Written by: Bob MetcalfeLet me start by saying that I'm completely aware that we all have harped about not living out through 100+ hour GFS forecasts... but this one has me scratching my head. 850 temps in the 10-15 degree C range by New Year's?! WOW! The GFS and Euro have been hinting at a warmup and now they're starting to agree on timing and the strength of that warmup. If this were to verify as is, we'd be looking at a 50 degree or warmer New Year's day.
This wouldn't come in completely dry form, as a warmup of that caliber would have tons of southern US moisture with it, bringing plenty of clouds and probably even a good dose of rain. So I now say to you: enjoy the snow cover while you still can, because La Nina is making her statement!
PS: In a previous post I mentioned that the reversal of the NAO has been found to have some correlation with big Nor'Easters... what's happening in the next two days? Hmmm....
Thanks Bob great post just what the snow lovers on this blog want to hear 50's by new year and a shot about predicting a big north east storm that will give us a flurry. Way to break the will Bob. South of Rochester has nothing this winter and you throw this out not good Bob.
ReplyDeleteBob, like any meteorologist, can only inform us of what may happen. It's frustrating indeed, but he can't control that. 50's may happen not because Bob wants it to, or because he requested it, or because he wants to taunt us... but because the darned weather pattern has been about as horrible for synoptic snow as it can possibly get around here, and the models project it to continue. He has to give us a heads up on it, whether it's what we want to hear or not. So don't blame the messenger, blame this stinkin' pattern for abandoning us for the last two years.
ReplyDeleteAlso, I know Brian has mentioned that he's sick of all the negativity on here, and I understand that. But the thing is, there are A LOT of snow lovers out here. And A LOT of snow mobilers and winter sports enthusiasts. This stuff is our winter livlihoods, and we're starving down here south of the middle Genesee Valley....with no end in sight. So have a little compassion for us down here. We didn't sign up for Virginia weather. We signed up for WNY weather, and we ain't gettin' it. And we can't even blame it on global warming because it's NOT warm. It's just cold and dry...
Hope everybody had a Merry Christmas. Stay safe and enjoy the new year.
According to NWS Rochester International Airport has had 0.2 inches of snow today... why is this important??? Well the airport is 0.1 inches behind the record now... and tied for 2nd on the all time December record... Tonight we just need a measly 0.1 to tie the record
ReplyDeleteCross your fingers that we get there. We've only got about 36 more hours left for it to happen because it looks like conditions become unfavorable from Monday through the end of the month.
ReplyDeleteThe wind is due north, and yet the precip is traveling from the east to the west on radar. Wierd.
ReplyDeleteAlthough I despise snow I must agree with the above posts--let's get 0.2" more snow and break the record. After living(?) through that misery we might as well set a record. Then STOP. 50 sounds great--for a month I hope.
ReplyDeleteWe will get the record but 50" probably won't happen. Weather turns mild and nice later next week. I hope everyone had a great christmas. I am off until later next week. Scott Hetsko
ReplyDeleteSpectators to yet another blizzard on the East Coast. Same old story.
ReplyDeleteTo add insult to injury the next big storms moves to our West and wrms is into the 50's by New Years. We will lose the small snow cover we have now. I just cannot understand why we cannot get a synoptic storm around here anymore. I am not excited about hitting the monthly snowfall record because it has been nickle and dime lake fluff. Boring!!!!! I would get excited if we hit the record on sysnoptic snow.
ReplyDeleteHow many BIG snowstorms has the East Coast seen over the past 2 years? 3-4!!!. How many has Rochester seen? 0. I am not talking about Lake enhanced snows on a NE wind. I am talking true direct hits from a low. We have not had one in a long long time. The east coast has been the winners.
ReplyDeleteWe had a large snowstorm late last Feburary 27-28, 2010. 15" I believe. Not lake effect. Of course, we were 0-9 with storms prior to that.
ReplyDeletethanks HAARPS
ReplyDeleteThe indices look excellent by around January 4th. A solid negative NAO, a positive PNA and an AO that is also negative but not so negative that it will shove all the decent cold and storms well to our south. So far, though, it doesn't look like any big storms will come with it, but we'll see. If we miss a snow storm again in early January when all the indices are perfect for us, then I really don't know what it will take to ever get synoptic snow around here.
ReplyDeleteSnow flurries transitioning to very light snow "shower" activity. According to Tom Niziol, MIC of the NWS, Buffalo, he bets we'll nickel and dime our way to the record. Seems likely at this point.
ReplyDeleteplease explain what nao pna and ao is. I am trying to get this weather terminology
ReplyDeleteI have enjoyed enjoyed watching the snow fall down here in the southerntier today. It keeps coming in waves and makes me want another pot of coffee :) So I was reading old posts on the pattern changes and praying at the same time that we will get to get to see a true HEAVY snow storm before we move back south in the spring. All the talk of the Noreasters makes me want to vacation in Boston for a month so I can enjoy a good snow. I hope ya'll had a very Merry Christmas and will have a wonderful New Years!!
ReplyDeleteIn the absolute simplest of terms:
ReplyDeletePNA = Pacific North American Oscillation
NAO = North Atlantic Oscillation
AO = Arctic Oscillation
-NAO: Trough in the eastern U.S, allowing plenty of cold canadian air to pour in across our region.
+PNA: ridge builds in the west, meaning plenty of warm air bubbles up in the west. This usually leads to the opposite in the east, and the cold air arcs up over the ridge in the west and then pours down into the east. So a +PNA can help facilitate a -NAO.
-AO: Causes cold air that might otherwise be bottled up on the Arctic to spill south into the lower lattitudes.
I'm sure one of the meteorologists would be happy to explain in much better terms how these complicated patterns work. There are also great sites out there on the internet that explain these global patterns (teleconnections).
I should also caution that these indices (PNA, NAO, AO) don't always fit together nicely like lego pieces. Our global patterns are very complicated with a lot of variables that can come into play. So while these indices, and whether or not they are positive or negative, helps the experts see possible trends in our temperature, it is by no means an exact science.
ReplyDeleteWatching the BIG cities get a blizzard. Love being a spectator storm after storm. NOT!!
ReplyDeleteIt looks like we are not going to get the snow record for Decemeber
ReplyDeleteLooking at NYC's doppler radar, it seems so foreign to see widespread, general green returns on the radar, and knowing that it's all snow. I can't remember the last time that happened to WNY. And next week we'll get a big rain storm. This is just wierd.
ReplyDeleteThis is a good source for interested learners. http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/outreach/glossary.shtml
ReplyDeleteIn this science, patterns are considered when examining present observations and climatic data. The NAO and other abbreviations are data and lengthy longitudinal collections of years of recorded measurements-ie barometric pressure- ,,,In this case, the "Cold Canadian" or "Arctic Flow" (NAO) you will here mentioned this time of year when talking about LES in the downwind snow bands.
We did it!
ReplyDeleteDecember 2010 is now officially the snowiest December in recorded history!
46.3 inches of snow has fallen so far this month... hard to believe how long it took us to break the record since we crossed 45 inches but we finally did it
ReplyDelete