tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post8092094500124708540..comments2024-02-13T03:39:18.616-05:00Comments on News 8 Weather Blog: 11PM MONDAY NIGHT STORM UPDATENews 8 Weatherhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10107233504909304176noreply@blogger.comBlogger110125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-57650275520230291742014-03-11T18:12:34.741-04:002014-03-11T18:12:34.741-04:00His total...lolHis total...lolAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-50987312239106948402014-03-11T17:32:22.856-04:002014-03-11T17:32:22.856-04:00Some schools have closed already for tomorrow.Some schools have closed already for tomorrow.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-22858384157747115572014-03-11T17:25:37.527-04:002014-03-11T17:25:37.527-04:00And if one took a range from the 25th percentile t...And if one took a range from the 25th percentile to the 75th percentile, which is well within one standard deviation, then a snowfall range of 1-2 feet can be derived.Mantis Tobogganhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11104491137465766315noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-68492983155264839982014-03-11T17:21:46.124-04:002014-03-11T17:21:46.124-04:00I'm just waiting for Scott to come on here and...I'm just waiting for Scott to come on here and give us reasons why this numbers are too high but boy that would make this really memorable! farmingtonnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-90851674081992291492014-03-11T17:18:05.793-04:002014-03-11T17:18:05.793-04:00the 95th percentile shows 27-30 inches of snow acr...the 95th percentile shows 27-30 inches of snow across us. I know this is probably too high but that is the 95th percentile.Charlesnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-84504075941327059912014-03-11T17:14:16.042-04:002014-03-11T17:14:16.042-04:00Check out this image taken today:
http://coastwat...Check out this image taken today:<br /><br />http://coastwatch.glerl.noaa.gov/webdata/cwops/webdata/modis/buf_img/a1.14070.1804.LakeOntario.143.250m.jpg<br /><br />Rest assured, lake enhancement will be a factor.Mantis Tobogganhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11104491137465766315noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-76241041760965084312014-03-11T17:13:11.262-04:002014-03-11T17:13:11.262-04:00Tweeted by Reed Timmer just now:
https://twitter....Tweeted by Reed Timmer just now:<br /><br />https://twitter.com/reedtimmerTVN/status/443492588302004224/photo/1/largeMantis Tobogganhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11104491137465766315noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-15060556021170094672014-03-11T17:12:01.820-04:002014-03-11T17:12:01.820-04:00Still no new post? Not hearing any talk from mets ...Still no new post? Not hearing any talk from mets now about lake enhancement?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-36022904217173241432014-03-11T17:11:27.811-04:002014-03-11T17:11:27.811-04:00SREFs continue to be bullish with a range of 20-30...SREFs continue to be bullish with a range of 20-30 inches discounting outlier-ish members. Again, they're initialized off of the wet-biased NAM. Scale it back by two thirds to get something more reasonable.Mantis Tobogganhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11104491137465766315noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-92050736729450661162014-03-11T17:08:07.735-04:002014-03-11T17:08:07.735-04:00We might get 6-12 by 4pm tomorrow if that's wh...We might get 6-12 by 4pm tomorrow if that's what he was referring to...Mantis Tobogganhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11104491137465766315noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-24696740602564826942014-03-11T17:04:44.116-04:002014-03-11T17:04:44.116-04:00Dan Russell at TW News has only 6-12.Dan Russell at TW News has only 6-12.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-74850674431775174112014-03-11T16:39:15.405-04:002014-03-11T16:39:15.405-04:00Can't, Stop Refreshing!Can't, Stop Refreshing!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-79220966120504923672014-03-11T16:37:57.738-04:002014-03-11T16:37:57.738-04:00No one should jump on board with 30 inch amounts. ...No one should jump on board with 30 inch amounts. The NAM doesn't even depict that anymore, but then again amounts like that seemingly always occur by surprise. 12-20 inches, as unbelievable at it may be, seems reasonable.Mantis Tobogganhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11104491137465766315noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-64707946639883611342014-03-11T16:35:33.350-04:002014-03-11T16:35:33.350-04:00CCCC what did recent NAM show and what are the oth...CCCC what did recent NAM show and what are the other shorter range meso models?Bnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-67020605073272588582014-03-11T16:32:49.844-04:002014-03-11T16:32:49.844-04:00Also remember that the 14 to 18 inches is only til...Also remember that the 14 to 18 inches is only till 11 PM there will be more after that about an additional 3-6 after 11 PM.