Written By: Scott HetskoIt won't be a blockbuster amount of snow but a few areas nearby will get some lake effect snow Friday night and Saturday morning. The air behind the next cold front will be just cold enough, along with cyclonic flow, to produce about 12 hours of lake snow showers.
Accumulations may reach a few inches in favored towns South of Buffalo as well as towns along and near I-81 North of Syracuse. Rochester won't see much from this, only snow showers with under an inch likely. Hey, at least it will be cold for all those shoppers hitting the malls. I will NOT be joining them, I prefer cyber Monday. :)
Scott,how does the southern tier look like for thanksgiving and Friday. I am going to be traveling down there and wondering what the travel conditions are going to be like.
ReplyDeletePerhaps some light ice or snow before noon Thanksgiving otherwise turning wet later in the day. As for Friday, windy and colder with some snow showers possible as the day progresses.
ReplyDeleteScott Hetsko
The national weather service was talking about the snow being further south of Tug hill then what you are pointing out on the map above... or are you just referring to Friday and not Saturday
ReplyDeleteThe prevailing wind looks to be mostly westerly rather than WNW (though it may turn more WNW later on Saturday). In any case, it should put the heaviest lake effect right on target with where Scott has the brighter shade of white across Southern Jefferson and Oswego counties. There's even a chance that the lake effect will initially set up near the Buffalo metro (or nearby south towns), and Watertown off Ontario before slowly shifting south as the winds veer late Friday / early Saturday. In my opinion, it's not looking good for much snow in Rochester throughout the entire "event." Just my opinion, though.
ReplyDeleteScott I see some weak streamers crossing Ontario Canada from the Georgian Bay area. Any chance they'll organize and align enough to maybe give ROC a minor accumulation overnight...perhaps a little more than a sugar coating?
ReplyDeleteOh boy! Scott, look at this evening's BUFKIT for later this week!!!
ReplyDeletePerhaps enough to dust the car overnight, boy you are desperate!!! LOL
ReplyDeleteLatest 850 temps are forecast to be around -12C to -14C Friday night into early Saturday. Stay tuned Wyoming, Genesee, Livingston, and Southwest Monroe counties for snowy night potentially Friday night. Could be several inches in those locations.
ReplyDeleteScott Hetsko
yeah, unfortunately it's come down to being excited by a dusting on my car. Hopefully those standards will be raised soon lol.
ReplyDeleteI love how the map shows all the snow around Rochester, but Rochester in that snowless black hole in between all the action. There is a shocker.
ReplyDeleteThe GFS shows a storm next week going to our West. Oh God. I cannot handle another winter like this!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
ReplyDeleteScott,will Rochester or Brighton pick up any snow or is it going to miss us. Also, when does it look like Monroe county could get a good dose of snow?
ReplyDeleteVery intersting about the past years and average snowfall. It has definatly been much snowier from 1990 up to the present. Hard to believe but it has. Thanks you for that website.
ReplyDeleteNo problem. I love that website, especially when comparing el nino and la nina years of the past and seeing how they stood up snowfall-wise. It's interesting how many 40+ totals we've had for single months, especially December and January of years past. You can also see how little snow in November doesn't always mean little snow for the following months. Just a little ray of hope for snow lovers.
ReplyDeleteBy the way, as for the potential storm going to our west next week, the GFS and ECMWF are showing slightly better agreement with next weeks weather pattern and storm track compared to how they've handled this upcoming late week / weekend event. Although a storm may go to our west, you'll notice that the GFS puts us in a moist, cyclonic, WNW flow thereafter. There's also a hint that we'll see a bit of synoptic leftover precip as the front comes through by the middle of next week. Perhaps a better shot of lake effect in the ROC area for next weeks event. But in any case, a colder and more active pattern looks to be getting established starting around Thanksgiving. Operational models and ensembles both hint at it, which increased confidence. The only thing that has me questioning it is the indices (NOA, AO and PNA). Today's indices look quite poor for cold air delivery by the 10-14 day period.
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