Written by: Brian Neudorff
As Bob mentioned yesterday rain is on the way. With a storm moving to our north a lot of moisture will be pumped into the region. Rain will begin tomorrow morning and be with us through the day, Tuesday night and into Wednesday morning. The models above have been consistently showing one to two inches of rain by midday Wednesday.
Behind this system and cold front colder air will arrive. Temperatures will drop into the 30s by Wednesday night and highs will remain in the 30s into the end of the week and weekend as it looks right now. There are chances of snow but as of now it is hard to say how much. Stay tuned.
Brian,
ReplyDeleteI notice that after this mid week storm that tracks to our west, it looks to be the last of the latest series of storms tracking to our west. Is there a fundamental pattern shift finally about to setup where we start seeing more clippers that possibly bring synoptic snow as oppposed to every low tracking way to our west? Or am I totally missing the mark on that one?
Scott or Brian,
ReplyDeleteIs there any science behind the idea that everything balances out in weather? I ask because we just got done with an exceptionally persistent warm summer, and before that we had a fairly bland winter. Is there any feeling among the meteorologists that "the other is going to drop" weather-wise for us in western new york with winter returning with a vengence?
Dude, check out the ECMWF (euro) between hour 168 - 192. It has a retrograding low pressure system coming inland from New England at a time when very cold air is in place. 1)this isn't far far out comparatively. and 2) the Euro generally handles the physics of the atmosphere better. So, this should definitely bare watching. In any case, it looks like not this week, but NEXT week could get very cold and snowy even for Rochester! Am I right?
ReplyDeleteDude you are so totally wrong! You can not trust the Euro for two days in advance let 7 and 8 days.You need to chill dude because this winter is going to be like we are in the Bahamas!
ReplyDeleteOK so say that when this storm comes and our temps are in the negatives would we be talking about snow?
ReplyDeleteWell, temps won't be in the "negatives", but they'll be below average. Certainly cold enough for snow, if that's what you're asking. Of course, that's if you trust the euro a week out.
ReplyDeleteOn another note to those already frustrated snow lovers. So you know how all these storms have been all rain, including the one about to come tomorrow and wednesday and flood us? Well later in the week, we finally get cold, and a storm finally crosses with the cold air still in place. But guess what, it is expected to miss us well to the south and give snow to OH and PA. This is one of those "you've got to be kidding me" moment. What the heck is causing EVERY storm to stear every which way BUT over us whenever it's cold enough to be in the form of snow??? Scott please explain what's going on with this synoptic snow hole we're in? last year was el nino, and now it's la nina and it's the same darn thing. There's like a protective dome over us from any storm that would have the potential to produce snow. Unless it's very mild, then they all come at us like crazy and give us rain. What gives?
The bottom line is that unless we are in a "Neutral" ENSO which means neither El Nino or La Nina, we won't get a lot of big snowstorms. Just like last year, we will likely get one GOOD snow month with over 40". I expect that month to be January. This Winter will behave just like the recent pattern. Storms West or near us bringing rain, wind and then local lake effect. Sorry friends but get used to it :)
ReplyDeleteI hear ya. I never knew it to be so complicated to get a simple good ole fashioned general snow storm around these parts. It can happen in Dallas and DC, but apparently it's too much to ask for it up here. I like to think of out area as the "median" of the northeast. Cars (storms) are wizzing by on all sides, but we're in the safe zone where they don't travel (at least not when they're in the form of snow).
ReplyDeleteScott how's the second half of the week looking? I see Buffalo might get in on the lake effect snow again, but do the winds look to favor Rochester at any point or do we look to stay high and dry again?
ReplyDeleteThe NWS is talking about a stoprm early next that will pass to our South missing us completely. So funny!!! Storms to our West and when we finally get cold enough for a storm it passes to far South.
ReplyDeleteha, exactly. But at least the storms that pass to our west give us copious amounts of precipitation, as will be the case this week. Problem is....they're to our west! lol. Scott you've been telling us the winter should be like this, I guess I was hoping you'd be wrong. No offense. I hope anybody who doesn't favor major blockbust snow storms is wrong.
