tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post6488347405941871787..comments2024-02-13T03:39:18.616-05:00Comments on News 8 Weather Blog: A CLASSIC MID WINTER WEEKEND AHEADNews 8 Weatherhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10107233504909304176noreply@blogger.comBlogger92125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-32951988834226452982014-01-27T14:09:47.166-05:002014-01-27T14:09:47.166-05:00Still looks like a fun 2 weeks of storm tracking a...Still looks like a fun 2 weeks of storm tracking ahead for us. A quick look at the GFS will illustrate this. Not that anyone should take the run verbatim or pick on individual features, just look at the overall picture.<br /><br />Does anyone recall a certain Anon (me) calling for this exact thing to occur, like, a week and a half ago? That the storm train would get rolling once the PNA started to nosedive? Not that I'm bragging or anything (I totally am). I just hope we aren't "rewarded" for this lengthy obnoxious bitter cold stretch with a series of great lakes cutters and a ton of rain/slop. Unfortunately that remains a real, albeit unlikely (in my humble opinion), possibility. Just something we always have to contend with when the energy involved is purely southern stream.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-222894732629153662014-01-27T13:58:40.945-05:002014-01-27T13:58:40.945-05:00Right now it looks like February 4th or 5th. Timin...Right now it looks like February 4th or 5th. Timing has been bouncing around somewhat, as well as placement.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-62672973278304405522014-01-27T13:40:07.972-05:002014-01-27T13:40:07.972-05:00What are the dates you are looking at for this sto...What are the dates you are looking at for this storm? Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-3602820632904292152014-01-27T13:03:25.232-05:002014-01-27T13:03:25.232-05:00I hear ya was just wondering a questimate.I hear ya was just wondering a questimate.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-45034808151034120672014-01-27T12:40:16.773-05:002014-01-27T12:40:16.773-05:00I can't rightly speculate on amounts this far ...I can't rightly speculate on amounts this far out. If everything lined up perfectly we would be dealing with quite a large amount of snow, but perfect setups aren't too frequent anywhere you go.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-2754952298139873832014-01-27T12:23:23.960-05:002014-01-27T12:23:23.960-05:00If it lined up right based on some of the runs and...If it lined up right based on some of the runs and we were in the bullseye then how much snow are you talking?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-51977022952797417762014-01-27T12:12:35.674-05:002014-01-27T12:12:35.674-05:00Short answer: yes. Longer answer: yes, but with so...Short answer: yes. Longer answer: yes, but with some run-to-run inconsistency the final outcome is still very much in question.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-71704757380342058072014-01-27T12:09:50.959-05:002014-01-27T12:09:50.959-05:00Anon January 26th 1:05 how is that potential behem...Anon January 26th 1:05 how is that potential behemoth of a storm shaping up for the 2-5 time frame on the latest model runs? You think the possibility is still there?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-31602275562956890332014-01-27T10:29:13.090-05:002014-01-27T10:29:13.090-05:00Anon 7:08 it did go to a wind chill warning as we ...Anon 7:08 it did go to a wind chill warning as we thought. If is gets to 0 tonight with winds 15-25 mph have to believe we are in the minus 20 - minus 30 range tomorrow. It is 15 degrees air temp. now and the wind chill is minus 2. Wonder what school leaders will do tomorrow. Many closed today.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-14201309763583480372014-01-27T09:39:35.181-05:002014-01-27T09:39:35.181-05:00That's a terrible attitude IMO. Snow isn't...That's a terrible attitude IMO. Snow isn't the only exciting form weather can take. Example: Hurricane Sandy was pretty exciting I would think. 50-60 mph gusts with a driving moderate/heavy rain for 12 straight hours, can't possibly argue against that being exciting. Besides, meteorologists don't exist to convey news about exciting weather, they exist to be informative. Dangerous wind chills are something the public must be informed about as much as possible, regardless of how "boring" they might be.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-59509186937107095352014-01-27T00:08:47.908-05:002014-01-27T00:08:47.908-05:00That question will be answered over the next sever...That question will be answered over the next several days.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-81166341698592139062014-01-27T00:08:16.125-05:002014-01-27T00:08:16.125-05:00No one is excited about the wind chill. It's w...No one is excited about the wind chill. It's weather related and this is a weather blog, so we're talking about it here. Discussions don't always need to pertain to something exciting.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-71115878287930248362014-01-26T23:34:14.134-05:002014-01-26T23:34:14.134-05:00Because it is just cold and no-one gets excited ov...Because it is just cold and no-one gets excited over cold. Who really cares if it is not snow.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-25757169609741809512014-01-26T23:33:02.493-05:002014-01-26T23:33:02.493-05:00But where is the big slug of moisture going?? Up t...But where is the big slug of moisture going?? Up towards us or off the coast like it always does????Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-49187614991496972532014-01-26T23:23:04.600-05:002014-01-26T23:23:04.600-05:00Why is everyone so excited about wind chill????? B...Why is everyone so excited about wind chill????? Boring!!!!!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-80778955344957431472014-01-26T19:08:32.641-05:002014-01-26T19:08:32.641-05:00I wouldn't be surprised either. I assumed earl...I wouldn't be surprised either. I assumed earlier that the NWS was going with advisories instead of warnings because of a northerly component to the wind leading to lake modification. Then I looked at their forecast in depth and it shows a WSW wind for the balance of the brutal cold, no northerly component at all. If I'm not mistaken, that would keep Lake Ontario's influence confined to the immediate shoreline. It's possible that whoever administered the forecast and headlines earlier wasn't completely paying attention.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-18527514098842704562014-01-26T19:02:24.162-05:002014-01-26T19:02:24.162-05:00Scott on his forecast also said brutal WCs Tuesday...Scott on his forecast also said brutal WCs Tuesday morning and he would not be surprised if the advisory goes to a warning level.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-1286100173555736812014-01-26T18:47:19.878-05:002014-01-26T18:47:19.878-05:00Lol you people crack me up sometimes.
