ARE WE EXPERIENCING LESS SYNOPTIC SNOWS?
Written by: Brian Neudorff
I have only been in Rochester for 3 years, before that I was not too far away in Erie, PA. I have heard the frustration in many of your voices when it comes to the lack of synoptic storms, most importantly the synoptic snow. As the frustration and the comments mounted I started to ask, were there more synoptic storms in the past compared to today? From some of the comments I have read over the years I started to get this image of a big snow storms occurring every winter and maybe even two or three a winter, back in the day.
At that point I had to know what winters were like before the 90s and 2000s, so I did some homework and emailed Stephen McLaughlin from the Buffalo National Weather Service and asked him, "From some of the comments we get on our blog I get the impression that there were more winter storms in the past than what we have seen over the last 10 years, is this true?" Here is what he had to say.
I think most of your viewers and bloggers suffer from the same thing we all do when remembering past winters...exaggeration! maybe because we were smaller the snow seemed taller.... but looking at the facts...Rochester averages only one 10"+ snowfall every two years or so....and this trend is similar all the way back to 1900.
I asked Steve about that 10" + snowfall every two years or so and asked if he was talking about just synoptic snow or both synoptic and lake effect.
....this is synoptic AND lake effect....a total of 36 such events in the last 60 years...for an average of 0.6 a year. 1977-78 had 4...no other year had more than 2.He went on to explain the traditional path of most synoptic events around our region and why they have a hard time coming in over us.
I'm not sure of the exact lake effect vs synoptic breakdown...but I'd assume the vast majority for you were synoptic...say 25-30 of the 36....but that's still less than one every two years.
And...as a point of comparison....Buffalo had 49 such events in the 60 years....for an average of 0.8 per year. but a solid 35-40 were lake effect and only 10-15 were synoptic (about one every 4-5 yrs!). That's the difference in how we get our winter snowfall...as both cities average almost exactly the same total amount...(95-100")...
It might seem funny to talk about lack of big snowstorms in a place that catches 100 inches a year....but western NY is just not in a favored area for heavy synoptic snows... storms don't like to go directly up the Appalachians...they track up the coast or up into the Lakes...so we often get only light to moderate amounts (coastals too far east, cutters weaken as they reach Michigan/Ontario and we turn to rain)...there are exceptions of course, about every 6-8 years we can catch 1 to 2 feet from a synoptic storm (Feb 1984, Mar 1999, Dec 2002) but these are not as frequent as say in Boston or even NYC ( a la the past few days).My final question for Steve was to quantify how much of our snow comes from lake effect versus synoptic.
Rochester's prime snows would be on the west edge of a big synoptic storm and then the wraparound becoming lake enhanced...NE to NW....this happened in Mar 1999...the last true blizzard for you...
But...all that being said...we call Western NY the "mesoscale mecca but synoptic desert". About half of Buf and Roc's snow is lake effect....Buffalo usually in one or two big dumps on an early season SW wind then little "nickel and dimes" all winter....Rochester constant "dimes and quarters"...mostly Jan-Mar... Your record 46" this month is hard to believe, but frequency of 6 to 8 inch falls the first two weeks really added up...and Dec is not usually Roc's snowiest month (it is forLove to hear all of your thoughts on this. I found it very interesting. I love snow and I feel your pain. My dad lives in CT and in the areas that saw a foot or more of snow from this last storm. I haven't called him yet to see how it was, mainly cause I don't want to hear about it just yet. I wish it was happening to us.
Buf)
So...you are right...we miss most big synoptic storms but make up for it with the lake effect. Would you rather have 60" in 10 events (suburban Boston) or 80" in 40 events (Roch/Buf).... that's our dilemma!!
The one thing I prefer about our snow in WNY is that it is more likely to stick around after it snows. NYC, Boston, Phili and definitely D.C tend to hit 40 within just a couple days of their big storms. Snow rarely sticks around long there before turning to slop. Here, on the other hand, snow can really pile up with weeks of at or below freezing temps.
