tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post714721938755303596..comments2024-02-13T03:39:18.616-05:00Comments on News 8 Weather Blog: A LITTLE SHOT OF SNOW LATE TONIGHT - TUESDAY News 8 Weatherhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10107233504909304176noreply@blogger.comBlogger69125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-5254455377982482492014-02-19T15:43:07.248-05:002014-02-19T15:43:07.248-05:00High Wind Watch now in effect into Friday afternoo...High Wind Watch now in effect into Friday afternoon, beginning Thursday evening.Mantis Tobogganhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11104491137465766315noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-16402087009904678912014-02-19T14:26:29.877-05:002014-02-19T14:26:29.877-05:00The rest of humanity is too normal for my liking :...The rest of humanity is too normal for my liking :P<br /><br />A few days of mild temps is certainly welcomed by me though.Mantis Tobogganhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11104491137465766315noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-70470467060624022842014-02-19T14:14:15.910-05:002014-02-19T14:14:15.910-05:00Actually only a few select people here are disappo...Actually only a few select people here are disappointed. The rest of humanity welcomes the warm weather and hopefully spring soon.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-60376406946401116972014-02-19T14:10:20.297-05:002014-02-19T14:10:20.297-05:00Models have been too progressive (positive tilted)...Models have been too progressive (positive tilted) with troughs all season long. It's not unreasonable to think that may be the case again here. And storms don't need to be inland to impact Rochester.Mantis Tobogganhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11104491137465766315noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-45280292178901877122014-02-19T14:03:14.163-05:002014-02-19T14:03:14.163-05:00Yet another "nothing" at Hour 240 at the...Yet another "nothing" at Hour 240 at the NC/VA border. Second straight run showing a large storm in that time frame:<br /><br />http://www.instantweathermaps.com/ECMWF-php/showmap-ecmwf.php?run=2014021912&region=USA&var=PRMSL_msl&hour=240<br /><br />"But Carol, that's clearly too far south and will not impact Rochester."<br /><br />Because as we all know, operational models are totally and completely accurate from 10 days out. Except for when they're not, which is always. The big picture is as good as we can do at the moment.Mantis Tobogganhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11104491137465766315noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-89041800731772844222014-02-19T14:02:20.879-05:002014-02-19T14:02:20.879-05:00That 995mb blob will be feeding the fish well. The...That 995mb blob will be feeding the fish well. The jets and negative tilts are not there for a storm to come far enough inland to impact Rochester.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-64795569793133633992014-02-19T13:58:18.172-05:002014-02-19T13:58:18.172-05:00I know everyone is disappointed about the warm tem...I know everyone is disappointed about the warm temperatures right not; but how nice is it to step outside and see/feel the sun. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-36209415525102332302014-02-19T13:43:45.851-05:002014-02-19T13:43:45.851-05:00What site are you accessing where the 12z Euro sho...What site are you accessing where the 12z Euro shows all 10 days? Because none of the sites I know of are past Day 8 yet.<br /><br />http://www.instantweathermaps.com/ECMWF-php/showmap-ecmwf.php?run=2014021912&region=USA&var=PRMSL_msl&hour=168<br /><br />That's a big ol' 995 mb blob of nothing sitting just off the coast.Mantis Tobogganhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11104491137465766315noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-37398530676902649512014-02-19T13:35:15.749-05:002014-02-19T13:35:15.749-05:0012z EURO has nothing for storms the 10 days. Snowd...12z EURO has nothing for storms the 10 days. Snowdog you may be on to something with your under 100 inches this season I hate to say it.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-5281941263234993242014-02-19T13:30:43.119-05:002014-02-19T13:30:43.119-05:00There will be a Blizzard within the next 3 weeks i...There will be a Blizzard within the next 3 weeks in the Flower City. Mark it down.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-295405336440488652014-02-19T13:00:06.586-05:002014-02-19T13:00:06.586-05:00Snowdog relax! Without cold air, then there is ze...Snowdog relax! Without cold air, then there is zero chance of any snow. Plus with cold air then at least whatever snow pack remains will be preserved and make it easy to build upon when we DO get snow. <br />Andy<br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-60917468075788210932014-02-19T12:57:24.678-05:002014-02-19T12:57:24.678-05:00"If""If"Mantis Tobogganhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11104491137465766315noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-1279940262192412262014-02-19T12:18:26.941-05:002014-02-19T12:18:26.941-05:00Cold air, yuck. If it does not come with snow it i...Cold air, yuck. If it does not come with snow it is useless. Sorry.Snowdognoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-54917658853018644592014-02-19T10:50:17.332-05:002014-02-19T10:50:17.332-05:00Looks like the latest EURO still puts us in the -2...Looks like the latest EURO still puts us in the -25C in ten days days. That would put us below 0 again?Bnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-71182194677659973892014-02-19T07:44:26.951-05:002014-02-19T07:44:26.951-05:00So are you predicting that by the end of next week...So are you predicting that by the end of next week, we will have received over 12" of snow? <br /><br />I think it is important to note that many of the local weather folks have commented that the snow measurements done at the airport have been incorrect, and in many areas we are near or close to 100" -- talk to folks who live in Greece, Webster, etc. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-62421212789342487882014-02-18T22:48:23.066-05:002014-02-18T22:48:23.066-05:00There will be a Blizzard in the Flower City within...There will be a Blizzard in the Flower City within the next 2 weeks. Mark it down!