News 8 Weather Blog

Another Round of Snow Tonight

2012-01-30T13:16:00.002-05:00

Written by John DiPasquale:

After a nice shot of winter Sunday night & early this morning, we will pick up another 1 to 4 or 2 to 5" region wide snowfall due to a strong warm front tonight. Snow should break out sometime between 6 & 9 this evening & will likely be moderate to heavy for a little while later this evening & during the early overnight before it tapers to flurries & drizzle & maybe even a bit of freezing drizzle late tonight & very early Tuesday. Temperatures will warm above freezing for most by sunrise Tuesday, as we will be off & running for the low to mid 40s later Tuesday afternoon for highs! We will remain mild into Wednesday, 40s, before falling back into the upper 30s to around 40 Wednesday afternoon in the wake of a morning/midday cold front.

It looks more seasonable, but quiet through Saturday, but Sunday/Monday may get interesting with a storm moving into the Northeast. The big question with the Sunday system will be the track. Of course, this will dictate what, & how much precipitation we see. Either way, though, big overall upper level pattern changes on the way later next week & through much of the rest of February the way it looks now! Snow lovers could be getting what you have been waiting for, let's just put it that way:-) Stay tuned. Big blocking ridge in the North Atlantic developing...

Have a great night & be careful if you have to travel tonight, roads will become snow covered & slick right into the start of Tuesday.

Windy, Showers Change to a bit of Snow Today

2012-01-27T09:04:00.002-05:00

Written by John DiPasquale:

After a mild, damp start to this Friday, it is now turning colder & the winds are whipping in the wake of the mainly rain producing storm moving into New England currently. A batch of light to moderate snow will come through this afternoon & early tonight before ending. There will probably be a slushy coating to an inch or so of accumulation by day's end, especially over the high terrain. Temperatures will dip into the low to mid 30s this afternoon for all.

Tonight the weather will quiet down, before the first of two cold front's makes it's way through with some snow showers that may begin as a mix during the midday hours Saturday. A slushy coating to an inch or two is possible tomorrow afternoon through early Saturday night. No biggie, but it could get a little slick late Saturday & early Saturday night. A more significant snowfall will attempt to develop off Lake Erie near or in the Greater Rochester area late Sunday morning into Sunday night ahead & with a strong punch of colder air. A 1 to 4 or 2 to 5" snowfall could very well occur across much of WNY, including the Greater Rochestr area Sunday afternoon through Sunday night. Best chance for maybe even a bit more than that would be north & east, & south & west of Rochester during this period. Temperatures will go from around 40 midday Saturday back into the low & mid 30s Sunday & 20s Monday. Any lake snows lingering mainly north & east of Rochester Monday morning should end come the afternoon as weak temporary ridge quickly builds in from the west. Stay tuned tonight & through the weekend for Stacey Pensgen's updates regarding the snow & colder temperatures.

Have a great weekend everyone!

A Rainy Night on the Way

2012-01-26T12:28:00.002-05:00

Written by John DiPasquale:

Precipitation is moving in this afternoon & it's beginning as snow & a mix, which will pretty quickly flip to rain by day's end into the evening as milder builds in from the south ahead of the culprit. The culprit for the mainly rain storm will be a storm system moving in from south later tonight into Friday morning. In the wake of this storm late tomorrow morning into the afternoon there should be a transition to a little wet snow &/or mix before tapering off late Friday. A slushy inch or two will probably fall in the hills south of Rochester, while little, if any, accumulation is expected for most of us as temperatures will be in the mid 30s during the afternoon tomorrow.

A bit more snow will blow in with the first of two cold fronts Saturday afternoon, followed by some flurries & a few squalls later Sunday into Monday with some, mainly minor, accumulations possible. Temperatures will be in the 30s to near 40 Saturday, & low to mid 30s Sunday. Colder 20s should arrive Monday, before we moderate back into the 30s Tuesday. We just can't keep the cold air in here more than a day or two, but signs that might change somewhat come February, as North Atlantic ridge is going to attempt to develop. I'll really believe it if the data is still suggesting this early to mid next week. Stay tuned.

Have a great night all!

More Typical January Day Today

2012-01-24T11:32:00.002-05:00

Written by John DiPasquale:

A little snow in the air this afternoon, especially Rochester SW bound. Little, if any, accumulation will occur, but there may be another coating to an inch or two in ski country this afternoon. Tonight a trough will kick through with some snow showers & flurries. A coating to an inch may occur in spots, with an inch or two possible in Wyoming, & parts of Genesee & Livingston counties tonight. Either way, it will be no big deal.

Wednesday will be quiet with some sun returning, but more clouds should roll in during the afternoon. Highs will be in the mid 30s.

Late Thursday through the start of Friday we will be watching a storm system to the south to see what it's ultimate track will be. At this juncture, it looks like precipitation will begin as rain before possibly ending as a bit of wet snow Friday morning. Either way, though, it does not appear that we will see much snow out of this storm system.

On Saturday, there will be another storm to watch moving up the coast, but at this time model data has it well to the east & not a factor in our weather. However, Saturday night into Sunday a strong cold front will push through with a little snow, & then the lake machine should turn on & may lay down some accumulations for the region on a northwest/west-northwest flow. We'll see. Temperatures will dip out of the 30s for highs Saturday, & into the 20s Sunday & Monday. Stay tuned.

Have a good one everyone!

A Little More Snow Overnight

2012-01-20T11:33:00.002-05:00

Written by: Stacey Pensgen

Yes, we are still expecting a little snow overnight tonight, but chances are it'll be gone in a few days.

A quick moving system passing by to our south tonight will drop an area-wide snow on WNY, blanketing the area in a fresh layer of the white stuff.

The most moisture will fall through the Finger Lakes and Southern Tier, where about 2-4", maybe even 3-6" is likey by Saturday morning. Amounts taper off a little as you head north towards Lake Ontario, where amounts should be in the 1-2" range. However, we are in for a pretty decent warm-up on Monday, with temps back into the mid 40s with rain in the forecast. Our roller-coaster winter continues into the last full week of January.

PLOWABLE SNOW POTENTIAL ON SATURDAY

2012-01-18T22:27:00.003-05:00

Written By: Scott Hetsko

Long range data has been consistent in tracking a storm just South of N.Y. Friday night and Saturday. It appears that there will be a decent band of snow along the isentropic ascent North of the low pressure center. If the track remains favorable, I would expect a general 3-6" snowfall from late Friday night through the mid day hours on Saturday.

Big Winds & Changes Occur Tonight

2012-01-17T10:13:00.003-05:00

Written by John DiPasquale:

Steady rains will end this afternoon, & it will be mild with temperatures peaking between the mid 40s to low 50s.

Later this evening, as a strengthening storm zips by to our north & brings a strong cold front through during the mid to late evening. Temperatures will plummet out of the 40s & low 50s & back to around 20 by dawn tomorrow with winds becoming sustained between 25 & 45 mph, & some gusts could exceed 55 or even 60 mph!! If this in fact occurs, some damage & scattered power outages are likely. Bring in any loose items around the house if you can, otherwise you just might lose them, especially if they are exposed to a west/northwest facing field. Winds will slowly settle later Wednesday morning & afternoon. Snow should not be much of an issue late tonight into Wednesday, but there will likely be some flurries & a few squalls around late tonight through early Wednesday afternoon, with a coating to an inch or two possible. A bit more than that will likely fall in Wyoming County & also across portions of CNY, but overall snow will not be a big deal behind this storm. Another important thing to mention besides the wind later tonight into Wednesday is the MUCH colder air, which will cause the standing water from today's rain & snow melt to refreeze. So untreated surfaces will turn into skating rinks, be mindful of that when heading out late tonight & tomorrow.

The next chance of an area wide snow will be later Thursday into Thursday night when a clipper dives through. At this time, it appears there could be an inch or two with that system, with a little lake snow to follow Thursday night & early Friday. Again, though, the snow should not be that significant. However, some new information is suggesting the potential of a more significant snowfall later Friday night into Saturday across WNY. A developing storm looks like it's going to pass by to the south, but possibly be close enough to produce some decent isentropic lift snow. We may pick up at least 3 or 4 inches with that system to kick off the weekend. Temperatures will also moderate over the weekend out of the teens & low 20s Friday back into the upper 20s & mid 30s Saturday & Sunday, respectively. Stay tuned.

Have a great day everyone!

A Brief Thaw

2012-01-16T09:02:00.002-05:00

Written by John DiPasquale:

Well after a mid winter's weekend here in WNY, today will definitely be much milder, & tomorrow will feel like spring again, before the winter chill returns with a little more snow late tomorrow night into Wednesday, & again later Thursday into Thursday night. At this time, I don't anticipate any real significant snows through the week, but again it will turn quite cold with highs in the upper teens to mid 20s Wednesday through Friday, before we warm up some over the weekend.

Have a great a day everyone!

4 HOURS

2012-01-13T15:07:00.004-05:00

Written By: Scott Hetsko

Now that I'm 41 years old, some nights I get up around 3am. I looked outside my window this morning around 3am and noticed nothing going on. When I woke again at 7am, I had about 3" of snow on the ground and the temperature dropped by almost 20 degrees!

Weather service spotters have been reporting 2-5" of snow since this morning. Some higher elevations have had 6-7" snow amounts as reported on my FACEBOOK page.

Yes, It Is Friday the 13th

2012-01-13T10:21:00.002-05:00

Written by: Stacey Pensgen

Well, winter arrived - on Friday, January 13th. We've been in the "sweet spot" of the storm all morning, seeing a steady, moderate to heavy snow since about 4:30AM. We'll stay in the steady snow through mid-afternoon, but we won't see huge numbers.

The flakes are fine, creating that heavy, sugary snow. Gusty winds blowing that around, plus the combination of the wet ground from the overnight and plummeting temps, plus an icy glaze from about 10 minutes of ice pellets under the snow are really the big players in this system.

We're still waiting on that monster storm, but this one certainly wreaked havoc on our morning commute, and finally brought us all some decent snow.

WINTRY WEATHER ON FRIDAY, NUISANCE SNOW

2012-01-12T15:54:00.003-05:00

Written By: Scott Hetsko

Two weak low pressure systems will combine to become a very strong storm over New England by Friday evening. Unfortunately for snow lovers the storm track is right over us. The system will wrap in some snow on Friday but I suspect 1-3" with up to 5" in a few spots off the lake by Friday night will be all the area will get from this one. The storm becomes a monster 978 mb low over Maine but by then it's influence will no longer be significant over Western New York.

RAIN LATER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY

2012-01-11T14:47:00.003-05:00

Written By: Scott Hetsko

After temperatures near 50 degrees this afternoon, it will cloud up with rain arriving before midnight. This will be a rain maker and I honestly don't see where anyone thinks snow will be an issue Thursday. Low pressure will track West along with a SE wind. We never get snow with that type of surface wind. 850mb temperatures won't get below freezing until after5Z Friday.

I saw someone post a forecast discussion from the NWS. I honestly don't know why they put out such nonsense when analyzing just one or two model runs. It's true that the low pressure will strengthen thanks to support from a 500mb low from the Great Lakes. The problem lies in WHERE the low is tracking. We're on the SE quadrant and I can count maybe one time in a HUNDRED that we would get significant snow in that region. It's like the chances of a car crashing into your house. Could it happen? Sure. But the chances are too remote to mention.

Friday will be windy and colder with occasional snow and snow showers. Right now I would categorize snow amounts as a nuisance for the majority of the area. Lake effect will become the primary snow maker Friday evening and early Saturday.

SHOVEL? WHO NEEDS IT?

2012-01-09T15:47:00.002-05:00

Written By: Scott Hetsko

We are now about 30" below that normal amount of snow we would see in an average winter to this date. There are some signs of a change however as both the AO and NAO have been trending toward neutral and forecasts have them both in the negative range in the next 7 days. The NAO has been positive since October and so has our average temperature.

Since November first, we have been 5 degrees above normal in Rochester! That's consistent with a positive NAO and La Nina working together. Colder air will return beginning Thursday night and continue right through the weekend. Long range data at this point suggests colder to much colder than average temperatures from January 15th-21st. We'll see!

Mild through Thursday, then...

2012-01-09T09:03:00.003-05:00

Written by John DiPasquale:

Nice today, & really other than a few snow showers & flurries it will be uneventful & pleasant through Wednesday. Later Wednesday night into Thursday some showers appear to be in the works, but after Thursday much colder air should be yanked in here by Wednesday night & Thursday's rain maker. This should spell 20s for highs & at least a bit of general snow & some lake snows. Stay tuned for more as the week progresses everyone.

Have a nice day WNY!

Same Stuff, Different Day

2012-01-07T18:10:00.002-05:00

Written by: Stacey Pensgen

Sorry, snow lovers. The first half of January looks like it'll be similar to our December - above average for temperatures, and below average for snow. A LOT below average.

Our next storm arrives during the day on Wedneday, and looks like it'll be another rain event for us, at least when the bulk of the moisture will be falling. We will likely see snow showers on Thursday as colder air makes it in, but just like all the rest of our storms, there shouldn't be a whole lot of moisture left to dump snow on us.

After that, we do cool down quite a bit, but as we (and many of you) have pointed out, it won't be a pattern changer. By that time, we'll be heading into our 3rd full week of January. Scott pointed out that the 2006/2007 season started out similar to this year, and we wound up with 107". However, the 1941/1942 winter season started similar for snowfall, and we ended up with 66" of snow.

Unlike many of you, I'm not a snow lover, but man - this weather is BORING! I'm hoping for some snow just to be able to talk about something! We've still got quite a bit of winter left, but I have to admit, I'm getting a little frustrated as the days pass by with no winter weather.

A Little Snow Around Today, but Not Much

2012-01-05T09:03:00.002-05:00

Written by John DiPasquale:

A much milder start to this Thursday it was compared to yesterday's bitter beginning!

Other than a little lake snow & a few snow showers from a weak cold front, today will be pretty uneventful. There may be a dusting to an inch in spots this afternoon, especially north & east of Rochester, but that's about it.

Late tonight into Friday morning a warm front will be dragged through the area with a gusty west-southwest moderating wind. There may be a snow/mixed shower late tonight into the start of tomorrow with the warm front's passage, & thereafter the temperatures will jump up into the mid to perhaps upper 40s Friday afternoon with breaks of sun developing!

The weekend will feature a cool down back to more seasonable levels by Sunday after we start in the 40s Saturday with a couple of rain & snow showers possible on Saturday. A few flurries may be flying around Sunday, but the weather should remain quiet to end the weekend & start next week.

Next Tuesday & Wednesday will probably warm back into the 40s with maybe even some more sun, but then come Thursday a storm should move up into the Northeast with some rain ending as snow & possibly transitioning to lake snows late next week. The cold shot late next week may stick around for awhile too, as the NAO may turn neutral to somewhat negative. We'll see...

Have a great night everyone!

Moderating Temperatures Today; Mild by Weeks End

2012-01-04T09:03:00.002-05:00

Written by John DiPasquale:

COOOLLLDDDDDD start today!!! However, brisk southwest winds will help us warm up to more tolerable readings this afternoon, but wind chills will remain in the upper single digits to mid teens throughout the rest of today! Bundle up! This morning we got down to 3 here in Rochester, but other more rural spots certainly were down around or just below zero! Brrr!! Tonight will not be nearly that cold as temperatures will hold steady if not rise a bit overnight into the 25 to 30 degree range. There will likely be a few snow showers in the air tonight too, as a cold front/trough moves in.

The latest data is suggesting that there could be a bit of lake snow moving in late morning into the afternoon, which I buy considering it will be just cold enough & there will be some low level moisture, plus the trough/cold front will essentially stall out nearby, which should act as a bit of a forcing mechanism. I don't expect much from this lake snow band tomorrow, but there could be anywhere from a coating to as much as 2 or 3" by day's end across the Greater Rochester area to around the Thruway corridor/Northern Finger Lakes. Temperatures on our Thursday will range from 30 to 35.

Any lake snows will quickly dissipate & swing north tomorrow evening in advance of a warm front that MAY trigger a little snow &/or icy mix late tomorrow night into early Friday, before we warm into the 40s later Friday with a few rain showers possible to end the day.

The weekend right now looks quite benign & mild to start. The next chance to see something possibly interesting evolve may not be until next Thursday/Friday time frame. We'll see.

Have a great night everyone!

LAKE SNOW GETS GOING LATER EVENING

2012-01-02T16:10:00.001-05:00

Written By: Scott Hetsko

No real change in our expectation of lake effect snow tonight and Tuesday morning. 850 temps will fall below -20 overnight which should really get the lake excited. 14" will be the exception, not the rule!

