Written by: Bob Metcalfe
This is astonishing. You see a storm, but I see one of the most agreeable 100+ hour forecasts from two models that often fight that I've ever seen. The Euro is at the left, GFS on the right for the 114 hour forecast valid around 1am Friday (you know, just in time to line up for those ridiculously good Black Friday deals!)
I can draw many conclusions from this last model run. When models agree, even this far out, confidence in the forecast is greatly boosted. I can also deduce that this storm will take the track through the central Great Lakes, bringing us a chance for some rain to turn to snow showers during the day Friday. Accumulations could be small in some spots, but amount forecasts will have to wait for now. Just know that Turkey Day will be windy with rain as temperatures fall late with rain mixing or turning to snow during the wee hours of Friday morning. So no, it won't be a snow-covered field for your backyard Turkey Bowl, but you will need to dress warm and dry if you plan on braving it out for Black Friday!
Im so happy! Ive got about 30 quests coming to my house for Thanksgiving & I was worried a lot of them wouldnt make it because of the weather.
ReplyDeleteDo you think we'll have a window where the winds line up to produce LES bands across Monroe county on Friday or Saturday, or do they look to stay more westerly throughout that time, keeping the bands well to our east?
ReplyDeleteThis winter is going to suck if you like snow!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
ReplyDeleteThink about this, though. On black Friday, when folks are out doing their shopping for Christmas, and then on Saturday, when a lot of people put up their Christmas trees and lights etc. there will possibly be our first snow on the ground, and a little snow falling too. That will be perfect timing to get people in the early Christmas spirit.
ReplyDeleteThat's right liberals....I said Christmas instead of Holidays!
What's up with Accuweather hyping every single event into something so much larger than it ever is? There was a video on AccuWX today by the so-called "Northeast winter expert" about the tramendous lake effect snow expected to bury the great lakes. They are calling for 1-2 FEET of snow from lake effect lasting for several days.
ReplyDeleteFrom all that i've read, including the NWS forecast discussion, this is not expected to be a major event by any means. It will likely be our first measurable lake effect snow for some areas, but really quite a modest event. Am I right????
You probably are right on. Accuweather always overhypes, that's I find myself on this blog more often than their site now.
ReplyDeleteAccuweather must be looking at the 12Z "Fantasy" model! Yeah they should be called "Accu-Hype". Remember they were the ones who coined "Snow-hurricane" last Winter to scare the pants off of people.
ReplyDeleteI don't see how anyone in our area gets anything more than a couple inches and that would be the exception not the rule.
Agreed. I can't help but wonder if they are that out of touch with the meteorology of upcoming events, or if they know that they aren't being accurate, but say what sounds exciting and sells, knowing full well the very low chance that what they are saying will materialize. For that "Northeast Expert" to cut that video stating that feet (plural) would fall from lake effect over several days is just plain incorrect. Either he just made that crap up without looking at any of the models, or he knows very little about the complexities involved in lake effect. Do they even read forecast discussions from the NWS or look for analysis from local experts such as yourself? With such bold statement, I would expect that they do a whole ton of research before releasing it to the public.
ReplyDeleteI remember once when Joe Bastardi predicted a major lake effect snow event for Buffalo on a WSW wind when the lake was entirely frozen. He clearly didn't even bother to look at the critical things you local meteorologists analyze for lake effect all winter - such as whether the darn lake was frozen or not! I sent him an email reminding him that the lake was frozen over. He never replied back. The predicted lake effect storm never happened.
ReplyDeleteThe West is getting blasted with snow. Some ares picked up 6 feet. Very jealous since we might not even see 6ft all year here in Rochester.
ReplyDeleteWell, those areas that have seen 6 feet are mostly on the highest peeks of the Cascades and the Sierra mountain range. Those are also places that occasionally pick up 1,000" of snow per year. No, that wasn't a typo...1,000". So, that's not really a fair comparison. You'll always be bummed out if you compare Rochester to those areas, because they blow even the Tug Hill region away each year. But I understand what you're saying and share your frustration. I really don't like the trends i'm seeing so far. I know Scott has been telling us that this may not be a year for big snows, but still. We may have to count very heavily on Lake Ontario this year to pull through with a frequent moist WNW wind. If we have mostly Westerly wind events OR frequent occasions where the winds and 850 temps are right for lake effect in Rochester, but there is very little humidity in place, I fear even 75 inches might be overly optimistic - perhaps by a couple feet. I love snow, but I have to be real and call it like I see it. A lousy winter is ahead if you want to use your snow shovel.
