Written By: Scott Hetsko
Very good connection as of Monday night with Lake Huron in SW New York and with Georgian Bay here for the Rochester area. I expect this band to continue most of the night for many areas North of I-90. Heavier snow bands have been focused in Western Monroe, Orleans and NE Wayne Counties during the evening. Please send your best estimates for snow fall today and the entire event.
Very high snow ratios means the accumulation will be high in persistent bands. 4-8" in local bands by morning with a lull then a similar night expected on Tuesday. An update on the next storm coming Sunday looks to follow La Nina trend with windy, wintry mix to rain and then locally heavy lake effect snow on Monday.
Scott that stinks again with the next storm going to see rain and miss out on possible big synoptic snow from the storm. I hate rain in the winter and then the majority will get jack squat from lake effect like this event.
ReplyDeleteWell last year as the "events" got closer, the models trended eastward. So who knows, still far away! Got to worry about this storm first. next week is far away and things can, and do change. I think Scott, Bob, Brian can agree with that.
ReplyDeleteScott,
ReplyDeleteHow much has the airport officially picked up today? What's our total from this entire event so far?
Depends on where you are but airport got 8.3" yesterday and at least 4 or 5" today. New climate report comes out early in the a.m.
ReplyDeleteThis snow we get thos week will all go away with one storm Sunday going to our West. Typical!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! The Euro shows the storm way to our West while the GFS shows it going through central, NY. MNost likely the GFS will start trending towards the Euro in later runs.
ReplyDeleteLocation: Merchants and Browncroft near Rochester / Brighton line.
ReplyDelete6" on Sunday
5" as of midnight Monday night.
Storm total so far: 13"
Still snowing moderately as of this report.
Sunday is so far away moreover 06 brings the storm back on the eastward.
ReplyDeleteHendrick F are not the 0/12z runs much more reliable than the 06z run? You are right it is still 5/6 days out what is the time for when the weather gurus can say for sure what will happen with a storm? Thanks
ReplyDeleteWhat you say is right but the o6z and 18z are still giving a trend! This time it shows that the trend is eastward! But acctually all this is just speculation!
ReplyDeleteThere is no time when you can say that! If the next modell outputs would show the same for like 8 runs straight you could probably say it in like two day, but it could also change the whole time and the storm becomes nowcast. (I geuss that we will more on Frigday)
Sorry for my bad english but I am just an exchange student!
Thank-you for the information you must be good at looking at and understanding the data from the models. I am not! So, please keep us updated on the models runs and what they show the next few days. Thanks again
ReplyDeleteGood morning. Our next storm still appears that it will track over or west of Rochester. Most forecast guidance suggests this. More importantly la Nina years usually show west tracking lows.
ReplyDeleteScott
S
what happens if it goes over Rochester?
ReplyDeletelots of snow in Ontario this morning if this keeps up we will be snowed in
ReplyDeleteI'm jealous of all the high snow totals I'm seeing on here! It is so windy here (in Hilton) that it is hard to tell how much snow we have. I'm looking across at my neighbors yard and see mostly grass, but there are 18 inch snow banks in places too, so....I'm guessing we have about 5 or 6 inches TOTAL here. We've only had to shovel twice since Friday morning. The wind is the issue, making some roads quite slick.
ReplyDeleteDo you live close to the lake, M in Hilton?
ReplyDeleteI know areas right along lake Ontario have been known to experience bare grass during major lake effect events due to the strong winds coming off the lake and the snow basically overshooting the land on the immediate shore. Otherwise, it would seem that Hilton should have at least a foot along with the rest of Rochester.
Picked up ANOTHER 6" since yesterday evening here on the east side of Rochester. Total snow depth is 13" as of 9:30
ReplyDeleteWe're not too far from the lake but not right on it. We do live in a newer development that used to be open farm land, so very little trees. So yes, the wind just whips right through here!
ReplyDeleteScott,
ReplyDeleteThe 12z NAM is suggesting a potentially strong, single band plume of LES developing off Georgian Bay and connecting with Lake Ontario right through or very near Rochester tonight into Wed. AM. Do you see this as a possibility?