ReplyDeleteNo significant snows for the immediate Rochester area this week. West winds favor the towns Southwest, not us. I am encouraged by the consistent cold air that will follow this system. Anytime you have that, you never know what may creep up the coast :)
ReplyDeleteDude that is what I was saying check out the ECMWF for next Monday-Tuesday big low up the coast like you are saying Scott. Keep an eye on it!
ReplyDeleteThe best winter for consistent cold and snow in recent memory was 2002-03. Winter started in early December and it stayed cold and snowy ALL winter with no warm ups/thaws. Temps started to climb into the 40s and 50s in mid to late March. I was able to put 3,300 miles on my snowmobile that year, despite missing many riding opportunities due to grad classes.
ReplyDeleteWhat factors were in place that drove such a consistent, cold, snowy winter that year???
The winter of 2002-2003 featured an El Nino but with a predom negative AO and NAO. Other indeces such as the PNA EPO and GLAM were also in the "snowy" spot that all came together to give us one heck of a winter. The East coast got buried with nor-easters and the Rochester area got buried with lake effect as well as some major synoptic snows. When will we get a winter like that again? They are rare.
ReplyDelete^^^ That's for sure. It took a rare alignment of weather events to make a winter like that happen. Week after week there were clippers with 4-5" of lake effect several times per week...and one or two big storms, the most memorable being the Valentines Day storm of 2003 when 15" fell, IIRC. I drove to Quebec on the morning of the 15th and it was so cold that Rt. 104 was covered with hard packed snow even though it was salted. I believe it was several degrees below zero that morning. Still have the images in my mind.
ReplyDeleteWhen you have a strong La Nina or El Nino, it's hard to overcome even with a negative AO and NAO. The El Nino we experienced in Winter 2002-03 was a weak one so NAO and AO were able to become the dominant driver.
ReplyDeleteThe upcoming La Nina will be strong so that's why we feel confident in our Winter forecast of lots of variability.
It is what it is guys. We cannot change it. We may not like it, but we have to accept that this winter will bite if you like snow. I feel bad for the people that rely on cold and snow to make their living, like ski resorts and plowing companies. You cannot even make sure in this weather.
ReplyDeleteIm just curious, do we know when we will have neither la nina, el nino? Then maybe we'll have something to look forward to. '12? '13?
ReplyDeleteI am going to try an answer some of these questions. A lot of you asked some good ones. Scott has already answered many of these but there are a few I can answer.
ReplyDelete- to the person who asked about, "Is there any science behind the idea that everything balances out in weather?" I've never seen a study on this but at my first internship and from my own observation this seems to be true. This balance I have seen doesn't go season to season and maybe not year to year but in the end you always seem to get back to a balanced position.
I explain my own theory that the atmosphere and patterns can in a crude way be compared to the oscillation of a tight rubber band when you pull it one way or another. It will go up and down and eventually level out back at a flat line. You can kind of see this with our atmosphere and the jet stream and other patterns. So all though this is still theory and no scientific study it seems to hold up when you look at it in real world situations.
Thanks Brian. You make an interesting point when you state that it doesn't always go season to season or even year to year. A perfect example of that is the great southeast drought that happened a couple years ago. Back when they were battling over water in Atlanta and everybody was convinced this was global warming and it would be the "new climate" for the southeast. Then, a drought that took YEARS to form was wiped out in the course of a few months. Truly amazing. The Good man upstairs takes care of all of us in the end.
ReplyDeleteI notice that both the Euro and the GFS show a low sort of backing into New england somewhere between Maine and as close as the Adirdondack area early next week. Although we may not get a direct impact from that low itself, would that have implications for favorable and possibly peristent lake effect snow and some enhancement across the Rochester area? Again, that's IF that scenario were to play out. I know it's still a long way off.
ReplyDeleteBeen very busy this afternoon but I will have a new blog discussing the potential for prolonged lake effect even for Rochester next Monday and Tuesday. It will be up before 6 p.m.
ReplyDeleteThanks, Scott!
ReplyDelete