tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post6565951091732740328..comments2024-02-13T03:39:18.616-05:00Comments on News 8 Weather Blog: RECORD COLD POSSIBLE BUT NOT LIKELY FOR ROCHESTERNews 8 Weatherhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10107233504909304176noreply@blogger.comBlogger55125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-5462066386911325442014-03-05T12:09:14.392-05:002014-03-05T12:09:14.392-05:00After a one-run blip last night, the GGEM is back ...After a one-run blip last night, the GGEM is back on board with the strong storm idea. Sub 1000mb low tracking up to SW PA before transferring to the Mid Atlantic coast and tracking to just SE of Cape Cod as a large 990mb nor'easter. Precip map isn't available yet, but the lion's share of NYS looks to do quite well on this run. Timing would be late Wednesday into Thursday. As with all model depictions at this range, and given the amount of spread still remaining, it is just another possible outcome out of many.Mantis Tobogganhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11104491137465766315noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-52699996554606917972014-03-05T11:49:09.242-05:002014-03-05T11:49:09.242-05:00The GFS updates frame-by-frame on instantweatherma...The GFS updates frame-by-frame on instantweathermaps.com starting around 10:45 am/pm for the runs that actually matter i.e. 00z and 12z. The GGEM updates on meteocentre.com shortly after 12 pm/am for surface pressure, and at later times for other data. And yes, the GGEM is the global Canadian model. The RGEM is basically a high resolution version of the same model, which I mention because I will almost certainly be referencing it at some point in the future.<br /><br />As of its 12z run, the GFS still can't decide what it wants to do with next week's storm. More skipping around between various ideas, but the pieces are still there. Our very brief general consensus from last night has clearly gone down the drain.Mantis Tobogganhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11104491137465766315noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-54692107298041407962014-03-05T11:40:41.536-05:002014-03-05T11:40:41.536-05:00I have zero plans to leave here anytime soon. The ...I have zero plans to leave here anytime soon. The haters and negative nancies can be irritating sometimes, but they've never made me consider leaving. Thank you for the kind words :)Mantis Tobogganhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11104491137465766315noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-88568175268043540272014-03-05T10:01:38.244-05:002014-03-05T10:01:38.244-05:00CCCC next updates GFS at 10:30am and EURO at 1:00p...CCCC next updates GFS at 10:30am and EURO at 1:00pm? When does the GGEM run and is that the same as the Canadian Model?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-67827197851035051102014-03-05T09:58:10.016-05:002014-03-05T09:58:10.016-05:00well stated CCCC, please continue with what you do...well stated CCCC, please continue with what you do on this blog. Dont let the haters and negative nancy's deter you. I think most can agree with me when I say you have been the rock that has held this blog together most of this winter. We obviously can't rely on any posts from news 8, so your insight has been very nice to ready on a daily basis. I also enjoy your responses to those who try to pick apart your posts. keep it up. thank you.farmingtonnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-42109157630011343602014-03-05T09:47:01.403-05:002014-03-05T09:47:01.403-05:00The Euro has been rather consistent for several ru...The Euro has been rather consistent for several runs in a row, and has a major snowstorm in our region. The GFS has been bouncing around like crazy but does at least show a storm. The GGEM did have some consistency before, but that went out the window with the 00z run and it now has more of a flat system. Still lots of time to sort this out. As with pretty much every storm this season, suppression could become an issue, but based on the strength of the incoming arctic high it shouldn't be as problematic as it was early this week. I will not favor any particular track as this is still more than a week out, but the Euro has been the most consistent relative to the other global models. With that, I am going to place the most stock into how it trends for the near future unless it experiences any big jumps. As of now, no clear trend is evident.Mantis Tobogganhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11104491137465766315noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-59119745608159094842014-03-05T09:06:52.671-05:002014-03-05T09:06:52.671-05:00The grass is always whiter on the other side.The grass is always whiter on the other side.Spteadsheet Guynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-11379292528030424302014-03-05T08:06:15.541-05:002014-03-05T08:06:15.541-05:00CCCC any updates on the models over night? I know ...CCCC any updates on the models over night? I know you said the Oz GFS showed a storm at least. What about the EURO and other models still showing the storm potential for mid next week?