Written by: Brian Neudorff
Although many of the conversations on this blog have been about snow, it is not in the cards just yet, but we do need some precipitation. At the half way point of the month we are a little over 0.6" below average, it looks like the next storm will help erase that deficit. In fact many of the models are hinting at us getting near an inch of rain through Wednesday.
A storm system that is currently forming along the Gulf Coast will begin to push northward tonight and into Tuesday. Rain will reach western New York late Tuesday afternoon or Tuesday evening. The rain will continue through the day Wednesday with a few scattered rain shower in its wake on Thursday. A few of the models I have looked at are wanting to print out an inch to as high as 1.3"
I know with all the moisture many of you wish I was talking about snow and not rain. I can also understand the frustration of many of the snow lovers out there. I think what is more surprising is how many of you are ready to write off this winter before it has even begun. I can tell you this much. As November goes doesn't mean the winter goes too.
2009 November produced a trace of snow, in the end we had almost an average year just shy with 89.2"
2007 Nov. 1.7" of snow for the season 106"
2006 Nov. 0.5" of snow for the season 107.2"
2005 Nov. 7.8" of snow for the season 73.9"
You get the idea, from a few recent Novembers that the month doesn't tell how the winter will go. You can see more of the climatology here
Our winter weather special with winter weather forecast for 2010-2011 will air Saturday at 7:30pm Before you get yourself all down and feeling defeated if you go off of climatology a La Nina winters traditionally produce higher seasonal snow (on average) but not very cold winters. As we have said many times, this may be a winter of ups and downs. Keep the faith and keep the comments coming.
I totally agree. And that data fits pretty well with my memory, too. I recall those winters where we had barely any snow or cold through November and even much of December - And then we got slammed by snow that dumped half our season's average in about 4 weeks, and ultimately had an above average winter. In those patterns, it always seemed to come right around or just after Christmas. I hope it doesn't hold off quite that long, but I agree it's WAAAY too premature to write off winter.
ReplyDeleteAnd to those snow-fans worried about a bust of a season...don't forget, those lakes are basking in the warmer air and sunshine right now, and that's keeping them in check. Lake Erie is now ABOVE average, and I imagine Ontario is about the same. With nothing extreme in sight in terms of cold, those lakes will continue to hold onto extra heat energy compared to normal for the next week or so at least. I can't recall a year where the lakes held on to their heat later in the autumn than they're supposed to, and there wasn't at least one dramatic lake effect event by December or January due to the intense instability caused by the difference between the lake water and 5,000 feet up.
I live in Batavia, right in the center of Genesee county. It always seems like the Pembroke / Corfu area in Western Genesee county has so much more snow when I travel out there. Then, when I go in the opposite side of the county to Leroy, theres not even half of that snow as was in Pembroke. It ALWAYS seems that way every winter! Batavia seems to sit right in the middle of the two accumulation-wise. Is it because of elevation or something?
ReplyDeleteI think it has more to do with your proximity to Lake Erie.
ReplyDeleteGenesee County snowfall varies by over 50" from West to East. That is entirely due to Lake Erie lake effect which will reach the Western part of Genesee County Frequently. Eastern Genesee is between the snow belts from Lake Ontario and Erie
ReplyDeleteThanks! I always thought of Genesee county as being inland enough to not really get much lake effect, but that makes sense because Pembroke is much closer to Buffalo than LeRoy. And Buffalo, of course, gets pretty good lake effect when the wind is right.
ReplyDeleteThanks again!
Scott -for a few of us novices, we need a reminder on "wind direction". Its not where its going but wind direction is "where its coming from" thanks, Don in Webster.
ReplyDeleteHi Scott, we missed your winter outlook for 2010-11 Saturday evening at 7:30. We love watching you and would enjoy seeing what you had to say that night. Can we see it on-line?
ReplyDeleteThanks!