LOCALLY HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW, BITTER COLD AIR TUESDAY

2012-01-01T16:40:00.002-05:00

Written By: Scott Hetsko

Serious changes to our weather coming over the next 24-48 hours. Windy and colder on Monday with snow showers in Rochester but lake snow for Genesee, Wyoming and West Livingston Counties. After 9 p.m. Monday night, I expect bitter cold air and Northwest wind to combine and bring significant snow North of the Thurway into Tuesday.

It's hard to say who will get the most but over 6" for many and over foot for some of the heaviest hit areas. Bitter cold air will cause fluffy snow to blow around easily which could create whiteout conditions at times Tuesday morning. Frequent updates to follow.

No More Snow for Most until Next Year

2011-12-30T11:39:00.003-05:00

Written by John DiPasquale:

Quiet & milder than average through much of New Year's, before big changes BLOW in on gusty cold west to northwest to northerly or north-northwest winds late Sunday through Tuesday night. This will yield some significant lake snows for many early next week, likely including the Greater Rochester area. Temperatures will drop into the 20s Monday, and teens Tuesday, with wind chills likely dipping to around or below zero by Tuesday along with significant blowing & drifting snows. Now of course areas where the snows are most persistent will receive the most, but the way things are looking now it looks like most will receive at least a few inches or more. Stay tuned for updates on this return to winter through the weekend!

Very Cold Start; More Seasonable End to Today

2011-12-29T09:01:00.002-05:00

Written by John DiPasquale:

After a very cold start early this morning with wind chills in the single digits & temperatures in the teens, the thermometer will ultimately rise into the low 30s come early this evening. Also arriving later this afternoon & especially this evening will be some snow showers that could lay down a coating to an inch or two for most. This will not be a big deal, but may cause roads to get a little slick this evening. Temperatures will rise above freezing late tonight as the weakening clippers moves across the area.

On the clipper's heels will be another slightly strong storm that will produce primarily rain & milder temperatures come tomorrow afternoon into early Friday night. Late Friday night any leftover showers will likely mix with some snow for everyone, & possibly change to all snow over the high terrain where a slushy coating to an inch or two may accumulate late Friday night into Saturday morning. Most of us, though, will likely not see much of anything out of this due to temperatures being mainly above freezing right through Saturday.

Right now, New Year's Eve looks nice & quiet with temperatures initially backing off into the 20s, but then rising well into the 30s to low 40s by the time sunrise rolls around Sunday. Winds will blow hard on Sunday & push temps into the mid 40s for a midday high, but then a strong cold front will blow through & drop temps back into the 30s later in the day with maybe some flurries late.

Behind Sunday's cold front, the air will turn much colder Sunday night with significant lake snows developing east of the lakes. Winds should become more northerly later Monday & especially Monday night as a reinforcing shot of arctic air moves through. Coldest air of season will likely follow arctic front for Tuesday & Wednesday with more lake snows Tuesday & Tuesday night. Stay tuned for updates in the coming days.

Have a nice night everyone!

Bitter Winds with Lake Snows Slowly Diminishing...

2011-12-28T09:04:00.003-05:00

Written by John DiPasquale:

Hey finally something to smile about snow lovers. I know for most, it is not much, but at least it's an appetizer! Expect lake snows to wind down late today into early this evening due to some very dry air pushing in from the North & West with a small bubble of high pressure. Another coating to an inch or two will fall this afternoon before this happens though. Temperatures will hover within a few degrees of 20 through the afternoon with wind chills ranging from -5 to 10!

Late tonight the low & mid levels of the atmosphere will moisten up a bit more in advance of our next weather maker, a clipper. This should instigate a bit more lake snow late tonight into early tomorrow briefly & mainly Rochester North & East bound. Any lake snow will quickly move out of our viewing area early tomorrow & then a little general snow will arrive late in the day with the clipper. We could see a coating to a couple inches from late tomorrow through tomorrow night. Again, not a big deal, but could slicken the roads up a bit.

After a little sloppy system Friday-a little lake snow Friday night into Saturday morning & then a very mild start to 2012 it appears a BIG shot of arctic cold will blow in early to mid next week with potentially some significant lake snows! We'll see. Stay tuned.

Have a great night everyone & try to stay warm!

A Bit of Snow on the Way

2011-12-27T09:02:00.003-05:00

Written by John DiPasquale:

Well, snow lovers this will not be a big snow event by any means, but at least it will be something. We will likely pick up just a coating to maybe an inch or two late tonight for most. Some of the hills will get a bit more South of I-90. Tomorrow will be very blustery & cold with temperatures around 30 at 5 or 6am, but dropping to near 20 by day's end! Wind chills will also plummet into the single digits, & possibly a bit below zero at times late! What a rude awakening it will be after the mild weather overall last month & this month too! Also, with temperatures dropping so quickly any water on roads, parking lots & sidewalks will freeze fast on untreated surfaces. This will likely lead to a very slick ride in to work tomorrow morning. Also, gusty winds will cause the light fluffy lake snows that will be flying around to blow & drift a bit, which will reduce visibilities at times & cause slick spots on roads, especially West-East oriented ones. Snowfall totals for most will range from as little as an inch to as much as 3 or 4". However, across some of the hills per the snowfall map above, there could be 2 to 6" due to the quicker changeover to snow tonight. So again, the big story will not be the snow, but the brutal winds & cold blowing in tomorrow.

A bit more snow will likely fall later Thursday into Thursday night & possibly even Friday. There may be a bit of a mix Friday, though, due to some milder air. Stay tuned.

Have a nice night WNY!

Quiet & Mild into Tuesday, but...

2011-12-26T10:56:00.002-05:00

Written by John DiPasquale:

High & dry for the rest of today with breaks of sun expected to develop thanks to high pressure building in from the West. Tonight through tomorrow morning will be uneventful too with moderating temperatures later tonight into our Tuesday morning. Temperatures will peak out around 40 today, & then briefly drop back into the 30 to 35 degree range early tonight before rising to around 40 late tonight compliments of a southerly flow.

Tomorrow will be breezy & mild with a midday high in the mid 40s, before dropping off to around 40 by days end, as some showers will begin developing tomorrow afternoon. A strong cold front will get pulled through tomorrow night by the developing storm moving nearby. Once the storm yanks the cold front through tomorrow night, the rain will mix with & should quickly change to snow at first over the high terrain & then for everyone. Roads will likely slicken up & late Tuesday night into Wednesday, as the storm snow transitions to a brief period of lake snows on Wednesday. Temperatures will plummet through the 30s & into the 20s Wednesday morning with a gusty northwest wind. At this point, depending on exactly when the changeover occurs, it appears a good 1 to 4 or 2 to 5" accumulation for all seems to be in store for much of the area, with maybe even 6 or 7 inches in the hills South of Thruway, & in the most persistent lake snows by the time it all comes to an end later Wednesday afternoon. Stay tuned for updates from the News 8 Weather Center throughout the 24 to 36 hours. Yes, at the very least, this will probably prevent us from breaking the least amount of snow ever to fall in December in Rochester. Right now we have had 2.2", & the all-time record low is 2.6". This will likely be mother nature's little gift to all you snow lovers out there. It's likely not going to be big, but at least it will be something.

Happy Holidays to all!

An Uneventful Weather Holiday Weekend Ahead

2011-12-23T12:19:00.002-05:00

Written by John DiPasquale:

Ok snow lovers, all together now....BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO Mother Nature!!!!! Come on already!! We can't buy an accumulating snowfall! The latest storm provided mainly rain that ended as a little snow for many, but too little too late for any real accumulations to occur for most last night into early this morning. The rest of today will be turning colder with temps falling into the 20s. There will be some patchy black ice developing this afternoon due to the lingering wet spots & falling temps. There will be a couple of passing snow showers & flurries this afternoon, but that should do it.

The weekend will be mainly quiet with just some clouds & maybe a passing snow shower/flurry tomorrow from a fizzling storm, but there will probably be a little bit of a better chance of seeing a few wet snow showers that may mix with a little rain late Sunday with a disturbance & trough. Little, or no, accumulation of snow is expected for the holiday weekend, which is great news for travel, but not for a white Christmas:-(

It still looks quite uneventful & fairly mild into next week. Basically, no big changes in this boring pattern in the near future. There may be something come later next week & New Year's weekend, but that still a ways out. Stay tuned & have a great Christmas/Holiday weekend everyone!!!

NUISANCE LIGHT SNOW OVERNIGHT, COLDER

2011-12-22T14:26:00.003-05:00

Written By: Scott Hetsko

A weak and quick moving storm will slide across Virginia early Friday morning. Just enough cold air will work into the area tonight to produce a light but wet snowfall in the overnight hours. A little rain will fall initially but it should go to all snow after midnight.

You'll likely wake up to a white lawn Friday morning. Higher elevations in the Finger Lakes and Southern Tier may get as much as 3 or 4" of wet snow by morning. The air will remain on the cold side Friday and Saturday so it's possible some will have a white Christmas but I think Rochester's snow will melt by Sunday.

Still Some Hope...A Little Hope!

2011-12-21T11:18:00.003-05:00

Written by: Stacey Pensgen

After being on the warm side of two systems this week with just rain for us, we may get our shot of at least a little of the white stuff just in time for the first day of winter!

We may find ourselves close enough to a coastal low (and on the cold side) to bring us a minor accumulation of snow Thursday night and into Friday. We are not talking about a blockbuster event, or even a mentionable event at this point, but at least it's something!

Right now it looks like the Finger Lakes region may see the most snow, with a few inches of accumulation by Friday morning, and amounts diminishing as you head west toward Buffalo.

After that, another little piece of energy zooms in on Saturday, with a few more snow showers. Temperatures on Friday and Saturday will be seasonably cold, as we turn the page from Fall to Winter at 12:30 Thursday morning.

Still, it looks as though December 2011 will go down as one of the least snowiest Decembers in history here in Rochester. Don't worry though, we've still got a lot of winter to go!

Seasonably Chilly, but Quiet Today

2011-12-20T09:02:00.002-05:00

Written by John DiPasquale:

Another very mild month so far! 5th warmest through yesterday, but may drop a bit today before we climb again tomorrow & Thursday! Temperatures today will be seasonably chilly despite a good deal of sun this afternoon. Highs will be in the low to mid 30s.

Tonight clouds will increase with a brief period of a light icy mix possible at the onset of the precipitation late tonight before it quickly flips to a bit of light rain/drizzle by 4 or 5 am, if not sooner, as milder air moves in from the South.

WHAT HAPPENED TO DECEMBER?

2011-12-19T09:03:00.008-05:00

Written by: Scott Hetsko

A picture is worth a thousand words. Just compare the North America jet stream last December with this year and you begin to see why they are so different! Last year there was a huge blocking high pressure in the North Atlantic which forced bitter cold airmasses from Eastern Canada to pour into the Northeast. Storms also tracked further East along the coast which kept us on the cold, snowy side. When all was said and done, we had 46.5" of record snow last December.

The complete opposite is the case this December. The jet stream is sending storms into the Southwest while our flow has been zonal. Big storms can't form on weak temperature gradients that area associated with a West to East jet. We need the dips to make the weather fun. I don't expect this pattern to break through January 10th.

Will We Be Dreaming of a White Christmas?

2011-12-18T17:38:00.002-05:00

Written by: Stacey Pensgen

With Christmas day just a week away now, it is starting to become more clear whether it'll be a white one, or a green one.

We are still watching a few weak storms set to move through this week. While we all know we can't completely trust the models, they have been trending more northerly and westerly, keeping us on the warmer side, which means rain. With temperatures on Monday in the mid 40s, we'll see just a few scattered showers out ahead of a cold front. Once the front moves through, there won't be much moisture left, therefore no accumulating snow.

Another storm moves in on Wednesday, with the track of this one essentially right over us, or just to our north and west. Again, we will be in the mid 40s, with rain in the forecast. After that, we turn colder into the end of the week and the weekend, but we'll quiet things down in regards to storms.

We stand at 2.1" of snow on the season, which is now 16.8" below average. With two weeks left in the month, one of which we likely will see little (if any) snow, December 2011 could wind up being a major bust in the snow department!

Colder with a Bit of Snow this Weekend

2011-12-16T09:02:00.002-05:00

Written by John DiPasquale:

Mainly quiet, brisk & colder this afternoon, but tonight into Saturday there will be some limited lake snows developing as the colder air deepens. Winds will shift into the northwest & produce a coating to an inch or two for most, but as much as 1 to 4", if not a bit more, could very well fall in localized areas just North & East of Rochester & down in some of the hills South of the Thruway. Any lake snows will slowly diminish Saturday afternoon as high pressure builds in from the northwest. Temperatures tomorrow will struggle to get into the low 30s with a bit of a brisk breeze.

A few more snow showers will try to come through late Saturday night into Sunday with a warm front & disturbance & possibly leave a very light accumulation, but overall Sunday should turn out to be fairly uneventful the way it looks now. Highs on Sunday will make the mid 30s.

It will be milder to start next week on Monday back into the 40s, but it should turn a bit colder for Tuesday which may set us up for some snow &/or a mix developing later Tuesday/Tuesday night. The storm for the middle of next week may also be mainly rain, depending on the track of the storm. Stay tuned & we'll keep you posted on the latest.

Have a great day & weekend everyone!

Near Record Warmth Today; Back to Reality Tomorrow

2011-12-15T09:04:00.003-05:00

Written by John DiPasquale:

Near record warmth today, but reality returns late tonight into the weekend. Temperatures will range from 55 to near 60 through about 2 or 3, before the air begins to cool & then turns much colder later this evening & overnight in the wake of a 6 to 9pm this evening frontal passage. A few showers will likely accompany the front this evening & there may even be a couple of late night snow showers or flurries as temps plummet into the mid 30s.

It will be very windy tonight through early Friday afternoon before winds settle later tomorrow afternoon. Winds will gust in excess of 40 mph at times, especially in the hills later tonight into Friday. So if you have light x-mas decorations outside you may want to tie them down or bring them inside or into the garage.

Friday will be blustery with highs ranging from 35 to 40 with a few scattered snow showers possible through the early afternoon, as a reinforcing shot of colder air comes through.

Some flurries &/or a bit of light snow will most likely develop later Saturday & especially Saturday night. Snow MAY become briefly moderate late Saturday night into early Sunday as a warm front pushes into the area with a healthy disturbance. This COULD produce a light accumulation region wide by Sunday morning. It would look nice & festive. Wouldn't it? Stay tuned.

Again next Tuesday night into Wednesday we are still watching a storm that COULD produce some measurable snow, but it will depend on the track. The models have been jumping the track of this system from just North & West to just South & East the last few days.

Have a great day everyone!

Mild Today; Near Record Warmth Tomorrow!

2011-12-14T12:29:00.002-05:00

Written by John DiPasquale:

The incredible lackluster December continues here in WNY! Clouds will be rolling in this afternoon & eventually produce some showers late today & especially tonight into Thursday. I do not expect much rain out of this system over the next 24 to 36 hours. Somewhere between a tenth to a third of an inch with a few spots picking up a half an inch by days end Thursday. The warm front shown in the satellite/radar image on the left will pass through tonight with some showers & the winds will begin to howl between 15 & 30, with gusts ranging 40 to 50, especially in the hills which may lead to a few power outages & minor tree damage. Temperatures tonight will go from around 40 early into the low 50s for most by dawn tomorrow!

On Thursday, it will be very windy still & very mild with near record warmth, as highs warm well into the 50s to maybe even near 60 during the midday! If we hit 60, we will tie a record that has been standing since 1975! A strong cold front will blow through & push out the very mild air tomorrow night with a few showers turning to flurries late Thursday night. Temperatures come Friday will be back into the mid to upper 30s, which is where readings should be this time of year. There may be a few snow showers/flurries Friday morning, otherwise some sun will shine with a blustery wind.

The weekend will feature quite a few clouds & possibly a bit of snow Saturday night into Sunday morning ahead & with a warm front. At this point it does not look like much, but there may be some minor accumulations. The weather should quiet down Sunday into Monday for the most part & then we will have to watch a storm for the middle of next week. It still a ways away, but there is a chance we could see some significant snow &/or rain out of this one. Of course, it all depends on the track. The Euro has it hooking to the West, while the GFS is bringing it just to the South & East, which would be better for all you snow lovers out there. Time will tell.

Have a great night everyone & by the way, if you would like to submit a weather picture to weather@rochesterhomepage.net your shot will likely end up on the air around 645am some weekday morning during our morning show! It's as easy as taking a pic & sending it to us via the website above! Thank you to all who participate! Don't be shy!

