Written By: Scott Hetsko
I expect the Georgian Bay connection to intensify North and near Route 104 later tonight. Can't discount the continued snow off of Lake Huron into Genesee and Western Monroe Counties as well.
I'll post my thoughts on the upcoming storm Sunday tomorrow. Nothing has changed from my previous opinion but there's no doubt the bitter cold and heavy lake snows to follow Monday through Wednesday.
Snow is starting to build up! Looks pretty good.
ReplyDeleteI live in Rochester where, of course, we have a nice snowpack. Visiting family in Geneseo today, I was surprised to see how little snow they have. You can still see blades of grass coming up through the dusting of snow they have. They must be wondering what the heck we're talking about up here with our 20" of snow since Sunday!
ReplyDeleteThe power of lake effect snow! People don't realize how difficult and highly local snow forecasting is in our area. It's a challenge that we enjoy in the weather department!
ReplyDeleteScott
Scott
ReplyDeleteYou posted earlier that there will be a liquid ratio of 30:1 with the storm Sunday meaning the snow will really pile up and you said you think the storm will deepen and you feel there will be blizzard like conditions. Is that how you still feel? News 10 is still bullish that this storm wil go east and up the coast big opinion differences on this one.
30:1 once the cold air comes in following the storm. Still think enough warm air aloft will be present to give us several hours of a wintry mix. The worst weather for us will begin overnight into Monday morning then continuing through Wednesday.
ReplyDeleteScott
Picking up in N. Ontario at 1800. Drive from Newark to N. Ontario perfectly clear. State roads down to pavement. Concern was floating around this AM about a far more significant band setting up in Central Wayne County- Looks as though that doesn't match present modeling. Far more accumulation in the Marion/Fairville area that in Ontario on the ground.
ReplyDeleteScott you are always one as Kevin said on rhe broadcast to not over hype storms that is why you are Rochester's number weather dude. But, you really seem on air tonight worried that this is going to be a strong storm causing major problems from Mon-Wed. Just what I saw it may be inaccurate. But, thanks for the supplying the blog and all the hard work you do!
ReplyDeleteThere will be problems from Monday through Wednesday. If not the snow, the cold wind chills will be down right dangerous. I read a comment from a meteorologist out of the National Weather Service in Buffalo. He is very concerned about dangerous conditions beginning Sunday night into the early part of next week. This is not hype by Scott, this is the reality of the bitterly cold air combined with wind that WILL occur REGARDLESS of what track this silly storm takes.
ReplyDeleteConditions deteriorating rapidly across the north side of the city. Tricky travel even on the highly traveled expressways on the north side.
ReplyDeleteNo one said that Scott is hyping this in fact it was stated he does not hype the big storms. In fact it seems that he is trying to not hype it to scare people yet you can feel he thinks this will be a strong storm and is being cautious. He is the one most people in Rochester believe in when predicting these storms.
ReplyDeleteThe Euro still shows the storm passing to our West while the GFS shows it moving up the Hudson. They have both not budged.
ReplyDeleteOn and off light flurries in Gananda. The lake effct just does not want to form tonight.
ReplyDeleteThere is a stronger band of lake effect forming just north of the shoreline ... also the connection is beginning to form if you look at radar in Canada it is just about to get to lake Ontario
ReplyDeleteWill that move South into MOnroe and Wayne counties. What is your thoughts on The Sunday-Monday storm?
ReplyDeleteThe band has been moving southward and will affect Monroe and Wayne county later this evening. Also here in Ontario we already have some pretty good snow rates ongoing. My thoughts on the storm next week have been posted at my blog which you can find by clicking on my name and then clicking on the blog name
ReplyDeleteThanks. I read your blog. I hope you are right. It would nice to get an old fashion blizzard around here. Our local forecasters are not saying much about it though.