<br />Charlesnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-80707355431809693942014-03-11T16:32:11.277-04:002014-03-11T16:32:11.277-04:00Who knows. No-one wants to come out and say 30&quo...Who knows. No-one wants to come out and say 30" of snow, but it has happend before when it was not forecasted. If I was a Meteorologist I do not think I would be bold enough to say 30". It could still happen though. Hopefully this will be a memorable storm for us.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-88822572492285893662014-03-11T16:28:20.869-04:002014-03-11T16:28:20.869-04:00The NAM is scaring me a little with how consistent...The NAM is scaring me a little with how consistent it's been with higher amounts. It actually ticked up slightly from 12z. We're starting to get into its element a bit too. It'll be interesting to see what the other shorter range meso models show as combining those tends to produce pretty accurate QPF predictions.Mantis Tobogganhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11104491137465766315noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-18341278397789364122014-03-11T16:23:28.060-04:002014-03-11T16:23:28.060-04:00Scott just posted an update on FB. Looking like a ...Scott just posted an update on FB. Looking like a general 10 to 18 inches for most of us.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-44529265908844062262014-03-11T16:22:47.905-04:002014-03-11T16:22:47.905-04:00KW lowered his totals to 12-16 with higher amounts...KW lowered his totals to 12-16 with higher amounts near the lake.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-70223803331780852382014-03-11T16:14:54.660-04:002014-03-11T16:14:54.660-04:00Any superintendents that don't close are being...Any superintendents that don't close are being outright foolish. The morning commute may not be too rough, but conditions will deteriorate through the late morning hours and remain hazardous through much of the evening.Mantis Tobogganhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11104491137465766315noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-54651470877060280102014-03-11T16:10:04.219-04:002014-03-11T16:10:04.219-04:00Not even thinking about next week's potential ...Not even thinking about next week's potential at the moment, but my first impression of it at a glance is that it remains well south.Mantis Tobogganhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11104491137465766315noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-1028098483040352972014-03-11T16:09:54.404-04:002014-03-11T16:09:54.404-04:00There will be a Blizzard in the Flower City within...There will be a Blizzard in the Flower City within 24 hours. Mark it down!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-15742321194041264632014-03-11T16:08:48.846-04:002014-03-11T16:08:48.846-04:00Here's what the NWS discussion has to say abou...Here's what the NWS discussion has to say about that:<br /><br />"THE WORST CONDITIONS OF ALL WILL LIKELY BE ALONG THE NIAGARA-OSWEGO COUNTY CORRIDOR WHERE THE WINDS WILL BE ENHANCED FURTHER BY LAKE ONTARIO...AND COULD WELL REACH 25-35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AS HIGH AS 45 MPH...WHICH IF REALIZED WOULD RESULT IN NEAR-TO-OUTRIGHT BLIZZARD CONDITIONS IN THIS STRIP OF COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE GREATER ROCHESTER AREA. GIVEN THIS POTENTIAL...WE TOYED WITH UPGRADING THESE COUNTIES TO A BLIZZARD WARNING THIS AFTERNOON...BUT ELECTED TO HOLD OFF ON THIS FOR NOW GIVEN THE SLIGHT SOUTHWARD SHIFT SEEN IN THE 12Z GUIDANCE...WHICH IF IT WERE TO CONTINUE WOULD RESULT IN LOWER WIND SPEEDS AND A SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER THREAT FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. THIS STATED...SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS POTENTIAL...AS AN UPGRADE MAY STILL EVENTUALLY BECOME NECESSARY DEPENDENT UPON FURTHER POSSIBLE SHIFTS IN THE STORM TRACK...HOWEVER SLIGHT THESE MAY BE."<br /><br />So far it doesn't appear as though the 18z NAM is south of the 12z run at all, maybe a hair north actually and slightly stronger. I'd place the probability of blizzard warnings at around 50 percent right now.Mantis Tobogganhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11104491137465766315noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-90793762817596099662014-03-11T16:02:37.957-04:002014-03-11T16:02:37.957-04:00What about Blizzard warnings???What about Blizzard warnings???Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-10063013775152913652014-03-11T16:00:07.013-04:002014-03-11T16:00:07.013-04:00What about the timing. What are the schools going...What about the timing. What are the schools going to do?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com