55:47.737-05:002014-02-03T08:55:47.737-05:00I see channel 13 on website has 6 plus inches for ...I see channel 13 on website has 6 plus inches for us and not sure about others. I know the overnight models did nothing but support 8-10 inches for us. So not sure where you are getting this from Westsider? The 10:30 GFS will be important as will the 1:00 pm Euro run. Wonder what CCC, HP and Weahterguys latest thinking is?Bnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-37265632548971768232014-02-03T08:25:11.665-05:002014-02-03T08:25:11.665-05:00Not to jump the gun, but it seems local forecasts ...Not to jump the gun, but it seems local forecasts are really downplaying the weekend storm. Weather Channel has a few snow showers for us and channel 10 says a little light snow. At this point that storm must be passing way south and east of us, but I know it's still early to write it off. Does anyone have any thoughts on this?Westsidernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-90527420067271343972014-02-03T08:01:13.025-05:002014-02-03T08:01:13.025-05:00Any updates from the over night model runs?Any updates from the over night model runs?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-36704993304389563142014-02-03T06:34:53.539-05:002014-02-03T06:34:53.539-05:00As I thought. Winter storm watches are up for all....As I thought. Winter storm watches are up for all. 6-10. I am hoping we are on the 10" side with some lake enhancement and a little lake effect after that. It will be drier snow the ratios will be higher. It will be a nice mid-sized storm for all.Snowdognoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-41497005373438801652014-02-02T23:10:05.473-05:002014-02-02T23:10:05.473-05:00Overnight into Wednesday morning looks like when t...Overnight into Wednesday morning looks like when the most snow will fall which would make it tough on the AM commute.News 8 Weatherhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10107233504909304176noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-91739751581002664352014-02-02T22:56:22.438-05:002014-02-02T22:56:22.438-05:00Looks to me like both the most recent NAM and GFS ...Looks to me like both the most recent NAM and GFS runs give us a solid 8-10 inches. Not an expert but that is what I see. This will come fast in a short period of time thus driving will be treacherous. If it starts late Tuesday it will go all day Wednesday until early evening. I think schools will have a tough time opening if it happens.Bnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-25574423632230323212014-02-02T22:53:47.838-05:002014-02-02T22:53:47.838-05:00Seems way too early to be issuing watches, even wi...Seems way too early to be issuing watches, even with relative agreement amongst the models. We're still 48 hours out, the threshold is usually 36 hours. Still, I fully expect to see watches issued for the lakeshore counties within the next 24 hours. That weekend system does look like a doozy, and may have a much larger precipitation shield than usual which could spray a large area with substantial snow. The one worry I have is that the confluence in Canada suppresses it too much and it misses to our south, but whether or not that happens is obviously still up for debate.Mantis Tobogganhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11104491137465766315noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-3379081005973697242014-02-02T22:47:03.495-05:002014-02-02T22:47:03.495-05:00So...how does the Wednesday morning commute look? ...So...how does the Wednesday morning commute look? Regular snowy or close schools snowy? Obviously it's too early to ask. But let's ask anyway.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-11491243414471850562014-02-02T22:40:17.819-05:002014-02-02T22:40:17.819-05:00Someone in the weather office is trying to be a he...Someone in the weather office is trying to be a hero and make a bold call on something zero models are showing. In fact, latest NAM gives us half a foot easy. Idk understand but who knows, maybe they see something we don't...Weatherguynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-73860801619057657162014-02-02T22:12:13.601-05:002014-02-02T22:12:13.601-05:00Man, someone is going to get plastered next weeken...Man, someone is going to get plastered next weekend and it could be us. We will see.Snowdognoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-25680433997561695822014-02-02T22:11:24.208-05:002014-02-02T22:11:24.208-05:00They are not confident that we will see Warning cr...They are not confident that we will see Warning criteria snow North of I-90. All the models I see show us in the 6-10 inch range. That is warning criteria.Snowdognoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-80995156974247936682014-02-02T22:02:20.200-05:002014-02-02T22:02:20.200-05:00Why would the NWS put up a Winter storm watch for ...Why would the NWS put up a Winter storm watch for all but the lake Ontario shore counties. Are they on drugs? They are terrible this year.Snowdognoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-84283429669261451072014-02-02T21:35:07.407-05:002014-02-02T21:35:07.407-05:00Looks like latest NAM has us in 8-10 inch range by...Looks like latest NAM has us in 8-10 inch range by Wednesday.Bnoreply@blogger.com