tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post8450718811937330702..comments2024-02-13T03:39:18.616-05:00Comments on News 8 Weather Blog: If You Want Snow...Think Euro!News 8 Weatherhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10107233504909304176noreply@blogger.comBlogger37125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-80626630564448026322014-12-28T04:49:40.836-05:002014-12-28T04:49:40.836-05:00Well. I hope things change with the models this we...Well. I hope things change with the models this week for next weekend or we are looking at a wet storm again as it will pass west of us as of now.Snowdognoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-9030418543988911312014-12-26T14:59:49.102-05:002014-12-26T14:59:49.102-05:00Amen to that. Overcast and dry should not be a thi...Amen to that. Overcast and dry should not be a thing.Mantis Tobogganhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11104491137465766315noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-23318537396076352752014-12-26T14:11:33.742-05:002014-12-26T14:11:33.742-05:00It is nice to see the sun and have some sunshine; ...It is nice to see the sun and have some sunshine; especially as the past several days have been gray and cloudy. Good to just stand in the sun and enjoy!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-89930109825731129272014-12-26T12:32:09.782-05:002014-12-26T12:32:09.782-05:00Well that's just fine and dandy, but the graph...Well that's just fine and dandy, but the graphics I posted earlier are for Day 8 and beyond. And anyway the 12z GFS and GGEM still show a storm for that time period:<br /><br />http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014122612/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_33.png<br />http://img.meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_12/P6_GZ_D5_PN_204_0000.gif<br /><br />You can post all you want Mr. Anon E. Moose, but it will always be a losing effort.Mantis Tobogganhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11104491137465766315noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-41879925710459822342014-12-26T11:55:03.578-05:002014-12-26T11:55:03.578-05:00Well just look at the 12z GFS, Canadian and last ...Well just look at the 12z GFS, Canadian and last Euro and there is nothing for the next week here in Rochester. You can post all you want CCCC but I just looked at the latest runs and nada.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-85085623827489678442014-12-26T09:39:29.468-05:002014-12-26T09:39:29.468-05:00http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/
C...http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/<br /><br />Clicking the tabs will display dropdown menus with all of the available models.Mantis Tobogganhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11104491137465766315noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-49438661323240173722014-12-26T09:29:40.121-05:002014-12-26T09:29:40.121-05:00CCC. where do you go to get the models you show ab...CCC. where do you go to get the models you show above? ThanksAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-80050692880895921192014-12-26T09:24:58.407-05:002014-12-26T09:24:58.407-05:00uhhh...
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/m...uhhh...<br /><br />http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014122606/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_eus_33.png<br />http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014122606/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_eus_35.png<br />http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2014122600/gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_eus_38.png<br /><br />...get your eyes checked. I could've posted the Euro too but it's doing its usual "amped and NW" thing that it always does. Will it verify? Who knows, that's not the point. And yes I am fully aware that the parallel GFS eventually becomes a rainer, the point is that you're wrong and go away.<br /><br />"Again think we are going to struggle to reach 75 inches."<br /><br />And take your talking ass with you.Mantis Tobogganhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11104491137465766315noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-84421937528090651292014-12-26T09:04:16.123-05:002014-12-26T09:04:16.123-05:00Still see nothing on models in regards to potentia...Still see nothing on models in regards to potential snow storms. Again think we are going to struggle to reach 75 inches.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-81771156572796878922014-12-25T21:18:07.656-05:002014-12-25T21:18:07.656-05:00HM is good people. Lots of good people on that for...HM is good people. Lots of good people on that forum, especially in the New England and Mid Atlantic subforums. They really know how to tame the vast, pulsating ocean of hyperactive weenies don't they...Mantis Tobogganhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11104491137465766315noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-85387779946265952822014-12-25T21:12:46.502-05:002014-12-25T21:12:46.502-05:00Additionally some heavy skepticism by a red tag on...Additionally some heavy skepticism by a red tag on AmericanWx:<br /><br />"So the heights go from above to below to Above In AK. Yeah ok. Classic weeklies. Meanwhile the week 1 and 2 forecasts have trended over 200 meters higher in AK compared to Monday's forecast. Good luck dry jumping those forecasts."<br /><br />Basically the sentiment expressed here is that the sort of turnaround necessary to go from a frigid signal in the high-latitude Pacific region, to an extremely mild one in a span of just one week would have to be astronomical. I did get a glimpse of the temp anomalies for the week in question though...yikes is all I can say. The north Pacific returns to a cold look the following week though, as if that comforting fact holds any more merit than the pronounced letdown prior to it.Mantis Tobogganhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11104491137465766315noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-46442982387920375532014-12-25T21:10:39.462-05:002014-12-25T21:10:39.462-05:00I should have just sat on my hands a little longer... I should have just sat on my hands a little longer before saying anything. As usual, people who know what they are talking about, come along and calm the weather weenies. It ended up as a positive because I didn't realize HM was on twitter and now I can follow him. Always liked that guy.Caledonianoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-78953021884824078642014-12-25T20:40:18.396-05:002014-12-25T20:40:18.396-05:001) The person who made that tweet lives in south J...1) The person who made that tweet lives in south Jersey. Their torch isn't necessarily ours.<br /><br />2) All long range models are abysmal beyond Week 2.Mantis Tobogganhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11104491137465766315noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-39482613013444930592014-12-25T20:34:07.233-05:002014-12-25T20:34:07.233-05:00talking ass that controls your keyboard...lol