Quiet, Boring Weather Continues

2011-12-13T09:03:00.003-05:00

Written by John DiPasquale:

More clouds slowly, but surely will blend, & at times entirely block out the sun, especially this afternoon. Reason for the clouds...A backdoor cold front trying to sneak in from the North, & a weak upper air disturbance passing through. Neither one will produce any precipitation though today. Highs will make the low 40s.

After another chilly, quiet night tonight, I do expect more clouds to build in later Wednesday with maybe even a shower or two moving in by dinner time. It will turn a bit breezy & milder Wednesday afternoon with highs getting into the low to mid 40s.

Wednesday night into Thursday we should pick up some rain with milder air blowing in on a gusty southwest wind. Temperatures will rise Wednesday night & continue to rise well into the 50s Thursday. The first of two cold fronts will blow through Thursday night with a few showers, followed by a reinforcing shot of colder air Friday with a few snow showers & squalls possible. Highs come Friday & over the weekend will drop back into the 30s, with a few snow showers & flurries possible this weekend too, but no significant snows are expected right into early next week at this time. Next Tuesday &/or Wednesday there will be a storm that MAY bring some snow/mix &/or rain. There will not be a lot of cold air in place, but possibly cold enough for snow & not rain. Snow lovers & those who want a White Christmas, I believe most, keep your fingers crossed for at least a little winter white by Christmas. There are signs of it being at least a little colder with maybe even a little snow & lake snow heading into Christmas weekend, but this is still a long ways out, so don't get too excited yet. Stay tuned.

DUDE, WHERE'S MY SNOW?

2011-12-12T15:31:00.002-05:00

Written By: Scott Hetsko

We've been here before. Fooled by a slow start only to get slammed by cold and snow in the new year. Time will tell of course but as of today, we have had only 1.8" of snow the first 12 days of December. There won't be any recorded snow for at least the next 7-10 days, maybe longer.

Accuweather still has us in the "Probable" category for a White Christmas. I would put us in the "Doubtful" but possible category. The important climate indices point to colder and snowy weather in January. We'll see, until then enjoy the break.

Sunny & Quiet

2011-12-12T09:02:00.003-05:00

Written by John DiPasquale:

High pressure & sunshine will be with us for the rest of today. What you see is what you get. Temperatures will hit the low & perhaps a few mid 40s this afternoon.

A backdoor weak cold front will throw some clouds at us for late tonight & especially tomorrow, but no real weather is expected to occur with the front, as it should stall to the North.

The next weather maker will be a storm system expected to swing out of the Plains late Wednesday into Thursday with some wind, warmer temperatures & rain. Sorry snow lovers, another storm hooking to our West! The storm will drag a strong cold front through Thursday night with maybe a few snow showers & a bit of lake snow to follow late Thursday night into Friday as temperatures will turn more seasonable Friday into the weekend. This will be good news for the slopes, as at least they will be able to make some snow with the colder temperatures. Otherwise, at this time I do not see any significant snows in the foreseeable future. Christmas is still almost two weeks away so we do still have time & some hope to salvage a white Christmas, but we'll see. Time will tell.

Have a nice day WNY & enjoy the sunshine!

Where is the Snow??

2011-12-11T21:07:00.002-05:00

Written by: Stacey Pensgen

As we head into our second week in December, the snow lovers are wondering, "where's the snow?" - and the weather, for that matter!

At this point last year, we had already recorded over 2 feet of snow (27.7", to be exact) on our way to a record-setting month. So far this year, we've recorded a dismal 1.8" of the white stuff at the airport. In reality, we aren't that far off from where we should be. On average, we should be at just over a half of a foot of snow so far for the month of December. But, the warmer than average temperatures certainly haven't helped matters. The month of December has been 4 degrees warmer than normal, with only 1 day so far staying below freezing (the day we recorded all 1.8" of snow this month).

The good or bad news - this upcoming week will be another one with above average temperatures, with most (if not every work day this week) hitting 40 degrees or higher.

Looking for some snow? We may get another quick shot of cold air next weekend, but it appears as if that will be short lived. Looking for a white Christmas? You may have to go to the ski resorts! That is, if they can keep their snow...

LOCALLY HEFTY LAKE SNOW WEST

2011-12-08T14:57:00.002-05:00

Written By: Scott Hetsko

To get my snow fix, I just may hop into my car and hit the thruway West toward Pembroke on Friday. Initially the heaviest snow will fall in Northern Erie, Southern Niagara counties on Friday. As the wind shifts to a more Westerly direction, the edge of that single band may briefly reach Western Monroe county tomorrow afternoon.

As you can see and as usual, the highest snowfall will be concentrated within 30 miles of Lake Erie. I doubt that Rochester will get more than an inch or maybe 2 West. After this, no snow in sight for a long time!

Sun Today; Bit of Snow Tomorrow

2011-12-08T09:04:00.002-05:00

Written by John DiPasquale:

The pressure gradient between high pressure to the southwest & the departing East coast storm will be pretty tight today. As a result, the winds will be blowing pretty hard through the day making it feel very much like December 8th despite the sun. It is nice to see the sun, though, after not having it appear since Sunday. Ok. so we are quiet, brisk & chilly today, but how about the snow potential late tonight through Friday?

At this point, it appears everyone will see at least some snow in the air. However, most of us should not pick up any more than a coating to an inch or two, as temperatures will be mainly above freezing throughout the day tomorrow in the mid to upper 30s. To the West of Rochester more significant lake snows will develop late tonight & last right into Friday night before tapering off late tomorrow night/eary Saturday as high pressure builds in from the West. The latest data is suggesting that lake snows will set up & hang out between Buffalo & Niagra Falls to near Batavia to the Lake Ontario shoreline & may even affect at times Hilton in Northwest Monroe county from late tonight through much of Friday. Late Friday into Friday night the strong cold front will finally, slowly push through, which will shift the winds to more of a west-northwesterly direction. The front will be accompanied with it's own snow showers, but will probably carry a few of the squalls through the Greater Rochester area & possibly the Western Finger Lakes regions too late Friday into Friday evening. Bottom line, I believe the worst part of the day for most with regards to visibility & possibly some slick roads will likely be late Friday into Friday night. In the most persistent snows a good 2 to 6", if not more, will likely accumulate in the aforementioned areas West of the Rochester area.

High pressure will clear us out for Saturday, Sunday & at least Monday before the next system tries to throw some clouds & possibly a little rain &/or wet snow late Tuesday into early Wednesday. Temperatures will go from the upper 20s to around 30 Saturday back into the 40s for Monday & Tuesday next week.

Colder, but Mainly Quiet

2011-12-06T09:02:00.004-05:00

Written by John DiPasquale:

Hello everyone! Well, as you can see on the temperature map from mid morning this morning, the mid winter chill has a good hold on the Plains & Upper Great Lakes region. The really cold stuff will not get in here, but we will receive a modified, glancing blow from this arctic air mass Friday night into Saturday. Precipitation wise, there will be a few light spotty showers & drizzle around today & tonight, which I believe will change to a few flurries/snow shower late tonight into the start of our Wednesday. There may even be a bit of freezing drizzle/mist across the high terrain South of the Thruway late tonight & to begin tomorrow. Be mindful of this possibility if you have any travel plans in the hills South later tonight & tomorrow morning.

Most of our Wednesday will be quiet & chilly with intervals of sun developing. Meanwhile, a nor'easter will be developing near the coast, but will likely travel too far East to have really any significant impact on our area. What the storm will do, though, is increase the winds & the chill which could very well spell a little lake snow late Wednesday night into Thursday morning on a west-northwest flow. This will likely not be a big deal, but something we will be keeping an eye on.

A strong cold front will blow through later Friday/Friday night with some snow showers & maybe a bit of lake snow to follow Friday night into Saturday morning. Highs Friday will only be in the mid 30s, while we will have a tough time getting out of the 20s Saturday, despite some sun! Brrr!!!

Sunday should turn a bit breezy & milder, more seasonable with some sun.

Colder Air on the Way

2011-12-05T09:03:00.002-05:00

Written by John DiPasquale:

Damp & cooler, but still mild for this time of year. Between today & tonight we should pick up about a half an inch to almost inch of rain, but no snow is expected through the start of Tuesday. However, in the wake of the slow moving cold front's passage late today/early tonight it will eventually turn cold enough for any lingering light showers & drizzle to most likely mix with & change to a little wet snow &/or flurries late Tuesday into Tuesday night. A chilly northerly flow will likely provide a bit of lake enhancement/effect Tuesday night into early Wednesday with a coating to maybe an inch in spots, especially in the hills South of Rochester Tuesday night. That would be nice to at least make it look a bit more festive! Temperatures Tuesday will be near 40 & then inch back into the mid 30s by the end of the day, as colder air oozes in.

High pressure will build in Wednesday & should provide some sun & squash out any lake flurries. Highs on Wednesday will be in the upper 30s to around 40, which is where should be for early December.

On Thursday, there will be a developing storm across the Carolinas along the slow moving cold front that will stall near or just off the Eastern Seaboard Wednesday night. At this time, it looks like an upper level trough swinging in from South Central Canada will prevent this storm from having any significant affects on us as it should stay well off to the South & East of the area Thursday & Thursday night.

What will affect us on Friday, though, will be a strong cold front associated with the aforementioned trough. This front should trigger some snow showers & may lay down a light accumulation of snow with the coldest air of the season to follow late Friday into Saturday. A limited amount of lake snow is possible East & Southeast of the lake late Friday into Saturday under the cold west-northwest flow projected to occur. Somewhat milder air will try to make a return for Sunday & Monday with dry weather expected.

Have a great day & get ready for a more seasonable air mass to be with us for some time after today.

Nice Start to December!

2011-12-01T09:02:00.003-05:00

Written by John DiPasquale:

High pressure protecting us & providing WNY with a good deal of sun, which should mix with some clouds this afternoon based on the latest satellite trends as of late this morning. Highs today thanks to the extra sun will be in the mid 40s! Yes, another day with above average high temperatures.

The blue line with the triangles connected to it on the left is a cold front. This front will be swinging through tomorrow as it weakens, but it should have enough gusto to produce some snow showers that may mix with a bit of rain tomorrow morning through the first part of the afternoon. In the wake of the front, there should be some sun developing before the sun sets tomorrow & temperatures will likely back off into the low to mid 30s by day's end. Little, if any, accumulation is expected on our Friday with the mainly snow showers developing & drifting through during the mid morning through the first part of the afternoon.

Strong high pressure will build in & likely provide the coldest start to a day this season Saturday with lows early Saturday ranging from the upper teens to mid 20s under a mainly clear sky. On Saturday, though, appreciable sun & a brisk southerly flow will develop & aid in warming us well into the 40s during the afternoon. Winds will whip around really good Sunday, but the winds will be warming winds, & we should have some sun, especially during the morning, as highs get up into the low to mid 50s! A slowly approaching cold front may trigger a shower or two late Sunday, but for the most part it will be dry through the weekend, which is great news if you have decorating plans, or getting/cutting a Christmas Tree.

Next week still looks much colder, as temperatures begin to cool Monday back into the 40s with some showers possible, followed by much colder air oozing in behind a cold front Tuesday which should flip any rain to snow on Tuesday with a little lake snow possible Wednesday. The timing, evolution & track of the possible storm early to mid next week will dictate how much & what we actually see next week. The storm may not affect us until later Tuesday into Wednesday, but we will definitely have a close eye on the Monday night through Wednesday night time frame. Either way, it does look like we will turn much colder for much of next week. We'll keep you posted.

Blustery with the November Nip Back

2011-11-30T09:02:00.003-05:00

Written by John DiPasquale:

The feel of winter will be in the air today with temperatures dipping back into the 30s this afternoon & wind chills dropping into the 20s & low 30s! To add some ambiance there will be some snow & rain showers flying around too, mainly this afternoon & early evening. There may even be a slushy coating on some grassy surfaces & car tops. The best chance to pick up a coating to an inch or two will be across the hills South of Rochester. Once the trough clears the area this evening & overnight, the sky will clear some & temperatures will back off into the upper 20s to around 30, which will likely cause a bit of black ice to form on some side streets, parking lots & sidewalks late tonight & early Thursday. Keep this in mind when you head out early tomorrow morning to work & school. There may be a few slick in spots.

Overall, though, Thursday looks pretty good with more in the way of clouds blending with more & more intervals of sun later in the day especially so. Highs tomorrow will be in the low 40s with very little wind, which will make it feel better tomorrow compared to today for sure.

A weak cold front will swing through Friday with some clouds & possibly a passing rain/snow shower or two. Behind Friday's front, the temperatures will probably back off into the 30s later in the day with more sun developing to finish Friday.

Right now the weekend still looks quite good with a good deal of sun, a bit of breeze & highs solidly into the 40s on Saturday. On Sunday, we will likely see more clouds enter the sky, but it should remain mainly, if not totally, dry with a gusty south wind warming the temperatures possibly into the low 50s, if not a bit higher! However, a strong cold front will most likely move through Monday afternoon/night with some rain. Once the front passes a much colder air mass will follow & cause any rain to change to snow late Monday night into Tuesday the way it looks now. Of course, it is still 5 or 6 days out, so I'm sure many things will change between now & then regarding the timing & precipitation amounts. Stay tuned.

Have a nice day & try to stay warm everyone.

WARM NOVEMBER COULD BE BAD FOR SNOWLOVERS

2011-11-29T14:43:00.003-05:00

Written By: Scott Hetsko

Only two more days are left in November and we currently rank 5th warmest all time in average temperature for November. Reliable records go back about 140 years for Rochester. The bad news for those who crave another Winter like last year is that NO ENSUING WINTER HAD OVER 86" OF SNOW.

Does this guarantee that we won't get 100" this year? Of course not but we cannot ignore statistical history. As for more immediate weather, I do see the pattern turning colder with the calendar. As a matter of fact, next week will be much colder and could stay that way for a little while. I won't get involved in silly debates about forecasts of 90 days. In a general way, we should see an up and down Winter with more thaws than last Winter. I still think 100" or better is very possible with one month of over 40". No one knows, I'm humble enough to know that!

Mild Today, but Not Tomorrow

2011-11-29T12:31:00.003-05:00

Written by John DiPasquale:

Rains will continue to slowly build in from South-Southwest to North-Northeast this afternoon. Rain will become heavy at times, with possibly even an embedded t-storm later this afternoon & early tonight. The warmest readings 60 to 65 will be found across the Finger Lakes South & East of Rochester, while 55 to 60 should do it for Rochester & 50 to 55 West of town. Either way, everyone will be mild, breezy & turning wet.

Tonight the storm responsible for the developing rains will push through with it's cold front & the thermometer will showcase a more seasonable chill late tonight & especially tomorrow. Lows tonight will be near 40, & highs tomorrow with scattered rain & snow showers will hover within a few degrees of 40 through much of the day. Wind chills will be in the upper 20s to mid 30s! Bundle up tomorrow! A little slushy coating to an inch may accumulate in the hills tomorrow afternoon & early evening, but most will see little, if any, accumulation.

High pressure will build in from the West later tomorrow night into Thursday with some sun expected to shine here for all Thursday. Highs on Thursday will be seasonable chilly between 40 & 45.

A weakening cold front will swing through Friday with a couple rain &/or snow showers followed by a lot of sun later in the day. It will be brisk & chilly Friday with highs near 40.

The weekend looks good to start with a good deal of sun Saturday with highs in the low 40s. Sunday will likely feature more clouds & a stiff southerly breeze with a couple of rain showers possible late in the day with highs climbing toward 50!

After Sunday, though, it will likely turn much colder during the day Monday into especially Tuesday with a little lake snow possible. Stay tuned.

Chilly & Damp Today; Much Warmer Tomorrow

2011-11-28T09:01:00.002-05:00

Written by John DiPasquale:

Rains of last night & this morning will continue to diminish as we head into the afternoon, as the cold front moves a little further away from us & the forcing weakens. Temperatures today will climb no higher than the mid to upper 40s, so it definitely will feel & for that matter look more like late November compared to the holiday weekend.

Meanwhile, an intensifying surface & upper level storm in the deep South will be producing accumulating snows across parts of the deep South! This storm initially will pull the aforementioned cold front back through the area as a warm front late tonight/early Tuesday. However, late Tuesday into Tuesday night this storm will produce some rain & ultimately chill us down to more seasonable levels with a bit of snow likely to be in the air Wednesday with even minor accumulations possible, mainly in the hills. After reaching 60 to 65 Tuesday with a gusty Southeast wind, temperatures will be in the low to mid 40s Wednesday for highs under a brisk Southwest flow.

