Moderate to heavy lake snow bands will impact Rochester and surrounding communities through Tuesday. Snowfall rates will be 1-2" an hour at times with snow accumulating over 4-8" along the thtuway to over 16" in the most persistent snows closer to the lake. A persistent WNW flow of cold air along with added moisture from a relatively nearby low with work together to keep the snow guns firing.
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Hi Scott,
ReplyDeleteWhat do you see for downtown itself? Will the Georgian Bay connection make it much farther east of the city or will it drift back over us most of the time?
Hey, who wants to give me some snow reports from your front doorstep. NWS hasn't posted anything, and I can only speak for East Irondequoit and Humboldt street. I'm very interested in spots like Greece, West Irond, Webster, and Ontario.
ReplyDelete6" North Greece/Charlotte. Snowing at 2" hour right now..
ReplyDeleteCity will do fine especially Northside. Bobby Henrietta about 2" for the is a safe bet
ReplyDeleteScott Hetsko
No precip at all at present- Ontario (East of Bear Creek). 2" total today. Diminished about Noon. Occasional wind gusts 15-20 est.
ReplyDeleteBrighton has 4 inches but i haven't measured in probably 3 hours
ReplyDeletePenfield already at about 8 inches.
ReplyDeleteWhy is everybody else so low?!
Penfield already at about 8 inches.
ReplyDeleteWhy is everybody else so low?!
That's lake effect for you! Highly variable. Since I've parked my car here at the station (city) it's accumulated about an inch and a half or so over 2 hours. From what I've seen on radar, its really Orleans county getting the heavy stuff over the last couple of hours.
ReplyDeleteOk I didnt knew that it could be that variable! I am knew to the area.
ReplyDeleteAbout 5-6 inches of snow in Perinton since this morning.
ReplyDeleteWe are closing in on 8" and its still coming down here in Newark
ReplyDeleteWNW flow will continue to pour snow into Central, Eastern Monroe as well as Western Wayne County overnight. I expect these locations to get another 4-8" by 9am tomorrow.
ReplyDeleteScott
Maybe the kid is right....she is hoping for no school...
ReplyDeleteScott is the city getting heavy snow? What are you predicting after 9 tomorrow through tomorrow night?
ReplyDeleteNot sure about the city...but out here in Newark we are still getting heavy snow. I will go out in a bit and measure....
ReplyDeleteAs of 8:30pm in Brighton I am estimating 4-5 inches and just flurries.
ReplyDeleteIts still snowing heavy and Newark has a cool 9" of the white fluffy stuff
ReplyDeleteIs the band of snow that is over Rochester going to start to sink more south?
ReplyDeleteBrian, do u think Brighton schools will have off?
ReplyDelete7" in Greece - Dewey/Stone Area
ReplyDeleteor any school in Monroe county have off tomorrow?
ReplyDeleteStay tuned tomorrow or sign up for updates on our website for school closings. Closings possible but we can't foreacst that.
ReplyDeleteScott H.
School Closings are for the south. This is NY...I say bring it on and put a plow on the buses....
ReplyDeleteJust made a new WEBCAST on our site
ReplyDeletehttp://rochesterhomepage.net/weather/weather
7-8 inches in Gananda/ Still snowing
ReplyDeleteThe snow has totally shut down, What happened?????
ReplyDeleteThe GFS for next Sunday looks interesting.
ReplyDeleteWinds turned westerly overnight, thus shutting off most of the snow except in the far eastern side of Wayne county.
ReplyDeleteHowever, as of now I'm starting to see a little bit of a band developing over the lake that would again affect ne monroe and western Wayne.
ReplyDeletePicking up slightly increasing LES in N.Ontario,Wayne County. winds have moved around here since dawn.
ReplyDeleteThat is 2 posts about something next Sunday or Monday according to the GFS. Someone this weekend said it shows a 971 mb storm bombing up on the coast? Not sure what that means or how to read the GFS learning from all the great people on this blog. Can someone fill me in please. Thanks
ReplyDeleteScott,
ReplyDeleteI remember hearing that Monday night could get pretty nasty again. Does that still look to be the case?