Your not alone M in Hilton! I am 7 miles north of Dansville up Rt 256 in Sparta and we haven't seen any! In a way, that is good as I have yet to get my new Dansville last saw a couple feet from a good snow storm. I have been in Nashville for many years and just returned. I hope maybe next weeks storm will bring us some. I will be out of work for 3 weeks with knee surgery so it would be nice to watch a good snow storm while my wife plows the driveway :)
ReplyDeleteOoops, I must have typed over some words. I meant to say that in a way, that is good as I have yet to get my new tires. Also, that I think it was 1995 or 96 that Dansville last saw a couple feet from a storm.
ReplyDeleteIt's funny how our climate works in Western New York. As you go up the Genesee Valley toward Geneseo and Dansville, the snow totals usually drop off quickly in the winter. Those areas are just too far removed from the lake to get much of a consistent effect from it like Rochester can.
ReplyDeleteOn the other hand, it seems that come summer, those same locations that don't get as much snow (Geneseo and Dansville) tend to get hit by severe thunderstorms, hail and sometimes major flooding more frequently than farther north toward Rochester. It seems the closer you get to the lake in the summer, the sunnier it gets.
GFS 12z takes about the same track that 06z took! Maybe a little bit more west, but still a good run!
ReplyDeleteWhat time do you get these new runs every 6 hours?
ReplyDeleteYes, every 6 hours. But the runs that come in at around 10:30 AM and PM are the more reliable.
ReplyDeleteActually, the latest run of the GFS has us getting into a mix of precip rather than all snow. It is shifting west and will probably shift even farther west to come closer to the euro in the coming days.
Thanks! Thus it looks pretty sure as Scott has said that this will go west of us and we will get that ugly rain then only select areas will get lack effect again. That figures!
ReplyDeleteScott what do you think about that previous post in regards to that 12z NAM about a strong band developing over the city tonight with that georgian bay connection? The projected radar looks like a pretty strong band will form over the city from 3am to 10am tomorrow. Looks like Penfield, East Rochester, Fairport and Pittsford will get hit hard in this band?
ReplyDeleteThe 12z WRF simulated radar really shows that connection w/ Georgian Bay beginning this evening. Here's the link.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/WRFRAD_12z/jloop.html
DK
ReplyDeleteWith that connection (band) what towns will be impacted with the most snow tonight in your opinion?
Brighton has 11 inches as of 230
ReplyDelete16 inches of snow in Perinton as of 3:00 today. How much snow are you expecting tonight.
ReplyDeleteIt's impossible to narrow down what may fall tonight by towns. But the good alignment and organized nature of the Georgian Bay connection as forecasted tonight does make me think we'll see high snowfall rates for awhile. Anywhere from 104 north has the best chance of some more big snows.
ReplyDeleteit looks like we are going to get a another round of snow Sunday-Monday! is it going to be worse than this time? or is it too early?
ReplyDeleteAgain, it now looks more likely that this storm will feature mixed precip (rain / frz rain / sleet) before changing to snow. We'll be on the warm side of the storm track.
ReplyDeletei do not agree i think it is more snow than wet
ReplyDeleteWell, if you watch accuweather we're going to get an epic, crippling blizzard by true definition on Sunday and Monday.
ReplyDeleteAccuweather should be called inaccuweather! They are the worst weather site ever!
ReplyDeletePeople still flock to their website. They're doing something right.
ReplyDeleteyeah but it is not just them that gets things wrong they are fairly accurate
ReplyDeleteWell we see how right they are about the blizzard this weekend!
ReplyDeleteOh the 18z was probably the worst run ever! I am afraid that the storm takes the westtrack.Scott said it already yesterday, I should have knew that he will be right.^^
ReplyDeleteBut at least we will pick up some inches tonight! :)
Channel 10 feels it will be right over or east of us. Thinking heavy snow Sunday night and Monday. It is still early will be interesting to see what the next Oz says believe that is more reliable.
ReplyDeleteI'm telling you and have been...initially snow over to mix to rain then heavy snow at the end with lake snows and bitter cold. It will be very snowy Monday and Tuesday...
ReplyDeleteTake it to the bank!
Scott
Going to take it to the bank Scott! When you say heavy snow and very snowy Monday and Tuesday put an early number on it for fun and I will not take that to the bank yet ( ha ha). Your other pal channel 13 has it tracking right over us but GJ did not say take it to the bank.
ReplyDeleteInteresting. I believe the huge amount of cold air currently over us is what is driving Ch. 10 meteorologists to forecast this as an all-snow system.
ReplyDeleteLooks like the snow band is setting up to the east of monroe county..
ReplyDelete