Written by: Brian Neudorff
Wow, what a cold December this has been. Average temperature for the month has been 25.5 degree which is 4.5 degrees below average. There have only been three days where the temperature was above normal and since the 14th, there has been just one day that reached the freezing mark.
I know many of you are looking at this and saying "what a waste of cold air" especially as we freeze the northeast piles up the snow. Unfortunately the news doesn't get much better as we close out 2010 and head into 2011. The cold air is going break and we will see a sizable warm-up as we close out the year and head into the New Year.
The trough we've had here in the east is going to lift and flatten out as we go into the middle of the week. Then a trough will begin to form in the west. When this happens a ridge begins to build in the west and this will allow for us to warm up. The warm up will be gradual as we go through the week. Temperatures will be in the 20s today and Tuesday. There will be a few light snow showers or flurries but nothing of real consequence. Then by Wednesday into Thursday we start to get into the low and eventually mid or even upper 30s. By Friday and Saturday temperatures will break into the 40s. Could we hit 50 by Saturday before a cold front slides through during the weekend? It's possible, I am not ready to crawl out on to that limb just yet. The good news, the heat isn't going to last but for you snow and cold lovers we won't see a repeat to December's cold.
NEW DECEMBER SNOWFALL RECORD:
As you saw from some of the comments in Bob's post we have broke the all-time snowfall record for December on Sunday. It wasn't spectacular on how we broke it. We received just 0.2" of snow on Sunday and that pushed the monthly total from 46.1" to 46.4" just 0.2" over the record of 46.2" from 2008.
The long range outlook for Jan. and Feb. do not look good. Above average temps and I fear more rain than snow. I think we had our chance with the cold air in December to get a big snowstorm but just had LES for a few areas. It is not going to be a good rest of the winter for us snow lovers and those who need to plow.
ReplyDeleteOh Well. Nothing we can do about it. I just want spring now.
ReplyDeleteIt has been snwoing all day in Victor, Henrietta. What is this from? It was not forecasted.
ReplyDeleteIf lake snows are developing off of the lake just north of Ithica then why not off of Lake Ontario tonight?
ReplyDeleteThis has been a little bit of lake effect and even a little lake enhancement. Hard to see when the radars don't pick it up. So most of the morning I was flying blind. I noticed it pick up as I was heading into the noon broadcast and also on my way home to Brighton. It is situations like these it would be nice to have a radar in Rochester or some place closer other than Buffalo.
ReplyDeleteCharles - some lake effect is not out of the question. I don't think it would amount more than a coating or a dusting. Maybe some places off Lake Ontario in Wayne county could get an inch or so but nothing of much significance or as the plow guys like to say "plowable snow"
Lake Effect Advisories issued for Wayne county 4-6 inches of snow in persistent bands probably for areas further east though right
ReplyDeleteTo the mets: Do you think Monroe county should have been issued the Advisory as well in this case? Or will this time it be legitimately Wayne county?
ReplyDeleteI don't most of the models with the overall wind direction sets up better for Wayne Co. Most importantly eastern and north eastern Wayne county. Unlike severe t'storm warning that use polygons lake effect warnings and advisories still high light the whole county even if the whole county is not entirely affected.
ReplyDeletePlus as the NWS discussion pointed out they are looking or expecting a Georgian Bay connection for east of Rochester and Monroe into parts of Wayne co, that is why the advisory is bring issued. Bob is in for Scott tonight, check back in with him later on this evening.
You know we have had bad luck but I am throwing out that the long range models on the GFS have a possible east coast storm for the 5th-8th time frame. Hey the long range GFS predicted the storm yesterday so you never know. I am sure it will change a thousand times but at least we can hope for a big one. Just trying to give the snow lovers and plow people hope.
ReplyDeleteI am hoping that the airport gets a nice band for a couple of hours that puts it up over 50 inches... although I doubt it will happen
ReplyDeleteThanks for your thoughts, Brian!
ReplyDeleteyeah, I don't see enough to get the airport up to 50" Charles, especially since the airport is more on the west side of the city. It would be nice to at least get an inch or two above the old record rather than beat it by mere fractions of an inch. But hey, i'm just excited that we beat the old record. Anything more is just bonus.
I am just saying that I would be very excited if we got to 50 inches... I would even give all my snow tonight to the airport I dont have to get any... I live in Wayne County
ReplyDeleteNo argument there, Charles. 50" would be awesome. I suppose it could happen if a burst of snow sat over the area a little longer than forecasted. Or maybe the winds won't back to west as quickly as forecasted. Oh well. One things for sure, i'll be watching that radar tonight.