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-19903816221217276922014-03-05T06:20:21.630-05:002014-03-05T06:20:21.630-05:00My opinion is that it will be another miss South a...My opinion is that it will be another miss South and East. That has been the way things have gone this year for the most part. It has been at least a month since we had our last significant event. I did not realize that we are 20" below Buffalo and Syracuse this year.Snowdognoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-86300521122777946882014-03-04T23:42:06.902-05:002014-03-04T23:42:06.902-05:00Way sooner than expected, the GFS comes in with a ...Way sooner than expected, the GFS comes in with a strong consolidated storm system around the time frame of interest. Its location is far from ideal, but that's a relatively unimportant detail right now. What matters is that all major global models capable of going out to that range now have the storm.Mantis Tobogganhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11104491137465766315noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-76775246477136360972014-03-04T23:00:50.429-05:002014-03-04T23:00:50.429-05:00It really all depends on where the core of the col...It really all depends on where the core of the cold air decides to hang out and/or how it arrives. Having it centered over eastern Canada like it is, and has been a lot of this season, is not conducive for snowfall here. Too much subsidence i.e. sinking air. If it finds itself over the western Lakes instead then we can have well below normal temps and well above normal snowfall simultaneously, because there will be much less subsidence. Or if it's being pulled down by a departing cyclone then we can land ourselves some hefty lake effect if it departs slowly enough, owing to the cyclone infusing the cold air with moisture. "Warmer" winters can only generate more snowfall if we get lucky regarding timing and placement of large scale features during the infrequent stretches that have colder air. By and large, however, they produce less snowfall than colder ones.Mantis Tobogganhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11104491137465766315noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-72030383694731727122014-03-04T21:57:33.377-05:002014-03-04T21:57:33.377-05:00"In colder decades, such as the 50s, our annu..."In colder decades, such as the 50s, our annual snowfall was significantly lower but duration of snowpack longer"<br /><br /><br />Thank you for pointing that out.. looking at snow total history, there are some pretty bleak stretches in there.. as far as snow totals go. Caledonianoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-51596769014926530442014-03-04T21:38:54.102-05:002014-03-04T21:38:54.102-05:00Well rest assured this isn't a place where glo...Well rest assured this isn't a place where global warming is discussed very often. It cropped up by chance only a few times recently. It very likely won't happen again any time soon. When I said "half decent" I truly did mean "good," guess that was just a semantics thing and I probably should've just used better wording. And earlier I was just trying to make a point that KW isn't "my boy" as it was put rather crassly by someone else. Nothing has been taken personally. Thanks for the compliment on my "amazing knowledge of weather," and please don't allow my crotchety ranting and raving to deter you from posting :)<br /><br />Back to weather...Bernie Rayno likes the big storm idea for next week. Although I must say he hasn't been quite in his element lately.Mantis Tobogganhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11104491137465766315noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-40187497229502155822014-03-04T21:23:33.373-05:002014-03-04T21:23:33.373-05:00Weatherguy, you're absolutely right. That'...Weatherguy, you're absolutely right. That's why I thought this was one blog I could come to without it.<br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-36816636763524082042014-03-04T21:21:04.642-05:002014-03-04T21:21:04.642-05:00CCCC you said KW was a half decent weather forecas...CCCC you said KW was a half decent weather forecaster, not good, not even plain decent. By creds, I mean look at his resume, and not just as a local forecaster.<br /><br />It was relevant to criticize KW and his beliefs on this blog?<br /><br />Of course Scott, myself and I'm sure everyone else on this blog appreciates the principles of the First Amendment. I just don't think he would appreciate people criticizing other local Meteorologists on his blog.<br /><br />We can go round and round on climate change and weather, and frankly both sides misuse them when they try and make a point when either one suits their belief. <br /><br />Finally, I totally respect your amazing knowledge of weather. For the most part I sit back and admire you and others on this blog. Please don't take this personal. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-23173313818580236042014-03-04T21:20:35.827-05:002014-03-04T21:20:35.827-05:00Discussing global warming is like discussing polit...Discussing global warming is like discussing politics, nobody wins...Weatherguynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-39083835853300786172014-03-04T20:50:33.791-05:002014-03-04T20:50:33.791-05:00"I disagree on your assessment of KW's cr..."I disagree on your assessment of KW's creds."<br />What assessment did I give other than saying he's a good forecaster? Apparently we can at least agree on that. I see no problem here.<br /><br />"I didn't know this blog was set up to criticize other forecasters either. What his beliefs are have nothing to do with this blog..."<br />It was relevant in the moment.<br /><br />"...or even his meteorological skills."<br />Never tied the two together.<br /><br />"I don't think Scott would appreciate criticism of other local meteorologists on his blog."