Written by: Bob MetcalfeLet me start this post with the most important points I'm trying to get across on-air and here this evening:
1- This is NOT a major snowstorm
2- Several areas will see a few inches each day, so storm TOTALS Sun-Wed could go above a foot
3- Blowing/drifting snow could get problematic because of winds
Okay. That's in the forefront. Why are we not putting up numbers EXACTLY? Because that would be absurd to even attempt. We all know lake effect is tricky, and especially trying to forecast for a 4-day event. But as a team we've come up with the forecast above. The blue shaded areas (which if you notice isn't a majority of the area, and might not even include Metro-Rochester) are in the "favored" zones based on the forecast wind direction. Areas southeast of Lake Erie (think Jamestown) are going to get the brunt of this storm because of their upstream connection with the bigger, badder, moister (english?) Great Lakes. We won't be so lucky, so that's why only Wayne county will be the snow "winner" in the coming days.
Why will this be problematic? A. It's the first real snow we'll see all season. B. It'll be cold, so it ain't melting anytime soon. C. Again, the wind thing. If you're on 104 or further north over the coming days, or dare to drive south of Buffalo, allow a bunch of extra time and expect delays and bad driving conditions.
So for those of you that have been waiting for some snow, enjoy. For those that hate the snow, I'm sorry. Blame it on Scott, or Brian :)
I will try to answer any and all questions as best I can during my shift on Sunday!
Bob ... in your professional opinion...do you think that my predicted snow totals of 12-16 inches for lakeshore communities is completely too high... or do you think that I have a chance of being pretty on with that
ReplyDeleteWow this will be nothing! Should have known when they say potentially significant accumulations it will mean 1-3 everyday. Whoopy! The city nevr gets hit with lake effect. What I can not understand is why does this low have no moisture itself throwing lake enhanced snow into the area. Well we call wait to get excited about the next dud low that comes.
ReplyDeleteDont get down... there is a definite possibility that we will get a period of heavier snow... they are saying 2-5 inches for the blue areas... if you have the middle ground of that (3.5 inches) for 4 days you have 14 inches of snow
ReplyDeleteCharles:
ReplyDelete12"-16" is not too high at all. If you were to interpret our forecast for those zones on the high end, 20" isn't out of the question in some spots. I specifically remember an event last year where several spots along the lake in Wayne Co. got 20+ inches when we weren't really expecting it to get that high. A few hours of good 1-2"/hour snowrates, and that number becomes very easily attainable.
As for us "never getting lake effect"... you have to know we aren't in the favored spots. To get ideal fetch in Rochester, you need a northeast wind. That doesn't happen too often.
What I'm keeping my eyes on is a big transfer of moisture over the top and around this storm. If that happens, lake enhancement/synoptic snow isn't out of the question either.
Bob what time tomorrow do expect the snow to start picking up.
ReplyDeletewhat is the probability of that enhancement/synoptic type snow tom. that Bob mentioned with that low pressuring retrograding westward???????
ReplyDeleteOur futurecast shows it waking up in the late morning hours west, moving east. So let's say roundabout midday for most.
ReplyDeleteAnother note for skiers: Because of orographic (geographic) lift, the snow will stack up in Bristol as well. I spoke to some people there and they're LOVING this pattern. Opening day conditions should be pretty good there.
I'm not counting on too much synoptic snow of major impact. Might just add a 1-3" coating area wide. Most of this storm's moisture is derived from the Great Lakes more than anything else. It's not bone dry, but it isn't a soaker either as far as moisture content goes.
ReplyDeleteThanks I wanted to make sure I was not over forecasting an event and then everyone would be mad at me for getting there hopes up
ReplyDeleteHahaha, such is the life of any current or aspiring meteorologist Chuck! Part of the gig. But our philosophy here is to not over-forecast events like this. We're all Rochestarians, we can all handle a foot of snow, especially if its spread out over days.
ReplyDeleteOk..Great... speaking of futurecast..i know this is not the right forum and a lil off topic..but how is that "P"otential CLIPPER looking area-wide for the end of the week????
ReplyDeleteOh cmon! Don't wishcast via 84 hours out! I don't so much see a clipper as I do a weak midwest storm moving into our area via the Ohio Valley.
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ReplyDeleteBob I believe you said it the winds could be a concern. Do you think the winds will be sustained at 15-25 with gusts to 35mph?