A brisk, chilly Northwest wind will likely produce a little bit of lake effect rain & snow later Wednesday night into Thursday here in the Greater Rochester area and into the Finger Lakes, but it should not last too long as high pressure will build in & squash it out later Thursday.

Friday will begin cold & quiet with some sun, but the sky should cloud up with a couple of rain and snow showers possible during the afternoon with a cold front.

The early take on the weekend is pretty quiet & seasonably chilly with some sun Saturday, but maybe a little snow shower activity Sunday. There may be a really good shot of cold air & lake snows early to mid next week, but this time of so much changes so fast I would not get too excited yet snow lovers. An overall a colder pattern & more representative of late autumn and early winter weather will be evolving later this week into the upcoming weekend & beyond, as we begin December (the start of the meteorological winter).

Nice & Mild Now; Much Colder Next Week

2011-11-25T10:57:00.002-05:00

Written by John DiPasquale:

An early October feel rather than late November today & tomorrow. There will be some sun today & tomorrow, but there should be more clouds to begin Saturday before more sun evolves as the day progresses. Highs today will be up around 60, while 55 to 60 should do it on Saturday! If we see more sun than expected Saturday, temperatures could reach the low 60s! Either way, it will be mild & breezy. Enjoy it while it's here. Forecast map to the left displays a strong cold front that will eventually make it through, but the big question is exactly when will it cross the area? At this point, it appears that the front should cross through sometime Sunday morning/afternoon with some rain. Behind the front it will turn more seasonable later Sunday & especially Sunday night into Monday. However, there's data that's suggesting that the cold front will not make it through until late Sunday or even Sunday night! If later solution is what ends up happening then much of Sunday would be dry, windy & very mild again! Stay tuned to News 8 throughout the day today & into the weekend for the latest regarding the timing of the frontal passage Sunday/Sunday night.

Either way, it will be more seasonable by Monday with a spotty snow/rain shower or two and intervals of sun. Temperatures for highs Monday will likely range from 40 to 45.

Many signs are pointing toward another colder shot of air to blow through here later Tuesday/Tuesday night with scattered rain & snow showers with a limited & brief shot of lake snow shortly thereafter. Temperatures may drop out of the 40s & into the 30s Tuesday depending on when the front comes through. Wednesday should be brisk & cold with a little bit of snow in the air possibly off the lake. Right now it looks like December may start off pretty cold with at least a bit of snow potentially in the air, as a deepening trough tries to develop here in the East late next week. Still a ways out, but data has been pretty consistent in suggesting this as a distinct possibility. Let's see if this trend continues over the weekend??

Enjoy the rest of your holiday weekend everyone!

What a Nice Thanksgiving Day Treat!

2011-11-24T12:24:00.003-05:00

Written by John DiPasquale:

A HAPPY THANKSGIVING TO ALL!!!

The rest of our Thanksgiving Day will be very nice with a good deal of sun, but I am beginning to question how mild it will actually get Friday & Saturday. Why is that? Well, as of the writing of this blog out to the west across the Lower Great Lakes, Midwest & Ohio River Valley there is quite a bit of low cloud cover hanging around keeping it much cooler than it would otherwise be. The low clouds are slowly burning off, but are pretty persistent. With that being said, the same air mass that's over areas to the West experiencing all the low clouds will be over us late tonight into Friday & Saturday. This is why low 60s may be tough to achieve tomorrow & Saturday. Essentially, what's happening out to the West is the unseasonably mild air aloft is moving over the colder ground and air near the surface which is what's producing the low clouds. Here's an analogy for you. A cold glass of water sitting out in warmer room temperature air. What happens? Condensation/water droplets form on the outside of the glass. This is what's happening in the lower levels of the atmosphere & because of the inversion set up with the warm air on top of the cold air mixing the low level clouds out isn't going so smooth. There's also quite a bit of moisture in the soil after Tuesday night & Wednesday morning's soaker adding more moisture to the lower levels of the atmosphere. Therefore I still expect it to be mild, but I really think it will probably only warm into the mid 50s, instead of the 60s tomorrow & Saturday. If we luck out & see a good deal of sun on the other hand & can mix down more of the warmer, drier air down to the surface than I think we will then 60+ degree temperatures will happen. We'll see, but I wanted to at least give everyone a heads up that it may be cloudier than not tomorrow & Saturday. We should see at least a limited amount of sun both days, but the sun & warmth will likely be somewhat held at bay because of the reasons stated above.

Come Sunday, a cold front will push some showers through that could end as a period of wet snow late in the day or Sunday evening, as another storm may develop along the cold front to the East. There may even be a bit of accumulation late Sunday through Sunday night, especially over the high terrain. Stay tuned for updates throughout the holiday weekend regarding this potential. That being said, you may want to leave wherever you are staying Sunday earlier instead of later. We will keep you posted.

After the weekend there should be a seasonable chill, some wind & a few spotty rain and/or snow showers around through Wednesday.

Have a great day & rest of your Thanksgiving everyone!

Blustery Today, but a Real Treat Thereafter

2011-11-23T09:02:00.003-05:00

Written by John DiPasquale:

Gusty northerly winds will make the upper 30s feel more like 25 to 30. Bundle up if you are going to be out & about this afternoon.

High pressure will build in from the South & West tonight into our Thanksgiving & set us up for a real treat tomorrow. A good deal of sun will shine, & the temperatures will warm into the low & mid 50s with the help of a southwest breeze.

Get this...Friday is going to be even better! More sun, a warming breeze & highs into the low & mid 60s!! Wow!

The remainder of the holiday weekend will feature some clouds later Friday night into Saturday morning due to a backdoor cold front that should stall just to the North before retreating to the North as a warm front later Saturday. As a result of this, we should feel the low 60s again Saturday afternoon with a good deal of sun to round out Saturday. On Sunday, a slow moving cold front will throw more clouds in here, & possibly a few showers for the afternoon, but it will remain very mild with a gusty southerly wind. Highs Sunday should make the low 60s yet again!

After one more really mild day Monday, we should begin to turn much colder Tuesday, & especially later next week as we kick off December. Yes, at this point, it looks like we may even have at least a bit of snow in the air to begin the new month or just thereafter. We'll see. Hang in there snow lovers. Your time is coming...

Rains Knocking on the Door

2011-11-22T12:29:00.002-05:00

Written by John DiPasquale:

Mainly dry, chilly & brisk this afternoon. However, one to two inches of rain will fall tonight through tomorrow morning. Northern New York into the Northern half of New England will experience snow & ice later tonight into Wednesday. So if you have travel plans up North plan accordingly. The weather should improve during the afternoon & evening up that way too, though. We will slowly dry out later tomorrow afternoon & especially tomorrow night into Turkey Day.

Sunshine & milder temperatures will be with us for gobble-gobble day thanks to a strong area of high pressure. Temperatures will climb into the low & perhaps mid 50s Thursday, & into the 60s for Black Friday & much of the remainder of the holiday weekend!! There will be a lot of sun Friday, but it appears some clouds will try to push in with a backdoor cold front Friday night into the Saturday morning before they retreat back to the North, as the front retreats in the form of a warm front. Some more sun will greet us on Sunday, before a few showers attempt to work in with slightly cooler air for Monday. Much colder air should arrive later next week with maybe some snow with it as we head toward the start of December, but it's still over a week away, so we'll see. Stay tuned.

Have a great day & be careful if you will be doing any driving tonight, because that rain will be very heavy at times, reducing visibility & possibly causing some minor flooding in spots into the start of tomorrow.

Sun Busts Out this Afternoon

2011-11-21T09:01:00.003-05:00

Written by John DiPasquale:

Finally the scene to the left has changed as drier air building in from the North has won out & the clouds are giving way to sun! Today's highs will be much lower than yesterday, but at least we will enjoy a good deal of sun through the rest of this Monday. Highs today will be in the low 40s.

Tonight will be quiet & cold, & tomorrow will begin sunny, but unfortunately the sun will not last as a fast moving storm coming up from the Southern Plains makes it's presence felt with increasing clouds & a good dose of rain from late tomorrow through the start of Wednesday. About an 1" to 1.50" will likely fall during the aforementioned time frame. Some lingering showers may end as a bit of snow/mix Wednesday afternoon, but for the most part this event should be a wet one, which is good news for all your travelers out there. Highs Tuesday & Wednesday should be in the mid 40s.

Wednesday night into Thanksgiving a strong area of high pressure with plenty of dry air will build in & set the stage for a very nice Turkey Day! Lots of sun & temperatures warming to around 50 on Thursday afternoon!

High pressure will drift off to the South & East & result in a warming, southerly flow for Friday & Saturday! In addition to the warming Friday & Saturday, we should experience a good deal of sun, especially Friday. Highs Black Friday & Saturday should hit the low to mid 60s!! Tough to be shopping inside on a day like Friday is going to be. Try to enjoy some of Friday & Saturday outside, if you can.

Slightly cooler & eventually colder air will build in Sunday & especially next week.

Have a great afternoon all!

First Accumulating Snow Yesterday!

2011-11-18T09:02:00.003-05:00

Written by John DiPasquale: Well, the first accumulating snow occured for many late yesterday afternoon into last evening when a coating to inch fell. This picture to the left, though, showcases where some of the heaviest snow fell in WNY down in Wyoming County in the town of Portagville where about 3" of snow accumulated thanks to Lake Erie. The second snow pic was taken in Honeoye by our evening producer here at News 8. Most of the snowfall late yesterday into early last night was not from lake effect, but a fairly healthy disturbance that moved through. Areas East-Southeast of Lake Ontario & Erie were the regions to be affected by several inches of lake snow, especially East of Lake Ontario. Not as much fell East of Erie. Either way, I'm sure snow lovers out there are feeling a little better after all the mild weather we've had lately. Yes, the snow will melt away quickly, if it's not gone already, as temperatures will warm solidly into the 40s with a brisk, but moderating southwest wind developing for the afternoon. We will also have a decent amount of sun blending with some lake clouds from Lake Erie here in the Greater Rochester area.

A warm front will clear the area later tonight allowing a warming southwest breeze to really take hold come our Saturday. We will also have a good deal of sun for much of Saturday making it feel even better! The bad thing about the gusty breeze Saturday & Sunday is that feel like readings will be down into the 40s, but it will definitely feel more comfy than yesterday & today. So enjoy! There may be a shower or two late Saturday night into Sunday as a cold front approaches & should make it's way through Sunday afternoon. This will cause the temperatues to drop from a midday high in the mid 50s back into the upper 40s by days end Sunday with a colder wind developing behind the front.

Monday will start off cold & quiet with some sun, but clouds should increase pretty quickly with a bit of rain possibly developing later in the day, which may even mix with a bit of snow, especially over the higher terrain right into Monday night.

Some sun & low to mid 40s will be felt Tuesday following the weak low & disturbance Monday.

Then the BIG QUESTION is...How does the biggest travel day of the year look for all the travelers Wednesday? Well, it looks like there will be a storm intensifying off to the South & East of the area, but the big question is the exact track & intensity of this possible nor'easter. The Euro is suggesting some snow &/or rain & wind from it Wednesday, while the GFS another trusted long range forecast model is pointing toward keeping it just off to our South & East. However, usually the Euro has a better track record with storms & their ultimate tracks. Something we will definitely have to watch very closely in the coming days. Stay tuned.

Right now, Turkey Day is looking pretty good, but it's still almost a week away, so keep it here & we'll keep you posted.

Stay warm everyone & enjoy your weekend!

Cold West Winds = Lake Snows Not Here

2011-11-17T09:04:00.003-05:00

Written by John DiPasquale:

Today will be blustery & quiet for the most part with a few general snow showers & flurries developing late in the day into early tonight with an upper air disturbance & trough. Little, if any, accumulation will occur for most, but East of Lake Erie & Ontario there will be some accumulation tonight, especially East of Lake Ontario where 4 to as much as 8 or 9 inches will likely pile up away from the lake. Lows tonight will drop into the mid 20s to around 30 with a brisk wind.

High pressure will build in from the South & West & provide a nicer looking & more seasonable day to end our work & school week. Brisk winds will blow Friday, though, making the mid to perhaps upper 40s feel more like the 30s tomorrow afternoon.

The weekend is looking pretty good once again! High pressure to the South & East & a cold front slowly approaching from the West will result in a warming southwest flow with a good deal of sunshine expected. Highs will get into the mid 50s. On Sunday, it will probably be even milder with highs up near 60 during the late morning/midday, before slipping back through the 50s later in the afternoon, as a cold front sneaks through. There will be quite a few clouds moving through on Sunday associated with the cold front, but shower activity will be limited with just a couple showers possible to finish out the weekend.

Behind Sunday's cold front it will turn seasonably chilly for at least the first half of next week with highs back into the 40s, & possibly a bit of rain & snow developing with a little weak low later Monday into Monday night. Beyond Monday, another storm may try to develop down South, but at this point long range data is suggesting this storm will slide South of us Wednesday & not really affect us, which would be good for all the travelers. Stay tuned & we'll keep you posted.

Have a great day & try to stay warm everyone!

Taste of Winter Chill Thursday

2011-11-16T08:51:00.004-05:00

Written by John DiPasquale:

It will be turning a bit colder this afternoon, but especially late tonight into tomorrow is when coldest air of the season will arrive. Temperatures will nose dive back into the low to mid 30s tonight & struggle to inch up near 40 tomorrow afternoon! Winds will be blowing hard out of the west too on our Thursday which will just accentuate the chill & make it feel more like the 20s to low 30s throughout the day. BRRR!!! The cold air will be accompanied by a limited amount of moisture in the form of some clouds & possibly a few snow showers & flurries developing later in the day Thursday with a disturbance. Some lake snows will likely get going off the East ends of Lake Erie & Ontario, but should not add up to much in Southwestern New York, but several inches may pile up over the Tug Hill Plateau East of Lake Ontario Thursday afternoon & night. Come Friday, the weather will quiet down & begin to warm up a bit, as high pressure builds in & quickly shifts off to the South & East of the area. This will result in a return southerly, warming flow Friday afternoon. Highs Friday should make the mid to perhaps upper 40s, but the gusty breeze will certainly make it feel more like the 30s to around 40 instead. Still it will be an improvement compared to what we are going to feel Thursday.

High pressure will remain close enough to the region Saturday to keep us somewhat sunny & the southerly flow will continue to warm us even further! Highs Saturday afternoon should hit the mid & upper 50s!

On Sunday, it will remain mild, if not even a bit milder than Saturday as temperatures will be well up into the 50s to around 60, despite quite a few clouds & possibly a shower or two. It will also likely be pretty windy on Sunday too. Enjoy the milder weather this weekend everyone!

A cold front will most likely get through here Sunday night/early Monday & behind it temperatures will turn more seasonable for a few days with fairly uneventful weather the way it looks now. However, come Turkey Day into much of the holiday weekend the weather is looking milder again with maybe a bit of rain. We'll see. Thanksgiving & the holiday weekend are still a long ways out there, so I'm sure the forecast will change at least somewhat, but that's the early indications by the forecast data.

Have a nice day WNY!

Another Mild November Day

2011-11-15T09:02:00.002-05:00

Written by John DiPasquale:

Mild & mostly cloudy through much of today, but as the afternoon progresses we should be able to get some sun out from West to East for a little while before it sets. Temperatures today will range from 55 to 60. So yes, cooler than yesterday's mid 60s, but still a good ten degrees or so above average. Enjoy!

Tonight will be mainly quiet with more clouds returning later tonight into the start of Wednesday, as a cold front swings through. There's a slight risk for a spotty shower/sprinkle late tonight & Wednesday morning, but most of us should stay dry. Behind the cold front, it will turn more brisk & colder with temperatures dipping back into the 40s by day's end tomorrow after getting into the low & mid 50s for a midday high.

Tomorrow night into Thursday it will turn even colder with highs only reaching around 40 on Thursday with a gusty west wind accentuating the chill. A disturbance & trough will also likely set off a few snow showers & flurries, but nothing major. There may be some accumulating lake snows briefly later Thursday into early Thursday night East of lakes Erie & Ontario, but most of us will not see any accumulation.

High pressure will build in & shift just off to the South & East Friday afternoon setting the stage for a moderating breeze Friday. Highs, with some sun, should be in the mid to upper 40s to end the week, & warm well into the 50s to around 60 Saturday! In addition to the warmth Saturday, there will be some more sun!

Sunday will be brisk & a little cooler with a shower or two possible thanks to a cold front. Most of Sunday right now, though, looks dry. So overall, the weekend looks pretty good right now once again. What an overall stretch of weather we've been in lately!

Quite honestly, I have been looking for signs of a prolonged cold snap & heavier, measurable, widespread snows, but as of now I do not see much of anything too wintry through at least most of this month, if not beyond. We'll see. A lot can change in a short amount of time. Stay tuned. A reminder last November was quite tame with regards to wintry weather in November, but it turned quickly in December. Again, stay tuned.