Here is a t...Lol you people crack me up sometimes.<br /><br />Here is a tidbit from the NWS Albany discussion:<br /><br />"PRECIP CHANCES WILL ALSO INCREASE TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD...AS A STRONG LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE DEVELOPS FROM THE SOUTHWEST U.S. EXTENDING INTO THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC STATES. SLIGHT MID/UPPER LEVEL TROPOSPHERIC WAVES WILL LIKELY INDUCE LARGE AREAS OF OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION ON THE COLD SIDE OF THIS DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE...WITH THESE FEATURES LIKELY TO BE DIFFICULT TO TIME THIS FAR OUT."<br /><br />This is exactly what I've been preaching about for the past 10 days, a transition to more storms. Notice how there are Winter Storm Watches in effect for parts of the Southeast. Those are related to the first storm in what will likely be a series of them. The transition to storminess was never "pushed back," at least not pertaining to what I've been saying. I did some digging into the past, here are a few statements of mine:<br /><br />From the 17th:<br />"Pretty good indication that the PNA will move closer to neutral by the end of the month, which would bring the southern jet stream back into play and result in a stormy pattern for someone."<br /><br />And the 19th:<br />"It just so happens that we are in an unfavorable pattern where the moist subtropical jet is suppressed, and will be until closer to February. The culprit is, has been and will continue to be the strongly positive PNA. Once that puppy goes neutral/negative in about a week's time the subtropical jet will reopen for business and deliver storm opportunities for the East. There is a lot of shortwave energy out in the Pacific that none of the models are currently seeing, and it all has to head east at some point. I am rather confident that the end of January into early February will be an interesting time for many in the eastern US."<br /><br />Notice how the phrases "end of the month" and "end of January" appear. And right on schedule a substantial storm threat appears for the Southeast and Mid Atlantic. Notice also how I've stated "for someone" and later on "for the East." I never did mention Rochester specifically, or even the Northeast region. Just "the East," as in the eastern quarter of the country. And notice how I said the PNA would drop towards neutral/negative a week after that post from the 19th. And wouldn't you know it, the PNA is currently plummeting towards neutral, and likely soon to be negative. Everything is happening right on schedule, it's just not resulting in any storms in our backyard yet. So after the early week bitter blast the polar vortex will begin its retreat and allow the subtropical jet stream back into the picture. This is painfully evident in nearly all models and ensembles. And as for "Looking through the models I see nothing of importance for the next 7-10 days at least," well that's only if your model of choice is a freaking abacus. Look here:<br /><br />http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller/Image.php?fhr=192&image=data%2Fgfs%2F18%2Fgfs_namer_192_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&param=850_temp_mslp_precip&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M<br /><br />That's a big ol' slug of moisture rising up out of the Gulf on the 18z GFS in about 8 days. I'm not saying this is precisely how I expect it to play out, in fact I don't have any expectations at all regarding specific threats right now. "Oh, but Anon, it's clearly staying south of us on that run." Yes. It is. ON THAT RUN. At that time range it's all about the big picture, and from my perspective that picture looks like a pretty painting. And here's a bonus: the monster storm seen on earlier runs is still there, Hour 228 through Hour 276.<br /><br />/end ramblingAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-16902960613747722712014-01-26T18:32:07.490-05:002014-01-26T18:32:07.490-05:00Sorry Weatherguy misheard him. All quiet with loca...Sorry Weatherguy misheard him. All quiet with local mets on cold. No JN and not even a tweet from KW. Not sure if Scott is on for news 8 he has been for recent Sundays.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-48625746244331029952014-01-26T18:29:20.839-05:002014-01-26T18:29:20.839-05:00He actually said decades, not history... And I agr...He actually said decades, not history... And I agree with everyone else, the NWS and their argument for not placing us under a wind chill warning makes absolutely no sense!Weatherguynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-32783698032680095652014-01-26T18:22:37.323-05:002014-01-26T18:22:37.323-05:00The great MM at 13 says Tuesday morning could be t...The great MM at 13 says Tuesday morning could be the coldest day in the history of Rochester with WCs between 25 to 35 below? Not one thing from News 8 and I think my money is on News 8.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-29199048659955158822014-01-26T17:56:45.155-05:002014-01-26T17:56:45.155-05:00Told you Snowdog it will keep getting pushed back ...Told you Snowdog it will keep getting pushed back farther and farther. Before you know it April here and no storms and they will say pattern change next year with big snow. same old same old the last 3 years then they get mad at me because they all wish cast and I am being realistic funny. We become negative/whinners while they show optomism.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-58735186762344435762014-01-26T17:21:17.463-05:002014-01-26T17:21:17.463-05:00Absurd that some under an advisory and some under ...Absurd that some under an advisory and some under a warning. Really makes no sense. Wind chills will be between minus 20 to minus 30 in all areas Tuesday morning. Either way dangerous cold every where.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-73945179080818590272014-01-26T17:18:49.800-05:002014-01-26T17:18:49.800-05:00Looking through the models I see nothing of import...Looking through the models I see nothing of importance for the next 7-10 days at least. Yike. I hope Anon is right about this pattern change to more active that keeps getting pushed further and further out.Snowdognoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-45735517743833878432014-01-26T17:10:07.887-05:002014-01-26T17:10:07.887-05:00I wish there were snow advisories and warnings out...I wish there were snow advisories and warnings out like East of Lake Ontario. This brutal cold weather does not get me excited at all. It is wasted in my opinion.Snowdognoreply@blogger.com