tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post6226066907749874691..comments2024-02-13T03:39:18.616-05:00Comments on News 8 Weather Blog: NEW SNOWFALL RECORD SET YESTERDAY!News 8 Weatherhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10107233504909304176noreply@blogger.comBlogger101125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-57778335881137924912014-02-09T18:14:26.364-05:002014-02-09T18:14:26.364-05:00I can only speak to the GFS very likely being wron...I can only speak to the GFS very likely being wrong. The other models seem much more reasonable at the moment. The closest I ever got to saying the models would trend NW is saying that I'm leaning towards the Euro solution, but not quite to the extent of the 00z run from last night. Never did I explicitly state that we would trend to a good snowstorm, in fact I've already expressed doubts in that regard pending what occurs with the Great Lakes system, which again could single handedly spoil the whole thing if it's too strong and/or too fast. As it stands we need the Great Lakes low to trend slower and weaker from what the models are saying.Mantis Tobogganhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11104491137465766315noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-14744863046445940362014-02-09T18:00:57.379-05:002014-02-09T18:00:57.379-05:00CCCC true and an honest question? GFS is an outlie...CCCC true and an honest question? GFS is an outlier but all the other models are still far east of us true? How can you thin they are all wrong and this will come back NW and put us in a great snow zone?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-15878973950393145532014-02-09T17:37:49.008-05:002014-02-09T17:37:49.008-05:00I'm saying that the Euro is not "in line&...I'm saying that the Euro is not "in line" with the GFS at all. The GFS is a good 250 miles east of the Euro, and about the same distance east of everything else.Mantis Tobogganhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11104491137465766315noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-79597518591840075182014-02-09T17:32:48.055-05:002014-02-09T17:32:48.055-05:00What are you saying CCC? It still looks to far eas...What are you saying CCC? It still looks to far east to affect us.Snowdognoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-35350139125159018972014-02-09T17:25:28.182-05:002014-02-09T17:25:28.182-05:00The operational GFS is still way east of everythin...The operational GFS is still way east of everything, including its own ensembles. Ignore it entirely until it lays off the liquor long enough to get a handle on things.Mantis Tobogganhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11104491137465766315noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-30060435964106522312014-02-09T17:21:32.950-05:002014-02-09T17:21:32.950-05:00Does this look "in line" to you:
http:/...Does this look "in line" to you:<br /><br />http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014020918&time=INSTANT&var=PRMSL&hour=090<br />http://www.instantweathermaps.com/ECMWF-php/showmap-ecmwf.php?run=2014020912&region=USA&var=PRMSL_msl&hour=096<br /><br />That looks like one super thick line to me...Mantis Tobogganhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11104491137465766315noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-36932884145993400172014-02-09T17:13:08.492-05:002014-02-09T17:13:08.492-05:00New EURO is now in line with the GFS in taking the...New EURO is now in line with the GFS in taking the storm too far east. This is typical of the EURO showing a BIG storm for us only to pull back either on the intensity of track. I agree now that this will be a miss for us. and NYC East could see a nice snowstorm again.Snowdognoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-51977559102430243502014-02-09T16:50:23.533-05:002014-02-09T16:50:23.533-05:00More and more signs showing a BIG storm which will...More and more signs showing a BIG storm which will be to far our east and keep us on the outside looking in?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-48699913817536192022014-02-09T16:42:19.747-05:002014-02-09T16:42:19.747-05:00Not enough snow accumulation for a Winter Weather ...Not enough snow accumulation for a Winter Weather Advisory. There has to be at least 3 inches in a 12 hour period, which we aren't going to get outside of lake effect areas.Mantis Tobogganhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11104491137465766315noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-8328582001217005612014-02-09T16:33:59.703-05:002014-02-09T16:33:59.703-05:00I was just out driving around and there are cars o...I was just out driving around and there are cars off the roads and in ditches everywhere. It was very slippery, and it seems the salt just isn't helping much. Isn't this the time for a Winter Weather Advisory? After all it's a warning to people to be extra careful, and perhaps not go out unless they have to. I know there is a Lake Snow Advisory for later on but that starts at 9pm. I just think it would be logical to issue an advisory now, and even earlier this afternoon.Westsidernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-86187687866499843032014-02-09T15:49:17.760-05:002014-02-09T15:49:17.760-05:00Snowdog this I think would be a Thursday/Friday ev...Snowdog this I think would be a Thursday/Friday event so really 4 days away. I think by tomorrow nights runs we will know what is happening. We believe Snowdog and it is not over until CCCC punts.Bnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-83564751158108969082014-02-09T15:42:43.266-05:002014-02-09T15:42:43.266-05:00No offense snow lovers but I'm really hoping f...No offense snow lovers but I'm really hoping for a miss. My sister is dealing with ice dams on her roof and some moisture coming in. Gotta get this snow melted so we can hopefully fix the problem. She is very stressed.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-69508094975987498332014-02-09T15:24:49.383-05:002014-02-09T15:24:49.383-05:00I absolutely do NOT agree that this storm is done....I absolutely do NOT agree that this storm is done. I just have concerns that various kinks (namely the Great Lakes low) could ruin our chances, that's all. I also have several reasons to believe that the GFS is off its rocker, and it would seem that the WPC (formerly HPC) agrees with me. We still have a day or two remaining before we can either gas up the snowblowers or punt and move on to the next one.Mantis Tobogganhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11104491137465766315noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-46302531586633091282014-02-09T15:23:41.609-05:002014-02-09T15:23:41.609-05:00What does this mean?What does this mean?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-44764413968866179792014-02-09T15:23:08.736-05:002014-02-09T15:23:08.736-05:00The storm is 5 days out and many on here are so su...The storm is 5 days out and many on here are so sure it will be a miss. The trend this whole winter is to bring these storms more West as time progresses. Many of the weather offices are talking about an inland track possibility. Everything is on the table 5 days out. It may be a miss, it may not. Time will tell. I believe it will end up trending westward.Snowdognoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-75562143500018139212014-02-09T15:16:55.615-05:002014-02-09T15:16:55.615-05:00So CCCC you agree with angry Anon that this storm ...So CCCC you agree with angry Anon that this storm is done? A tad confused with your post? I still think it is early to be having definite solutions. Come on Snowdog we missed it this weekend but we have to have faith in this one. Are you with me?Bnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-74977034455307278892014-02-09T15:03:53.267-05:002014-02-09T15:03:53.267-05:00"However great minds do think alike."
