Written By: Scott Hetsko
As I've read the comments on the blog the past few days, I've been amazed by how many of you who look at forecast models have wavered right along with them. If I did that on television, my credibility would be down the drain. I honestly don't mean to berade you but you simply cannot just watch computer models to forecast weather, especially here!!! I use experience from past storms, current hemispheric patterns just as much if not more in forecasting Winter weather.
Let me hop off my soapbox and get to the next storm.
A storm taking shape over the mid west will track initially to our West during the day Sunday. There's NO WAY precipitation stays all snow because temperatures between 3,000 and 10,000 feet warm above freezing. Precipitation producing clouds live at this level so dendritic snow growth is impossible for the duration. So a wintry mix over to some rain for awhile looks likely before the evening hours. Cold air advection will follow as the parent low transfers energy to a new low over Northern New Jersey Sunday night. As bitter cold air deepens overnight and Monday, lake snow guns will fire up once again.
Temperatures will remain in the low to mid teens on Monday with wind chills below zero much of the day as well. Some areas may see significant blowing and drifting depending on how low the pressure gets in the storm. If winds gust over 30-40 mph, whiteout conditions are possible. Generally just not a pleasant day Monday. Lake snow will persist Monday night through Wednesday once again.
Locally 1-2 feet of snow of course is possible but I'm a little concerned about residence time over the lakes with strong winds. Residence time, the amount of time the air spends over the lake, is critical to gathering sufficient moisture to produce quality lake effect. Whew! That was a long discussion...I really don't expect the forecast to change much but if it does we'll keep you in the loop!
Scott,
ReplyDeleteDoes it look like we'll have more of a NNW or NW wind with this setup versus a WNW wind? If so, what areas are favored with those wind vectors? Are you impressed by any synoptic wrap around snow as that low bombs out to our east?
Still really have do not have a clue as to what you are saying? Not much synoptic snow from the storm? Only certain areas will get alot of lake effect or there will not be enought residence time to produce lake effect? Confused!
ReplyDeleteThanks for keeping us updated, Scott!
ReplyDeleteJust wondering how you came up with that horse shoe shaped snow map?
If you are confused about the term "synoptic" it basically means snow that is produced from an actual storm system like a low pressure system, and is area-wide, regardless of the lakes. As you may know, lake effect doesn't always accompany an actual "storm system" as in a general snowfall from a low pressure. Lake effect can be produced on its own soley from the lake (thus, lake effect). So around the great lakes, it's often useful to distinguish between lake effect or a general, area-wide snowfall produced by a low pressure system (synoptic). Hope that helps if that's what you were confused by.
ReplyDeleteAlso, because low pressure systems spin counter-clockwise, they pull down cold air on the back side (the west / left side) of the storm because the winds on that side are traveling from the the north toward the south and dragging down cold air from the north with it. Often times, there is still some precip "wrapping around" that low pressure system, as it spins, on the backside. That is often our best chance for a general, area-wide snowfall. Once the low passes us, we are left on its back side, where it drags down the colder air capable of producing all snow. If there is moisture making it all the way around the back side of the storm, we can get a shot of snow. And there you have synoptic wrap around.
ReplyDeleteHey Scott, I have a question for you that has to do with a comment ripping me in the last blog. Do you agree with the fact that although I was wrong about this storm that there are times that every meteorologist is wrong about storms? and can you agree with me that the more I do it the better I will get at it? it seems that someone on here thinks that because I messed up once on a forecast that he has to rip me in the open about it. I know that is all part of being a meteorologist but sometimes I dont like it when people treat you this way because of just one forecast. My last forecast for the lake snows was pretty accurate just a little low overall. But it seems that it is not the forecast that people remember but the forecast I got wrong is the one that is brought up
ReplyDeleteI'm curious about the period of rain that is expected. Are we talking about a prolonged soaking that will melt the snow cover that we already have? Thanks!
ReplyDeleteAre you still expecting the worst weather to be Sunday evening,Sunday night and into Monday?
ReplyDeleteNo one is really ripping just glad you learned. Be careful throwing the word blizzard out 4 or 5 days out from the storm. All the model runs showed no consistency thus you and many others making these predictions was like picking up sticks in the pitch dark night!
ReplyDeleteI have updated my blog.. even though part of me did not want to since it seems people just read it to laugh at me and my lack of forecasting ability but here it is anyways and lays out in detail sunday and monday and my thoughts on the storm: http://rochesternyweather.blogspot.com
ReplyDeletePlease let me know what you think about the forecast including Scott please as I really want some feedback so I can learn
ReplyDeleteCharles - Don't sweat it, whether you're a newbie or a veteran you're going to get a forecast wrong. It happens, and when you do they will remember it. I respect what you did. You put yourself out there you said here is my forecast and why. That's all you can do. People will always challenge you and this may be the most valuable lesson as a meteorologist.
ReplyDeleteHey Brian what do you think of my new forecast.. I really went into detail with this forecast
ReplyDeleteCharles,
ReplyDeleteHow far into the meteorology program are you? Are you going for an actual 4 year degree and AMS seal of approval?
Charles, learning forecasting is a life long process and you need to grow thick skin! I have found that even when I'm fairly right on a storm or several days of complicated forecasting, some people will still find something wrong.
