Written By: Scott Hetsko
BUSTED!!!!
Yep I said it, I was wrong on the lake snows last night but I still expect our best shot to be with the next boundary overnight and early Sunday. A few inches of lake effect looks likely in towns North of I-90 at that time. Very cold and dry air will follow Sunday afternoon and evening with Arctic high pressure. Lake effect may be VERY limited Sunday night, within 1 mile of the lake or so. Still expected well below zero air to start Monday.
As for next week, that storm will miss Western NY as has been the storm track much of this Winter. Sorry snow fans!
NWS has posted a LE snow watch from tomorrow morning through Sat. morning. They say as much as 2 feet in some locations.....here we go again!
ReplyDeleteIt will be interesting to see if a fresh snow pack and clear skies can surpass the amazing -7 degree reading we got on MLK day!? Plus, the models have been hinting for the past couple days now for something pretty impressive brewing for the east coast around next friday or so. Obviously it's way too early to tell and speculating at this point would be straight immature, but its definitely something to watch!
ReplyDeleteno watch for monroe
ReplyDeleteNope, no Watch. And after reading the forecast discussion, the NWS apparently is completely indifferent about the ROC area for snow. Why then did they issue a Hazardous Weather Outlook for our county, only to remove it? They don't make any sense. I'm not buying it. I'm listing to Scott.
ReplyDeleteMore evidence of the National Weather Service changing with the wind...
ReplyDeleteMy explanation is above. I think at least some advisory criteria snow from the city North is likely Friday night and early Saturday.
ReplyDeleteScott
Scott,
ReplyDeleteIs this one of those cases where the slightest difference in wind vector could mean the difference between ROC picking up a trace to picking up 10 inches? I see there is the potential for thundersnow and VERY high snowfall rates with this band, too. I take it that portion of the band won't drop across Rochester at any point?
Just saw your post above. Thanks, Scott!
ReplyDeleteI'm going with Scott on this one. Advisories can be issued in more of a short notice, so I fully expect the NWS will issue an Advisory by tomorrow for Rochester.
ReplyDeleteBMD the two storms next week on possibly Weds. and Fri. are both showing as usual way to far east of us. Even if it move 200 miles we would not get big snow. Frustrating all far off the coast can not get one to right through central Pa. as a track. I will keep being positive and hoping.
ReplyDeleteSorry that is a typo Henry W.
ReplyDeleteDo not want to be a complainer but LES is again not a big deal for most. Only wayne and those close to lake up north get anything worthwhile. generally the city and suburbs around the city get very little. Same old same old!
ReplyDeleteNo S Sherlock -we have all heard it from you over and over - assume it is the same person - if you dont like it move!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
ReplyDeleteHi Scott. I'm wondering if you could tell me what causes that wierd donut hole appearance of the precipitation on the WSR-88D radar? It always seems to center around where the actual radar site is in Buffalo when an approaching synoptic system approaches.
ReplyDeleteThanks
Steve from Rochester
Channel 10 and 13 say a couple of inches for Rochester, but up to 2ft for areas east of Wayne County.
ReplyDeleteGuess what- Another storm will miss us next Tuesday and Wednesday. This is getting too funny.
ReplyDeleteGood for channel 10 and 13, Mr. Anonymous. I think you have the wrong blog, however. This is Channel 8 / Fox Rochester's weather blog. I really don't care what other channels say, and if I did, it doesn't belong on here, in my opinion.
ReplyDeleteHey Anonymous...really, you bring forecasts from other stations here, beat it.
ReplyDeleteHey Scott just wondering if you still feel that the low Monday morning could be well below zero. You are the only who I see predicting that temperature for Monday morning. The NWS is not even close that. Also your map appears to look like to metro could get significant LES do you still feel that way or is it wayne county and areas close to the lake. One more thought you are the best at longe range because you just do not look at just models what do you think about the possible storms next Wed- Fri time frame?
