Written by: Brian Neudorff
On this blog the last few days there has been a lot of talk about the cold and possible cold arriving after Thanksgiving. But I thought it would be a good idea to show everyone where the cold air currently was and how cold it currently is. Here is a temperature plot of Canada this morning. As you can see you go northwest of Hudson Bay and temperatures are -22 Fahrenheit.
There is a lot of time between now and the end of next week but both the GFS and EURO models are hinting at colder air coming in over the lakes and western New York Friday and Saturday after Thanksgiving. The images below are for Friday afternoon from both the GFS ad EURO computer models and the 850 temperatures. They have 850mb temperatures between -10 & -15 that would definitely be enough for Lake Effect. Of course there is more to it than just the cold air but if this hold true then it could be the nice first snow many were hoping for.
At this point time is our enemy and as the cold air starts to move south a lot of moderation can take place and the cold air forecasted today can end up being a lot warmer than it is being advertised today.
I checked the average temperature for Baker Lake, NU which was reporting -22F on your map, and their AVERAGE LOW for this date is -12F. So this cold airmass is pretty impressive for even Northern Canada's standards, just to put it into perspective.
ReplyDeleteAlso, good point on the moderation. Models do tend to go overboard early in the season by not moderating the cold airmasses sufficiently in their forecasts as they cross into the mid lattitudes. One thing that might be going for us this time, however (if you like the cold), is that the snow cover across Canada has increased quite significantly, and is now quite vast across the country. That may help keep the cold stronger a little longer as it heads south across Canada compared to if there was a lot of bare ground still. So i'd say at least -10C at 850 seems reasonable at the core of the coldest air over our region.
just remember we also need at least a couple days of really cold air so that the ground temperatures will drop so that snow can accumulate on it easily
ReplyDeleteThe latest 12z of the GFS shows -10C at 850 reaching our area by the evening of Thanksgiving, with a moist NW flow following it. I love snow, but i'm getting concerned for those folks that might have to drive home late on Thanksgiving or early Friday (if today's solution were to pan out). I should also point out that this time frame I mentioned now falls within the 180 hr mark of the GFS, which is higher resolution, and generally more accurate / reliable. Also, it appears that once this Arctic air arrives, we'll have reinforcing shots thereafter, which will "activate" the lakes each time as the short waves cross.
ReplyDeleteScott you should really show those Northern Canada temperatures on your evening weather-cast:
ReplyDeletePer wunderground.com, it is currently -40F at a town in Northern Canada called Isachsen. Is that normal??? Ice age Canada!
Ummmm, am I misinterpreting this, or is the 12z run of the EURO now showing a massive, blockbuster blizzard for our area on Thanksgiving?
ReplyDeleteHoly cow, you werent kidding. Scott what does this mean if it happens??
ReplyDeleteYep you're misinterpreting the 12Z EURO big time, no offense intended! The 12Z EURO has a mid week powerful low tracking will West of Rochester with a potential for heavy snow and wind over Minnesota or the Dakota's. The GFS has the system passing SOUTH over Maryland on Thanksgiving day. Bottom line as we say every time is that it is simply TOO early to be even close to what will happen next week.
ReplyDeleteFor certain it will become much colder behind the storm over next weekend. This would likely result in lake effect snows.
No offense taken, Scott. I know the very bare minimum basics of this stuff. The professional interpretation is where you and Brian and Bob come in. I'm just looking forward to some colder weather and snow flakes on a more regular basis. Then i'll be happy :)
ReplyDeleteGood I don't want to offend anyone and it's very hard to sense tone in this type of medium!
ReplyDeletewell could that storm that the GFS show actually come across PA and give us a major snow storm?
ReplyDeleteSure it can but no long term models are exactly right this far out. Given the climatology of La Nina, I would favor a great lakes track rather than Southeast.
ReplyDeleteOops! I meant *NOT* right this far out.
ReplyDeleteGetting some heavy sleet tonight in Ontario, NY... driveway and sidewalks ice covered
ReplyDeleteHad two bursts of sleet / graupel just east of the Rochester city line in Brighton.
ReplyDeletewoke up to a nice little sugar coating of snow on the car. I'd say we picked up about a tenth of an inch of graupel / snow mix overnight.
ReplyDeleteThe 12z GFS has eased up on the cold just a bit for the period following thanksgiving. It still seems to have us cold enough to snow, but I just don't see us solidly in the -10 or colder area for as long as previous days runs indicated. It may be that the GFS is simply getting more precise as we get closer. In any case, whether it's -9 or -13, we should be solidly cold enough for snow Friday into the weekend.
Scott,
ReplyDeleteI was wondering if you could tell me the best way / surface to measure snow. How do the professionals measure it?
I should correct myself, that question is also to Brian or Bob - whoever wants to answer. I Don't mean to leave the other meteorologists out.
ReplyDeleteTo the person asking about measuring snow - I could sit here and write a huge comment on it but this is a great write up already done for me by the NWS http://www.erh.noaa.gov/gyx/measuring_snow.htm if you have any more questions feel free to ask. -Brian
ReplyDeleteThanks Brian! I never considered using a snow board for new snow on top of old snow. I would imaging snow would stick easier on a wood board too, as it always seems to be the base of trees and wooden fences that snow sticks first. I wonder why that is. Anyway, I just might have to search around the garage for some plywood :)
ReplyDeletethanks again!
Temperature in Isachsen currently: -43F
ReplyDeleteTemperature in Eureka currently : -42F
I can't ever recall seeing this caliber cold up there this early in the season!
To the commenter about snow boards, I heard that wooden boards are best, and you should paint them white to ensure that the least amount of snow melts on contanct. Not sure if the painting white thing really makes a big difference, but it's said to.
ReplyDelete