ReplyDeletewhen the heavier bands set up shop.. what is the rate of snow going to be?? and being that its going to dip into the 20's what are you guys looking at in regards to ratio (fluff factor) jw?? any ideas would be greatly appreciated
ReplyDeleteI have issued my personal forecast (disclaimer this forecast has nothing to do with News 8!!!) at my personal blog for the Rochester area weather: http://rochesternyweather.blogspot.com
ReplyDeleteFluff factor should be pretty decent, especially at night. This won't be of the heavy/slushy nature like the last snow gave us. I've got to believe that 15:1 ratios are easily attainable for most of the life of this storm.
ReplyDeleteSnowing pretty good in Ontario... roads are covered and 1/2 inch of snow on driveway
ReplyDeleteCharles, how much snow You think Ontario will pick up overnight.. thanks man
ReplyDeleteovernight I am thinking 1-2 inches
ReplyDeleteLove the GFS 9 days out. 971 mb bomb off the Jersey Coast
ReplyDeleteYea right... like that will happen
ReplyDeleteWhat does that mean 971 mb bomb off the coast?
ReplyDelete971 is air pressure the lower the air pressure the stronger the storm system and likely the stronger the storm we get... 971 is a pretty strong storm system that would usually be consistent with some blizzard conditions... the location of off the Jersey coast (Just looking at the center of low pressure and not analyzing anything else like areas of high pressure and abnormal pressure gradient) would result in the blizzard being across portions of central NY
ReplyDeleteYea you are right Charles like that will happen and as you said even if it did central new york would be the one western ny is always on the outside looking in. Not many bloggers on here anymore not sure what happen to all those winter weather lovers who seemed to know alot about meterology and use to weigh in often.
ReplyDeleteWell as I said I did not take into account any outside influence also you would have strong lake interaction with a NE wind which could give Rochester a single band lake event .... also if a strong high pressure was in Ontario Canada and that 971 mb low was off the coastline then we would have very strong winds due to a tight pressure gradient.
ReplyDeleteA pretty strong lake effect snow band is located just west of Monroe county and it is slowly shifting eastward. It may make it into central Monroe county sometime overnight
ReplyDeleteThat lake effect band that I previously mentioned is affecting the following cities: Barker, Lyndonville, Albion, Medina, Holley, Churchville, Bergen, Le Roy, Batavia, Geneseo, and Mount Morris
ReplyDeleteactually if you look at GFS/X nine days out it has heavy accums all the way to BUF. As for this current system and can tell Bob is moving away from much accumulation, talking about how Rochester is sancwiched etc. Nobody else is backing down yet though. Will wait for the 11 news on the others before I lose all hope. The winds are prob too high for the south lake shore coms getting hammered. W. Irondequiot tends to get hammered when it is VERY cold and N/ to N/W winds are around 10 mph. Or of course when synoptic system and N/E wind wraps around. This system doesn't add up (yet). But the S. Shore of Ontario is probably the hardest area to forecast in all of NYS w LES. Seriously.
ReplyDeleteRochester, NY may be the most difficult city to forecast in the nation
ReplyDeleteWhy is BUffalo more in the blue zone than Rochester. This does not make sense to me on a NW wind. 1-3 per day for 4 days is nothing. Yet another dissapointment. that would give Rochester a whopping 4-7 inches for the whole whimpy event, if you can call it that. Rochester sucks for snow.
ReplyDeleteSorry, a whopping 4-12 inches. Whoopi di doo.
ReplyDeleteCan someone say nickle and dime, nickle and dime.
ReplyDeleteWe finally have cold air and there are no storms in sight. Unbelievable. Year afyet year this happens. When we finally have the cold air there are no storms. Why is that??????????????????
Do you think the LES band just west of the city will move into the city overnight?
ReplyDeleteThe NWS hoisted advisories for us for a whopping 1-2 today, 2-4 tonight and 2-4 Monday. As I said before. Whoopi Di doo. Nickle and dime stuff. No big deal. They have the snow ending during the day on Tuesday. I thought it was supposed to last through Thursday. No synoptic snows in sight. Thers is a shocker. Cold air = No storms.
ReplyDeleteWe recieved a HUGE dusting last night in Western Wayne County. I need to get out the snowblower. LOL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
ReplyDeleteI seriously cannot believe the plow is out plowing the dusting off the road. Tax money at work.
ReplyDeleteI got another 1/2 inch of snow overnight and it is still snowing this morning
ReplyDeleteIt seems the weather is hard to predict one day out? Not sure how it can predict big big snows and blizzard like conditions 9 days out as some have posted on here? Help me out with the validity.