ReplyDeleteHere's my latest thinking. No doubt that we'll be subzero MON AM. Arctic high is overhead and Northern NY will see incredible cold air (-30 to -40) I'm surprised no one else sees that.
ReplyDeleteAs for lake snow, I expect Wayne Cty to get the worst but ROC has a decent shot Sat night and Sunday on a more favorable 310-330 (NNW) wind direction with next vort diving South. My forecast map tonight will extend through Sunday with ROC included in plowable snow.
Long range I doubt that we'll be hit by any coastal low. Track too far East given where upper air trough should be placed at that time.
Scott
Wow, can't imagine what -30 or -40 would even feel like. I'm gonna guess this won't be the best weekend to spend in the Adirondacks, unless you're going for that fresh Siberia feel...
ReplyDeleteFirst off I want to say thanks to Scott for mentioning the 'Dacks on the webcast... I'll let you guys know what -30s feel like. I've slept in -16 degree weather but never -30 so this should really put my gear to the test. We'll be at 2600ft and out of the brunt of the wind, so it could be worse. I'd imagine some summits to have windchill values in the -70s up in the high peaks region, at the very least near -60. I'll be near Johnsburg so it won't be quite as rough...but still, I'm going through my checklist several times - cannot forget ANYTHING.
ReplyDeleteI think Scott is spot on with that cold for Monday morning. It could be dangerously cold air temps. I would not be surprised to see negative double digits in the city Monday morning. I also think that storm for Tues- Wed time frame is moving more westerly however I think central ny will get hit thus we should get some snow. Just my opinion. Still early have to keep tabs on the models just saw the recent ones have moved more westerly. Keep trying to stay positive for a big storm.
ReplyDeleteScott and channel 8 called it again! Lake Effect Snow Advisory is in effect through Saturday morning for Monroe County with UP TO 8 inches tonight and additional snow accumulations tomorrow. Here we go!
ReplyDeleteYeah DK but Scott is thinking the city and surrounding suburbs will get snow Saturday night into Sunday not tonight.
ReplyDeleteBoy you know it will not happen but if that 6z GFS would verify we would get good snow but it will change.
ReplyDeleteWell, the Advisory is up from 1PM TODAY through tomorrow morning. Scott mentioned from the beginning that he thought Advisory criteria snow was possible for our area late Friday into Saturday. It wasn't until last night that he ADDED the possibility of a round of snow Saturday night into Sunday, as well. As I recall, he never ruled out accumulating snow tonight.
ReplyDeletethe older I get the more the cold hurts!! cant we get back to avg !
ReplyDeleteKeep an eye on that area of intense snow dropping toward the SE from Niagara county and Lake Ontario. That band could mean business and create a mess for the ROC metro around mid afternoon.
ReplyDeleteDK and what do you think about the cold for Monday morning? Also looks like the more reliable 12z GFS moved more east again what else is new!
ReplyDeleteMonday morning still likes down right frigid, especially with any clearing overnight. Channel 8's forecast looks on target for morning lows this weekend into Monday AM.
ReplyDeleteLake Effect Snow WARNING now in effect for Rochester. The Advisory has been upgraded!
ReplyDeleteYeah, but they have a warning for us with 1-3 tonight and 1-3 tomorrow???????????? That is not warning criteria.
ReplyDeleteHello Scott do you have an update (about the LES, bitter cold, possible storm next week) based on new data?
ReplyDeleteWhat does everyone think the chances of no city schools on Monday...? How cold do the windchills need to be for something like that?
ReplyDeleteI believe for the city, the windchills have to be around 20 below zero and for the suburbs its around 25 below. Its possible, but the models are not showing much in the way of windy conditions.
ReplyDeleteWith a temperature of -5F, you would need about an 8 MPH wind speed to bring windchills down to -20. Winds might be quite calm under high pressure Monday morning, but it might come close to that -20 mark IF we do indeed make it down to -5 or so.