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-62571398116228042912014-02-18T20:50:30.094-05:002014-02-18T20:50:30.094-05:00CCCC, I agree with you. And I truly believe by the...CCCC, I agree with you. And I truly believe by the end of next week we will be nearing 90" of snow on the season. We should easily surpass 100" of snow on the season, especially with March slated to be cold and snowy.Weatherguynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-54729660606204976502014-02-18T19:55:24.286-05:002014-02-18T19:55:24.286-05:00I want to comment further on Andy's post from ...I want to comment further on Andy's post from not long ago, because it now holds a good deal more clout than it did at that time. He said that a seasonal total below 100 inches was unlikely this season based on probability and snowfall progressions of seasons similar to this one. Today's Euro Weekly run shows below normal temperatures hanging around for a lot of March. Persistent troughs in East Asia and the Bering Sea region support this outlook, as those should eventually translate downstream to North America. Our seasonal snowfall tally so far is 78.6 inches, or 21.4 inches shy of the century mark. It would seem we have at least a month of cold remaining to gain that 21.4 inches, possibly in the form of large storms. Storms happen when cold air clashes with warm subtropical air. March is a month where warm subtropical air begins to feed northward in abundance. Those can (and frequently do) run into substantially cold air masses, which is why March is known for robust storms. We are looking at a large portion of March featuring cold air in place, with occasional interruptions. The only real question pertains to where the core of the cold sets up, but even if it sits too far east and/or south we can still get frequent clippers and lake effect. So the way I see it is this: we will likely reach or surpass 100 inches for the season, either by nickel-and-diming our way there in small pieces via clippers and lake effect or by blasting our way there in medium to large chunks via synoptic storms. Or maybe (probably) a mixture of both, alternating over time.Mantis Tobogganhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11104491137465766315noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-3287429645925768662014-02-18T19:29:22.493-05:002014-02-18T19:29:22.493-05:00http://www.instantweathermaps.com/ECMWF-php/showma...http://www.instantweathermaps.com/ECMWF-php/showmap-ecmwf.php?run=2014021812&region=USA&var=PRMSL_msl&hour=192<br /><br />Yep, just a whole lotta nothing chilling out at 970 mb off the coast. Recall the typical trend for storms at that range this season, and you'll see that a "quiet" pattern next week is not as set in stone as you might think. There's also this from the NWS discussion:<br /><br />"SEVERAL SMALL SCALE WAVES WILL WORK THROUGH THE FLOW BRINGING CHANCES FOR SNOW THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SOME LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOWS LIKELY...ESPECIALLY IN THE MONDAY AND TUESDAY TIME FRAME."<br /><br />Looks about as quiet as a nest of angry hornets to me...Mantis Tobogganhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11104491137465766315noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-48245223620799166162014-02-18T18:55:23.072-05:002014-02-18T18:55:23.072-05:00Can't read a weather chart to save my life, bu...Can't read a weather chart to save my life, but I have this feeling that Spring won't be coming around here for a long time. 0 degrees in March. Oh sure, there will probably be some nicer days mixed in, but will it catch on? I remember several snowy April days one year sometime in the 90's. How about the storm around Mother's Day years ago. Something like 8" of wet heavy snow. It could be one of those years. Anyone else have that feeling? Snow/cold lovers paradise.<br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-4706061224837657152014-02-18T18:42:04.919-05:002014-02-18T18:42:04.919-05:00Nothing shows on the models right now. It looks to...Nothing shows on the models right now. It looks to be pretty quiet next week with not a lot of snow. I am sticking with my thought that we will end up less than 100" this year. Just my opinion. March can go either way.Snowdognoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-66684448701630243822014-02-18T16:22:32.059-05:002014-02-18T16:22:32.059-05:00I remember back in March 1993 we had the memorable...I remember back in March 1993 we had the memorable snowstorm and then one week later, like someone threw a light switch, it was spring and the weather stayed nice from that point on. Maybe history will repeat its self again like that this March...bitter cold one week, then spring like temps the next. or maybe I'm just doing a lot of wishful thinking.Sal in Lyonsnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-74805318764595330062014-02-18T16:00:20.089-05:002014-02-18T16:00:20.089-05:00Scott just tweeted that temps COULD get below zero...Scott just tweeted that temps COULD get below zero during the first few days of March. That would be pretty nuts.Mantis Tobogganhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11104491137465766315noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-71166722814046899882014-02-18T15:57:05.575-05:002014-02-18T15:57:05.575-05:00Sorry guys, it was me, but it cut out most of my p...Sorry guys, it was me, but it cut out most of my post for some reason!!! Records are going to be shattered next week... if these crazy models verified a week out. Don't think it's going to be as cold as some ensembles are hinting at, but it would not surprise me if we have a few days not getting out of the single digits with bouts of lake snow. Winter looks to lock back in for a while after this weekend. Weatherguynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-86001460221864682432014-02-18T15:43:14.727-05:002014-02-18T15:43:14.727-05:00That depends on how next week's storm potentia...That depends on how next week's storm potential pans out. If it doesn't happen, or if it misses to our south, we might have to wait awhile.Mantis Tobogganhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11104491137465766315noreply@blogger.com