STORM UPDATE/TIMELINE

Nothing fancy here, just outlining the basics and headlines of this storm over the next few days now that we can narrow down a few things:

1.Rain arrives 5-9AM Sunday, with earlier arrival southwest of Rochester moving northeast throughout that time period. I expect a healthy dose of rain off the bat(with a minimal chance for brief periods of sleet), with lingering showers or steady light-moderate rainfall through the daylight hours.

2. I'm pretty convinced on this dry slot. Look at the storm right now and it's crystal clear. It's a well-wrapped system, and storms on this path typically give us that several hour break in the action. I expect us to quiet down from about 5-6PM Sunday through the 2-4AM timeframe Monday morning.

3. Because of the dry slot, there probably won't be much in the way of a rain/snow mix. It happens to time out so that the rain dies as it cools and then the snow starts to fly after we're well below freezing.

4. I expect the heaviest of the snow to fall later Monday through Tuesday based on lake effect parameters. I still have to see how the winds align behind the synoptic storm, but lets just say that it's not quite as well aligned with the upper lakes as the last storm. Winds are also still projected to be at a decent speed Monday and Tuesday, so blowing snow is still a concern. Windchill values have several opportunities to fall below zero during the colder parts of the day (very early, very late) Mon-Wed.

5. There WILL be areas that get a good helping of snow (around or even above a foot) but this storms lake effect activity won't be as long lasting as before. Those hardest hit spots will likely be east of Rochester in Wayne county come Tuesday as the winds align more WNW and grab moisture from upstream lakes.

Hope that's enough to whet your appetites until tomorrow!