Have a great day everyone!

John

Windy, Mild & Becoming Wet Today

2011-11-14T09:03:00.003-05:00

Written by John DiPasquale:

The mild, benign November continues here in WNY today. Yes, we will contend with some developing rain and maybe even a t-storm later today and/or early tonight, but as far as any wintry weather goes, there will be no signs of it to start the week. Highs today will be solidly into the 60s, after waking up to temperatures around 60 early this morning! It was like summer last night with a breeze and quite a bit of cloud cover. A "cold" front will slide through later tonight & cool us off a little for tomorrow, as highs will range from about 55 to 60. Still mild for this time of year, but a little closer to seaonable levels. We will also have some sun return to the sky during the day Tuesday, which will be nice.

Come Wednesday, the front that is coming through later tonight will put the brakes on & act as railroad tracks for a storm system developing toward the tail end of the front down South. The combination of the storm will track up along the front into the big cities of the Northeast and another, stronger cold front moving through Wednesday will likely produce quite a few clouds and possibly a few scattered showers, mainly during the morning & early afternoon. Behind Wednesday's cold front, temperatures will tumble back out of the low 50s during the midday into & through the 40s with a gusty wind and a little sun attempting to develop later in the day.

A disturbance and the cold air will trigger a few snow showers and flurries Thursday, especially later in the day, & it will be very cold and blustery with highs only around 40, and wind chills in the 20s & 30s!

High pressure will build back in for Friday & much of the upcoming weekend once again, which will allow for some sun and much milder temperatures to return, along with a pretty good warming wind too. There might be a shower or two later Sunday, but at this point it looks like another nice November weekend! When will we pay the price?? Stay tuned.

Have a great day WNY!

A Blustery Veteran's Day (11/11/11)

2011-11-11T09:03:00.002-05:00

Written by John DiPasquale:

First, & foremost, I want to thank all the veterans who have served this country & allowed/allow us to live our daily lives with the freedom & peace we enjoy today. Thank you so much for all you do! You men & women are the best!!

A cold & blustery Veteran's Day with scattered lake effect snow & rain showers will be around, especially East & Southwest of the Rochester area this morning into the early afternoon, but there should be a limited amount of activity later this afternoon & early tonight. Little, if any, accumulation is expected, but there may be a slushy coating on grassy surfaces in the hills South of Rochester especially so. Highs today will range from 40 to 45, but it will feel more like the 20s & 30s due to a gusty west-northwest wind accentuating the chill. Bundle up if you are headed out today!

After a couple of early snow showers mixed with a bit of rain, tonight will be quiet, brisk & chilly as lows will drop into the mid 30s before rising a bit late.

The Veteran's Day weekend will be nicer with mainly gray start to Saturday, but some sun should develop tomorrow afternoon and gusty southwesterly winds should warm us into the low to mid 50s. On Sunday, temperatures will warm into the upper 50s to around 60 with a very gusty south-southwest wind, which will make it feel cooler than it's going to be throughout the weekend. Winds could gusts over 40 mph on Sunday! Clouds will increase Sunday with a shower or two possible late, but most of the weekend looks dry. Good news if you have any outdoor plans.

After a few showers with a cold front Sunday night, Monday should feature some sun, a brisk breeze & cooler, but still above average temperatures in the low to mid 50s.

Colder air will continue to slowly ooze in Tuesday, but it should be quite sunny with highs around 50.

By next Wednesday and Thursday it will probably be quite a bit colder with a few snow showers possible Wednesday. We will see. Snow lovers...I know you are looking for the first accumulating widespread snowfall, but unfortunately at this point I don't see anything at least for the next 7 to 10 days out. Of course, this could change so be sure to stay tuned to News 8 for the latest over the coming days.

Have a great day & weekend everyone!

November is Back

2011-11-10T09:02:00.002-05:00

Written by John DiPasquale:

The November feel, along with the lake effect is back. After the last two days of almost 70 degree weather here in Rochester with sun, today will feature more clouds, a brisk wind & a spotty shower/sprinkle, but for the most part many of us will be dry today. However, areas Southwest of Rochester will have to contend with some showers off Lake Erie on a chilly west-southwest flow. Any rain showers will mix with, if not change to snow as colder air oozes in from the West. Temperatures today will hover in the mid to upper 40s, with wind chills near 40. Brrr!!

Tonight should be pretty quiet for most of us, including the Rochester area, with just a couple of spotty snow & rain showers around. Across Wyoming, Southern Livingston counties there could be a slushy minor accumulation of lake snow.

On Friday, Veteran's Day, a trough will swing through & produce a scattering of snow showers mixed with rain & behind the trough the winds will shift into more of a west-northwest direction setting us up for a bit of lake snow mixed with rain Friday afternoon & evening, but it should not be a big deal. No accumulation is expected, except maybe a little coating on top of some of the hills.

The upcoming Veteran's Day weekend will be nicer with some sun developing Saturday after maybe an early shower/flurry. It will be windy throughout the weekend, but at least it will turn milder with highs in the low to maybe 50s Saturday afternoon. The tail end of the weekend should consist of more clouds, & a shower or two late, but most of Sunday & the weekend should be dry! Highs on Sunday will probably climb up to around 60.

After a fairly mild start to next week, it appears that some much colder air will try to blow in later next week with maybe a bit of snow. We'll see.

Have a great day all!

Near Record Warmth Today!

2011-11-09T09:03:00.003-05:00

Written by John DiPasquale:

Good WARM Wednesday WNY! Wow! Is probably what many of you are saying, or will be exclaiming when you step out the door for lunch, or when heading home later this afternoon/early evening. The combination of a warming southerly flow, good deal of sun & an unseasonably mild air mass will set us up to make a run at the record high of 74 this afternoon. I believe we will fall a little short of it, but either way you slice it, it's going to be very warm & great to be out & about on this 9th day of November! Get out & enjoy everyone, even if it's only for a 25 to 30 minutes during your lunch break this afternoon.

Reality will return later tonight into Thursday, as a strong cold front blows through with a few showers later this evening & overnight. Temperatures will drop into the mid to upper 40s by sunrise Thursday, which is not bad at all, but the difference will be that temperatures will not move much, & probably actually fall a bit during the afternoon after peaking around 50 early. There will be some sun, making it feel a little better & look nicer, but boy you will feel the difference come tomorrow with a brisk breeze to boot!

Late Thursday night into our Veteran's Day it will be blustery with scattered lake effect snow & rain showers around! Highs on Friday will only manage the low to mid 40s.

Veteran's Day weekend will turn nicer after a morning snow/rain shower, some sun will be with us, & temperatures with a brisk breeze will rebound to around 50 Saturday afternoon. On Sunday, gusty south-southwest winds will warm us up nicely into the low 60s or so with sun fading behind clouds later in the day. There may even be a shower or two late Sunday, but most of the day will be dry. So with that being said, Sunday looks to be the pick day of the weekend.

Early next week will likely remain very mild, before colder air tries to push in more aggressively later next week. We'll see.

Have a great day & enjoy the awesome weather WNY!

Warmth Peeks Tomorrow

2011-11-08T09:03:00.002-05:00

Written by John DiPasquale:

Well, November has been quite nice so far, but of course I'm sure many of you are wondering when is it going to end & turn wintry? At this point it does look like it will turn much colder & more seasonable, or even a litte colder than average by week's end. However, it should not last, believe it or not!

Today will feature a mostly cloudy sky this morning, but during the midday & afternoon a good deal of sun should develop from South to North. Temperatures will likely top out in the mid 60s this afternoon. Just another balmy, pleasant November day here in WNY! If you think today & yesterday were warm, which they were by November standards, a warm front pulling North of the area later tonight will instigate a south-southwesterly breeze late tonight & especially Wednesday and warm us to near record levels tomorrow! The record in Rochester for Wednesday, November 9th, is 74 set back in 1999. I don't think we will tie or break it, but I believe it's going to be close. I expect highs to be around 70, if not a bit higher, especially under a good deal of sun. Wow! Great stuff for November!

Reality will return late Wednesday night into early Thursday, as a strong cold front will sweep through with a few showers & maybe a rumble of thunder. Behind the front, it will be MUCH colder with highs Thursday in the upper 40s to around 50, which is seasonable. There will be some sun Thursday, making it feel a bit nicer, but you will definitely want to have some kind of jacket on when heading out Thursday.

On Friday, Veterans Day, it will be blustery with a few lake effect snow & rain showers in the air. Highs to end the week will only be in the low to mid 40s, with wind chills in the 30s.

The weekend looks quite good right now with a pretty good amount of wind, but it's those winds that will help us warm back into the 50s, & POSSIBLY 60s on Monday! Precipitation wise, it looks mainly dry this weekend, with some sun expected, especially Saturday. So yes, it appears like we have another pretty nice weekend on the way! Stay tuned.

Cloudier, but Still Mild Today

2011-11-07T09:02:00.002-05:00

Written by John DiPasquale:

Unseasonable warmth continues today through Wednesday, as you can see in the temperature trend graphic displayed to the left. The average highs this time of year are only in the low 50s, but clearly you can see temperatures will be averaging a good 10 to 20 degrees above average through Wednesday! The area of high pressure that provided all the sun & moderating temperatures this past weekend will continue to control the weather around here through mid week. We will have to contend with more cloud cover today through Tuesday morning compared to the weekend, but there still will be intervals of sun from time to time, especially this morning. There may even be an isolated sprinkle/shower in a few spots late today through Tuesday morning, but most of us will not see it.

After a warm & fairly windy Wednesday with a good deal of sun, a strong cold front will blow through Wednesday night/early Thursday with a few scattered showers. This will be followed by an unseasonable chill developing Thursday into Friday with a bit lake effect snow &/or rain possibly developing Thursday night into Friday. Highs will drop back into the 40s with 30 something degree wind chills! Brrr...!!!

So you would expect Thursday & Friday's chill to stick around, right?? No, actually! It appears that broad southerly winds will develop for much of the upcoming weekend & once again we will feel a nice warm up! Temperatures should climb back into the 50s Saturday, & possibly to near 60 by Sunday! I still do not see any significant bouts of winter weather (snow) over the next 7 to 10 days at least.

Have a great day WNY & enjoy the nice weather through Wednesday! We'll see if we tie/break a record high Wednesday afternoon. The record in Rochester Wednesday is 74 set back in 1999. Stay tuned!

What a Great November Stretch Ahead!

2011-11-04T09:02:00.002-04:00

Written by John DiPasquale:

FALL FEVER!!! That's right! It's going to feel more like early October than early November starting Sunday & lasting right through at least Wednesday the way it looks now! Today & tomorrow will have the early to mid November chill in the air, despite a lot of sun. Highs today will not get out of the 40s, while Saturday should be up around 50.

Once high pressure shifts a little further East of the region for Sunday into next week we will have more of a southerly breeze develop here, which will push readings back into the 60s with more brilliant sunshine! Bottom line, if you have any outdoor plans today & tomorrow you will definitely need the jacket, but come the afternoons Sunday through Wednesday all you will need is a light jacket, if even that when you are out & about.

It will turn cooler & more seasonable late next week with a bit of rain possible & it may turn just cold enough come next weekend for a bit of snow to fly, but that's still a ways out there. I would not get excited just yet snow lovers, again including myself. Stay tuned.

Cooler Builds in Tomorrow & Saturday, BUT...

2011-11-03T09:03:00.002-04:00

Written by John DiPasquale:

Cooler, but still mild through much of this Thursday. It will turn cooler during the afternoon, though, behind a cold front due to pass through around lunchtime. Highs will be between 55 & 60 before falling back into the upper 40s to around 50 by days end today with a brisk north-northeast breeze. There is also a slight risk for a shower/sprinkle late today & early tonight.

High pressure will build in later tonight into Friday from the West & Northwest & provide a good deal of sun & a chilly northerly flow. Highs on Friday, despite the sun will only reach the mid to upper 40s after starting in the low to mid 30s.

That same area of high pressure building in for Friday will make itself at home this weekend & set the stage for a very cold Friday night into early Saturday. Lows early Saturday will be in the mid 20s for most! Brrr...!!! With nothing but sun & blue sky, the temperatures will top out near 50 Saturday afternoon.

Sunday will also start off frosty, but as the morning progresses a south-southwest flow will develop in the wake of a warm front & on the backside of high pressure to the East. The combination of the warming breeze, & abundant sun once again will push readings well into the 60s Sunday afternoon! Yes, FALL, not spring, FEVER will be felt across much of the Northeast Sunday afternoon!

At this point, it actually looks like we will stay unseasonably mild in the upper 50s to possibly mid 60s right through at least next Tuesday with a cloud sun blend, but it should remain mainly dry! Whoo-Hoo!! Even, though, I am a snow lover I will take this great stretch, because we all know what's around the corner, & usually the big hammer drops after such a nice stretch this time of year. So we will see what possibly follows this great weather stretch mid to late this month...

Have a great day WNY!

Abundant November Sun Continues!

2011-11-02T12:22:00.002-04:00

Written by John DiPasquale:

Another sweet November day will be with us here in WNY thanks to high pressure just off to the East. Today's highs will range from 60 to 65 with a breeze.

Later tonight into Thursday more clouds will spill into the sky ahead & with a cold front. This front may trigger an isolated shower/sprinkle during the day Thursday, but for the most part it will be dry once again for most, if not all, tomorrow. Temperatures will cool down into the mid 50s, which is more "typical" for this time of year.

Behind the front, it will turn a bit chilly Thursday night into Friday with highs to end the week struggling to get out of the 40s, despite a good deal of sun. It will also be a bit brisk on Friday.

The weekend looks even better than it did yesterday! Although, a big chill will be felt Saturday morning with many of us waking up to lots of frost as temperatures bottom out in the 20s. We should recover to seasonable levels, low 50s, on Saturday under tons of sun, & get this...more wall to wall sun could very well occur Sunday too! High pressure will slide to the East on Sunday & on the backside of this high we should get a pretty good southerly flow of warmer air going. I believe this will result in highs hitting the 60s to round out our weekend here in WNY! Bottom line...the climatological cloudiest month of the year will not behave that way over the first several days for the most part. Enjoy the extra frosting on the cake everyone!

Nice Start to November!

2011-11-01T09:02:00.002-04:00

Written by John DiPasquale:

How sweet it is to begin November off this way! High pressure reestablishing itself just off to the East will control our weather through the start of Thursday & actually aid in warming us to above average come Wednesday.

A light southerly breeze will blow today on the backside of high pressure, which will warm us a bit more than yesterday into the mid 50s. After a slightly milder & quiet night tonight, we are in store for a breezy, nice & warmer Wednesday with highs between 60 & 65!

Unfortunately, sunshine will give way to more clouds & a spotty shower or two Thursday, as a cold front fairly quietly passes through. Highs Thursday as a result of this will hit the mid to upper 50s. Behind the front, it will turn frosty cold for Friday morning, & despite a lot of sun we will likely struggle to hit 50 or so to end the week.

High pressure providing us that sun Friday will basically control our weather throughout much of the weekend! This could very well mean wall to wall sun and highs in the 50s Saturday, but possibly 60, or even a bit better than that on Sunday with a gusty southerly breeze! There also could be a shower or two passing through later Sunday, but right now most, if not all, of the weekend is looking great, especially for the first weekend of November!

Sorry snow lovers, including myself...it does not appear that the first week to ten days of November will provide much love. We'll see.

HAPPY HALLOWEEN!!

2011-10-31T09:05:00.002-04:00

Written by John DiPasquale:

After the historic nor'easter ravaged many parts of the Northeast this past weekend, except Central & Western New York. Now on this Halloween, we will contend with ghostly veil of clouds that will thicken up as the day progresses, but we should stay dry not only today, but also this evening. There's a very slight risk for a spooky sprinkle/shower this evening for the trick or treaters, but overall it is looking quite good for all the little monsters. Thank you mother nature!

High pressure will reestablish itself late tonight into Tuesday, & stick around right through Wednesday! This will mean very nice weather to kick off the month of November! Sunshine & temperatures rising into the mid 50s Tuesday will be followed by highs around or into the low 60s with some more sun & a fairly gusty breeze, which likely will make it feel a bit cooler for our hump day.

A cold front will likely sneak through Thursday with a few showers to cool us off to more seasonable levels, but following Thursday more sun & warming temperatures will lead us into the first weekend of November which should not look or feel like it! More details to come as we get closer.

Have a great, & not too scary Halloween everyone!