GFS continues to show a strong nor'easter next Sunday -Monday and now NWS is really starting to talk about it
ReplyDeleteTonight will become nasty again for the metro as the ontario band will strengthen later this afternoon. Evening commute will be tough North of I-90.
ReplyDeleteNor'Easter looking more likely early next week with us seeing at least lake enhancement if not synoptic. Too early, let's deal with lake snows we have this week first. Enjoy the day!
Scott
I have a feeling that low next week will "cut" west giving us rain changing to snow.
ReplyDeletethe latest gfs model shows a ton of snow
ReplyDeleteI prefer to go by the 12z and 0z runs. The 18z and 6z runs don't seem as reliable.
ReplyDelete0z and 12z are always preferable. They have more reliable data to use from their initialization. That's why 6/18z are always looked at as inferior.
ReplyDeleteAs for rain from that *potential* storm... its too cold for rain. It would have to swing very far northwest of us to get warm sectored and stay wet.
As for tonight, it seems that the winds have become better aligned and have connected with some added moisture which means more potential for snow. I still think that the bulk of our snow has fallen, and that 3-6" more in eastern reaches of the viewing area would be about it overnight. Some spots will have 15-18" on the ground, but those will be very limited spots.
Does it look like the trejectory will take any heavier bands over the immediate Rochester area, or do you think the city itself is pretty much done with any organized LES activity?
ReplyDeleteBob just answered your question in regards to the city...
ReplyDelete"I still think that the bulk of our snow has fallen"
Lake effect is getting less again! Looks like there is no organization!?
ReplyDeleteNext Monday COULD BE the worst case szenario for traffic!
GFS seems to be pretty sure about the event...
Very confused! It seems hard to predict the weather one day in advance let alone 7 but everyone keeps talking about next Sunday. These z runs are also confusing. Trying to learn ,sorry! Bob says the 0z and 12z are always more reliable when compared to the 6/18z and what do they 0/12z runs say about next Sunday? Please explain these different runs.Thanks
ReplyDeleteYes, but Scott also noted earlier that conditions would get nasty again in the metro (meaning Rochester, I would assume) later tonight. Snow east of Rochester into Wayne county and the band setting up in Rochester again could make a huge difference. Just trying to figure out the general consensus thinking from the mets.
ReplyDeleteLake effect now will be focused North side city along Route 104 for the most part. I don't see any significant upper air disturbances or surface troughs to enhance snow for others. North city and 104 may get a little dicey again this evening.
ReplyDeleteEURO next week is trending West with the next storm early next week. 6Z "fantasy" GFS has a blizzard over Northern Jersey. Doubt it, La Nina climo favors West track. Too early to tell of course.
Scott
When you say west track, do you mean west of us so we may end up on the "warm" side? Or just west of where it was previously showing, but still has us as all snow?
ReplyDeleteQuestions are great, but so is community! As a courteous, some of you who are asking many questions should really consider putting a name instead of just Anonymous. Food for thought :)
ReplyDeleteThere seems to be an uptick in snowfall rates across Rochester. I see on radar a band that maybe is trying to setup with a trajectory into the metro. Is this a trend toward something? or do you think it's just a temporary pulse that will fade away quickly?
ReplyDeleteConditions are turning rather nasty along the 104 in Webster. Snow has picked up considerably in the last hour.
ReplyDeleteheavy snow rates in ontario again
ReplyDeleteJust want to say welcome to some of the new people on this blog. I think people are realizing that we communicate often on this page. As for tonight, WNW flow should keep occasional snow near and North of Route 104. This is where 4" or more of fluffy snow is possible overnight and early Tuesday.
ReplyDeleteCity South to the Southern burbs probably on the order of 2-4" by noon Tuesday.
Let it snow!
Scott Hetsko
Is there still a possibility that the lake effect is picking up? Here in Penfield about 1 1/2 inches of new snow! Snow is really fluffy.
