tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post4235608263452660224..comments2024-02-13T03:39:18.616-05:00Comments on News 8 Weather Blog: El Niño in Full Force?News 8 Weatherhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10107233504909304176noreply@blogger.comBlogger93125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-4928200748281492642015-12-21T16:15:37.843-05:002015-12-21T16:15:37.843-05:00Wow. The beat goes on:
ANY COOLDOWN
WILL BE SHORT...Wow. The beat goes on:<br /><br />ANY COOLDOWN<br />WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS WELL AS MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON<br />PRODUCING ANOTHER SYSTEM SIMILAR TO THURSDAY`S SYSTEM EARLY NEXT<br />WEEK...LIKELY LEADING TO ANOTHER ROUND OF POTENTIAL RECORD WARMTH.<br />Snowdognoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-55373150200376231272015-12-21T14:10:58.961-05:002015-12-21T14:10:58.961-05:00http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/astrono...http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/astronomical-winter-begins-solstice-when-will-cold-snow-weather-return/54333620<br /><br />http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2015122112/gfs-ens_z500a_us_45.png<br />http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem-ens/2015122112/gem-ens_z500a_us_45.png<br /><br />Slow and steady.Mantis Tobogganhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11104491137465766315noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-57393661962678965402015-12-21T12:33:27.385-05:002015-12-21T12:33:27.385-05:00That someone is off base. Get your waders out afte...That someone is off base. Get your waders out after Christmas because we may get a lot of rain. The winter is just getting worse and worse as we go. Nothing more awful than heavy rain at the end of December. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-64172298171175955632015-12-21T07:38:17.003-05:002015-12-21T07:38:17.003-05:00Remember that it has snow as late as mid to late A...Remember that it has snow as late as mid to late April some years. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-20892268516698639662015-12-20T21:48:11.350-05:002015-12-20T21:48:11.350-05:00We'd have to get 4.3" of snow between now...We'd have to get 4.3" of snow between now and year end. It'd be a lark if we got it at this point. Still seems like a decent cool down ahead after the 1st with more normal like temps. Hope that materializes.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-32484389343181273142015-12-20T20:40:15.417-05:002015-12-20T20:40:15.417-05:00Someone said there is a possibility for a big stor...Someone said there is a possibility for a big storm in a week from now? Is that accurate?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-52128190264280143542015-12-20T16:31:45.441-05:002015-12-20T16:31:45.441-05:00Warmest for sure. Least snowy? Likely but not defi...Warmest for sure. Least snowy? Likely but not definite.Mantis Tobogganhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11104491137465766315noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-30845178038148573752015-12-20T16:29:32.872-05:002015-12-20T16:29:32.872-05:00https://twitter.com/antmasiello/status/67863929605...https://twitter.com/antmasiello/status/678639296056836096Mantis Tobogganhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11104491137465766315noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-38856640927221001592015-12-20T16:28:28.087-05:002015-12-20T16:28:28.087-05:00This could be the warmest December on record and t...This could be the warmest December on record and the least snowiest.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-495732826740866032015-12-20T16:27:11.478-05:002015-12-20T16:27:11.478-05:00The most exciting 70 inches we'll ever receive...The most exciting 70 inches we'll ever receive followed by the most boring 120 inches since 2010-11? It's more likely than you think.Mantis Tobogganhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11104491137465766315noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-58430857518085312582015-12-20T15:06:53.646-05:002015-12-20T15:06:53.646-05:00Mark it down guy's dream.