HALLOWEEN WEEKEND NOR'EASTER

2011-10-28T14:40:00.003-04:00

Written By: Scott Hetsko

It is very rare indeed that a major Big City snowfall occurs in late October or even November but it appears that will be the case Saturday afternoon into Sunday. Low pressure will rapidly deepen tomorrow over Eastern Virginia and track just Southeast of the coastline. This is the perfect track for all snow EVEN in October.

Of course the elevations will collect the most snow with over 12" is likely in the Pocono's Northeast into the Catskill mountains. Even valley cities like Allentown and Scranton are expected to see a significant snowfall. Too far East for our area but don't despair snow lovers, this is preseason winter weather.

Quiet Today, but Stormy East Tomorrow

2011-10-28T09:04:00.002-04:00

Written by John DiPasquale:

Definitely better today compared to the last couple of days, but there will still be a chill in the air. Highs on this Friday will climb into the mid 40s under a good amount of sun that will fade some later in the day. The little 'L' in the pic to the left across Georgia will become a much bigger 'L' later tonight into Saturday, as the storm turns into an intense nor'easter while moving up the coast. I guess mother nature is going to be a monster to some of the northeast just before Halloween this year.

Later tonight into Saturday clouds will take over the sky as the nor'easter rapidly strengthens. At this point, it appears that most of the precipitation will stay off to the south & east, but there will probably be a little bit of rain &/or wet snow developing late Saturday morning into the afternoon from south to north. Little, if any, accumulation is expected for most of us, but there once again may be a slushy coating to an inch or two in the hills South of the Thruway and across the Finger Lakes. Of course, if the storm takes more of a westerly track than the current thinking is, it could be a different story for us here in WNY tomorrow. So stay tuned as we continue to update the forecast with the new data through today, tonight & into tomorrow.

Highs will only be in the upper 30s to low 40s on Saturday due to the clouds & a little precipitation.

Later Saturday night into Sunday high pressure will reestablish itself across the northeast & provide us with a nice, but chilly end to the weekend. Highs will range from 45 to 50 on Sunday afternoon.

Halloween still looks not too scary with a little sun & maybe a spirited sprinkle/shower late in the into trick or treat time. Highs will be in the low 50s, & it should be in the upper 40s to around 50 for the kids when they head out.

Have a great weekend everyone!

First Flakes for Many Later Today

2011-10-27T09:08:00.002-04:00

Written by John DiPasquale:

Brisk, damp & chilly this morning will likely give way to a colder, more blustery afternoon. In addition to it turning colder this afternoon, there will be a flare up of precipitation thanks to a strong upper air disturbance this afternoon moving in from the West. Any rain will mix with & probably change to all snow before ending for most. Across the high terrain South of the Thruway a slushy 1 to 2 or 3 inches is likely, while little, if any, accumulation is expected for the majority. With that being said, the first flakes of the season will fly for most before sunset. Enjoy! Or not.

The disturbance & surface storm will quickly move east & strong high pressure will slide in behind it tonight. This will clear the sky out & settle the winds later tonight into Friday morning, which will set the stage for the coldest morning we've felt since late March/early April, as temperatures bottom out in the mid 20s to near 30. The record in Rochester tomorrow morning is 24 degrees set back in 1940. We will not be too far away from that record, but it should not be broken.

The weekend still looks quite uneventful here in WNY with maybe a rain/snow shower later Saturday. Otherwise, a little bit of sun will shine Saturday at times, with more sun expected to return Sunday. Temperatures will range from the mid 40s to around 50 this weekend for highs.

Monday, Halloween, right now appears fairly benign, but there may be a couple of minor showers later in the day & around trick or treat time. Temperatures should get into the low 50s on Monday & should be somewhere between 45 & 50.

Have a great day & enjoy the snowflakes!

Chilly & Damp Today; A Little Wintry Tomorrow?

2011-10-26T09:02:00.002-04:00

Written by John DiPasquale:

Low pressure slowly drifting southeast of the area & fizzling this afternoon & evening will keep it misty, gray & chilly through the remainder of this Wednesday.

Later tonight into Thursday, another slowly intensifying storm will move along a stationary front set up across S. Pennsylvania. This will likely provide the region with a bit of rain tonight, which will turn into a mix & snow late tonight & tomorrow morning before ending as a mix & wet snow Thursday afternoon. The Greater Rochester area & most locales will see little, if any, accumulation on grassy surfaces, but a slushy inch or two may add up in the hills South of the Thruway & especially Routes 5 & 20 Thursday. So either way, it will not be a big deal, but the first flakes of the season are always exciting, ok maybe not everyone feels that way, but snow lovers & weather geeks I'm sure do. Highs on our Thursday will only reach the low 40s.

High pressure will build in tomorrow night into Friday & provide us with a frosty start to Friday with lows in the 20s to around 30, & highs on Friday, despite some sun, will only reach the mid 40s.

The weekend will remain chilly, but it looks like it will stay pretty uneventful with a couple of rain/snow showers possible Saturday afternoon & some sun returning to the area Sunday. The only caviat to this forecast is a potential nor'easter blowing up off the Eastern Seaboard late Friday night & Saturday. At this point, though, it looks like that storm will be too far to the east to have any real impacts on the weather here in WNY. Now, if something drastically changes of course we will let you know. Stay tuned.

Have a good one WNY!

LET THE SNOW TALK BEGIN

2011-10-24T16:09:00.003-04:00

Written By: Scott Hetsko
(Updated Tuesday: 3 p.m.)

No change in the thinking for Thursday's rain over to wet snowfall. Anyone above 800' in elevation has the best shot of accumulating snow Thursday afternoon and evening.

A stalled front in Pennsylvania along with a quick moving low tracking along that boundary will likely create the first snowfall in the Southern Tier and possibly Rochester Thursday afternoon and evening. Rain will change over to a period of wet snow in the afternoon and evening hours.

If anyone gets an accumulating snow it will likely be South of Routes 5 and 20 where a few slushy inches of snow are possible. As always, everything depends on the exact track of the storm.

Windy with a Bit of Rain Today

2011-10-24T09:02:00.003-04:00

Written by John DiPasquale:

This afternoon will be a bit wet with some showers/storm & a gusty breeze making the 50s feel cooler. The culprit for the showers this afternoon will be a cold front, which will move through this afternoon. In it's wake, it will turn a bit colder with temperatures fall back closer to 50 by days end.

Some clearing will take place tonight with temperatures falling back to within a few degrees of 40, as an area of high pressure briefly builds in tonight into our Tuesday. However, the drying trend will not last too long, because come Tuesday afternoon the clouds will return in advance of the next fast moving storm. This system may deliver a shower or two late Tuesday, & some rain to the area Tuesday night. A few showers will likely linger, with a brisk, raw breeze Wednesday. High temperatures tomorrow will be in the mid 50s, so fairly seasonable, but it will be closer to 50 by Wednesday.

Later Wednesday night into Thursday is when things get really interesting...The weak storm system providing us with some rain Tuesday night lingering into Wednesday will peter out, but leave it's front stalled off to the south. A storm is expected to develop along the tail end of this front down near the south end of the Mississippi River late Wednesday and move up along the front & intensify as it does so. At the same time, colder air will ooze in from the north around an area of high pressure trying to build in from Southern Canada just north of the Upper Great Lakes. So the way it looks at this time, is that we will have some cold air to work with & probably at least some moisture working in late Wednesday night through Thursday. The big questions for this storm, though, are where does this storm precisely track, how strong will it be & how much cold air will bleed in from the north??? Right now it appears that some rain will develop Wednesday night & quite possibly mix with, if not change to, some snow &/or sleet, especially over the high terrain. There may even be an accumulation over the high terrain, IF the current data comes to fruition! Either way, it looks very cold & blustery with highs within a few degrees of 40 & wind chills closer to freezing! Ouch! Stay tuned to News 8 for the latest over the next few days, as fresh data becomes available.

After Thursday possible mess, we should clear it out for the most part later Thursday night into Friday with an area of high pressure, but it will remain quite chilly with highs in the mid 40s.

Have a great start to your week everyone!

A Blustery Friday on Tap

2011-10-21T09:02:00.002-04:00

Written by John DiPasquale:

Some sun has kicked this Friday off for Rochesterians, but for the most part clouds will be the dominate feature in the sky. Wrap around moisture circulating about the slowly departing & weakening nor'easter will usher in more clouds, a few showers & areas of drizzle/mist, especially this afternoon as a weak surface trough crosses the region. The most persistent & extensive shower activity will occur around & South of Buffalo due to lake effect off Erie. Highs today will only be between 50 & 55.

A few lingering showers/drizzle will be around tonight, mainly early, before some drier air slowly but surely takes over later tonight. This should lead to a little bit of clearing tonight. Lows will drop into the low 40s. Quite a few clouds will kick off the weekend tomorrow, but we should see some breaks of sun from time to time throughout much of the day. There's a slight risk for an early shower/sprinkle tomorrow morning, but most will be dry all day Saturday. Highs on Saturday will make the low & mid 50s.

Sunday will also be quite nice, albeit a bit chilly & possibly frosty to start, with some sun & highs in the mid 50s. This is great news if you have any outdoor plans over the weekend. Just be sure to have the jacket handy, because you will definitely need it.

Some showers will return to the region Monday with a cold front, but we should dry it out on Tuesday. Highs will be solidly in the 50s both Monday & Tuesday.

Tuesday night into Wednesday a strong cold front will come through & set the stage for the coldst air of the season & YES...the chance for a little bit of the white stuff Wednesday night & beyond. Stay tuned for the latest on our chances of snow later next week.

Have a great Friday & weekend WNY!!

Windy & Turning Colder Today

2011-10-20T09:05:00.003-04:00

Written by John DiPasquale:

The nor'easter that has provided the region with wind, some rain and cooling temperatures will slowly drift by to the west of WNY tonight. After intervals of sun this morning, more in the way of clouds will return this afternoon with a few showers/drizzle developing as temperatures fall back to near 50 by days end.

Tonight into Friday, the combination of wrap around shower activity on the backside of the slowly departing nor'easter, gusty winds and chilly temperatures will make it feel quite raw. Lows tonight will dip back into the mid 40s, & reach the low & mid 50s to end the week.

This weekend will definitely shape up better thanks to high pressure building in out of the Ohio River Valley. There may be a morning shower or high elevation flurry or two Saturday, otherwise some sun will develop, especially during the afternoon. It will still be a bit brisk & chilly with highs between 50 & 55 to kick off the weekend. On Sunday, it will likely be a frosty start for many, but some sun will help us recover into the mid 50s during the afternoon.

Early next week may start off a bit unsettled with scattered showers accompanying a cold front Monday. Tuesday may be mainly quiet & a bit milder, but a strong cold front will attempt to plow through late Tuesday night into Wednesday & in it's wake we all may see the first flakes of the season! Stay tuned to News 8 & we'll keep you posted.

Plenty of Dry Time Today

2011-10-19T09:04:00.002-04:00

Written by John DiPasquale:

Other than a spotty light shower/sprinkle, there should not be much rain shower activity around through about 4 or 5, but thereafter more significant, widespread rain should develop & build in from the south & east. It will be windy through the rest of this Wednesday & right through tonight too.

Tonight there will be periods of rain, heavy at times, as the nor'easter ramps up in Ohio, which will make for a wet & mild night tonight. Late tonight/early Thursday morning, a strong cold front will come through with some rain & possibly a few stronger t-storms. After the front moves through, we will likely experience some breaks of sun developing later Thursday morning into the start of the afternoon. However, during the afternoon hours Thursday colder air, more clouds & a few showers will build back in. Highs Thursday will be around 60, but this will occur during the morning, before we feel readings drop back through the 50s during the afternoon.

Friday through Saturday will feature lots of low clouds, a brisk breeze, a few showers from time to time & unseasonably chilly temperatures, as highs will be in the low to mid 50s.

High pressure should take over come later Saturday night into Sunday resulting in some sun & possibly a frosty start to Sunday. Highs Sunday will be in the low to mid 50s.

More unsettled weather will most likely arrive to start next week, with MAYBE another nor'easter developing mid to late next week?? We'll see if it actually develops, & if so the track it takes. That will determine amounts & type of precipitation. Yes, I said type. Stay tuned.

Some Sun Fading Away Today

2011-10-18T09:03:00.002-04:00

Written by John DiPasquale:

Some sun will slowly fade away later this afternoon, as clouds move in from the south-southwest in advance of the next weather maker. The system that will begin to affect us with thicker clouds & eventually some showers come Wednesday is a complex one. One storm diving into the deep south with it's upper level trough will ultimately combine forces with another storm slowly moving through the Gulf of Mexico. These two system will evolve into intense, large nor'easter Wednesday night, which will hook to the west of our area. This will mean some developing showers Wednesday, especially during the afternoon, which will be followed by some steadier heavier rains Wednesday night & early Thursday, as the storm winds up to the west. After an occluded/cold front pushes through early Thursday, we should see a limited amount of sun for a bit before more clouds & a few showers move back in later in the day. Highs on Wednesday will be near 60, while mid 50s is all we should be able to muster out of the thermometer Thursday.

A chilly west-northwest flow will blow Thursday night into Friday with a few lake showers likely to be around. Highs on Friday will only be in the low to mid 50s, but feel colder than that due to the brisk breeze.

Thankfully this weekend is looking much better than last with a weak, kind of dirty high building in. I do not think this weekend will be great, but expect to see some sun both Saturday & Sunday with just a small chance of a shower/flurry or two Saturday, mainly in the morning. Highs will likely range from 50 to 55 this weekend with not a lot of wind, so yes it will be chilly, but should feel better than last weekend.

Right now Monday looks quiet, but Tuesday/Wednesday may feature a potent cold front. Behind the front, some of the coldest air of the season may drop in for a visit. Stay tuned.

Wind Advisory Today for Rochester

2011-10-17T09:05:00.002-04:00

Written by John DiPasquale:

A large, intense storm system to the north up near Hudson's Bay will be the primary culprit for the gusty west-southwest winds that blow today. Winds could gust between 40 & 50 mph this afternoon, which could cause some tree limbs to be knocked down possibly resulting in a few scattered power outages. For this reason, the National Weather Service has issued a wind advisory for today across much of WNY, including the Greater Rochester area.

Winds will settle once the sun sets & as the storm weakens tonight & tomorrow, it will still be a bit brisk Tuesday, but relatively calm compared to today. After experiencing a pretty nice looking day on this Monday, we will see any sun fade away Tuesday afternoon in advance of a developing storm over the Southeast. Of the two storms phasing, one will likely be of tropical nature out of the Gulf of Mexico. With that being said, this developing nor'easter will likely be a big rain & wind producer for some areas of the northeast, possibly including us later Wednesday into Thursday. The nor'easter will slowly depart Thursday & Friday, but the effects of it will remain over the region with wind, an unseasonable chill & scattered showers, some of the shower activity coming off the lake. As a matter of fact, the air could very well be cold enough to support a bit snow/mix, especially in the high terrain Thursday into Friday, but this should not be a big deal, if it even occurs at all. Highs through the week will be mainly in the mid to upper 50s, but Thursday 50 to 55 is all we will be able to muster on Friday will most likely be upper 40s to around 50!!

Thankfully, the weather should improve at least some going into the weekend, as high pressure builds in from the west & provides a return to the sun!! Right now, Sunday appears to be shaping up the best with sun & slightly milder temperatures after a POSSIBLE hard freeze Sunday. Highs should climb well into the 50s over the weekend.

Have a great day & hang onto your hats WNY!

HIGH WINDS SATURDAY

2011-10-14T14:49:00.003-04:00

Written By: Scott Hetsko

Deep low pressure just to our North will help funnel strong West-Southwest winds across Lake Erie on Saturday. The result will be wind which may gust between 50-60 mph at times in the afternoon and evening. Those who live in Western Monroe and points West will have the highest wind speeds due to their proximity to Lake Erie.

The lake "effects" us in many ways, tomorrow the winds crossing the lake won't slow much due to less friction over the water.

Nice Start, but Cloudier Afternoon

2011-10-13T11:42:00.002-04:00

Written by John DiPasquale:

After about a quarter to a half an inch of rain late yesterday through very early this morning, today will turn out to be a pretty decent day with some morning sun fading behind afternoon clouds. There may be a spotty showe or two later today, but for the most part today will be dry. Highs will be fairly mild too, as we should top out somewhere between 65 & 70. Remember the average high today is about 60.

Later tonight into Friday the chances for a few scattered showers/storm will go up with the approach & passage of a strong cold front. Temperatures will remain unseasonably mild through early Friday afternoon, but as the afternoon progresses behind the cold front readings will drop into the 50s by days end. West winds will begin to HOWL late Friday through Saturday, & just accentuate the chill felt this weekend.

