tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post7066181095032227574..comments2024-02-13T03:39:18.616-05:00Comments on News 8 Weather Blog: Cold for All, & Lake Snow for SomeNews 8 Weatherhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10107233504909304176noreply@blogger.comBlogger61125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-56128586134537483332014-02-12T11:21:07.306-05:002014-02-12T11:21:07.306-05:00Think the Flower City is missing out on a Blizzard...Think the Flower City is missing out on a Blizzard tomorrow and Friday. Mark that down!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-63395940788307321672014-02-12T09:05:39.806-05:002014-02-12T09:05:39.806-05:00His Model must have shiftedHis Model must have shiftedAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-42492052648940756822014-02-12T08:17:32.425-05:002014-02-12T08:17:32.425-05:00The other day you noted 3 weeks, today it is 4? The other day you noted 3 weeks, today it is 4? Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-89065806344688265332014-02-12T07:31:31.025-05:002014-02-12T07:31:31.025-05:00There will be a Blizzard in the Flower City within...There will be a Blizzard in the Flower City within 4 weeks. Mark it down!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-74475123712556698562014-02-11T20:35:04.783-05:002014-02-11T20:35:04.783-05:00I am ready for warmer temps.I am ready for warmer temps.Snowdognoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-8632808957349419012014-02-11T20:11:23.026-05:002014-02-11T20:11:23.026-05:00From the NWS:
"...MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANC...From the NWS:<br /><br />"...MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO POINT TOWARDS THE POTENTIAL OF A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE LATER NEXT WEEK. THE MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO CONSOLIDATE OVER ALASKA AND THE WEST COAST OF CANADA...WHICH WOULD ALLOW PACIFIC AIR TO FLOOD THE NATION FROM WEST TO EAST. THIS MAY BRING A THAW TO THE REGION BY LATER NEXT WEEK WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR AT LEAST A FEW DAYS...AND MAYBE LONGER. THE ECMWF KEEPS A STRONGER TROUGH IN SOUTHEAST CANADA THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK...WHICH WOULD INCREASE THE LIKELIHOOD OF WEAK BACKDOOR FRONTS WHICH WOULD CUT OFF THE WARM AIR BEFORE IT REACHES THIS FAR EAST. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS IT MAY KEEP MOST OF THE WARM AIR LOCKED JUST TO OUR WEST FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF THIS PATTERN CHANGE."<br /><br />So it looks like a 2 to 4, maybe 5 day warmup at this point, part of which may be spoiled by backdoor cold fronts. Quite unusual to be reading about those in mid February, as they are typically an element of early spring not late winter. Either way, the warmup will be strictly temporary.Mantis Tobogganhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11104491137465766315noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-35498858803478200062014-02-11T19:43:26.347-05:002014-02-11T19:43:26.347-05:00I remember those storms-- no fun. Extreme cold and...I remember those storms-- no fun. Extreme cold and high winds too as I recall. No fun. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-88251887063618049862014-02-11T19:29:48.947-05:002014-02-11T19:29:48.947-05:00The only thing I heard Scott say tonight was FIFTY...The only thing I heard Scott say tonight was FIFTY. There IS hope this agony is going to end. <br />BTW great news about "the miss". I'm sure most (99%) of the folks in the path of that monster would rather not be.<br /><br />Any ideas how long "warm up" will hang in there? Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-73055793019725069892014-02-11T17:31:38.070-05:002014-02-11T17:31:38.070-05:00But within 48 hours and with the critical players ...But within 48 hours and with the critical players already fully sampled? Highly unlikely IMO. I do think we'll see additional small movements of the track with time, perhaps even a bit further west, but not enough to warrant substantial snowfall amounts in our region.Mantis Tobogganhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11104491137465766315noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-8259173268016883352014-02-11T17:28:55.612-05:002014-02-11T17:28:55.612-05:00It actually does phase later on once the coastal i...It actually does phase later on once the coastal is up near Atlantic Canada, but I'm guessing the distance between the two systems combined with their similar strong intensity leads to ridging (and therefore drying) between them until that point. I believe the same thing happened last year with the monster storm in early February, but since the northern stream low was weaker, more southerly and closer to the coastal at the onset the temporary ridging was further east and less pronounced, and the two systems phased sooner. That ridging could be why CNY saw lesser snow amounts than places both east and west. This is all just educated guessing on my part though, so take it for what it's worth.Mantis Tobogganhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11104491137465766315noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-84763466754882000792014-02-11T17:26:17.655-05:002014-02-11T17:26:17.655-05:00CCCC you never know that LP over Michigan slows do...CCCC you never know that LP over Michigan slows down and we get a BIG jump west on the next GFS and EURO and we are getting a foot. It has happen before.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-89300249495628098582014-02-11T17:20:05.369-05:002014-02-11T17:20:05.369-05:00The 18z GFS says wagons west. Again. It's been...The 18z GFS says wagons west. Again. It's been correcting towards the foreign models (which have been ticking slightly west themselves) since yesterday morning. I want to reiterate that we are completely out of the running for a significant snowfall, and 95% out of the running for a moderate one, but a 1-2 inch snowfall from the edge of the precip shield looks like a plausible outcome.