tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post921940858533626727..comments2024-02-13T03:39:18.616-05:00Comments on News 8 Weather Blog: AREA GETS READY FOR THE NEXT ONENews 8 Weatherhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10107233504909304176noreply@blogger.comBlogger97125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-42930093021267451692014-03-10T16:52:59.186-04:002014-03-10T16:52:59.186-04:00What wind speeds are we expecting? 25mph to 30mph...What wind speeds are we expecting? 25mph to 30mph??Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-34888623701525385882014-03-10T15:45:15.441-04:002014-03-10T15:45:15.441-04:00Looks like WPC bit on the GFS track:
http://www.h...Looks like WPC bit on the GFS track:<br /><br />http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day2_psnow_gt_04.gif<br />http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day2_psnow_gt_08.gif<br />http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day2_psnow_gt_12.gif<br /><br />QPF depiction averages 1 inch regionwide:<br /><br />http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/d13_fill.gif<br /><br />That would easily be a foot or more given what will likely be ratios of 12:1 and higher. A lot of our snow will be cold advection driven, which tends to produce decent ratios.Mantis Tobogganhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11104491137465766315noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-49552737095638162222014-03-10T15:30:04.517-04:002014-03-10T15:30:04.517-04:00If by "major changes" you mean "sig...If by "major changes" you mean "significant storm to moderate event" then no, there should be no more major changes.Mantis Tobogganhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11104491137465766315noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-12259980522999698502014-03-10T15:25:25.076-04:002014-03-10T15:25:25.076-04:00Buff NWS forecast discussion has initial estimates...Buff NWS forecast discussion has initial estimates of 7-12".Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-74616964515211173242014-03-10T15:21:01.655-04:002014-03-10T15:21:01.655-04:00One more question the 12z runs today particularly ...One more question the 12z runs today particularly the GFS and EURO were completely sampled yes? If yes then would it not be safe that there should be major changes since we are less than 40 hours out?Bnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-55521759004444360362014-03-10T15:15:47.257-04:002014-03-10T15:15:47.257-04:00The model runs will matter as long as we can't...The model runs will matter as long as we can't see the storm on radar, so probably until the 12z cycle tomorrow. And I saw the storm after this one on the Euro. I don't even want to think about it at this point.Mantis Tobogganhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11104491137465766315noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-1016676742790301272014-03-10T15:11:23.647-04:002014-03-10T15:11:23.647-04:00Ok thanks CCCC so we should take stock in the mode...Ok thanks CCCC so we should take stock in the model runs tonight and tomorrow? Also not to get off this storm but as you hinted did you see the 12z EURO for next Monday/Tuesday? Bnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-53045562699902726292014-03-10T15:08:28.859-04:002014-03-10T15:08:28.859-04:00Ah man sorry Real Snowdog :\
I feel as though we&...Ah man sorry Real Snowdog :\<br /><br />I feel as though we'll see local numbers by the afternoon broadcasts, and Warnings by early tomorrow. Nowcasting begins when the thing appears on radar.Mantis Tobogganhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11104491137465766315noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-31584464162122231162014-03-10T15:04:32.326-04:002014-03-10T15:04:32.326-04:00The Snowdog above was not me. It was the impersona...The Snowdog above was not me. It was the impersonator.Snowdognoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-13305176330234109582014-03-10T15:03:29.029-04:002014-03-10T15:03:29.029-04:00Not sure that was the real Snowdog which is annoyi...Not sure that was the real Snowdog which is annoying. I agree CCCC and my feeling is 12-16 inches for this storm. CCCC when do you feel the local mets will be putting numbers out and when will NWS put us to warning criteria. Also when do we get to now casting where models are not helpful much?Bnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-43091820286491599012014-03-10T15:01:59.570-04:002014-03-10T15:01:59.570-04:00CCCC is right, KW has been pretty accurate this y...CCCC is right, KW has been pretty accurate this year. I think they all do a great job. Westsidernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-44162589809512501512014-03-10T14:57:35.130-04:002014-03-10T14:57:35.130-04:00This is where means from various models need to be...This is where means from various models need to be looked at, not just one model run... Lets just wait for Scott to give his thoughts, he has access to past storm tracks/case studies as well as experience, oh and a degree in meteorology. Still interested to hear everyone's thoughts on snow totals. To be conservative, I am leaning towards Charles and his prediction of 10-14".Weatherguynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-62656743029786506332014-03-10T14:55:13.999-04:002014-03-10T14:55:13.999-04:00Here is where we stand so far:
-Euro has 10-14 in...Here is where we stand so far:<br /><br />-Euro has 10-14 inches<br />-GGEM has 8-10 inches<br />-GFS has 16-22 inches<br />-NAM has 18-24 inches<br /><br />So discounting the NAM and the GGEM for being the highest and lowest on numbers respectively, and adding a dose of realism to the GFS, we appear IMO to be looking at a general 10-18 inches, highest in the Finger Lakes and lowest well to the NW. Some people on AmericanWx, one of whom carries the "Meteorologist" tag, believe the Euro is being too stingy on precip in the cold sector, and Bernie Rayno believes we'll see an outcome closer to the GFS. I didn't see any important differences in the past 3 Euro runs, it has moved maybe a total of 10 miles over that span and varied by a millibar or two regarding intensity. I've also seen it underdo cold sector precip with numerous storms of this nature, so there's a case to be made for the higher end of the snowfall range. Or we can assume that the Euro has it bang on given its consistency and make a case for the lower end. Either way, the amount of wind with this system will result in major impacts regardless of snowfall amounts. We will see enough accumulation to make travel difficult when coupled with the wind.<br /><br />And Snowdog, you really need to get your eyes checked. Weather Underground gives Rochester 10-16 inches in their forecast. Not that it matters, their forecasts are awful. 3-5 is way too low, by far and away lower than any forecast or model.Mantis Tobogganhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11104491137465766315noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-28186053208442803622014-03-10T14:49:07.986-04:002014-03-10T14:49:07.986-04:00All the hype for nothing. NBD just like I predicte...All the hype for nothing. NBD just like I predicted, unfortunately. Weather Underground lists 3-5 inches. You all bought into the KW hype as per say..Snowdognoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-91344957622687141972014-03-10T14:46:43.237-04:002014-03-10T14:46:43.237-04:00Yes the EURO seems to have backed off and 10 inche...Yes the EURO seems to have backed off and 10 inches looks more realistic with the storm based on that run. Kind of thought the other models just were too strong.Bnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-86295884552389544312014-03-10T14:40:54.080-04:002014-03-10T14:40:54.080-04:00This storm is less than 40 hours away and yet our ...This storm is less than 40 hours away and yet our local mets still seem to be very uncertain? Have not seen any numbers posted by them and the NWS does not even have us in warning yet? Very confusing since I thought we had sampled models today and the average of all 3 of those models is well over a foot? Again seems like with all this modern weather technology predicting weather is more difficult.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-47420275787675230492014-03-10T14:29:36.879-04:002014-03-10T14:29:36.879-04:0012z EURO more south and not as strong so 10-12 may...12z EURO more south and not as strong so 10-12 may be more accurate for areas closer to lake areas south will get more.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-80703428227067345012014-03-10T14:23:14.856-04:002014-03-10T14:23:14.856-04:00Never!Never!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-63852061280291313112014-03-10T14:22:06.642-04:002014-03-10T14:22:06.642-04:00Maybe we should just add them together!Maybe we should just add them together!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-46353453023870544652014-03-10T14:17:10.729-04:002014-03-10T14:17:10.729-04:00Too many snow total numbers being thrown out. Qua...Too many snow total numbers being thrown out. Quad-CCCC what is your take on what the snow fall will be for Wednesday. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-63568449180959959862014-03-10T13:54:31.791-04:002014-03-10T13:54:31.791-04:00Wow! Sounds good if you like snow. Hopefully the t...Wow! Sounds good if you like snow. Hopefully the timing is right to close the schools.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-75840144680030364282014-03-10T13:53:03.355-04:002014-03-10T13:53:03.355-04:00Hey even snow lovers find the novelty of a good sn...Hey even snow lovers find the novelty of a good snow storm and the enjoyment of playing in the snow will quickly wear off as the month of March progresses. By late March I'm down right intolerant of snow and want to get through spring and into summer like weather as fast as possible. The only season I truly loathe here is early/mid spring--- sometimes we take far too long to transition from bad to good weather and the soggy grass & mud is downright miserable making it tough to do much outside.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-46379790201678251782014-03-10T13:36:14.275-04:002014-03-10T13:36:14.275-04:00Hi All,
The 12z data from both the NAM & GFS ...Hi All,<br /><br />The 12z data from both the NAM & GFS certainly looks more impressive with snowfall amounts, & as the storm deepens & pulls off the east-northeast of us lake enhancement/effect will slowly, but surely take over as the air grows colder & the winds howl. I would expect blowing & drifting snows to become an issue to end Wednesday right into Thursday. Temperatures will likely plunge into the teens Wednesday night, maybe even upper single digits by early Thursday with some lake snows continuing through at least Thursday morning. Wind chills will likely drop below zero Wednesday night into Thursday too. Snow will likely break out late Tuesday night, with the worst of the storm snow will likely come later Wednesday morning through early Wednesday night the way it looks now, which means the ride home will probably be rough to say the least Wednesday! May not be that good early Thursday either with some lake snow & blowing & drifting snow reducing visibility greatly at times. Scott will be in & have some numbers tonight. I think this is going to be a VERY impressive one! Stay tuned for updates tonight & tomorrow...<br /><br />Have a good one bloggers!<br /><br />Best,<br />John News 8 Weatherhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10107233504909304176noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-17564357352526072062014-03-10T13:30:37.533-04:002014-03-10T13:30:37.533-04:00I hear ya - but to be honest, even I am getting a ...I hear ya - but to be honest, even I am getting a little tired of it. It's been a good, old-fashioned winter. But enough already.Weather or Notnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5793508672957135735.post-43616239783467763442014-03-10T13:08:39.707-04:002014-03-10T13:08:39.707-04:00You know this type of winter will end with a big s...You know this type of winter will end with a big storm.. because people ( outside this blog ) are sick of it. I know it, you know it, we all know it.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com