ReplyDeleteI did not predict blizzard conditions... I said if the models were right with a 971 mb low pressure it would indicate blizzard conditions... I was answering the question of what a 971 mb pressure means... and showing how strong of a storm it is
ReplyDeleteThose that are getting down about the weather this week... just remember lake effect can get very strong in localized areas... at the order of 1-2 inches an hour and if you get in a band that is dropping that for any given length then 12 inches would not take long to get... there is a possibility of some areas getting much more then is forecasted .... just remember though that some areas will not get any
ReplyDeleteRESPONSE FROM THE NWS:
ReplyDeleteWith respect to the current forecast situation, there is by no means any neglect involved - the difference in headlines you mentioned arises from our watch/warning/advisory criteria and forecaster confidence in attaining those criteria.
For lake effect and larger-scale winter snow events, our snowfall criteria are as follows:
Warnings: are issued when 7" or more is expected in a 12 hour period, or 9" or more is expected in a 24 hour period, when that period falls within the first 24 hours or so of the forecast.
Advisories: are issued when 4" or more is expected in a 12 hour period, when that period falls within the first 24 hours or so of the forecast.
Watches: are generally issued for an event that is forecast to occur beyond the first 24 hours of the forecast, when there a 50% or greater chance of meeting the warning criteria defined above.
As you can see, for a headline to be issued, you must not only meet certain snowfall criteria, but that criteria must be met within a certain time frame of the issuance time of the forecast.
For the upcoming snowfall, we have (had) a higher confidence of the counties southeast of Lake Erie meeting warning criteria due to two factors: (1) strong terrain-driven enhancement of the snow along the Chautauqua Ridge (a ridge of higher terrain just inland from Lake Erie that can greatly enhance snowfall in northwest flow events such as this), and a higher degree of confidence in a fairly persistent upstream connection to Lake Huron. This is reflected in snowfall amounts that meet or exceed the warning criteria noted above, hence yesterday's watch issuance and this morning's upgrade to a warning.
While there will also certainly be enhanced accumulating snows southeast of Lake Ontario, the confidence in these reaching warning criteria is significantly lower. This is due to two main factors: (1) significantly less of a terrain influence than there will be southeast of Lake Erie, and (2) much greater uncertainty in the location and duration of any upstream connections to Georgian Bay - which tend to be more transient and therefore harder to predict. This is reflected in lower snowfall amounts that did not meet the watch/warning criteria specified above yesterday or this morning - therefore we held off on issuing any headlines until hoisting an advisory early this morning. While it is certainly true that some areas southeast of Lake Ontario could receive as much as 1 to 2 feet of snow by Thursday, this will likely be falling at a rate of only 2 to 4 inches every 12 hours or so - and not everybody will get 4" every 12 hours. Such an expected snowfall is far below our warning criteria and has much less of an impact than it would if it were to fall in 12-24 hours....therefore it is not deserving of a watch or warning as of this time.
Finally, I take issue with your assertion that we routinely ignore the Rochester area. The current event is a prime case in point that we do not - had you read our area forecast discussions over the past couple of days, you would have noticed that we had already noted the potential for enhanced snowfall accumulations (and possible future headlines) for areas south of Lake Ontario as early as early Friday morning....and that this potential has been pretty well covered since that time.
My latest forecast has been issued at: http://rochesternyweather.blogspot.com/ I extended the map to include Oswego to the NY/PA border
ReplyDeleteIt is disappointing hearing the weather channel talking about the lake effect snow machine will be cranking up and some areas measuring in feet while we lucky to get 2-4 inches. It is going to be along uneventful winter.
ReplyDeleteGetting heavy snow right now in ontario
ReplyDeleteWhen you say Ontario are you talking Canandaigua too
ReplyDeleteI am talking ontario, NY near webster... I do not know if it is in Canandaigua too ... I only know what is falling here
ReplyDeleteIn West Bloomfield we got 2 inches over night & its still snowing now.
ReplyDeleteAs usual....not much in Hilton. We can still see grass! It's been very lightly spitting snow for awhile, but not accumulating. Boo for this snow lover. I may have to move to the east side!
ReplyDeleteNWS along with looking at the radar..shows a definitive band in conjunction with georgian bay...does any body want to way in on where this band will set up shot..with the possibility of moderate to heavy snow in this band??
ReplyDeleteDefinitely a Georgian Bay connection which may drop several inches in NW Monroe and NE Orleans over the next several hours. Let's hear from folks who live in North Greece, Hilton, Kendall areas.
ReplyDeleteSnowing at an inch an hour here in Charlotte/ North Greece. Looks like that band is strengthening.
ReplyDeleteI think there will be locally heavy snowfall this afternoon through Monday morning with 12" or more in heaviest bands from Rochester North and East into Wayne County. Snowfall will drop off quite a bit South of I-90. Where it snows, it will snow! This is precisely why I always say, you cannot predict lake snow amounts until the snow starts falling. Snowfall totals the next couple of days will be VERY hard to pin down but I suspect that some towns will get over 24" by Wednesday in total, maybe more.