ReplyDeleteWhat fun is a two foot snow storm when 45 degrees is in the forecast just two days later?
thats bull i remeber one drift by my dads almost reaching the bottom part of garage and have not seen that there since the 92 93 winter now there was a winter
ReplyDeleteWhat about clipper systems that cross our region? We haven't had any substantial clipper cross our region since 2008-09. I can recall many years where clippers dropped a good 3-6 or 4-7 inch snowfall every week or so for a month long period. McLaughlin doesn't mention anyting about the track of these storms. While they may not be as "potent" as storms coming up from the south, they are still synoptic, and can really get enhanced by the lakes.
ReplyDeleteThat is correct we are in the area that big snowstroms will not hit us. However, there has not been many the last 11 years when it was stated every 6-8 years we get good storms. In 99 I believe we got 20 inches one day then two days later another 20 inches I believe. I think that was 99 but not sure. Last year we got the one storm late that I think brought 10 inches of snow. It is waht it is we will not get the big storms because they do hug the coast and do not come in land far enough to give us the sweet track.
ReplyDelete".....there are exceptions of course, about every 6-8 years we can catch 1 to 2 feet from a synoptic storm (Feb 1984, Mar 1999, Dec 2002) but these are not as frequent as say in Boston or even NYC ( a la the past few days."
ReplyDeleteThis is not an entirely accurate quote by Mr.McLaughlin. What about last years dumping of a foot and a half at the end of February? What about the big Valentines day storm in 2007? 1-2 feet from a synoptic every 6-8 years? That is a load of crap.
Please keep in mind these are "averages" there will always be outliers and exceptions. Plus keep in mind some of these 10" + in day don't account for snow that starts late in the day and carry over into the next morning. Technically, although that is one event it is two days. So when they look at their numbers they are seeing them per day not necessarily per event or 24 hours.
ReplyDeleteOkay, that makes more sense Brian, in terms of how they calculate the event by day. However that doesn't seem like an ideal way to measure our events. In fact, i'm surprised they would measure it that way because you lose all context of the event that way, and end up throwing out statistics like we average major 10"+ events only 6-8 years. That's simply not true.
ReplyDeleteThis is exactly what bothers me about how NOAA messes around with the numbers in strange ways. It makes things appear different than they reality.
Bottom line is that we do not receive the blizzards that the East Coast receives like last year and this year. We are too far West. We are spectators to storms to our West and East and South. It is what it is.
ReplyDeleteThe fact is, we live in a region that averages nearly 100" of snow. Think about that for a minute....One HUNDRED inches! We are spoiled here in WNY. We have had snow on the ground for nearly 30 straight days and were dumped by snow for two straight weeks early in the month. This just goes to show how high our expectations are here because we get so much snow.
ReplyDeleteDon't forget us folks down in the southerntier DK ;) Yes, we do have a little snow on the ground but we really do not the lake effect like ya'll do up in Rochester. Now and then if the winds are right, we might catch some off the Erie Bands or it may push far enough south off of Ontario. I am only 36 but I remember back as a little guy, we would get big storms that left us knee deep walking up the hill in the front yard to sled down. I also remember my Dad hooking up the large wooded tabogan and pulling me and brothers thru the fields with the old ford pick up.
ReplyDeleteThe temps are warming up now to melt off what we have. I kind of like that it is playing out like this now as i have alot or branches to pick up that blew off the trees into the yard. that way if we DO GET a good snow this year, I dont have to worry about me or my girls loosing en eye to a burried tree branch.
That is a good point DK. We do have high expectations and us snow lovers will always be dissappointed when we miss all the synoptic storms, especially the BIG blizzards that have hit the mid-atlantic and Northeast over the past several years.
ReplyDeleteI do not care what the current models are saying there will be something between the 8th and 15th. It will not be a monster storm but a good one and it will track father west and north this time up the coast. We will get synoptic snow and wrap around lake enhanced snow. Mark it down!