I actually think th...Mark it down guy's dream.<br /><br />I actually think the winter will have a couple 8-14" storms. But be warmer overall. I would be shocked if it really came in quite that low of a total. I'm expecting g 70 ish on the season still. But lots of melting.Spreadsheet Guynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-24917867426582854112015-12-20T14:42:22.306-05:002015-12-20T14:42:22.306-05:00You know what would be utterly hysterical? If we r...You know what would be utterly hysterical? If we really did get only 60 inches of snow this winter, but it all came in two historically massive blizzards. A true I-95 style winter.Mantis Tobogganhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11104491137465766315noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-21418842415238994762015-12-20T13:27:36.102-05:002015-12-20T13:27:36.102-05:00I don't think our early January colder pattern...I don't think our early January colder pattern is one that will last. We'll probably snap back to warmer than average at some point, but not nearly as strongly or persistently as right now. The changes happening in the high latitudes will make it increasingly difficult to sustain the current pattern at this magnitude and duration.Mantis Tobogganhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11104491137465766315noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-60430978854669438582015-12-20T13:17:36.675-05:002015-12-20T13:17:36.675-05:00http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs...http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2015122012/gfs-ens_z500a_us_47.png<br />http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2015122012/gfs-ens_z500a_us_63.png<br />http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem-ens/2015122000/gem-ens_z500a_us_49.png<br />http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem-ens/2015122000/gem-ens_z500a_us_65.png<br /><br />http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2015122012/gfs-ens_Tz10_nhem_33.png<br />http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem-ens/2015122000/gem-ens_Tz10_nhem_33.png<br /><br />http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/anderson/weekly-long-range-forecast-clues/54271251<br />https://twitter.com/antmasiello/status/678241049727365120<br /><br />Whatever Todd Crawford is looking at, it's definitely not what I'm looking at...Mantis Tobogganhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11104491137465766315noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-19125013452402021072015-12-20T11:49:52.890-05:002015-12-20T11:49:52.890-05:00So the weather channel is saying Jan thru March wi...So the weather channel is saying Jan thru March will be more of the same...<br />http://www.wunderground.com/news/january-march-outlook-2016-noaa-wsiAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-65371100862438225302015-12-20T11:47:20.947-05:002015-12-20T11:47:20.947-05:00Still no big storms in sight in fact a rain storm ...Still no big storms in sight in fact a rain storm more likely in a week or so. This is a terrible, terrible, winter for snow lovers. But CCCC will post shortly the patter switch is still on schedule and we should a snowflake by mid January.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-72565044360406973232015-12-19T21:48:25.654-05:002015-12-19T21:48:25.654-05:00I'm not sure I want winter if it doesn't g... I'm not sure I want winter if it doesn't get here until February. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-12822383789749302542015-12-19T17:59:35.943-05:002015-12-19T17:59:35.943-05:00That seems like a premature call to me tbh. Then a...That seems like a premature call to me tbh. Then again, I tend to err on the side of patience more often than not.Mantis Tobogganhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11104491137465766315noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-44414776104122241552015-12-19T17:47:05.733-05:002015-12-19T17:47:05.733-05:00With no snow in the foreseeable future we will end...With no snow in the foreseeable future we will end December with not even an inch of snow. Scott Hesko posted on Twitter that he sees no snow until January.Snowdognoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-77844543146393395652015-12-19T16:43:23.011-05:002015-12-19T16:43:23.011-05:00There actually is a storm potential way out in tim...There actually is a storm potential way out in time...a cutoff low that's been modeled with surprising consistency for the final few days of the month. What's obviously up in the air at this time is where it tracks...my initial take is that it's mostly a rain system for us, but some model solutions have shown it far enough south for mainly snow. Aside from the usual caveats of having a long-lead system, we have the added problem of this being a cutoff low scenario which would tend to give the models fits until very late in the game. Just something to keep an eye on...at least until the models converge to a plains cutter or lose the storm entirely :PMantis Tobogganhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11104491137465766315noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-33794140749932761172015-12-19T12:59:49.905-05:002015-12-19T12:59:49.905-05:00Also. If you open the last spreadsheet on a PC th...Also. If you open the last spreadsheet on a PC the middle worksheet gives you a scatter plot of the likelihood of exceeding a given temperature and getting a low below a given temperature for each day of the year.<br /><br />There is a slider bar to control the temperature in question.<br /><br />You could foe example see a graph of the likelihood of a high above 40 degrees for every day of the year.<br /><br />As you can expect. Late dec through mid to late Feb have similar avg temperatures. But our extreme cold days are more common at in late jan to early feb.<br /><br />It's fun to look at. I don't have the time to do as much with spreadsheets theses days. Young children and all. But I do still like to tinker from time to time.<br /><br />https://app.box.com/s/qb41qre7a3btnoel0w7z<br /><br />Or click name. It's currently the last 3 files of interest.Spreadsheet Guyhttps://app.box.com/s/qb41qre7a3btnoel0w7znoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-15081761436025608782015-12-19T12:32:37.902-05:002015-12-19T12:32:37.902-05:00You realize it is not winter yet. Winter starts on...You realize it is not winter yet. Winter starts on 12/21. Still a lot of winter left to go.Snowdognoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-601734111709726552015-12-19T11:36:42.107-05:002015-12-19T11:36:42.107-05:00Still nothing in sight as far as a storm potential...Still nothing in sight as far as a storm potential. Sad winter this is turning out to be.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-40625264275360157062015-12-19T11:34:57.444-05:002015-12-19T11:34:57.444-05:00It is really nice to finally see the sun.It is really nice to finally see the sun.Snowdognoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-30015345704230675782015-12-19T09:46:34.041-05:002015-12-19T09:46:34.041-05:00Holy smokes! You really are spreadsheetguy.Holy smokes! You really are spreadsheetguy.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com