Written By: Scott Hetsko
Low pressure will track near Toronto early Sunday afternoon which will practically insure mostly rain or rain showers from part one of this storm. No surprise in a La Nina Winter. Once a new storm takes shape over Eastern NY Sunday night, snow will begin to develop in our region.
The most significant snows will fall via lake effect once again Monday through Wednesday. Areas South and East will likely once again miss out on any real significant snowfall. Communities shaded in white on the map have the best shot at significant accumulations over the 2-3 day period. I still expect the air to be quite cold behind the storm system as there is alot of Arctic air to tap in Central Canada. Rochester proper may get similar snowfall amounts we experienced this past week but it is too early to say that for certain.
Just like this week's lake snow forecasts, we'll take each day at a time.
i have a question you said east and south will miss out but east is shaded in white?
ReplyDeleteHi Scott,
ReplyDeleteDo the models still project a NNW / NW wind flow? Or have they shifted more to a NW / WNW wind flow?
Not to answer for Scott, but I took that to mean places like Penn Yan. They're considered south and east.
ReplyDeleteExactly DK...if you didn't get much snow last week than chances are you won't again this time around.
ReplyDeleteWNW flow behind departing low.
ReplyDeleteDOES NOT A WNW FLOW MISS ROCHESTER PROPER AND MOSTLY HIT EASTERN MONROE INTO WAYNE.
ReplyDeletePittsburgh for all you Steeler fans is under a winter storm watch!
ReplyDeleteWhy the heck would Pittsburgh be under a watch? They're hundreds of miles south of us, and even WE are getting mostly rain!
ReplyDeleteI am not sure why there is not a discussion about the timing of that initial low transfering its energy to the 2nd low developing and coming up the coast. If that happens early then why would we not get at least a good amount of synoptic snow before the LES?
ReplyDeleteEither way, we're going to get into strong warm advection. By the time a transfer takes place, it will be too little too late.
ReplyDeleteThe NWS is in agreement with Scott. Here is their latest Hazardous Weather Outlook. They, once again, call out Rochester:
ReplyDeletePERIODS OF SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. LAKE EFFECT
SNOW WILL ALSO BECOME LIKELY MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR AREAS
SOUTHEAST OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO. SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND ALSO THE SOUTH SHORE
OF LAKE ONTARIO FROM THE GREATER ROCHESTER AREA TO OSWEGO COUNTY.
ELSEWHERE SOME ACCUMULATION IS LIKELY...BUT SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS
ARE NOT EXPECTED.
Winter weather advisories have been issued for our area for freezing drizzle overnight
ReplyDeleteScott,
ReplyDeleteBased on your analysis, do conditions look somewhat more favorable for decent lake effect snow developement / quality than they did at this time yesterday?
Thanks,
DK
Yes I feel that another round of prolonged lake effect along and North of the thruway.
ReplyDeleteDo you think that we will see as much snow as last time. Newark in Wayne county got 42 inches of snow
ReplyDeleteWinter Storm WATCH in effect from Cleveland to Erie from Sunday all the way through Wednesday night for totals exceeding 2 FEET of snow from lake effect.
ReplyDeleteExpect a Watch to be issued for us either Saturday or Sunday.
WHY WOULD THEY NOT PUT A WATCH UP FOR US LIKE THEY ALREADY DID FOR ERIE?
ReplyDeleteI just wanted to thank Scott and his team for answering our, sometimes, repetative questions. I know they're all very busy, but they take time out to answer our questions. Just know that it doesn't go un-noticed.
ReplyDeleteBecause it is expected to start a bit earlier there. The cold air and lake effect will kick in first in those locations. And also, you should know that Buffalo's NWS has a tendency to wait on these things a bit longer than neighboring NWS offices.
ReplyDeleteWell, the plow is fixxed...Now I just need snow in Livingston County!
ReplyDeleteCk,
ReplyDeleteSorry about your luck in Livingston county.
I visited Geneseo the other day and was shocked by how little snow they have. I'm hoping for a good synoptic (general snowfall) for you folks down there. It must be tough for snow lovers or folks who make money off of clearing the snow when you live down there hearing about feet of snow farther north.
Just an FYI about posting names on here...I notice that some are still posting as anonymous. It might be because they think they have to list a "URL" in order to put on actual name. That's what I thought at first and that's why I posted as anonymous for the longest time. But that's not the cast.
