Written by: Brian Neudorff
Although we did not get the snow in Rochester that we thought we would see there was a quick burst of snow associated with the wind shift early this morning. That was enough to put down a slick coating to an inch across metro Rochester. That has lead to messy and slick road conditions. Many area roadways like 390, 490 and 590 have been at a stand still or crawl due to accidents.
I was surprised that the NWS in Buffalo canceled all warnings and advisories across Monroe and Orleans county. I think we could still warrant a lake effect snow advisory.
A Lake Effect Snow Advisory is issued for Great Lakes induced snowfall in western and central New York totaling between 4 and 7 inches in a 12 hour period. I am going 2 to 5 inches for portions of Monroe and Orleans county today and I think we could see another 2 to 4 inches tonight. Although not square in the criteria it is close enough in my opinion.
Good morning :) probably 5-6" here this morning (and this is after shoveling before bed last night)
ReplyDeleteTotal snow for Gananda since it began. 20 inches approx.
ReplyDeleteDo we see any synoptic snows coming our way. Forget abot the Noreaster. It looks like that is going way out to sea.
ReplyDeleteKW at channel 10 last night said that areas North of the thruway would see another 6-16 inches by Thursday morning. What a range!!!!!!!!!
ReplyDeleteI did say the potential is there for bigger snow tonight and early Thursday and I still do think it's possible. Not for everyone but city North and East along Route 104 and Wayne County. Locally significant snow will fall in these areas tonight. 500 mb vort will spin in overnight which has a history of enhancing snow for a time.
ReplyDeleteI'm glad I pulled back last night though. Let's see some new data and assess tonight's weather this afternoon.
Scott Hetsko
You meteorologists have got to be pulling your hair out keeping track of these constantly oscillating bands of lake effect. I swear, the minute I see a trend in the radar, I refresh it and it's going another way. Can't imagine having to forecast the unpredictable beast.
ReplyDeleteI was just looking at the latest 12z NAM for tonight. It does look like it may get "interesting" later this evening into the overnight with snow blossoming along the south shore of the lake from the thruway north. It does have NE monroe county east into Wayne under the heaviest, but what interests me is how this almost looks like a period of general snow for all north of the thruway for a period later tonight.
ReplyDeleteAll we need is 6" to make history!
Another 6 to 8 inches overnight in Lyons....still snowing.
ReplyDeleteYep, that would be consistent with what Scott just said about snow being enhanced possibly later tonight.
ReplyDeleteHey Scott, how much snow do you have at your house compared to the city?
Nothing will happen tonight guys this so called event is done.
ReplyDeleteI disagree that nothing will happen. I agree with Brian in his post that we should probably have an Advisory issued. The wierd thing is that the NWS has an advisory for Ithaca until Thursday. I realize Wayne county will likely be the big snow winner through the end of the week with a WNW wind. But I don't understand what trajectory they are predicting to think Ithaca will get Advisory criteria LES. Wouldn't that have to be a sharp NW wind? And if so, it's just goofy to have that area under an advisory, but only have headlines from Wayne county eastward.
ReplyDeleteRochesterian4life - Ithaca is out of a different weather office than Rochester. They may talk to one another but when it comes to their forecast zones they are independent.
ReplyDeleteI have to say I find enjoyment from those who come in here and make blanket statements like
"Nothing will happen tonight guys this so called event is done. "
or the event or forecast was a bust. What do you have to back it up? Just curious. I find it amusing that someone said this snow was a bust. Now I don't know where they live or how much snow they got but so far Rochester has been in the 12-20" range Bob posted Sunday and has been the forecast since then. So far we've done pretty well. There will always be a town or two that get more or less than the range we start with. That's the nature of this job.
I do appreciate all of you and your comments and posts. Thank you.
I knocked off about 10 inches of fresh snow on the car this morning. Oh and this is in Newark....We seem to be getting pounded each night. But, I say keep it coming...this is NY and we love it.
ReplyDeleteWell said, Brian.
ReplyDeleteMy personal favorite comment was the person who said last night that the Rochester metro would "miss it again." I had to chuckle to myself on that one considering the Rochester metro has been buried by the snow in the last two weeks. The airport has over 40" and you can bet the city to the north got just as much or even more. We haven't missed the snow - we've done quite well in fact.
Great job again to the weather team. You guys get to forecast in one of the most forecast challenging areas of the country for a highly populated area. It's just a shame that so many people choose to be so ignorant to how much complexity actually goes into weather forecasting. I get frustrated when I hear ignorant comments about weather - and I'm not a meteorologist. I can only imagine how frustrating it must get to the actual experts.
where's my like button when I need it :)
ReplyDeleteThe news 8 team does and has done an awesome job! The problem is the other stations they are not very good and keep saying the wrong forecasts when they know things have changed. Perfect example was last night they all had a good amount forecasted for the city but things changed and Scott was the only to make the change. Now, Scott is also the only one who said tonight and tomorrow morning is when the city will get hit hard again however he did say I think several times. So, what Scott says later I will trust he IS Rochester's most accurate forecaster!
ReplyDeleteBy the way most of my information or predictions come from reviewing Charles's blog. He has been pretty accurate and that is why it appears he has been asked to keep his information off this blog. Keep up the good work Charles!
ReplyDeleteHAHA....By the way, to the last commenter.... Charles is a KID with no degree whatsoever. It's sort of creepy that you're basing your forecast off some random kid's blog rather than getting it from a real authority. Whatever floats your boat, wierdo.
ReplyDeleteI could be "pretty accurate" too if I just paraphrased NWS forecast discussions and called it my weather blog. Seriously, there are only three true meteorologists, and their names are Scott, Brian and Bob. Stop promoting that kids toy blog on here. It's starting to make me think it's actually Charles going under "anonymous" and pretending to be somebody else in order to continue to promote his little hobby.
ReplyDeleteWhy does the lake effect alwas shut down during the day?
ReplyDeleteWhy is the snow falling in SW NY on a NW wind, but we are sunny with nothing falling on a NW wind?
ReplyDeleteFor starters, we are not on a NW wind. We are on a west wind.
ReplyDeletehey scott we in naples have a around 6 inches and still coming down
ReplyDeleteAny updates News 8/fox on what might happen tonight? Any new data, forecasts, snow forecast ect?
ReplyDeleteWinds at the upper level atmosphere are not going to be strong enough to produce any significant snow and no GB connection.
ReplyDeleteChannel 10 and 13 have very little amounts tonight and tomorrow for north of 90
ReplyDelete