ReplyDeleteI think they will begin to say more about it after tonight when we are in the clear from this lake event
ReplyDeleteI'll say it now...NO old fashioned blizzard but occasional whiteouts and bitter cold Monday through Wednesday. Amounts too early to tell but we will experience our coldest airmass since last Winter.
ReplyDeleteScott
We're out on Wautoma Beach and have had lots of wind, but very little snow. Just a mile or so east and it's a different story. This has been a very interesting week.
ReplyDeleteAt 4 am, we are finally getting some of that lake band that was over wayne county all day and evening. We'll see what we get, maybe another 4 inches over the 2 we just got in the last two hours. This last storm was funny in that the lakeshore communities really didn't get as much as the city or the s.e. suburbs like pittsford. I had probably 10" total as of this morning compared to my folks getting about 18" in Pittsford. I live in W. Irondequoit- we usually get hammered w/ the LES. As for the up coming storm, I believe it will happen for someone between chicago and NYC. As for the details, storms this time of year have a history of moving west. And following the storm the winds may be too strong and too northerly to really hammer us.
ReplyDeletethe latest GFS model run is very confusing... it does not even dig the storm at all ... has it moving straight east from chicago to western NY before a coastal low forms... it does not have it getting further south then Lake Erie ever in its storm track
ReplyDeleteYour most recent post is interesting Scott you did state in an earlier post you felt the snow would pile up and " There will blizzard like conditions" from the storm. I agree with your most recent statement this storm is nothing special just a minor one and we will get more rain and most towns will be get minor LES.
ReplyDeleteHe is using too many absolutes for storms this far in the future
ReplyDelete00z and 06z took nearly the same track 18z took! What is going on?
ReplyDeleteWhat do you think about this Scott?
Oz run for the Euro brings the storm east...
ReplyDeleteWhat does that mean the Oz run for Euro brings the storm East and the OOz and O6z took same track as 18z?
ReplyDelete00z and 06z took pretty much the same track the storm took in the 18z and the 18z had a new track for the storm!(eastward)So now it seems like there is a new solution for the track of the storm.
ReplyDelete0z run for the euro brings the storm east means basically the same--> storm more east
These to solution would bring less precipitation and the storm would not be too bad!
The latest GFS shows the storm very weak. Oh well. It was exciting while it lasted.
ReplyDeleteI dont believe that is exactly what is happening with the models. Think what we are seeing is the Euro coming more in line with the GFS. I think that we are going to see a low track south of NYS and then up through the Hudson Valley. The big question is how much does the low deepen and where does the heavy strip of synoptic snow setup. Also will Lake Ontario enhance the snow at all once the winds swing around to the N-NE. Still many questions. I am sure that the News 8 weather team will keep us up to date. What do you think guys....does this sound resonable?
ReplyDeleteI would discount the last couple runs of the GFS. There appears to be a glitch. Possibly missing data over the pacific in its initialization. It's like a lengthy math equation, one seemingly small error or missing number early in the equation, and the result will be completely different.
ReplyDeleteThe other option with the GFS is now that the low pressure over the northeast has moved out. Now the models can better handle the new storm system?
ReplyDeleteSo much for the snow stopping in the morning... it is still snowing in Ontario
ReplyDeleteLooks like this is going to be a bust, Charles you agree?
ReplyDeleteare you talking about Sunday's Storm?
ReplyDeleteIf you are ... I dont think it will be a bust. I still think we will get 6-12 inches of snow on the back side of the storm system with heavy lake effect on Mon and Tues
ReplyDeleteGreatly shortened fetch on a NNW or NW wind and the lack of connection to the upper lakes on that wind vector might limit feet of snow in my opinion.
ReplyDeleteI'll offer the latest of my view on the Sunday-Tuesday situation by 3 p.m. this afternoon. You all live too much model to model. Now that we're 84 hours out, I'm interested in what the NAM will have to offer. No one has mentioned that all models show 0 degrees are higher at 850 and 925 mb Sunday which practically guarentees a wintry mix.