ReplyDeleteIn the drop down bar, click on "name/URL" which is the second up from the bottom. You don't need to list a URL. Just type in a name and click continue. It's that easy.
Let's all start posting names rather than anonymous. It doesn't have to be your name, it could be something creative, and you're still essentially anonymous, if that's a concern.
Good that some says something about thanks! I want to say thank you, too and I really appreciate it! :)
ReplyDeleteMoreover I think that the idea to use names is really good ,too. But why dont you use a name in your comment then?
Thanks to all of you as well. The frequency of comments has exploded the past few weeks and we're encouraged by that.
ReplyDeleteScott
Well Scott you once again are the most accurate in Rochester. Mr. " non global warming believer" over at the other station kept insisting this was going to our east all week. He has really gone downhill with his forecasts the past few years. Also our friends at 13 could not predict in advance. You are the king and the man! Keep up the great work.
ReplyDeleteI don't have any beef with the other chief meteorologists at the others stations, but I fully agree with benji. Not only is channel 8 the best in the business, but they have the greatest on air personalities. Scott, your enthusiasm for the weather, and "full of life" on air personality is a breath of fresh air to Rochester television. Just my opinion.
ReplyDeleteScott,
ReplyDeleteI notice that some of the models are trending toward the strongest cold advection and winds being to our west across Michigan. Could that hurt our chances of really good lake effect????
Charles are you changing and updating your forecast on your blog? Do you still think we are going to get what you posted last night?
ReplyDeleteI plan on updating it later tonight I will not be posting any information about my blog on here due to a request from Admin please understand that this is my only mention of it and in the future I will not be talking about my blog although it will still be updated
ReplyDeleteIt is still so frustrating that the synoptic systems still go to our West all the time and we have to rely on lake effect to give us snow. I call lake effect snow FAKE snow because it has no water in it and it compacts to nothing. You can get 20 inches of this fluff and it compacts to 5. A good snowy winter is when you receive good synoptic snow and not FAKE lake fluff that most do not receive.
ReplyDeleteRain sucks. We get a good snowpack and now it will melt away quickly.
ReplyDeleteThe NWS out of Cleveland has HEAVY SNOW for the counties bordering the lake for MONDAY - WEDNESDAY. The NWS for us has snow showers. Love it.
ReplyDeleteAs we get closer to the event I am sure that Heavy Snow will get into the forecast
ReplyDeleteThis whole storm was all hype! It was hyped since last Tuesday that is the disappointing piece. Even what they are getting in Minny is ok but they will only get 8-12. This is by no means a powerhouse storm as advertised. The lake effect will also not be as strong. Even Scott mid week had the real cold he had lows around 5 the other day that is also out the window. The whole deal is a dud!
ReplyDeleteWe're already melting quickly here in Hilton...grass in several spots. So I imagine the warmth and rain will take care of the rest. I hope that we get some more of that lake snow this time around! We're planning a sledding party for next weekend. :)
ReplyDeleteNWS is saying snow mainly on the east end of Ontario...
ReplyDeleteOFF LAKE ONTARIO...EXPECT A SIMILAR SCENARIO JUST A FEW HOURS LATER.
ReplyDeleteINITIAL WSW FLOW WILL TARGET THE TUG HILL MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...THEN THE SECONDARY TROUGH PASSAGE WILL ALLOW WINDS TO
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND PUSH LAKE EFFECT TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST SHORES MONDAY NIGHT. CURRENT GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS SUGGEST
THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW MAY BE A LITTLE TOO NORTHERLY TO ALLOW A
GEORGIAN BAY CONNECTION. GIVEN FAVORABLE TEMPS AND DEEP MOISTURE THE
POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT AGAIN BY LATER MONDAY
NIGHT INCLUDING METRO ROCHESTER.
They call out Metro Rochester in the significant snow areas
Rochesterian4life, Thank You for the happy thoughts of snow for us down in the southerntier! I do not plow for money but I do plow for fun :) I take care of the neighbors and a few friends and that is about it. I remember as a child, winters in Upstate NY held so much more snow than they do now. My girls LOVE the snow and (This is for you Scott) they ask me every night, "Is Scottie gonna say it will snow"! I do not wish for an entire winter of heavy storms but just a few good ones that cancel school and allow me to sled with my girls and build some snowmen!! As with all the other posters, I agree that News 8 is the best in Rochester! They get along and have great on air chemistry. I used to be an ABC guy but drifted off after Bill Peterson left the air. I am so happy to have a trusted source back again! Keep up the great work News 8 and Fox Rochester!