T..."However great minds do think alike."<br /><br />They do indeed:<br />http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdhmd.html<br /><br />"AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEAST WED<br />~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~<br />PREFERENCE: NON-GFS COMPROMISE<br />CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE"<br /><br />"THE 12Z GFS SHOWS A MENAGERIE OF CONVECTIVE/GRIDSCALE FEEDBACK BULL'S EYES FROM NORTHERN LOUISIANA EASTWARD FROM LATE TUESDAY ONWARD, WHICH CAN EXPLAIN ITS QUICKER PROGRESSION."Mantis Tobogganhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11104491137465766315noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-53066298482277290572014-02-09T14:52:41.213-05:002014-02-09T14:52:41.213-05:00CCCC please see Anon post 2:31 said the same thing...CCCC please see Anon post 2:31 said the same thing only earlier and more straight forward lol. However great minds do think alike. However I do believe we are out of this storm and it will be too far east.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-35896652711017522082014-02-09T14:43:52.767-05:002014-02-09T14:43:52.767-05:00The "extended warmup" on the models cons...The "extended warmup" on the models consists largely of high temps in the mid to upper 30s, which is slightly above average for mid/late February. One thing I worry about with the late week system is that the pesky Great Lakes system could induce slight ridging over the interior Northeast, which would dry out the NW precip shield of the coastal and confine the heavy snow to coastal areas even with a track near the coast. This is in addition to it possibly booting the coastal out to sea. We want that Great Lakes system to be as weak and as far west as we can get it, otherwise it could single handedly screw our chances. That said, I still favor the foreign models over the GFS, big time. The GFS appears to be having convective feedback issues which is causing secondary surface low development too far east, and subsequently an out to sea track. Its depiction of the Great Lakes low actually isn't much stronger than the other models, but it's significantly more progressive with it. This is a well documented GFS bias which manifested with the Thanksgiving storm earlier in the season, and resulted in the GFS being the last model to lock on to a coastal track with the storm. Another red flag: the GFS ensemble mean is NW of the operational. So the case against the out to sea track of the GFS is very strong at the moment, but there is always a remote chance that could change.Mantis Tobogganhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11104491137465766315noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-43503366659188466622014-02-09T14:31:15.429-05:002014-02-09T14:31:15.429-05:00This will not change. There is a piece of energy o...This will not change. There is a piece of energy over the great lakes that is keeping this storm east. In fact if that comes more easterly it will push this storm more east. It is over as is the winter and that is ok it has been a tough one.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-53031233644097034012014-02-09T14:26:48.184-05:002014-02-09T14:26:48.184-05:00That is today. The trend this winter is to move st...That is today. The trend this winter is to move storms west as the event comes closer. It is 5 days out. It will change. The models change everyday I have heard no mets discuss any extended warm-up in our future, just back to normal which is ok with me. This brutal cold sucks.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-5355141117876950462014-02-09T14:13:36.184-05:002014-02-09T14:13:36.184-05:00The latest GFS and EURO runs. GFS is OTS and EURO ...The latest GFS and EURO runs. GFS is OTS and EURO way SE so no storm this week. Plus both show an extended warm-up after next weekend.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-23403933021898609782014-02-09T14:07:04.457-05:002014-02-09T14:07:04.457-05:00Will you stop with this its over crap. What data d...Will you stop with this its over crap. What data do you have to prove that.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-53861224028319610712014-02-09T14:03:27.303-05:002014-02-09T14:03:27.303-05:00Unfortunately for us it will probably be a miss an...Unfortunately for us it will probably be a miss and we will be spectators.Snowdognoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-84365507612527688312014-02-09T14:01:51.117-05:002014-02-09T14:01:51.117-05:00The 12Z GEM has a blizzard for the east coast Thur...The 12Z GEM has a blizzard for the east coast Thursday afternoon. This will be fun period to watch as all the models are now showing a storm near the coast, and possibly a VERY strong LP. <br /><br />In the meantime it is currently snowing lightly, with LES advisories for shoreline in Monroe, and Wayne counties tonight and tomorrow, this winter has been a good one up to this point.HPnoreply@blogger.com