There has been some questions on the blog about how snow varies annually across our region. Here's the average snowfall over the past 30 years in Western New York.
It's cool how there's a little island of heavier snow across northern Steuben county. I have family in Prattsburg (northern steuben co.). They get lots of snow down there. It probably also helps that they live on top of a big hill as well. Beautiful country down there, but i'd rather drive on nice flat 390 during icy conditions rather than some of the terrifying, curvy, steep roads they have down there.
It looks like yet another big snowstorm for the upper midwest during thanksgiving week that will pass us way to our west. We will be left with the cold front that will cool us down with scattered lake effect for some.
There's no cold air already in place yet, so you would expect the storms to tend to ride up to our north and west to get up and over the milder air over the east. That's quite typical early in the season, so don't worry. Once we start to get more cold air to work into our area, and stick around for awhile, the storm track will start to shift more to the south and east. Fact is, the indices have to work together ideally for us, and they just haven't lined up yet. It's going to be hard to get very cold with a strongly negative PNA that is forecasted in the next two weeks, even though the NAO may go more negative. We need that PNA to be positive to allow more cold air to be pumped down the western ridge and pour into the east. It looks like after the two week point, the PNA will start to go back toward neutral, and maybe even positive by early December if the projected trend continues beyond the indices range. That would be a good thing for us, as long as the OA and NAO stay negative. But if they, too, trend neutral or positive as the PNA also goes positive, we'll still be blocked from any real, true Arctic air, and be left with more of a pseudo-zonal flow. My thinking is that the PNA will trend neutral by the end of November and eventually positive by the first week of December. At that point, the NOA and AO will be weakly to moderately negative. That will mean our first true Arctic outbreak by early December. If I had to put a day on it, i'd say look out for major cold and snow by December 6th. Now with the said, the GFS has been suggesting quite a trough digging out into the east by around thanksgiving or just beyond, with a moist W shifting to NW flow for several days and possibly substantial LES during the final few days of the month. I think the GFS is jumping the gun again for one main reason - No strong positive PNA to support it (yet). The first or second week of Dec is a different story, however, as I noted.
The white shaded area is under 80" annually but many in those towns get between 40-60" on average. Average is a 30 year look so obviously that number is different year to year. Niagara county isn't downwind of a large water source. Notice how the heaviest amounts of snow are East of both Lakes. Single band lake snow usually produces the largest lake snows. Monroe County can get either single or multiband lake effect
That's why I LOVE Monroe county. We get just the right amount of snow. I recall someone asking if Buffalo is snowier than Rochester. Interestingly enough, KROC averages more snow than KBUF over the last 30 years. And we beat Buffalo in seasonal snow the majority of the time. Yes, Buffalo gets their three feet in 24-hr snows occasionally, but we get the better nor-easters and our lake doesn't freeze so we can get some good lake effect / enhancement right through March. Rochester is an awesome snow city, That's just my opinion.
Remember too that Monroe County/Rochester can get some BLOCKBUSTER lake enhanced snowstorms. March 1999 comes to mind when a Noreaster combined with lake enhancement dumped 40" of snow in 48 hours!
The GFS model continues to show some arctic air with 850 mb temps down to -12 to -15 range for us just after Thanksgiving.. that would produce some good lake effect snow for some
Yep, I just saw that myself. And I tell you what, even -10C crossing a lake that is around +10 would create some intense instability. The good thing is, it looks like there will be a moist flow crossing the lakes at the same time with the polar vortex setting up shop around Hudson Bay (the Arctic Oscillation will be plunging). That would mean "spokes" of short waves spiraling down from the North and West every day or so. Somebody might be digging out before the month is over. But by the looks of it, MOST will have to at least brush their cars off from a couple inches.
Wow, 13 comments and we haven't even had a snowstorm yet. Not bad. Here's the CPC's 8-14 day outlook. They've really expanded the chances of below average temps to go all the way down to Florida. This range goes from Thanksgiving day to Dec 1st. Should get interesting!!
If the long range temperature forecasts are right, I would expect lake effect snow to be an issue the Saturday and Sunday AFTER Thanksgiving Day. Too early for specifics obviously
I believe this map is inaccurate. The darker blue 125-175" should run in a narrow strip from central to eastern Wayne Co. along the lakeshore, and inland about 5 miles. I believe we average about 130" here in Sodus Pt. due to lake effect snows. Places like North Rose, 5 miles from the lakeshore, often have more than we do.
Only two seasons in the last 10 has Sodus point recorded over 100" of snow. You did it in the 2002-03, 2003-04 seasons otherwise around 100" is average.
It's cool how there's a little island of heavier snow across northern Steuben county. I have family in Prattsburg (northern steuben co.). They get lots of snow down there. It probably also helps that they live on top of a big hill as well. Beautiful country down there, but i'd rather drive on nice flat 390 during icy conditions rather than some of the terrifying, curvy, steep roads they have down there.