ReplyDeleteCharles, yea that doesnt start until Monday.. How many days will that last for?
ReplyDeletewill we snow any snow sunday night into monday morning?
Ted those are very good questions... They may not be able to be answered until we get into the storm
ReplyDeleteWhat are the current models suggesting? I cant help to think once it passes to our east ( the secondary low ) that we wont see 3-6" from that with some enhancment? sunday night into monday morning
ReplyDeleteTed I do not want to be a downer here but this storm is a dud! There will be very very very little snow for the Rochester area from now until the end of next week. The lake effect will be minimal just a few snow showers. All the forecasters over estimated the LES and extreme cold temperatures. You are going to have to wait for the next over hyped under achieving storm.
ReplyDeleteWhere is everyone? All have figured that this storm is not a storm. Not even one post from news 8 today. They have even figured out now that their 1 to 2 feet LES prediction for certain areas is no longer going to happen. All have finally realized the whole storm is no stronger than a clipper system! Sorry snow lovers!
ReplyDeleteThe snow is melting quickly. Good bye snow. This next system is going to suck for Rochester. The lake effect WILL NOT be like last week. Not with a Northerly flow It seems that , as usual, everything changes for the worst if you like snow.
ReplyDeleteHow many meteorologists are actually adding information or is this just opinion or a hobby? My hobby is surgery. I am heading over to the ambulatory surgery blog and give my opinion on vasectomies.
ReplyDeleteThanks for all the kind words it means a lot to me! As for the lack of input from me today, I have been busy enjoying my family. I try on weekends to distance myself from the computer a little bit. As for the weather next week, monday night and Tuesday look like the best chance for lake snow in Rochester proper. Previous posters are probably right in saying that the area will probably not see amounts like last week. That is why I always try to be cautious in forecasting events 5-7 days out. We use words like potential for that reason. Many people wishcast, we try to forecast.
ReplyDeleteScott
That is true Scott but you even have to admit this storm really is no where near what most thought it would be. You did state a few days ago on your forecast that there was going to be extreme could like 5 degrees for low and below zero WC. Also some will 1 to 2 feet of LES but it has all been a bust would you agree?
ReplyDeleteThanks Scott. You should spend time with your family. That is what is important in life. Our jobs are secondary to our faith and family.
ReplyDeleteLETS FACE IT GUYS. NONE OF US SNOW LOVERS WILL BE HAPPY UNTIL WE GET THE BIG ONE THAT WE HAVE NOT SEEN SINCE THE SUPERSTORM . BIG BLIZZARDS AND SNOWSTORMS ARE RARE ESPECIALLY IN THESE PARTS. IT SEEMS LIKE THE UPPER MIDWEST ALWAYS RECEIVES THE BIG BLIZZARDS. LAST YEAR WE MISSED STORMS TO OUR WEST AND TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. THIS YEAR SO FAR EVRY STORM HAS MISSED US TO THE WEST. WE JUST DO NOT SEE SYNOPTIC SNOWSTORMS LIKE WE USED TO. WE ALWAYS HAVE TO RELY ON FAKE LAKE EFFECT SNOW. WITHOUT LAKE EFFECT WE WOULD SEE NOTHING.
ReplyDeleteWISH I WAS IN MINNEAPLOIS. THEY HAVE REPORTED HEAVY SNOW SINCE 8 THIS MORNING.
ReplyDeleteIt's only a bust if we were STILL calling for bitter cold and 1-2 feet of snow Forecasts change and sometimes a great deal. Temps will still fall to the single digits next week. Significant lake snow still possible.
ReplyDeleteCharles you may want to update your blog again you said as we get closer to the event you were sure heavy snow will be in the forecast. Not going to happen but do not fret all were fooled by this dud.
ReplyDeleteI call it a bust in the sense that all guaranteed heavy lake snow in the metro, strong winds and negative WCs. I will state positively based on the latest data from the model runs this will not happen!