<br />I'm sure he appreciates the principles of the First Amendment though.<br /><br />"Sorry, but climate change is something over a long period of time. The weather on this blog, basically talks about weather a week or so out."<br />Stop talking like weather and climate change aren't related. If the topic ever comes up in passing then I see no problem discussing it. If it's the political elements of climate change you're referring to then yes, we should steer clear of discussing those. Completely agree there. This stuff isn't even discussed very often here anyway.Mantis Tobogganhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11104491137465766315noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-55026771955241141092014-03-04T20:44:34.648-05:002014-03-04T20:44:34.648-05:00I wouldn't be surprised if we end up below 100...I wouldn't be surprised if we end up below 100" at all. This has been a cold winter, dominated by arctic Highs blasting in from the north and west. These patterns are not good snow makers. In colder decades, such as the 50s, our annual snowfall was significantly lower but duration of snowpack longer. Ironically, our "warmer" winters generate more snow than cold ones like this one (warmth, relatively speaking)<br /><br />Chris now in PenfieldAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-28176740122960643592014-03-04T20:32:09.418-05:002014-03-04T20:32:09.418-05:00Sorry, but climate change is something over a lon...Sorry, but climate change is something over a long period of time. The weather on this blog, basically talks about weather a week or so out. I disagree on your assessment of KW's creds. You aren't checking close enough. I didn't know this blog was set up to criticize other forecasters either. What his beliefs are have nothing to do with this blog, or even his meteorological skills. This is not Don Paul's site. I don't think Scott would appreciate criticism of other local meteorologists on his blog. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-9788832129584366822014-03-04T20:16:39.223-05:002014-03-04T20:16:39.223-05:00http://dictionary.cambridge.org/us/dictionary/brit...http://dictionary.cambridge.org/us/dictionary/british/half-decent<br />"quite good or skilled"<br /><br />So yes, half decent. And he denies the immense likelihood that global warming is happening, that makes him a denier. Climate change relates directly to weather, therefore it is something that can be discussed here. Don Paul allows climate change talk on his blog, why can't it be allowed here?Mantis Tobogganhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11104491137465766315noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-75841498171410680262014-03-04T19:52:58.789-05:002014-03-04T19:52:58.789-05:00I mean all local channels.I mean all local channels.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-82908463296278433942014-03-04T19:52:08.975-05:002014-03-04T19:52:08.975-05:00Here we go. That's twice now with the denier c...Here we go. That's twice now with the denier card. I thought this was a weather forum. I wish people would keep their climate change views on a blog that deals with it. KW a half way decent forecaster? Look at his creds sometime. I think every forecaster on all 3 channels do a fine job and deserve respect. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-52801021343531548902014-03-04T18:51:23.840-05:002014-03-04T18:51:23.840-05:00One week takes us to the end of next Tuesday. Wedn...One week takes us to the end of next Tuesday. Wednesday is outside the scope of the 7 day forecast, and we all know Scott would never go outside those bounds unless he caught a particularly strong whiff of something brewing. As of now it is only a faint whiff.<br /><br />I'm not a KW fan. He's a half decent forecaster but is one of the more hard-lining global warming deniers out there. Always tries to spin cold related events to suit his viewpoints and flat out rejects any evidence pointing to AGW. In this regard, he has become far too politicized and chooses to ignore sound science in favor of his views.Mantis Tobogganhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11104491137465766315noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-39893366829762248982014-03-04T18:11:51.914-05:002014-03-04T18:11:51.914-05:00CCCC your boy KW hints at something big but moved ...CCCC your boy KW hints at something big but moved back a day to next Wed/Thursday. Rochester's most accurate sees nothing for at least a week. I think nothing and like my odds better plus I have RMA on my side.Namenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-65647659586956423822014-03-04T18:00:00.396-05:002014-03-04T18:00:00.396-05:00Seems as though all of the little shortwaves that ...Seems as though all of the little shortwaves that were projected before, such as the Sunday system, have been shoveled down to this time period and used to spawn the beast seen on the foreign models. That's just how it looks to me at a glance however.<br /><br />One more piece favoring the phased storm: some semblance of North Atlantic blocking is projected to develop by early next week. This does not mesh well with the progressive separate stream idea. Regardless, we're still dealing with something 9 days away, and split flow situations are always tricky. I grant only a slight edge to the foreign models at the moment, but if current trends continue that edge will become substantially less slight.Mantis Tobogganhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11104491137465766315noreply@blogger.com