ReplyDeleteHere's some interesting stats that I hope will help those snow-starved and frustrated folks put things into perspective. Below are the current snowfall stats for other cities near us:
ReplyDeleteTotal December snowfall so far:
Cleveland: 12.7"
Erie: 17.4"
Buffalo: 32.0"
Toledo: 6.0"
ROCHESTER: 46.4"
We're doing OK.
I would be excited about a Blizzard that just hit NYC, not about 1-2 inches of lake effect fluff. Sorry. It just does not excite me.
ReplyDeleteNow, tell me how much of the 46 inches was real synoptic snow??? None.
ReplyDeletewell if you want to talk about synoptic vs lake effect snow think about this... if there was not a storm system (synoptic) northeast of here then we would not have had as much lake effect snow therefore all of it was cause by a synoptic storm system
ReplyDeleteI totally understand what you are saying Charles, but you want a good synoptic storm around here just like the rest of us. When was the last time we received a blizzard like NYC just received. They had 2-3 last year and 1 already this year. We missed out on all of them. The blizzard of 93 was the last one we recived I think.
ReplyDeleteI know and I would love a nice synoptic storm followed by a long period of Lake effect snow... but I also live in a high snow from the lake effect area so I have had over 60 inches of snow so far... some areas around here have topped 70 inches of snow like Marion, Lyons, ect
ReplyDeleteI must say THANK YOU to Henry W!! I LOVE snow but like the rest of us, I am still suffering a SERIOUS jones for the one that "bombs" out over us. I understand there are others on here who hate snow and for the most part, they have kind of had their way the past few years. I remember the storm of 93. I was part of the morning show at WDNY in Dansville and it was such an exciting time takeing all the calls and broadcasting the the closings and updates. For snow lovers, we live for this stuff. My poor plow is all fizzed and sitting on the pad ready for launch if we ever get enough to hook it up. So Henry, thanks for the glimmer of hope. I have no idea how to read those maps that ya'll get into but the posts that others have posted kind of give me an idea on what ya'll are talking about. So Henry, if we get "The Big One", I will gladly drive up from Sparta and plow your drive free of charge just so i can use it!!
ReplyDeleteThe question keeps coming up, How much of December's snow was synoptic? Most of you are saying "zero" but that is not true. Let's go back to December 1st we got 3.4" of synoptic. Granted that is a mere 6% of our monthly total but it was synoptic.
ReplyDeleteHenry & the rest of the snow lovers - It's easy to find a run of the GFS or even the EURO that "nailed" the forecast for Sunday & Monday of the storm but let's not forget for 48 & 36 hours most models had that storm farther out to sea than what happened. It wasn't 24 hours before that all models caught on and shifted the forecast back to the west.
Live by the models, die by the model is a phrase that is becoming all to common in weather today and I think many of us meteorologists (I am guilty of this one every once and awhile too) are putting too much faith in the models and less in sound meteorology.
(note I am only speaking of myself and other meteorologist I have had this conversation with this does not reflect the forecast habits of Bob or Scott since I have not spoken to them about this issue and that is not always the case with my forecasts but there have been times when I got a little to "model" happy with my forecasts)
As many have said the forecast will change several times between now and Jan 5th - 8th and I think we are going to start the typical La Nina pattern with storms coming close but many could past to our west and north too.
Is this precip dropping south across the area based on the radar the lake effect that is anticipated? Because it doesn't seem to be hitting the ground.
ReplyDeleteAlmost 3 ft of snow fell in parts of NJ. Wow!! Now that is a storm. We hit 46" over a months time by neing nickel and dimed to death. They received over half of our total in one day. That is what I am talking about. That is something to get excited about.
ReplyDeleteChris I only hope we can look back around January 8th and say I was right and got lucky. Then you will have to come plow the driveway ha ha. Hope we can look back and say that glimmer of hope became a reality with a huge storm.
ReplyDeleteAmen Henry! I am ready for it. I just had my brother install a 3 inch lift on my Silverado (Klien Auto in Wyoming) and new rubber all the way around. I am just dying to hook the polw on and go! Before the lift, I had about an inch of clearance on the plow frame. Chevy's are notorious for that. Now, Its ready to push some snow. I am with ya!! Lets see if we can all enjoy a good snow storm around the 8th! You make the coffee, I'll bring the plow!! Ha Ha!
ReplyDelete