What happens next week?

There's been a lot of buzz recently about another potential winter storm for next week but at this point, it's still WAY too soon to say how this system will impact western New York.

Right now, the energy that will ultimately spawn this developing area of low pressure is still sitting out over the Pacific Ocean so forecast models are having a really tough time figuring out what to do. Once this upper level energy moves onshore, models will have more data to work with and hopefully they will start to come into some agreement.

A few days ago, it looked as though this potential storm would move along the coast bringing another round of snow but over the past day or so, most models have shifted the track significantly further west. A further west track would draw in much milder air and bring a rain/snow mix to much of western New York with little accumulation.

Right now, our forecast is leaning toward a warmer system with less potential for a major snow event. That said, it's still several days out and a lot can change between now and then. Keep checking back with us for updates.

Written By: Meteorologist Matt Jones

Final Post Before The Storm

WRITTEN BY:  SCOTT HETSKO

Looks like the area will indeed see a heavy, wet snow beginning overnight.  The heaviest snow will fall through the morning hours with snow fall rates of 1-2" per hour from Rochester and areas West.

It will be a very sharp line between 12" of snow and 4" from Ontario County East.  I remain worried about a few hours of mixing lowering snowfall totals in central Monroe County but there's nothing that we can do but wait and see.  The exact location of the deformation zone will be where the most snow occurs.  Right now I think that sets up near Churchville extending Southwest into NE Wyoming County.  It's going to be a fun one!

The next one is mostly snow

WRITTEN BY:  SCOTT HETSKO

Why did I come back in Winter?!  A storm system will develop quickly along the base of an upper level trough Monday evening.  Initially snow will break out in response to warmer air trying to move in aloft.  The heaviest snow looks to fall overnight into the first part of Tuesday.  Below you can see the center of low pressure close to Binghamton at 1 p.m. Tuesday afternoon.

More agreement is coming into place that our thermal profile will stay below freezing throughout the storm duration.  As you can see from the Skew-T, notice how the temperature (RED) and dewpoint (GREEN) lines stay behind the 0 degree isotherm vertically.  This would indicate an all snow scenario.

As I mentioned earlier, the heaviest snow will likely fall between 6am and 2pm Tuesday.  Below is a forecast radar composite for Tuesday morning.  The ride to work will be a snowy one.  Snowfall accumulations will be plowable for many (6+")   Further East and Southeast in the Finger Lakes, a wintry mix will hold down the snow totals.  We'll have specific snow forecast numbers on News 8 tomorrow evening.

Coldest Air of the Season Looms

After a relatively mild weekend, the large scale weather pattern will undergo some big changes across the country this week.

A large ridge of high pressure will build over the west while at the same time, a deep trough of low pressure will form over the Northeast. This will allow cold air that is currently building in northern Canada to spill south into our region by the second half of the week.

The first surge of Arctic air will arrive Wednesday night into Thursday with highs Thursday struggling to climb into the mid teens. This cold air combined with a northwest wind direction will help generate lake effect snow squalls along the south shore of Lake Ontario, including much of Monroe county. It's still much too soon to say how much snow we'll see but several inches of fluff will be possible.

The second surge of Arctic air will plunge south by the weekend bringing the coldest temperatures we've seen in about a year. Several reliable forecast models we use are showing some truly bitter air arriving.

The GFS model is showing highs not even climbing above zero by Saturday afternoon!

The ECMWF model shows highs barely climbing into the single digits.

Factor in the wind and wind chills will plummet 10 to 20 below zero at times. Bottom Line: this will probably be the coldest stretch of weather this winter and we'll likely see several inches of snow piling up from Wednesday through the weekend. 

Stay tuned for more updates!

Written By: Meteorologist Matt Jones

The Return (or, Arrival) of Winter

Written by: Stacey Pensgen

After the warmest and least snowy December on record in Rochester, January behaved a little more like January should. We slowly added nearly 2 feet of snow for the month (22.5" to be exact), and averaged a few degrees above average. The first 48-72 hours of February will be quite mild with likely record warmth on Wednesday as a deep storm system tracks once again off to our west. This will be the trigger to a more winter-like pattern heading into early February.

After Wednesday, temperatures will crash to more seasonable levels (lower to mid 30s) for the rest of this week and into the weekend, while it's looking more likely that a mid-late winter cold snap will return into the middle of February.

At this point, we don't see any big snow events for us, so we will still be lacking that, but there are a few lows on the horizon that both long-range GFS and Euro are latching onto. So, hang onto your hats this week, and then hang onto your winter jackets, at least for a little while longer.