ReplyDeleteThis is what I've been saying all week about this storm. Anyway, more this afternoon to come.
As you said Scott earlier in the week take it to the bank! No big deal!
ReplyDeleteI know there will be a wintry mix but the question is how long will the wintry mix last on Sunday before it changes back over to snow
ReplyDeleteAlso getting fairly heavy snow in Ontario... 1 inch in the last half hour
ReplyDeleteChuck, you're just barely sitting on the end of this band. I cannot believe how its holding strong. Literally in the exact same spot as this morning ever-so-slowly dying. It's like a deer that's been shot tracking through the woods...
ReplyDeleteI think its down to its last pint of blood though. Pressure has steadily rose (subsiding air) and the dewpoints are very dry (12) right now.
ReplyDeleteIs this what is known as "tea kettle" snow???
ReplyDeleteNope. Tea kettle requires even colder air and perfectly clear skies and calm winds. You'll usually only see that under a strong high pressure. This is still driven by the wind, a more "classic" lake effect.
ReplyDeleteCan Rochester get tea kettle snow on those cold winter days, or does it usually stay right on the lake shore?
ReplyDeleteI don't want to say that it "can't", but tea kettle usually sits just along the shoreline.
ReplyDeleteI watch your news and weather reports first thing in the morning, and at 5:00, 6:00, and 11:00 everyday! You always talk about the weather in Monroe, Ontario, and Wayne Counties, but you never say anything about Orleans County.
ReplyDeleteI live in Orleans County and work in Monroe County. It's great to know what to expect while I'm at work, but it would even better to know what the weather is looking like here.
As it stands right now, it's snowing here, but on today Noon News, nothing was said about the Lake effect that is blasting Orleans County.
I think everyone on News 8 is great, it's the only "Local" news and weather I watch, I just wish I could truly get some kind of "local" forecast like Ontario and Wayne Counties get.
C. Howard
Albion, Orleans County
I have a friend that has a house right along the lake shore. He's talked about those tea kettle events. Apparently if you live within about 100 yards from the water it can really add up during the night, while just an additional 100 yards inland from there you can look up and see the stars with no snow falling at all.
ReplyDeleteDon't you get Buffalo's news channels out there as well? I remember folks complaining before that Buffalo's viewing area doesn't pay any attention to Orleans county either. And we already know about the NWS. You poor guys out there.
ReplyDeleteIn the defense of News 8 / Fox Rochester, I know that Scott has gone out of his way to acknowledge Orleans county. He knows that they don't get the attention they deserve. He has mentioned it before, even.
Yes we do get Buffalo news here also, and they also don't give weather reports for the area either.
ReplyDeleteDon't get me wrong, I love News 8!!! They are the only News we watch, I think they do an WONDERFUL job, I just wish we could hear a little more weather information for Orleans County.
Scott and gang keep up the GREAT work you do every day!
Buffalo news anchors and meteorologists have no personality.
ReplyDeleteThe NAM has the storm moving way to our West.
ReplyDeleteThis storm is going west and will mix in a good deal of rain. The snow totals will mostly come from localized lake snows.
ReplyDeleteWhere is Charles? Updating his blog because his prediction is not looking good a blizzard maybe with rain. Do not challenge Rochester's No.1 accurate forecaster! He said take it to the bank this will go west two days ago. Should have known to listen to a veteran rather than a University of Mississippi online weather student who has a weather center in his basement. Oh well you live and learn. Charles has been real quiet lately!
ReplyDeleteThe new GSF has the initial storm going to our west and then re-develop along the coast. It does not look like a big deal for us.
ReplyDeleteI am right here ... I was at work... you do not have to give me such a hard time for a forecast that I have made. So I was wrong. I am planning on updating my blog later tonight... just because I am wrong I am not going to just going to go away... By the way ask Scott how his forecasting went when he was in college I am sure that he was wrong at times
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