ReplyDeleteHey Scott,
ReplyDeleteThe current band stationed over northwest monroe... do u suspect it to move westward..im over here in Ontario and wanting to know if we should start seeing a more modest pace in the snowfall rate...that band is rather impressive and seems to be well aligned in training over the same areas...observations from how u see it playing out would be great man...
to the above post.. i meant eastward i said west Sorry
ReplyDeletesnow is falling Brighton,NY My guess on how much snow Brighton will get is close to one foot! does anyone disagree? or agree with me?
ReplyDeleteScott,
ReplyDeleteHow much snow do you think Fairport and Penfield will get by Tuesday morning?
4 inches so far in Ontario
ReplyDeleteEastern Monroe cry towns will get heavier snow once the sun sets. I expect 4-8" for this area tonight. 12" or more easily by Tuesday.
ReplyDeleteScott hetsko
So do you think that NWS will upgrade Monroe and Wayne to a warning soon
ReplyDeleteLocation: Near Browncroft and Merchants on the Rochester / Brigton line - Picked up 2.5" since last night. Currently snowing heavily as of this typing. Big, fluffy flakes.
ReplyDeleteScott,
ReplyDeleteWhat's going on with all the radars across the region? They all appear to be down. Solar flare knock out the satellites? lol
Should they ? Will they? We will see. Either way snow Will pile up tonight
ReplyDeleteOnce diurnal mixing ends band will increase
ReplyDeleteEastern Monroe cry towns not sure what this means? What is diurnal mixing?
ReplyDeleteNot snowing at all in Hilton, but we did finally pick up an inch and a half or so...enough to cover (most of) the grass. The kids are out playing.
ReplyDeleteOops. Cry was supposed to be cty but it auto corrected. Diurnal mixing is the mixing of air in lowest level of atmosphere (boundary layer). Lake bands always grow stronger at night under these circumstances.
ReplyDeleteIt was snowing so hard this morning in Ontario... what happened why did it stop... why did the lake band shift westward
ReplyDeleteThanks for the clarification and explanation. So you see a foot in Fairport and Pittsford by Tuesady morning?
ReplyDeleteVery heavy snow entering the city from the west. Snowfall rates at least 1" per hour.
ReplyDeleteCharles winds are NNW now but later tonight they shift WNW which will benefit you. And yes some towns like penfield and Webster could get 12" right along that rt 250 area
ReplyDeleteScott hetsko
I was just wondering why we were getting snow earlier today and now we are not .... were winds WNW earlier today?
ReplyDeleteMonroe county is in a lake effect snow warning! i can not remember the last time we were! my kids love it and are hoping for a snow day
ReplyDeleteLake effect snow warnings!!!
ReplyDeleteScott, since Brighton has a lake effect snow warning are we going to see as much as the warning says we are?
ReplyDeletejust curious but NWS doesnt have the WARNING so am i missing somthing..it still shows advisories..where is your source..so i can verify..thanks guys once nightime hits its going to start coming down good:)
ReplyDeletenever mind guys..i posted the following post. NWS is just being slow tday..i found it from another source..
ReplyDeleteGot a whopping 2 inches in Gananda. Whooo Hooo!!!!!!!
ReplyDeleteFunny. The NWS has Jamestown under a Lake effect snow Warning and they have not even had a flake yet.
ReplyDeleteGrey and clear in N.Ontario, Wayne County. Ice pellets this AM for about an hour. Nothing since about noon.
ReplyDeleteThis is going to be a flop
ReplyDeletesomebody should tell bob metcalf that the advisory had been replaced by a warning several hrs ago. I know the nat weather service site is down but it is disapointing that he didn't know this. and he keeps talking about heavy snow to the west around batavia?"? has he even looked outside? dang bob. it is snowing 1" per hr across northern monroe. and 2-4 is yur frcst? what??
ReplyDeleteOnly an inch or snow in Sodus Point. However, I talked to a friend in Auburn who says they have 8" on the ground. Must be the heavy winds are pushing the snow past us and dropping it inland. That happens a lot with a strong NW flow. North Rose, 5 miles inland from the lake, will sometimes get twice as much as here.
ReplyDelete6 inches in Gananda
ReplyDeleteIt snowed heavily for about 2 hours in Gananda and it has been on and off for the past hours.
ReplyDelete2-4???? We already surpassed that in Western Wayne county.
ReplyDeleteI love it. They still ahve lake effect snow warnings out at jamestown like they gace had all day and the still just show cloudy and no snow.
ReplyDelete