ReplyDeleteAfternoon, Scott. It seems the band has backed a bit to the north. In fact, the core of the band has lifted offshore of all the lake Ontario bordering counties from Monroe westward. Is there another developement farther south expected later this evening that isn't showing on radar yet?
ReplyDeleteIts been snowing steady in Orleans county but its like theres a wall at the orleans/monroe county line. as soon as the snow hits Monroe county is just fizzles away to nothing. whats up with that?
ReplyDeleteSteady snow in Sodus area. Another 3" fell so far today.
ReplyDeleteI really don't expect that band to dip into Monroe county until later evening. Interesting to watch how much snow will fall Sunday evening as more favorable NNW develop.
ReplyDeleteScott
What time you thinking Scott?
ReplyDeleteOvernight hours for a few inches of snowfall in Rochester area.
ReplyDeleteScott
That band keeps moving North. Starting to wounder why they even have a warning out for monroe county.
ReplyDeleteWhere's the snow? I put the plow on and cleared the driveway when we got back from the hospital this afternoon. I wad surprised that the southerntier had snow when I got home. When is the next shot at good snow for those out of reach of the LES??
ReplyDeleteScott,
ReplyDeleteWhy can't the snow over Orleans county make it any farther east? It's been continually developing right over that county for a couple hours now, and just fizzles at the Monroe county line.
Again do not count on much snow from LES. As Scott says it is zip code snow and areas will be small. Interested in that cold Monday morning could be really cold. It looks like that high is going to block the storm from coming more northwest next week. If it can get out who knows maybe we can get a break and get in the action. I have seen a few models give central and western Pa. double digit snow.
ReplyDeleteWell sure, but it hasn't even made it into the county at all. And we're under an all out Warning right now. I don't see how it will ever make it anywhere near Rochester if it can't make it past the county line without fizzling. It's like Rochester is one big bug zapper to the snow. It reaches a certain point, and Poof, gone.
ReplyDeleteI will say this storm next week again will more than likely be to far east but there will be a MAJOR snowstorm somewhere. The models have been showing a real biggie and that was ten days ago on the GFS. At that time we were in the sweet spot who knows maybe it will end up that way. Wish casting yes but I am staying positive.
ReplyDeleteIm not being critical but, I think the NWS botched this forecast big time.
ReplyDeleteVERY HEAVY SNOW spreading into downtown Rochester right now. When the winds gust up, it's like a whiteout.
ReplyDeleteScott how long is it gonna snow like this???
All headlines for Monroe county have been dropped. There is no longer so much as an Advisory anymore.
ReplyDeleteSo let me get this straight...the NWS issues an Advisory this morning. They then raise the Advisory to a full out Warning...only to drop all headlines entirely before we even get any measurable snow. It's official...the NWS has no idea what they are doing over there in Buffalo.
I couldn't agree more! Weird that they dropped all headlines particularly when it's snowing at a pretty decent clip in ROC now. I'm sticking with my forecast.
ReplyDeleteScott
It is all very confusing!
ReplyDeletewhy the heck don't we get anymore snow storms here??? So frustrating to see areas to the East and South get hit and we here..esp Farmington hardly get any lake snow either! I remember the years we used to see snow storms all the time.....what gives??? -Sad in Farmington
ReplyDeleteNo snow so far in Gananda.
ReplyDeleteThis is the discussion out of Albany for next weeks storm we will miss. This looks to be the most dissappointing miss yet as we watch areas East of us get buried:
ReplyDeleteWE KEPT THE PCPN...AS SNOW...AND IF IT MATERIALIZES WE MAY NEED YARD STICKS TO MEASURE THE SNOWFALL...SINCE A TREMENDOUS
MOISTURE FETCH IS EXPECTED FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC. AN ANOMALOUS LOW LEVEL JET IS LIKELY TO FORM FROM THE E/NE ACCORDING TO ECMWF AT 50-70 KTS.