<br /><br />Now if I wanted to do some big league cherrypicking, I would ride the 18z RGEM. It tracks the low through the coastal plain, and the upstream "kicker" becomes more like a "puller" instead and drags the coastal towards the NW. We end up with what looks like a moderate snowfall:<br /><br />http://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_02_2014/post-3675-0-09554900-1392153824.gif<br /><br />The off runs of the RGEM are notorious for doing some very strange things, so obviously the outcome it depicts isn't worth a hill of beans right now, or probably ever.Mantis Tobogganhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11104491137465766315noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-84106915827099371912014-02-11T17:19:33.449-05:002014-02-11T17:19:33.449-05:00I should have said didn't phase.I should have said didn't phase.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-11633238428063764462014-02-11T17:13:50.920-05:002014-02-11T17:13:50.920-05:00CCCC why can't that phase with the LP coming u...CCCC why can't that phase with the LP coming up the coast to form a monster storm?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-37610936832714599162014-02-11T17:08:14.562-05:002014-02-11T17:08:14.562-05:00Or the low cuts up through the Great Lakes instead...Or the low cuts up through the Great Lakes instead. That type of track would be more climatologically favored.Mantis Tobogganhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11104491137465766315noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-35045928412467842942014-02-11T16:53:01.341-05:002014-02-11T16:53:01.341-05:00That darn strong LP over Michigan is killing us or...That darn strong LP over Michigan is killing us or this would have gone through central Pa. and we get a BIG storm. Oh well.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-6133656517001030832014-02-11T15:39:46.327-05:002014-02-11T15:39:46.327-05:00So if our winter weather isn't particularly in...So if our winter weather isn't particularly interesting at the moment.<br /><br />Any thoughts on what will happen in places like Atlanta and upstate South Carolina? Major ice storm? How much snow? How many loaves of bread are still available in the state of Georgia?Spreadsheet Guynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-31351465696851737552014-02-11T14:51:35.273-05:002014-02-11T14:51:35.273-05:00Lol that's definitely not happening. But if th...Lol that's definitely not happening. But if the current trend holds we may be in line for an inch or two. This has the look of a storm that centers the heaviest snow along a Scranton, PA to Portland, ME line.Mantis Tobogganhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11104491137465766315noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-32666315095735445372014-02-11T14:46:17.115-05:002014-02-11T14:46:17.115-05:00CCCC never gives up and now he has Calvin Johnson ...CCCC never gives up and now he has Calvin Johnson in the pattern ha ha it may move 100 miles west and explode and we will get 2 feet of snow. A surprise!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-58041938625152835952014-02-11T14:38:27.608-05:002014-02-11T14:38:27.608-05:00There will be a Blizzard in the Flower City within...There will be a Blizzard in the Flower City within the next 3 weeks. Mark it down!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-35135364804734302062014-02-11T14:13:34.963-05:002014-02-11T14:13:34.963-05:00Strike that last bit...the GGEM also throws some l...Strike that last bit...the GGEM also throws some light snow back our way, with a very brief period of moderate snow as the system pulls away. This is based off of simulated radar so it isn't worth much right now.<br /><br />The hail mary is in the air and Calvin Johnson is triple covered, but he's fighting hard for space...Mantis Tobogganhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11104491137465766315noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-49708308845395854272014-02-11T14:07:20.671-05:002014-02-11T14:07:20.671-05:00Our region gets fringed by the coastal storm on th...Our region gets fringed by the coastal storm on the latest Euro model run. This is why I didn't want to give up on the possibility of fringe snowfall from the system, and now the Euro appears to be leading the way with westward ticks over time along with a slowly expanding precip shield. The more easterly American models seem to be playing catch-up to the westerly foreign models at the moment. That said, the Euro is currently the only model to show any precipitation this far west as far as I know.Mantis Tobogganhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11104491137465766315noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-82313490467849462962014-02-11T13:46:18.111-05:002014-02-11T13:46:18.111-05:00This storm doesn't really look to produce much...This storm doesn't really look to produce much more snow than what was produced with last week's storm. The biggest difference will be with the amount of wind...many places from eastern PA up through the Canadian Maritimes should see blizzard conditions with such a wrapped up low. I'm not sure we'll get another opportunity at a big storm either, because there is literally no way to be completely sure. One thing I am sure of is that we have plenty of time remaining for potential opportunities. St Paddy's Day is the unofficial cutoff date for big winter storms in WNY.Mantis Tobogganhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11104491137465766315noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-34758654621572727652014-02-11T13:13:42.976-05:002014-02-11T13:13:42.976-05:00Boy we missed out on a BIG storm this time. Not su...Boy we missed out on a BIG storm this time. Not sure we will have another opportunity this winter. Guess people are right we do not live in a place where you get a BIG storm. Bnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-26937284960742081152014-02-11T11:12:36.927-05:002014-02-11T11:12:36.927-05:00NAILED IT!
ChrisNAILED IT!<br />ChrisAnonymousnoreply@blogger.com