Highs over the weekend will only be in the low to mid 50s, but feel more like the 40s due to the gusty winds, especially Saturday. There will also be a few scattered wind driven showers on Saturday, & then some showers developing mainly Sunday afternoon ahead of a weak cold front & area of low pressure.

Early next week may start off a bit damp early Monday, but am hopeful for some clearing during the day Monday. Highs will likely remain in the 50s.

Come Tuesday there may be a BRIEF warm up ahead of a stronger storm & it's warm & cold fronts. There will be some showers/storm accompanying the system Tuesday into Tuesday night. Behind this cold front, it actually may be cold enough for a little snow/mix to be in the air come next Wednesday &/or Thursday, as storm possibly moves up the coast?? Not too concerned about this, but just another reminder from mother nature that winter is not too far away. Stay tuned.

Have a great day WNY!

Some Showers & Cooler Today

2011-10-12T09:06:00.003-04:00

Written by John DiPasquale:

Today through Friday will definitely be cooler, but still above average by about 5 to 10 degrees. Mother nature is letting down slowly. How nice of her. LOL! Come the weekend it will be quite chilly & blustery!

The culprits for the clouds & occasional showers today through early Thursday are an upper air disturbance & a weak, disorganized storm at the surface crawling through the Carolinas currently. Highs today will be in the mid 60s & lows tonight will be in the low to mid 50s.

After a few early showers, sky should brighten & turn sunny at times with a spotty shower/storm possibly popping up during the afternoon. Highs tomorrow will be well into the 60s to low 70s, so overall Thursday will become a pretty decent day.

Later Thursday night into Friday a strong cold front will bare down on us with a scattering of showers & a few storms. Highs Friday should be well into the 60s before the front crosses the area during the afternoon. Behind the front, winds will howl with damaging wind gusts possible late Friday right into Saturday. The air will cool back into the 50s by days end Friday & will most likely not get any higher than the low & mid 50s with blustery winds this weekend.

It also looks like a couple of reinforcing shots of chilly air will work through over the weekend. One will swing through Saturday with a few showers, & the other will come across the area with some rain possible Sunday afternoon. What a difference a week makes! Last weekend we had highs around 80 with abundant sun, this weekend will be about 25 to 30 degrees colder with lots of clouds & a bit of rain at times.

Have a nice day WNY!

October Still on Vacation Today

2011-10-11T09:04:00.002-04:00

Written by John DiPasquale:

Another GREAT day today! However, our luck is about to run out unfortunately, as some shower activity is on tap for the area tomorrow. Low pressure on the satellite & radar image to the left will be the culprit for delivering some showers Wednesday. It appears the shower activity will be most numerous later tomorrow afternoon into Wednesday night. There will be a decent amount of dry time tomorrow, but you will want to have the umbrella handy. Highs tomorrow, after feeling highs well into the 70s again today, will have a tough time getting out of the low & mid 60s due to cloud cover, a bit of rain & a cool east-southeast breeze.

After a somewhat rainy Wednesday night, we should clear it out some Thursday with limited sun developing & slightly milder temperatures, as highs attempt to climb well into the 60s. So Thursday actually does not look too bad.

A strong cold front will come through Friday with some showers, increasing winds & chilly temperatures. Highs will struggle to reach 60.

The weekend will not start off great with lots of wind, a few scattered showers & unseasonably chilly temperatures Saturday. Highs will average out in the mid 50s, but feel a lot colder with those howling west-northwest winds. Sunday should clear out somewhat & turn a bit milder, but there will be a weak cold front that may trigger a couple of showers to end the weekend. Highs Sunday should be a bit milder in the low 60s, as the air warms a bit in advance of a weak cold front.

I do not see any major outbreaks of cold air in the near future, but mid to late next week may get a bit interesting. Stay tuned. It still a ways out though.

Enjoy the last really nice day of this incredible stretch everyone!

Summery Look & Feel will Continue Today

2011-10-10T09:02:00.002-04:00

Written by John DiPasquale:

High pressure that has provided us with the stellar not October like weather since mid to late last week continues to spoil us! Highs today unde2r a lot of sun will be in the mid to upper 70s. Perfect!

Unfortunately, the high will finally slowly lose it's hold on the region later Tuesday & especially Tuesday night into Wednesday, as it drifts to the east. Highs should range from about 70 to 75 Tuesday, which is still well above the average of low 60s for this time of year with fading sun Tuesday. The high ironically will guide a developing storm currently down in the southeast/near the Georgia/Carolina coast to slide north & ultimately provide clouds & some rain late tomorrow night into Wednesday. You knew this great weather could not last forever, but we will take what we can get this time of year. Highs on Wednesday with the rain will be kept back into the low to mid 60s, much more typical for mid October standards.

Beyond Wednesday, it should be a drier day Thursday with just a few scattered lingering showers & possibly even a bit of sun mixed in there. Highs Thursday should make the mid 60s.

On Friday, a cold front will slide through with a scattering of showers & some gusty winds. This will cool the temperatures back into the mid to upper 50s for the most part & the gusty breeze will make it feel even colder.

It will likely remain brisk & chilly this weekend with intervals of sun, especially Sunday. There also could be a couple of widely scattered showers passing by. Highs will probably be in the mid 50s to low 60s, which is about where we should be for the middle part of October, unlike this past weekend. Stay tuned for updates as new information becomes available to us through the week. Enjoy the incredible weather out there right now everyone!

MOTHER NATURE GETS A 10+ THIS WEEKEND!

2011-10-07T09:01:00.002-04:00

Written by John DiPasquale:

Well, the meteorologist across the northeast & WNY are bored, but that is a great thing for all of us! Large high pressure will be the main, & only weather feature we will have to affect us through at least next Tuesday/Wednesday!! A week stretch of dry, gorgeous weather does not happen to often anytime of year, let alone in October across WNY! We'll take it!

Temperatures by enlarge will be in the low to mid 70s for highs today, but should warm into the upper 70s to low 80s through much, if not all, of the holiday weekend! The exception to this will be up along & near the lakeshore, where readings due to a lake breeze developing should be kept in the 60s to around 70 through Monday. Either way, though, the weather looks great for all through at least next Tuesday.

More clouds will try to build in later Wednesday, & eventually a bit of rain will probably accompany the clouds by Wednesday night/Thursday. Temperatures will also slowly cool through next week to eventually more seasonable levels by late next week. Stay tuned.

Enjoy July in October everyone!

Nice & Seasonably Cool Today

2011-10-06T09:03:00.002-04:00

Written by John DiPasquale:

How sweet it is to under a strong, large, sprawling high pressure system, especially this time of year! High pressure essentially overhead equals the pic to the left, & this is what we should see for the next several days as the high gets comfy & parks itself to the south of the area for awhile. Highs today will be a bit cool, but fairly seasonable as we'll top out in the low 60s.

After another cold night tonight, with patchy frost possible mainly near & south of the thruway, we will warm to around 70 Friday afternoon with another mainly sunny day!

The holiday weekend will feature even warmer temperatures & wall to wall sun!! Highs Saturday & Sunday will be within a few degrees of 80! Yes, for some this will be Indian Summer, which is defined as a big warm up that follows the areas first frost of the season. So since the Greater Rochester area, especially closer to the lake will likely not have experienced it's first frost yet it will not technically be Indian Summer for Rochester, but just south, near the thruway & many points south of there it will be Indian Summer because the first frost has occurred. Now, near & along the lake, which is within a few degrees of 60, a lake breeze will develop Saturday through Monday thanks to a light flow. This will keep lakeside areas mainly in the 60s to around 70 through the holiday weekend. Either way, it will be very nice for October standards. Enjoy all the outdoor activities that WNY has to offer this time of year & be sure to at least get outside for a little bit during this incredible stretch of summer weather in autumn!

Mid to late next week more seasonable air, along with some rain could very well return. Stay tuned for details in the coming days.

Incredible Weather Stretch Ahead!

2011-10-05T09:01:00.003-04:00

Written by John DiPasquale:

Other than a backdoor cold front sneaking through this morning, the weather is going to be very uneventful over the next week! A large, strong Canadian area of high pressure will be building in & will hang out across the northeast for an extended period. This will result in lots of sun, unseasonable warmth developing, mainly away from the lakes, & chilly to cool nights through early to mid next week!!

Areas of frost seem quite likely away from the lakes, especially south of the thruway late tonight & early tomorrow, & then again late Thursday night/early Friday, as little or no wind, a dry & chilly will be in place.

The combination of the weakening, but still fairly strong early October sun, the strong high drifting to the south with a fairly weak west-southwest flow & the air significantly warming aloft will lead to a nice warming trend this holiday weekend. After being at or slightly below average today & tomorrow, temperatures should warm to near 70 Friday & well into the 70s over the long weekend! There's even a chance that we could hit 80 or so. However, if you live within a few miles of Lake Ontario this weekend your temperature will have a tough time getting out of the 60s & low 70s due to a lake breeze that should develop each day through the start of next week. Either way, though, it will be gorgeous! Enjoy everyone!

Slow Improvements Today, but...

2011-10-04T09:07:00.002-04:00

Written by John DiPasquale:

After a gloomy start to our Tuesday, the clouds are beginning to part a bit & intervals of sun are breaking through late this morning. I do expect more in the way of breaks of sun to develop later this afternoon, as drier air builds in from the west. The nor'easter that has been a thorn in our side since late Friday night will slowly lose it's grip on the area later today & especially tonight. The nor'easter will send one more feature through the region late tonight into Wednesday morning. It will be a backdoor cold front, & lucky for us the core of the cold air will stay off to the east & northeast of WNY. However, it will still cool some later Wednesday after reaching an early afternoon high between 60 & 65. We should feel the air cool back into the 50s by dinner time. Sky conditions on our Wednesday will become mostly sunny after some morning clouds with the front itself.

Wednesday night into Thursday, a strong, large, chilly area of high pressure will build in out of Canada. This will provide us with lots of starshine & the coldest night we've felt since last spring. As matter of fact, it will turn so cold late Wednesday night & early Thursday, that patchy frost will likely develop! Lows for many of us early Thursday will be in the 30s. Tons of early October sun will get us back into the low 60s Thursday afternoon, but nonetheless it will definitely feel a bit cool.

After a chilly, but mainly frost free night Thursday night, we will see a good deal of sun again Friday as the high pressure system slides just off to the south. This will instigate more of a west-southwest flow of milder air to round out the week, as highs should be up near 70!

The same area of high pressure will also control the weekend & first part of next week, & possibly beyond that! Expect a lot more sun, & unseasonably warm temperatures over the weekend & into much of next week!! Highs with sun should have no problem climbing well into the 70s to possibly even 80 come Sunday! Yes, this weekend looks great for any outdoor activities! Enjoy!

Have a great day WNY!

More Clouds than Sun & Cool

2011-10-03T12:31:00.003-04:00

Written by John DiPasquale:

Well, about 20 minutes before noon when the pic to the left was captured the Rochester area was experiencing lots of sun, but shortly thereafter more in the way of clouds developed & moved in from the east around the big upper level storm across the Mid-Atlantic states. The rest of today will feature quite a few clouds & a few intervals of sun from time to time with a spotty shower/sprinkle or two.

It will be cool with temperatures hovering within a few degrees of 60.

The big upper level storm will slowly move to the northeast off the New England coast later Tuesday into Tuesday night. This will keep us mainly cloudy for much of the rest of today through the start of our Tuesday, but later Tuesday we should see more breaks of sun develop. There will also be the threat for a few more showers & patchy drizzle tonight into the start of Tuesday before we slowly dry out later tomorrow. Highs tomorrow will be between 60 & 65.

Late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning we will experience batch of clouds with a backdoor cold front moving through. Behind the front, it will be a bit brisk & a little cooler than average with increasing sun heading through Wednesday afternoon. Highs Wednesday will be around 60.

A chilly Canadian high will build in Wednesday night into Thursday & set the stage for a cold, probably frosty for many, start to our Thursday. Lows early Thursday will likely range from the upper 20s to mid 30s! Lots of sun will help us recover into the low 60s during Thursday afternoon, though.

After another chilly night Thursday, a warm front will most likely cross the area Friday with some clouds. Highs Friday with some sun should range from about 65 to 70, so definitely a milder day!

Right now the upcoming weekend looks FABULOUS!! High pressure should remain in control of our weather as it reestablishes itself to the south. This will ensure of a lot more sun & unseasonably warm temperatures through the weekend & probably into next week too!! Highs over the weekend could very well be well into the 70s to MAYBE around 80 by Sunday!!! Stay tuned to News 8 throughout the week for updates.

NASTY WIND, WET AT TIMES THIS WEEKEND

2011-09-30T15:10:00.003-04:00

Written By: Scott Hetsko

Cooler air and strong winds will combine to make for a brisk start to October for us this weekend. While there is the risk for showers Saturday, most of the day won't be too wet. A period of steady rain is expected beginning Saturday night and continuing Sunday morning.

Strong Northeast winds will add to the chill, gusting over 30 mph at times. Some slushy wet snow is possible in the Southwest part of the state Sunday morning.

Blustery, Nasty Start to October!

2011-09-30T12:24:00.002-04:00

Written by John DiPasquale:

Intervals of sun fading behind more clouds later this afternoon in advance of a slow moving, strong cold front that will cross the area late tonight/early Saturday with some showers. If you are heading out to football/soccer games or haunted hayrides there could be a spotty shower or two, but it should be pretty dry. My advice if you are heading out this evening would be to have the umbrella handy in case a shower or two passes through, as there will likely be a few around.

The first couple of days of October this weekend will be controlled by a nor'easter that will develop tomorrow near NYC. Between strong high pressure across the Central Great Lakes & the nor'easter just east of us, winds will howl out of the north which will accentuate the chill & make it feel more like the 30s & 40s, despite highs in the low 50s Saturday & Sunday. The heaviest rains will likely fall Saturday night into Sunday morning, as the nor'easter inches to the west, closer to WNY. Rains will likely slowly taper some later Sunday & may even mix with a bit of snow/mix across the highest terrain south of the thruway Saturday night & Sunday!

Unfortunately, this storm will be a slow mover at the surface & aloft, keeping us a bit unsettled Monday before finally clearing out more significantly & warming the temperatures to more seasonable levels come Tuesday afternoon. Beyond Tuesday, at this time, looks great with sun & at or above average temperatures possibly developing! By the way, Wednesday &/or Thursday morning may feature the first frost for many. Stay tuned.

Try to stay warm & dry this weekend! Have a great one WNY!

Seasonable Today, but Not this Weekend

2011-09-29T09:03:00.005-04:00

Written by John DiPasquale:

After almost an inch & a half of rain from Tuesday evening through early this morning in Rochester, we will likely have to contend with a few more showers & storms today. A couple of the storms that do develop this afternoon may pack a punch with torrential rains, some hail & wind. The culprit for the showers & storms today will be that upper level storm that was sitting out near Chicago for almost a week! This storm will cross the area later today & early tonight. Once it passes, we will see another round of a few showers/storm late tonight/early Friday with a weak cold front. After a few early showers around to start our Friday, we should get some breaks of sun out for a little while later tomorrow morning into the early afternoon before a lot more clouds roll in during the afternoon. Those clouds will be in advance of a strong cold front due to sneak through Friday night with a few showers possible late Friday & into Friday night.

On Saturday, an area of low pressure, nor'easter, will likely take shape near NYC & pivot into Eastern NY/Western New England Saturday night into Sunday. This will ensure us of a blustery, raw weekend with highs in the upper 40s to around 50! Wind chills will reside in the 30s to low 40s, & believe it or not but there's a distinct chance for some ice pellets/graupel to mix in with the showers, especially over the high terrain south of the thruway. Sorry everyone, but this is just mother nature's reminder to us all that even though we are just starting October this weekend, ole man winter is just right around the corner.

Come Monday, the weather will get better with some sun & more seasonable temperatures returning. Next Tuesday through Thursday's weather is hinging on a backdoor cold front. If it gets through, which is what a lot of our data is now suggesting will happen we will turn pretty chilly again during the period. However, if the front does not make it through then sun & unseasonable warmth will be with us. Stay tuned to News 8 for the latest through the weekend.

Have a great day everyone!