We are not going to get anywhere near 4-8 inches by 3pm tomorrow. It has not snowed in Gananda all nith at it is almost 1am.
ReplyDeleteNothing in Newark. So if were going to get 4-8 it better start soon.
ReplyDeleteChannel 8 was very wrong this time. Sorry Scott. No snow overnight in Gananda. Clear as can be. The NWS was correct in dropping the warnings and advisories for us.
ReplyDeleteGive Scott a break. I mean look at how sudden and on-a-whim the NWS issued, then dropped their advisories yesterday. Scott's said it before, and he'll say it again.... this is exactly the issue with forecasting LES! :)
ReplyDeleteSo... Scott you mentioned the possibility of a better wind direction for LES tonight. Still looking that way? Thanks!
I recall Scott saying once that he has seen many impressive lake effect snow bands get squashed by dry air working in. This is exactly what happened. Pesky dry air worked into the flow and fizzled the band. It's harder to predict than it would seem. Just goes to show that forecasting the weather isn't just about looking at the radar and checking the temperature. There's a lot of moving pieces at play here that are well beyond the scope of the average person.
ReplyDeleteI was wondering the same thing Adam.
ReplyDeleteStorm might be impressive in power next week. Im not giving up on it just yet.
DK, what do you think about tonight?
ReplyDeleteJust need a shift west of 100 miles and we will get the next storm. Do not give up hope we are due for a surprise and big storm this may be it! Still not consensus with all models but it is more westerly than the past ones on most models however still not far enough but things will not be exactly known until Monday. As I said last night someone is going to get a monster storm.
ReplyDeleteWell, we are due for one Henry!!! We all know that it is OUR TURN for a big one. I like the slight westerly shift. I hope that it continues to trend that way for all of us snow lovers, weather enthusiasts, and guys that plow for a living. I wonder if we will see some LES today off of Erie? Lillian is doing great. She slept all night and continues to eat better too :)
ReplyDeleteAwesome news Chris!
ReplyDeleteGuys, we are going to miss the storm next week. We will be spectators as usual to a monster storm. Areas in Eastern, NY will get buried by 1-2 feet while we watch yet again. It is what it is. If Scott says we are going to miss it, we are going to miss it.
ReplyDeleteThanks David and Henry too for the Well wishes towards Lillian. She has been thru a lot for a 4 month old. She turned 4 months today. I will email you a picture of her David. I can do the same for you Henry but I need your email address. Now, about this potential monster next week. Henry said we need about a 100 mile shift to the West. If this is truly going to be as big as I have read, we should get SOMETHING out of it shouldn't we? I guess Monday will have more perspective for us eh??
ReplyDeleteScott how come when you are wrong it is never in our favor? Rochester winters suck!
ReplyDeleteI know Scott said so but I am still not willing to throw out that the next storm is out of our reach. Call me crazy or optomistic but western Pa and western NY still in play. I will remain positive do think the cold and LES is nothing and not sure it is going to get that cold as predicted Monday morning do think that will be a bust.
ReplyDeleteAgreed Henry! I am keeping positive as well. There are two different tracks that it can take. Off the coast, or further inland. Obviously, we want the the Low to track inland so that we get hammered!! Now, It is just "hurry up and wait" until we know more about which way this one is headed.
ReplyDeleteI would like to see what models Scott is looking at to just disregard the next storm all together ! I have not seen one definitively predict the exact track yet ???
ReplyDeleteNext week's storm will be WELL to our east. Another miss. Your best bet is to just expect all nor'easters to miss us. That way you won't be so let down when they all do.
ReplyDeleteAs for tonight, looks like a couple inches by Sunday morning, with another couple inches during the day. Scott's 4-8 inch forecast by end of Sunday looks good to me!
Not so sure about that WELL to the east of us. Still a great deal of uncertainty.
ReplyDeleteDK, Is that 4-8 only for I90 north or will I see that down my way?