ReplyDeleteI do not care what anyone says, when I was a kid I remember many many winters with snow on the ground all winter long. I remember playing on huge mounds of snow in our neighborhood circles and building snow forts at the end of the driveway because the snow was so high. We are lucky now if the snow stays on the ground for a few days before it melts. Snowstorms are few a far between. All we get is nickle and dimed year after year. Winters have changed around here. I have lived here all my life and winters have definatley changed to a lack of cold and snow.
ReplyDeleteWhat happended to this big cols air and snow for after thanksgiving everyone weas talking about last week. Now temps look to be on the upper 30's and 40's with just a few wet snow showers at most. It wil be near 50 by next Monday and Tuesday. What happended??????
ReplyDeleteWhat happened is what almost always happens...weather comes more into focus as we get closer. That's the way weather works. 7 days out should only be interpreted as a trend and for sure don't count on the precipitation being right that far out ever!
ReplyDeleteThanks Scott. I just wish it work in our favor sometimes.
ReplyDeleteI have to agree. I see a lot more bare ground in the middle of winter now than I remember as a kid. Even my family out in the middle Genesee Valley, where they get HALF the average snowfall of most places north of the thruway, recall winters with waist high snow drifts and digging their cars of out of the driveway routinely. Not anymore. I'm not so sure about lake effect snow, but I do think that we've been in a synoptic (low pressure driven) snow drought for the last several years. I think I forgot what a good ol' fashioned clipper system looks like these days. And forget about the lows that come up the Ohio Valley and dump us with a foot of front end snow followed by another foot of wrap around snow with lake enhancement as they pass just to our south and east. What happened to those???
ReplyDeleteScott, I know that our recollections and reality are sometimes two different things. Have we been in a synoptic snow drought overall?
62 degrees on my home weather station. It stayed in the upper 50's most of last night, too. Pretty incredible for late November.
ReplyDeleteI say we go for the least snowiest year. I think the least snowiest year was back in 1933 at 29 inches. Let's shoot for that. If the winter is going to snowless anyway lets shoot for a record snowless year!!!!!!!!!!!!!
ReplyDeleteI take my passion for snow to what some might call an unhealthy level. I'm like that crazy football fan who is bummed out the whole next week when his team loses on Sunday. But after the constant disappointments last year, and now a similar trend repeating itself this year, Its really got me jaded and caused me to take a "whatever" stance on it all. Mother nature is gonna do what she wants to do, and our moods toward the weather won't change a thing. I say go for the least snowiest record as well. Bring it on!
ReplyDeleteJust remember when you were a kid, you were MUCH smaller than you are now! Snowfall in the 1990's averaged over 100", then only decade on record with that high an average. You may be able to make a case that is doesn't stick around for as long but the amounts we get are more over the past 20 years than the 100 years prior!
ReplyDeleteI am with you. I love love love snow and storms. I just get soooooooo dissappointed year after year when we miss storm after storm. I get a little depressed. I Know it is crazy but that is how much I love snow as well.
ReplyDeleteScott makes a good point. NOAA has a great site that breaks down snowfall amounts for EVERY year from 1940 to present in Rochester. It breaks it down by monthly total and then the years total each winter. You'll see that "back in the day" it wasn't nearly as snowy as now. Here's the site below.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.erh.noaa.gov/buf/climate/roc_snow00s.php
If you click on the decade from 1940-1950 to the left on that site, you'll see that the 1940's snowfall totals were actually pretty pathetic. Really puts it into perspective.
ReplyDeleteWhat's that called when you get sad in the winter? Seasonal Depression Disorder? Well they should research a possible new one:
ReplyDeleteSnowfall (or lack thereof) Depression Disorder.
I know, I know, that was lame. But couldn't resist.
i agree it is so not fair that the West gets this huge snow storm and the most snow we will get is a sugar-coating on the ground and that is why i hate winter
ReplyDelete