More Rain, Possibly Heavy, on Tap

2011-09-28T09:05:00.003-04:00

Written by John DiPasquale:

After a lull for many of us during much of this morning, more numerous showers & a few storms will likely build back in from the south during the afternoon along the cold/stationary front hanging out in WNY. Unfortunately, this boundary will act as a focal point for more periods of rain & a few storms with some downpours right into tonight. At this time, though, it appears the heaviest rains tonight will fall just off to the east of Rochester across the Finger Lakes & CNY where 1 to 2 or 3 inches may accumulate. These amounts of rain in such a short time would most likely cause some flooding & that's why the National Weather Service has issued a Flash Flood Watch through Thursday morning for Yates & Seneca counties & points to the south & east for the potential of some flash flooding. Now, we will probably see some heavier rains at times here in Rochester too later today & tonight, but if this band of heaviest rains sets up 30 to 40 miles further west we could pick up some localized flooding here in the Greater Rochester area. We will keep you abreast. By the way, highs on this Wednesday will remain milder than average, as we will reach the low & mid 70s. Lows tonight will be near 60 with some fog developing too.

Come late tonight into Thursday morning we should experience a lull in the precipitation with maybe even some breaks of sun tomorrow morning. However, during the afternoon Thursday, the upper level storm that has been camped out near Chicago over the last almost week will finally be pushed in which should trigger some additional showers & storms, & a few of these storms may become strong to severe. Highs Thursday will be a bit cooler & more seasonable, as we will peak in the upper 60s to around 70.

Late Thursday night into early Friday the first of two strong cold fronts will pass through with a few scattered showers/storm. Friday's highs, despite some limited sun, will only hit the low 60s with a gusty breeze developing.

The next, reinforcing cold front will blow through Friday night/early Saturday with a few more showers/storm. In the wake of this front, it will be nasty with some lake showers, a blustery, gusty wind & highs struggling to climb out of the 40s! As a matter of fact, I would not be surprised to see some ice pellets & even occasional wet snow flakes mixing in with the showers Saturday, especially in the hills south of the thruway. Either way, this will not be a big deal, but just a reminder that the next season is winter. Thankfully, while still chilly & brisk, Sunday will be nicer with some sun returning & highs should make it well into the 50s.

Next week COULD feature some fantastic fall weather with more sun & unseasonably warm temperatures possibly building back into the northeast. Stay tuned.

Have a great day everyone!

Some Rain Moving In

2011-09-27T09:04:00.002-04:00

Written by John DiPasquale:

A weakening cold front is pushing into the area & producing clouds & some rain this afternoon, & it could become heavy at times late today & tonight. Some of the area, possibly including the Greater Rochester area may receive up to as much as two inches of rain between noon today, Tuesday, & 7am Wednesday! This would likely result in some localized urban, poor drainage & small stream flooding tonight & early tomorrow. Thankfully, the heavier rain potential should go away in time for much of the morning commute Wednesday with just a scattering of lighter showers & drizzle/mist around to begin tomorrow. The weakening cold front, though, will likely stall overhead for our Wednesday which will keep a few showers/storm around through our hump day. Temperatures will remain mild on Wednesday as highs will be in the low to mid 70s, similar to what we will feel today.

The upper level storm that has been plaguing the Upper Midwest, Chicago area since last Thursday will finally get pushed along into our region later Wednesday night into Thursday. This will produce more seasonable temperatures, 60s to around 70 & another round of some rain/storm during the aformentioned time frame.

A strong cold front & it's strong associated upper level trough, the culprit for pushing the lost upper level storm along will come crashing through Friday with a few showers & wind. Temperatures will tumble back into the upper 50s to around 60 for highs to end the week, but will likely struggle to hit the low & mid 50s Saturday with lots of wind & a few lake showers. Ughh!! I know. I hate to even state this, but there's even a CHANCE for a few ice pellets/flakes to mix in with the lake shower activity in the high terrain south of the thruway later Saturday into Saturday night! Here's the good news, though, Sunday the weather will improve some. After a cold, possibly frosty for some, start we should recover to around 60 with the help of a decent amount of sun. It will get even warmer early next week with more sunshine!

Summery Today!

2011-09-26T09:06:00.002-04:00

Written by John DiPasquale:

Summer returned over the weekend, despite the official start of autumn early Friday. Highs on our Sunday were near 80 with some humidity to boot, and it appears that the summer conditions will stick around especially today, but even linger into tomorrow! Highs today will be around 80, & mid to upper 70s will be felt tomorrow. So warm temperature lovers are going to love today. Thankfully, the upper level storm out near Chicago has been stationary since last Thursday/Friday, which allowed us to endure a mainly dry, pleasant weekend. Unfortunately, the storm, the 'L', with it's cold front in the above picture will inch closer to the area over the next 24 to 48 hours. This is result in an increased chance of scattered showers & storms later Tuesday into Wednesday. So we should be mainly rain free through the start of Tuesday, before a scattering showers & storms develops & begins to cool us off Tuesday, & even more so Wednesday & Thurday.

The first of two cold fronts will move through late Tuesday night into Wednesday & cool the area off to more seasonable levels, closer to 70.

Thursday will likely feature some more showers & even cooler readings, as highs will be in the upper 60s to around 70 with yet another round of showers possible. There will likely also be some wind on Thurday.

Thursday night into Friday morning, one of, if not the strongest, cold front since Spring will sweep through with a few showers/storm. Behind the front, there likely will be a few lake showers from time to time developing Friday & lasting right into the weekend, as the air turns quite cold. As a matter a fact, it MAY become cold enough to support some of the first flakes of the season for some, especially for those who live in the higher terrain south of the thruway Saturday into early Sunday! This will NOT be a big deal, but it will serve as mother nature's reminder to all that we will be entering October this upcoming weekend & that the other season that follows this one we just entered is not too far away. Now, the weekend is still about 5 days away, so a lot can change between now & then, but it will be interesting to see if this real chilly air mass verifies come Friday & especially this weekend. Stay tuned!

A Little Bit of Rainfall on the Way

2011-09-23T09:05:00.003-04:00

Written by John DiPasquale:

Welcome to fall everyone! Fall officially arrived at 5:04 this morning across the Northern Hemisphere. The first day of fall will be not too bad with some sun this morning fading away for the afternoon, as moisture surges north ahead of a big, intense upper level storm near Chicago. There will also be a weak area of low pressure at the surface that will track to the west of us late today & tonight across Lake Erie. Yes, we should at least pick up a scattering of showers/storm developing this afternoon, with a few lingering tonight. The lion share of the rain, though, should end up out near Buffalo & Niagra Falls, & in portions of Central & Eastern New York where they don't need it. Some of the newest data is now suggesting that there's the potential of drier air building in later in the day Saturday & especially Saturday night into Sunday. Some of the data is suggesting that the upper level storm near Chicago currently could very well retrograde a bit to the south & west further away from us. If this were to play out, we would contend with a few spotty showers/storm Saturday, but not much rain at all &, if your lucky, there MAY be some brightening or even a ray or two of sun poking through the clouds to end our Saturday. Partial clearing will try to occur later tomorrow night with areas of fog, & come Sunday it would become pretty nice after a slow start with some sun developing & just a couple of spotty showers/storm popping up for the afternoon. Highs over the weekend will likely be close to 70 Saturday & mid 70s on Sunday.

Next week will probably start off mild with a few scattered showers/storm around, but will likely turn much cooler by Tuesday &/or Wednesday with the upper level storm finally beginning to move overhead & weakening. By next Thursday/Friday we should be rid of stubborn, lost storm which should lead to some better weather to finish out September.

Have a great Friday & first weekend of autumn WNY!

Not a Bad Last Day of Summer

2011-09-22T09:03:00.003-04:00

Written by John DiPasquale:

Good Thursday everyone! Today will turn out to be a fairly nice day with quite a few clouds around during the morning, along with a couple of spotty showers/sprinkles. However, more sunshine should develop as we move into the midday & afternoon, as somewhat drier air moves in behind a weakening cold front that's slowly sliding to the east into CNY now. This front will likely end up stalling out near Eastern New York/East Coast tonight into Friday. This will set the stage for some potentially significant rains off to the east, where they do not need it Friday & into parts of the weekend & early next week. For us here in WNY, the big, intense upper level low parked to the west across the Upper Midwest will send occasional surges of moisture our way from the south & southwest right through at least next Tuesday/Wednesday. This will likely result in a few showers/storm popping up & drifting through from time to time starting Friday afternoon & lasting through next Wednesday! The good news about this unfortunate, stagnate pattern...is that there will probably be NO WASHOUT on any one day through the start of next week! Keep your fingers crossed that this holds. Highs tomorrow through next Monday/Tuesday will most likely range from about the upper 60s to the mid 70s. That is a bit above average, which is in the upper 60s for this time of year in WNY.

Finally Tuesday into Wednesday, it appears the cut-off upper level storm to the west will be picked up by the upper level winds (jet stream), which may cause it to become a bit more unsettled later Tuesday into Wednesday. Beyond next Wednesday, long range data is suggesting some nicer weather will build in with high pressure for the end of September & start of October! We will see. Stay tuned.

By the way, as the picture above displays...fall begins when the sun's rays are shinning directly over the Equator & heading south. This will happen at 5:04AM tomorrow, Friday, morning. Enjoy the last day of summer officially everyone!

Pretty Nice Today

2011-09-21T09:03:00.004-04:00

Written by John DiPasquale:

A blend of clouds & sun will be with us for the majority of our Wednesday with more in the way of clouds to finish the day. There will likely be a few widely scattered showers/storm popping up late in the day today, as weak disturbance moves through. Later tonight into Thursday morning will most likely feature more numerous showers/storm with the approach & crossing of a weakening cold front. Behind the front, we should turn mainly dry for our Thursday afternoon with breaks of sun possible. After hitting the mid to high 70s this afternoon, Thursday's highs will dip back into the low to mid 70s.

Then a big, healthy upper level low will slowly inch closer to the region, but remain just to the south & west & act as a moisture pump. This will likely cause periods of rain to develop Friday into Saturday. High temperatures for the first two days of fall will be within a couple of degrees of 70.

By Sunday, we are hopeful that the upper level low will wrap itself up & cut off the southerly flow of moisture at least temporarily. Highs should make the low 70s with a bit of sun possible. Signs are that early next week will become kind of unsettled again as the upper level storm slides overhead or close to it anyways. This will likely set the stage for occasional showers & cooler temperatures. Stay tuned to News 8 for the latest.

Have a great day WNY!

Clouds to Sun Today!

2011-09-20T09:33:00.004-04:00

Written by John DiPasquale:

Low clouds are slow to depart on this Tuesday, but confident they will break up & slide east & lead to some nice sun this afternoon. Temperatures will warm into the low 70s with the help of the sun later today.

High pressure providing us with the clearing sky this afternoon will keep us quiet through the first part of Wednesday, before more clouds develop & the possibility of a spotty shower/storm or two arrives tomorrow afternoon in advance of a weakening cold front. It appears showers & a couple of storms will become more numerous Wednesday night & taper off Thursday morning, as the weak cold front sneaks through & falls apart just to the east. There will likely be some sun tomorrow & intervals of sun that should develop Thursday after a gloomy start. Tomorrow will likely be the warmest day, with highs warming well into the 70s, while low to mid 70s will be felt the last official day of Summer Thursday.

The beginning of Fall at 5:04am Friday will probably start off mainly quiet, but somewhat unsettled with some showers/storm developing. Temperatures will peak in the upper 60s to around 70.

The storm system repsonsible for the rains Friday will shift to the northeast & we should be left with intervals of sun both Saturday & Sunday with just a passing pop up shower or two possible through the weekend. Highs are expected to be in the low 70s or so for the first weekend of Autumn, which is not bad. An upper level storm will be off to the west & should start to inch closer Sunday & especially Monday, which will ultimately lead to some rain. We'll see how this times out. Stay tuned to News 8 through the rest of the week for the latest.

AM Sun to More PM Clouds

2011-09-19T09:02:00.003-04:00

Written by John DiPasquale:

Lots of sun, as displayed on the Skyeye shot to the left, started our day & week off on the right foot. Unfortunately, the end of the day will not look nearly as nice due to the approach of a weakening cold front from the west. Clouds will increase & cause the sun to fade away during the midday & afternoon. By days end, there could be a couple of showers/sprinkles in the area, but most of this Monday will be dry. It will also become windy & a bit milder compared to this past weekend, as highs will be in the upper 60s to around 70.

Later this evening & overnight we will have some rain & possibly an embedded t-storm drift through. The weak cold front will sneak through during the early to mid morning before completely falling apart during the day Tuesday just off to our east. After a gloomy, damp start to tomorrow, we should clear it out some with breaks of sun developing for the afternoon. Highs tomorrow should make the low 70s with the help of some sun later in the day.

Tuesday night into Wednesday morning should be quiet & seasonable, but during the afternoon there is a possibility of a couple spotty showers/storm popping up. Wednesday looks to be the warmest day of the week with highs likely hitting the mid to upper 70s.

The next weather maker, a cold front, will probably affect us Thursday with a few showers/storm, & behind it temperatures will cool out of the 70s & back into the 60s for highs Friday into the much of the upcoming weekend. Of course, Autumn begins early Friday at 5:04AM so I guess it will be fitting for us to be cooling back into the 60s. There likely will be a few scattered showers & wind around Friday, but still a lot up in the air for the weekend. At this point, it appears that there will be a lot of dry time this weekend, but there may be a passing shower or two, especially Sunday. Stay tuned through the week for the latest regarding the end of Summer & start of Autumn forecast.

Have a great start to the week all!

October Feel Today; September Returns Sunday!

2011-09-16T11:35:00.002-04:00

Written by John DiPasquale:

Chilly west-northwest flow over the warmer waters of Lake Ontario produced some showers late last night into early this morning, but now all we are left with, as I type late Friday morning, are some lake clouds. Eventually, the dry air to the west in the lower levels of the atmosphere associated with a strong high pressure system will snuff them out later this afternoon, but as that's happening some cirrus clouds will begin to creep in from the west. Either way, I do believe we will see more sun evolve as the afternoon progresses. Temperatures will climb no higher than the upper 50s to around 60, which is more than 10 degrees below average!

An upper air disturbance creating the high & mid level clouds across the lower Great Lakes currently will move through here later tonight & Saturday. This will result in a partly to mostly cloudy sky developing tonight & a filtered sun for much of Saturday. However, what the clouds will do later tonight & early Saturday is protect most from frost, with the only exception possibly being near Dansville to the Southern Tier, but even that threat is minimal due to the clouds expected to roll in tonight. Lows tonight will be in the low 40s for the Rochester area, while 35 to 40 should do it down south, & mid to upper 40s is where areas near the warmer lakes will bottom out.

Your last official weekend of summer is looking very nice with chilly starts, but milder afternoons with a sun cloud blend tomorrow & a lot of sun & blue sky Sunday! Temperatures will warm into the low & mid 60s Saturday, while 65 to 70 will be the high to end the weekend, which is great news for the Rochester Marathon, the Bills opener, apple & pumpkin picking, Green Topia, etc...Enjoy WNY!!

The clouds will likely increase later Monday with a few showers/storm possible by days end. It will likely remain a bit unsettled at times through mid next week with temperatures topping out in the low to mid 70s Monday through Wednesday.

Have a great Friday & weekend everyone!

Late October Feel Today

2011-09-15T11:22:00.002-04:00

Written by John DiPasquale:

The coldest air mass since mid May is blowing in on an increasing north northwest wind, which will not only bring some lake clouds & a few scattered showers, but also keep temperatures from climbing any higher than the mid to upper 50s! A strong cold front moved through late last night/early this morning with some rain. The only nice thing about this afternoon will be that we should squeeze some breaks of sun out, but that's about it.

After some more lake clouds & a passing shower or two off the lake tonight, it will turn nicer looking on our Friday, as a strong Canadian high builds in from the west. Highs on Friday will still struggle to hit the upper 50s to around 60, with a bit of a brisk breeze out of the northwest, but it will definitely be better than our Thursday.

Friday night into Saturday, the area of high pressure will crest overhead setting us up for a cold start to the weekend. As a matter of fact, it should turn cold enough in outlying areas away from the lakes, especially in the sheltered valleys south of the thruway, that some frost could very well develop late Friday night & early Saturday. Lows will be in the mid 30s to around 40 for most, but mid 40s to near 50 close to the lakes. If you have tender plants & live in a normally colder spot of WNY, you will probably want to bring the vegetation in Friday evening.

After the cold start Saturday, the temperatures should moderate into the low & mid 60s with a good deal of sun, while 65 to 70 will likely do it for Sunday with nothing but sun! This is great news for all Bills fans heading to the game!

Early next week should start off nice with sun & temperatures warming into the low & mid 70s. There may be a shower/storm late in the day Monday, but most of the day looks nice. Next Tuesday & Wednesday as of now look pretty uneventful with a cloud sun blend & a passing shower or two possible. Highs should remain in the low to mid 70s.

Have a nice day WNY!