ReplyDeleteWhy do you say that Henry. I hope you are right.
ReplyDeleteAnonymous looking at the long range models runs particularly the GFS. They will change frequently but you wait until the middle of next week it will show mark it down the only question as with all these east huggers is does it hug the coast or kick up the App. mountains it will this time!
ReplyDeleteI know we do not want to live on model to model runs especially this early. But look at the 12Z ECMWF, 12Z GGEM, and 12Z GFS for the 7th, 8th and it looks interesting. Maybe Henry W is on to something. You never know.
ReplyDeleteHenry W.,
ReplyDeleteWhere are you getting this information from? Joe Bastardi by any chance?
I grew up and attended college in the Town of Oswego. About 18,000 people reside in that area. 10+ LES events typically delayed school, maybe an hour, sometimes not. There were a events like that so often, it was just "normal". Typically, we got slammed in Mid-January. And, even mid March. Events that would be states of emergency here we just plowed through. I think the best is yet to come for us here in the Rochester Metro. It has been dull- we got spoiled by some exciting events early! Hopefully we'll have some excitement and good science to observe with nobody getting hurt or any property being damaged in January.
ReplyDeleteDK did you look at the 3 models I referenced for the information? All you have to look at is those and see the possibilities who needs Joe B. Where do you get yoyur information from?
ReplyDeleteHenry W.,
ReplyDeleteNo need to get defensive. I was sincerely curious where you got the info from. I'd love to have some hope for a great storm to finally hit us. I didn't see the three models you referenced, but i'll scroll up and take a look at them.
Henry W., You want that driveway plowed dont you?? LOL Where do you go to look at the models? Does it have a "dummy's giud to reading it?? I would sure need it!!
ReplyDeleteDK I was not getting defensive sorry if I came across that way. I know you have great knowledge and post good stuff on the blog. Chris if you go to noaa you will find a great deal of info. It is not easy to go through how to read everything. This is just I thought based on what I read and have looked at as far as the 8th-15th time frame. I believe we are going to get a storm in western NY. But things will change model to model so really not worth looking until next week. For example the latest GFS run had the LP going OTS but that could/may change many times. I am going by the early model data that usually comes back into play as it did with the Christmas storm. Things were predicted 15 days in advance by some models that actually came true. However, things changed numerous times even up until two days before that finally had consensus on the exact track. Many two days before thought that storm was more OTS and big cities were going to get little. I think this storm is going to go much more west. We will see I hope for all those Rochesterians who want a good synoptic snow fall.
ReplyDeleteThanks Henry. I will get on and play with that site. I am off work til February after having knee surgery so it will give me somthing to do to try to ease the cabin fever. I am holding much hope for a good storm that not only gives folks up in Rochester a big snow, but for us snow lovers here in Livingston county. It always amazes me how i can leave the house (I live about 6 miles up Rt256 out of Dansville) and head down Conesus Lake and watch the snow totals increase. Location, location, location! My girls are ready to wax up the inner tubes and do some sledding! My oldest who is five is ready to make a snowman too! I hope that her wish comes true!
ReplyDeleteI hope so Chris. I still stand by there will be a storm for this time period. The key question as always is will it be to far east for us. I am just feeling NO it will get us this time. Just hoping our time has come. Positive thinking from Rochesterians is needed!
ReplyDeleteI could not agree more. I went onto the site you mentioned but l need to look further as to where to find the models that ya'll look at best time for me would be at night. With three girls, the youngest being 3 months, I do not get much Daddy time these days. I wouldn't trade it for anything but night time is when the three ring circus stops for the day. I did find one map that shows our friends out away getting pounded. Is that the same system you ate speaking of Henry?
ReplyDeleteChris go to this site www.meteo.psu.edu that may help a little at looking at some things in regards to the weather.
ReplyDeleteThanks Henry, that will give me something do as we await the ball drop!
ReplyDelete