ReplyDeleteI would agree with the some of the posts. It is also disappointing when you go on the website for channels 10 and 13 and look at the forecast they still make it look like horrible conditions on Monday. You think they would update a little more than every 24 hours. It is also sad that a veteran forecaster like KW at channel 10 can be so wrong like he has been the last several years. He insisted that the track of this storm was going to our east. In fact he as he loves to say was "bullish" every night except last night of course when he off. I heard Scott use the comment you were bullish on the storm going to our westlast night I laughed so hard that I almost fell off my chair. It seems like KW is mpore concerned with making up stuff to get viewers than being accurate.
ReplyDeleteI agree with Benji. All week KW was saying the storm was going to our East and that we would definatley be in the snow area. That all changed last night with JN of channel 10 when he said it looks like now that we will see rain.
ReplyDeleteTHE NWS OUT OF CLEVELAND STILL HAS WINTER STORM WATCHES UP FOR COUNTIES BOREDERING LAKE ERIE FOR 1-2 FEET PLUS OF SNOW. WHY WOULD IT BE ANY DIFFERENT FOR US OR ARE THEY BEHIND THE BALL THIS TIME IN UPDATING THEIR FORECAST?
ReplyDeleteSNOW DEPTH IN ROCHESTER SHOWS 7 INCHES AFTER 25 INCHES OF SNOW FELL LAST WEEK. AMAZING HOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHRINKS TO NOTHING. SYNOPTIC SNOW IS SO MUCH BETTER.
ReplyDeleteNew model runs are slowly showing this storm becoming more of the aformentioned "dud" as many have said in regards to major snowfall.
ReplyDeleteSomeone above asked about Sunday into Monday: I actually think we're going to get dry-slotted (meaning dry air gets wrapped into the center of the storm) which really makes it difficult for ANY type of precipitation. Expect precip in mainly rain form almost all day Sunday with that changeover not occurring until 3-8am Monday. I wouldn't get excited about waking up to several new inches of snow on Monday.
As for the steering winds I've looked at, they are also unimpressive in the sense that the upstream connection to the upper Great Lakes will be barely there. That was a key reason for most of our snow from this last storm. If you subtract that, you're going to kill snow totals. I don't even see truly good alignment until late Monday into Tuesday.
Oh well. It is what it is. Typical the way things go around here. We go from 1-2 feet to maybe a few inches. I love winter, but I hate it since we get one dissappointment after another. Minneapolis has had heavy snow for 8 hours straight. 1-2 feet possible there. REAL synoptic snow, not fake lake effect. We can only dream of that type of snow.
ReplyDeleteI still wouldn't discount over a foot of snow North Tuesday and Wednesday. -16 to -20C air at that time = lake snows. Models SUCK at predicting that stuff.
ReplyDeleteScott Hetsko
and remember that I've been forecasting rain/mix from the actual storm since Wednesday at least. Just a reminder...
ReplyDeleteScott
Scott. You should be awarded an honorary doctorate in psych for all the counseling
ReplyDeleteScott you are doing a great job forecasting. Dont let the wishcasters get to you
ReplyDeleteYea Scott, I have to give you major kudos for sticking to your guns on the rain / snow mix event...Even as the GFS had forecasted a mostly snow event for several runs. You said, nope, not buying it. You use your expertise and experience to predict weather, not just rely soley on computer models like so many meteorologists are starting to do.
ReplyDeleteAs for lake effect, I still think at least a foot city north seems reasonable from the entire event. I also see that the NWS has been hinting at eventually issuing a Lake Effect Snow Watch for Monroe county. Probably by tomorrow afternoon.
Sorry to rain on your parade (no pun intended) all you snow lovers, but there are many people out here that could care less about a huge storm. I do realize there are those that depend on snow for a living, but for me, it means less shoveling, easier drives into work, and less chances of ice dams building on the roof of the house. Bring on the warmth!
ReplyDeleteno bring on the snow!!!!!!
ReplyDeleteSorry to rain on YOUR parade, but since you live in western new york, it would do your mind and body good to learn to appreciate things about the snow. Our region is known for cold and snow...so why live here and choose to be miserable with it? It's like living in Phoenix and living your life hating the heat and arid landscape. Some people choose to spend the winter with the blinds closed on their windows, and curse every time they have to go outside in the snow. I feel sorry for them because they don't know how to appreciate the little things in the world around them, and love the things that are bigger than us. Our snow builds character. No sense in being a negative person and hating the wonder of the environment that we live in. It's not healthy.
ReplyDelete