ReplyDeleteIt has been snowing lightly most of the day in Hilton, but hard to say how much has accumulated, thanks to the ever-present strong wind! The snow has stopped for now. Hope it picks up again here tonight!
ReplyDeleteBeen snowing nearly all day long on the north side of the city. I picked up about an inch of fluffy, dry snow since 8AM. Still snowing now.
ReplyDeleteAlso, I have a solid half foot on the ground on the north side of the city. That is after some settling and sublimation that took place today.
ReplyDeletei just measured and Brighton has around 6.5 and 7 inches is any more coming? no snow seems to be coming! very unorganized! seems like all the snow is near buffalo!
ReplyDeleteBand near Buffalo is connection from Huron, Georgian Bay connection should produce more snow along 104 tonight.
ReplyDeleteScotty,
ReplyDeleteThe National Weather Service has just EXTENDED the Lake Effect Snow WARNING until Wednesday!
They are expecting an additional 8 of 14 inches of snow from Rochester and east.
so will that band affect Brighton?
ReplyDeleteI know and yes it will keep snowing. We're just forecasting amounts day by day here. Yes it will hit Brighton from time to time as well but heaviest will be along Route 104
ReplyDeleteN-S roads in Central Wayne County are deteriorating. LES is intermittent, but winds appear to have increased. 21N from Paymyra-Marion border is running about half the posted speed limit.
ReplyDeleteI hope you didn't take it personally that I relayed the NWS forecast. You've been on top of this forecast and have nailed the snow amounts so far, Scott. You're the only one that projected amounts of 1 to 2 feet for the entire event in advance. The airport has officially recieved over 9" with additional to come. Your snowfall numbers are going to be right on the money. And what we get should be no surprise because channel 8 called it!
ReplyDeleteNo one can "nail" lake effect snow forecasts entirely. I appreciate your saying so but some towns may end up with more. Although I really try not to watch, I'm sure the other guys we're saying the same. NWS is the only ones who are ultra conservate.
ReplyDeleteScott
Any model updates about that possible storm next Sunday?
ReplyDeleteI lean toward a Westward solution for the Sunday-Monday storm. Wintry mix, rain then lake snow. A whole lot of wind!
ReplyDeleteSomething going unreported, maybe because it is localized. Sodus Point (central Wayne Co., on the lakeshore) has basically received no snow compared to other areas. We have about 2-3" on the ground. I work in Clyde, about 15 miles south of the lakeshore, and they have one foot. Lyons and Newark to the west have near 18". Snowfall totals drop off quickly as you leave Rose (about 6 miles north of Clyde) and head north to where it drops to almost nothing. This is the exact opposite of what normally happens!!
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ReplyDeleteHere in Ontario.... we have 12-14 inches of snow with drifts to 24 inches on the ground right now
ReplyDeleteLake effect is picking up right now! Its is starting to built up over the lake!
ReplyDeletePicked up about an inch in extreme NE brighton since 5:30. Still coming down. Large, fluffy flakes. We have 7" on the ground currently.
ReplyDeleteSince I got home from work today @ 3pm West Bloomfield has gotten @least 2 inches. Its been snowing steadily since 6pm & getting worse. The state snow plows have already gone by a few times & Im sure they will keep up the good work all night.
ReplyDeleteScott in an early post Bob Metcalf said the "potential" storm would have to swing very far nothwest to get rain he said it is to cold to not get snow. I am confused on how he sees it differently from you. Thanks
ReplyDeleteDifference in opinion I guess. 18Z GFS continues to drag the track further West so the next one will be wet, windy and white.
ReplyDeleteScott
is there a better chance of getting school closings tomorrow than today or even less in Brighton?
ReplyDeleteYou most likely have school, sorry.
ReplyDeleteAre the 0/12 z runs much more reliable than the 6/18z runs? That what was said earlier.
ReplyDeleteGFS 06z has the storm south west again! That would give us a lot of snow! And wind :o
ReplyDelete0700 Ontario (Wayne County) light-moderate snow- hard to determine based on gusty winds. Areas of limited visibility on N-S roads. Snow removal crews have done a good job on roads N of 104 corridor overnight.
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