ReplyDeleteI agree with Henry . It is still too far out to say for sure
ReplyDeleteHere's the problem WNY is having with the synoptic snow. If you look at the pattern we have been stuck in for basically this whole winter, its been down right cold, hence why the lakes have been so active. Since its been so cold, the boundary that these lows like to ride have either been too far south or too far east. So if we can just get some normal temps back in our area, we will increase our chances drastically for a good snow storm. Just my thoughts there. And that storm is going to be way to far east next week. Bottom line! But no need to give up just yet, still a long way to go this winter.
ReplyDeleteChris, definitely send me a picture when you get a chance.
ReplyDeleteI am hanging on to some hope for next weeks storm. If things dont start trending west, in agreement, then I will hang it up.
All the talk out of the weather offices in the NE is that the models are now trending more East. It will be a miss guys. Miss, miss, miss
ReplyDeleteYep I am throwing in the towel we will sit back and be spectators once again. But we still have February and March maybe we will get lucky one time.
ReplyDeleteProbably just around an inch south of the 90. More like 3 to 4 around the city of Rochester, and then closer to 6 or 7 from route 104 north to the lake shore.
ReplyDeleteThe paper this morning talked about how we were supposed to receive 8-12 inches of snow last night and closer to the lake over a foot. We got nothing. Everyone was talking about it today asking what happened to the snow and how all the Meteorologists were wrong.
ReplyDeleteNickle and dime all winter long.
ReplyDeleteI am not so sure the storm next week is not coming our way based on current information.
ReplyDeleteScott I know you said no storm but many of the models have moved this storm west west today even to the point of mix concerns in Albany. There is also talk that Pittsburgh could get heavy snow I would think if they possibly could would we not also be in that path?
ReplyDeleteWhere is everyone I got about 4-5 inches east of the city last night. How cold will it get tonight and some have giving up on that storm not sure that is a done deal yet. people should be awake
ReplyDeleteGood Morning Guy's! Just a dusting down my way last night. Henry, I am glad to read you have not given up. I am going to go look at some of the latest runs after I get a cup of coffee in me.
ReplyDeleteEveryone thinks I am nuts but this storm is tracking west and I am not going to be surprised if we see plowable snow form it. I am staying positive and I still believe this is going to be a BIG storm for many areas!
ReplyDeleteI never said that you are nuts Henry! I am happy to see a Westerly movement. Now we need to keep the faith and pray that it stays on that movement! How about that cold air? I stepped out this morning and it was a huge difference since yesterday!!
ReplyDeleteAs long as it stays cold and we get a little bit of snow to keep the snowmobile trails open, I'm fine with it. But I would take a general area wide snowfall of 3-6,5-6,6-8 inches on top of what we got now! The weather channel has snow on Tuesday? I saw on nooa weather that Saturday, there is higher chance for widespread snow.
ReplyDeleteHenry, not sure what models you are looking at, but every model I see has a more Easterly track than yesterday's runs. We will not see much at all.
ReplyDeleteThe weather channel hs 2 tracks and both are too far east to have any impact here.
ReplyDeleteThe next Saturday system shows going to our North and West only brushing us with a little light snow. Same story. Either to our South and East or our North and West.
ReplyDeleteYep 12z GFS ugly went way east almost out to sea I give up storms are not happening in the flower city!
ReplyDeleteNope, we should be used to it by now though. Just the nickle and dime stuff that gives us our yearly average by winters end.
ReplyDeleteSnow lovers don't lose hope, we are still days away and the models are all over the place. 12Z euro has the low inland over Philly!
ReplyDeleteI am not giving up until the storm is over and done. I always hope for a good storm. Yes, they never make it but I keep on keeping on. Perhaps one of these storms will one day find its way to us. We still have a few days for this one to make up it's mind.
ReplyDeleteRichie, what 12z are you looking at. The 12z euro shows it south of Long Island.
ReplyDelete