Jus... talking ass that controls your keyboard...lol<br /><br />Just read that the Euro Weeklies are a torch Jan 12th - 25th. Don't know if that means a thing to anyone. No idea of the skill of those that far out. Caledonianoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-45022620614397836252014-12-25T20:11:02.977-05:002014-12-25T20:11:02.977-05:00"I recall peopel [sic] saying the second half..."I recall peopel [sic] saying the second half of December would be snowy and cold and that did not happen."<br /><br />They said "cold." They never said "snowy," at least not with any confidence. And yes, it was a little delayed, which happens pretty frequently (but not always). Those delays are no longer happening.<br /><br />"I love how it is now the second half of January."<br /><br />No, it's not the second half of January. I'm just pinpointing that time frame as a period of potential interest. Otherwise we're definitely going to get cold for awhile long before that time, and when cold settles in around here the snow eventually follows.<br /><br />"When that does not work out it will be the second half of February."<br /><br />List out every ensemble, SST configuration and teleconnection progression which could argue in favor of that prediction. Or better yet, just post a picture of the talking ass that controls your keyboard.Mantis Tobogganhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11104491137465766315noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-9031896119123076702014-12-25T19:45:04.920-05:002014-12-25T19:45:04.920-05:00I quote "we go snowless during an arctic outb... I quote "we go snowless during an arctic outbreak precisely never." Meaning c4 doesn't expect a complete shut out the first half of January in the snow department. He just stated that it MAY continue into the second half and be even more favorable as the set up evolves. <br /><br />And of course we could have a frozen tundra without snow, too. Because weather forecasting is a probability statement. I don't know why people can't grasp that.. I mean your forecast says 60% chance of precipitation for a reason. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-43918711177169566522014-12-25T18:28:32.665-05:002014-12-25T18:28:32.665-05:00Sorry but we have heard this before. I recall peop...Sorry but we have heard this before. I recall peopel saying the second half of December would be snowy and cold and that did not happen. I love how it is now the second half of January. When that does not work out it will be the second half of February.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-89148939895378819532014-12-25T13:15:12.125-05:002014-12-25T13:15:12.125-05:00The models are starting to get a vague clue regard...The models are starting to get a vague clue regarding next week's storm potential, but it's a new development. The mean of current solutions would leave us high and dry with the snow staying south of here, but we all know how that situation can end up at this time range. Still way too early to give up on it.<br /><br />A very knowledgeable long range forecaster on both AmericanWx and the AccuWx forum, who goes by the user name blizzardOf96, thinks the second half of January could produce for the Ohio Valley/Great Lakes region as a -PNA/-AO/-NAO regime sets up. Recall that last season's predominantly negative PNA worked wonders for us in the snowstorm department, as it kept the storm track from moving too far offshore. "It is not looking good for us snow lovers" huh? What I'm seeing points to quite the opposite situation. In the meantime we're still on course for the arctic hammer to drop right before the new year, and in my experience we go snowless during an arctic outbreak precisely never. If we don't feel impacts from the southern stream critter then we'll have to keep an eye out for much more subtle northern stream disturbances, especially with the lake temps still running above average.Mantis Tobogganhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11104491137465766315noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-22412992816774272812014-12-25T13:00:42.714-05:002014-12-25T13:00:42.714-05:00"I am going to stay positive that things will..."I am going to stay positive that things will change, here is a hopelessly pessimistic outlook regarding the next two and a half months." -SnowdogMantis Tobogganhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11104491137465766315noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-38174944266123112772014-12-25T12:40:54.767-05:002014-12-25T12:40:54.767-05:00All quiet storm wise for the next 7-10 days. So as...All quiet storm wise for the next 7-10 days. So as a famous QB said just relax people.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-90614082824830663442014-12-25T12:32:33.987-05:002014-12-25T12:32:33.987-05:00because its worth a good laugh....thats whybecause its worth a good laugh....thats whyAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-51139219383083213052014-12-25T12:24:11.978-05:002014-12-25T12:24:11.978-05:00Then why do you even read this blog if it is so ba...Then why do you even read this blog if it is so bad??? Irondequoithttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06915354632843677968noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-58096407417612239802014-12-25T11:42:40.990-05:002014-12-25T11:42:40.990-05:00this is what im talking about, will you please exp...this is what im talking about, will you please explain to me what a few inches would be???? i think a few would more than cover the grass, horrible forecasting stacey and wroc. no other station is forecasting anything but flurries and here you are with a few inches.... gimme a breakAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-30350452719906698722014-12-25T08:34:52.066-05:002014-12-25T08:34:52.066-05:00Did you read the very first line of the post above...Did you read the very first line of the post above you?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-49697575304736005212014-12-25T06:37:47.948-05:002014-12-25T06:37:47.948-05:00No snow next week either. It will be cold but main...No snow next week either. It will be cold but mainly dry next week. The arctic high will keep any systems suppressed to the South. I am going to stay positive that things will change but it is not looking good for us snow lovers. I think Scott will be way off on his 110-130" this year. I agree with the bloggers that say 60-80 at most.Snowdognoreply@blogger.com