ReplyDeleteThat's people, just do your best to learn from mistakes and don't let the negative get to you!
Another suggestion is to not take forecast models as gospel. More often that not, they're wrong. YOU need to study HOW to understand the local mechanisms that make our weather unique. Models cannot and never will be able to do that which is why we'll always have jobs. :)
ReplyDeleteThanks for the encouragement... I was really down when I came home and read that post.
ReplyDeleteI am actually only 1 semester into the program. It is not a 4 year program however I may in the future pursue a 4 year degree. It is a distance learning program and here is the link: http://www.distance.msstate.edu/geosciences/BMP/index.html
ReplyDeleteIn my opinion, you must have a good 4 year basis on all aspects of meteorology. No offense but a few months in, you've got a ton to learn.
ReplyDeletetHE QUESTION IS HOW MUCH SNOW WILL WE GET FROM THE SYNOPTIC SIDE OF THINGS AND HOW MUCH FROM LAKE EFFECT? SCOTT SAID 1-2 FEET. IS THAT ALL LAKE EFFECT WHICH MOST OF US WILL SEE NOT MUCH SNOW.
ReplyDeleteMany will NOT NOT NOT see that much snow. Locally 1-2" potential but it's TOO EARLY
ReplyDelete1-2' potential, I mean
ReplyDeleteHow long will the rain last? Will it melt all the existing snow?
ReplyDeleteOoops, sorry....looks like that question was asked already.
ReplyDeleteWintry mix/rain shouldn't be enough to melt the existing snow but it will compress and melt a bit each day before the storm.
ReplyDeletei am thinking of becoming a meteorologist what are the skills you need beside the interest in weather i know this a little off topic....
ReplyDeleteDon't listen to the negative posters Charles, this form of discourse is great, but people get to hide behind the wall that is "Anonymous". They feel better about themselves when they can put others down.
ReplyDeleteYou are one of the few that dare to put your name on what you say. You have a passion for weather like most people here, but you go beyond the IMBY questions and try to add your thoughts on what will happen. Those thoughts are a pleasure to read.
Keep pursuing your passion, every storm is a learning opportunity. Truth is, every forecast is just an educated guess. Scott can be wrong, Brian can be wrong, etc... Experience just gives you the chance to increase your odds, but mother nature will put even the best in their place.
Storm is going to be a bust for the city again!
ReplyDeleteWhat do you refer to a bust as... it still will be a snowy night and monday next week
ReplyDeleteDid you see the news 8 post above that said many will NOT NOT NOT see that much snow that is what I am refering to!
ReplyDeleteon Monday will the windchill be below negative 20 by any chance?
ReplyDeleteWell how much snow do you need for it not to be a bust?
ReplyDeleteI just want to say that you all should take a look at you thermometer! Her in Penfield it is 9,3° and it is 6pm,the coldest temperature I measured this winter!!! The sky is clear since 4pm.
ReplyDeleteAnd about the windchill question. I think that could be possible and at negative 20, some of the schools start to cloose.
thanks for answering my question
ReplyDeleteTo me anything less than the '93 Superstorm is a bust. I'm never satisfied!
ReplyDeleteI have to drive to Albany this weekend. Is it going to be a terrible drive back on Sunday or ok in the morning with rain? Thank you.
ReplyDeleteJeremy, The superstorm of '93, now that was impressive. Even more impressive is that they had nailed the forecast like 7 days in advance.
ReplyDeleteThis is a great blog and enjoyable for a part-time weather geek like me.
Thanks!
I have added images to my forecast with locations outlined for specific precipitation types
ReplyDeletehttp://rochesternyweather.blogspot.com
Charles can you explaing the news 8 post at 4:34 that says mant will NOT NOT NOT see much snow? Yet you have a possible one to two feet?
ReplyDeleteread the rest of that post... locally 1-2' is what news 8 said as well... I did not say widespread 1-2' but localized heavy snow amounts
ReplyDeleteThe potential is there for one to two feet. All I was trying to say is that not everyone should expect that. We have a LARGE audience and cover many counties. People who read this in Yates County, Southern Livingston for example likely WON'T get that much. I always take a cautionary tone especially 80 hours out. EVERY forecaster should.
ReplyDeleteThat is what I meant!
Scott
I know I agree with you Scott. The image I put up with heavy snow includes half of Monroe county and most of Wayne county for the heaviest snow
ReplyDeleteThanks Charles and Scott for clarifying! What do you think the metro may get for snow amounts?
ReplyDeleteToo early, simply put. I will say that Rochester metro is in the higher risk for significant snowfall.
ReplyDeleteIt is hard to tell because it is lake effect... if a band develops and sits over the city like the last storm then the metro may get 1-2' however if the band avoids the city like it sometimes does it could be as low as 1-2 inches
ReplyDeleteLatest NAM run has this storm way more west and north not good for you snow lovers. Sorry.
ReplyDeleteScott,
ReplyDeleteDo you think conditions warrant the NWS eventually issuing a Winter Storm Watch or perhaps a Lake Effect Snow Watch by Friday or Saturday?
I think eventually they may post some watches but perhaps not until Saturday. Storm still has more questions than answers.
ReplyDeleteScott