ReplyDeleteIt looks like yet another big snowstorm for the upper midwest during thanksgiving week that will pass us way to our west. We will be left with the cold front that will cool us down with scattered lake effect for some.
ReplyDeleteThere's no cold air already in place yet, so you would expect the storms to tend to ride up to our north and west to get up and over the milder air over the east. That's quite typical early in the season, so don't worry. Once we start to get more cold air to work into our area, and stick around for awhile, the storm track will start to shift more to the south and east. Fact is, the indices have to work together ideally for us, and they just haven't lined up yet. It's going to be hard to get very cold with a strongly negative PNA that is forecasted in the next two weeks, even though the NAO may go more negative. We need that PNA to be positive to allow more cold air to be pumped down the western ridge and pour into the east. It looks like after the two week point, the PNA will start to go back toward neutral, and maybe even positive by early December if the projected trend continues beyond the indices range. That would be a good thing for us, as long as the OA and NAO stay negative. But if they, too, trend neutral or positive as the PNA also goes positive, we'll still be blocked from any real, true Arctic air, and be left with more of a pseudo-zonal flow. My thinking is that the PNA will trend neutral by the end of November and eventually positive by the first week of December. At that point, the NOA and AO will be weakly to moderately negative. That will mean our first true Arctic outbreak by early December. If I had to put a day on it, i'd say look out for major cold and snow by December 6th. Now with the said, the GFS has been suggesting quite a trough digging out into the east by around thanksgiving or just beyond, with a moist W shifting to NW flow for several days and possibly substantial LES during the final few days of the month. I think the GFS is jumping the gun again for one main reason - No strong positive PNA to support it (yet). The first or second week of Dec is a different story, however, as I noted.
ReplyDeleteScott, how come Niagara county has lesser amounts when its right on the lake just like Monroe county is. It's also closer to lake Erie.
ReplyDeleteHow much snow in the white area?
ReplyDeleteThe white shaded area is under 80" annually but many in those towns get between 40-60" on average. Average is a 30 year look so obviously that number is different year to year. Niagara county isn't downwind of a large water source. Notice how the heaviest amounts of snow are East of both Lakes. Single band lake snow usually produces the largest lake snows. Monroe County can get either single or multiband lake effect
ReplyDeleteThat's why I LOVE Monroe county. We get just the right amount of snow. I recall someone asking if Buffalo is snowier than Rochester. Interestingly enough, KROC averages more snow than KBUF over the last 30 years. And we beat Buffalo in seasonal snow the majority of the time. Yes, Buffalo gets their three feet in 24-hr snows occasionally, but we get the better nor-easters and our lake doesn't freeze so we can get some good lake effect / enhancement right through March. Rochester is an awesome snow city, That's just my opinion.
ReplyDeleteRemember too that Monroe County/Rochester can get some BLOCKBUSTER lake enhanced snowstorms. March 1999 comes to mind when a Noreaster combined with lake enhancement dumped 40" of snow in 48 hours!
ReplyDeleteAhhh, if only we can get one of those this year.
ReplyDeletethat would be awesome!
ReplyDeleteThe GFS model continues to show some arctic air with 850 mb temps down to -12 to -15 range for us just after Thanksgiving.. that would produce some good lake effect snow for some
ReplyDeleteYep, I just saw that myself. And I tell you what, even -10C crossing a lake that is around +10 would create some intense instability. The good thing is, it looks like there will be a moist flow crossing the lakes at the same time with the polar vortex setting up shop around Hudson Bay (the Arctic Oscillation will be plunging). That would mean "spokes" of short waves spiraling down from the North and West every day or so. Somebody might be digging out before the month is over. But by the looks of it, MOST will have to at least brush their cars off from a couple inches.
ReplyDeleteScott, is there any snow coming for Thanksgiving weekend that would make it hard to travel?
ReplyDeleteWow, 13 comments and we haven't even had a snowstorm yet. Not bad. Here's the CPC's 8-14 day outlook. They've really expanded the chances of below average temps to go all the way down to Florida. This range goes from Thanksgiving day to Dec 1st. Should get interesting!!
ReplyDeleteha, it would help if I passed along the link, huh:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/
If the long range temperature forecasts are right, I would expect lake effect snow to be an issue the Saturday and Sunday AFTER Thanksgiving Day. Too early for specifics obviously
ReplyDeleteI would think that some areas could see 6+ inches of snow from a cold snap like this
ReplyDeleteI like that this map marginalizes "lower New York" and the NY City region.
ReplyDeleteI believe this map is inaccurate. The darker blue 125-175" should run in a narrow strip from central to eastern Wayne Co. along the lakeshore, and inland about 5 miles. I believe we average about 130" here in Sodus Pt. due to lake effect snows. Places like North Rose, 5 miles from the lakeshore, often have more than we do.
ReplyDeleteOnly two seasons in the last 10 has Sodus point recorded over 100" of snow. You did it in the 2002-03, 2003-04 seasons otherwise around 100" is average.
ReplyDeleteScott Hetsko