Written by: Bob MetcalfeWhen's a warm-up coming? We've been asked about a million times recently. And every time (at least for me) I reply with "I don't see it for at least a week." The truth is, I could probably even say the next 10 days.
Its interesting to note that the NAO is actually positive right now, and is only forecast to drop slightly to around 0 over the next week or so, despite the cold. What this means is that the textbook "Greenland block" high that is usually responsible for long term cold in the northeast isn't present. At least not in textbook form. Another reason why we can say weather patterns are CORRELATED but not GUARANTEED when different atmospheric signals are present. Unfortunately, Mother Nature doesn't like stereotypes, which makes our jobs a heckuva lot more interesting!
So the images above are the forecast for Saturday, Jan 29 (10 days from now), and what you see is the 500mb height anomalies. This gives us an idea as to model thinking for the overall upper-level pattern down the road. Blue anomalies are cold, orange are warm. Yup, look where we are, smack-dab in the middle of a blue anomaly meaning the same old relentless east coast cold that has been everpresent all month long, even 10 days from now. The scary part is how closely correlated the GFS and Euro are even that far out, meaning more confidence.
What I've learned about looking at this product is that in order to rid the cold certain things have to happen. I know this isn't "technical" but I want to make it so the laymen reading out there can understand. We want the orange to gather or connect north of the area, in northern Canada for a few day period. This basically "heats" the cold source to our north. You heat that up, you lose the potential for seriously cold air here. That would also break up the route the cold travels, as the pattern wouldn't allow for a consistent flooding of the arctic air into the northeast. Especially on the left image, I see those gears starting to turn. So maybe, just maybe, we can talk about a new more normal pattern come early February.
That is ok, since we are not getting any storms it might as well be warm.
ReplyDeleteI thought La Nina winters were supposed to be very up and down in terms of temperature...? What is causing this La Nina winter to be different?
ReplyDeleteLast year's el nino was supposed to bring warmth, as well. It didn't. A big part of the reason is the negative AO. It has been dominating the pattern not just across the northeast US, but the entire northern hemisphere. The freezing cold in Florida two winters in a row, and the crippling snowstorms in Europe. There is a lot of speculation out there about that's causing this AO to go so negative for so long. From low solar activity to increased high lattitude volcanoes in the last couple years...to even global warming. But whatever is causing it, it is responsible for stifling the effects of el nino and la nina.
ReplyDeleteBob, Brian or Scott,
ReplyDeleteWhat are your thoughts on lake effect in the wake of tomorrow night's system? I offered my very UNprofessional thoughts on it, but whether I actually know what i'm talking about half the time is sometimes in question lol.
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ReplyDeleteWhat has happened to Charles Wachael?
ReplyDeleteTo the mets:
ReplyDeleteHow are things looking for lake effect in our area Friday into Saturday? The NWS notes that a possibly significant event could develope "along the entire south shore" of lake Ontario, yet they also note a westerly flow, which seems to controdict that location of the lake effect, as westerly usually targets the Tug Hill. What's the deal with this setup?
Here's the Hazardous Weather Outlook issued this morning. Rochester might get hit by this one again:
ReplyDeleteLAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL DEVELOP DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AND CONTINUE
INTO SATURDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT AREAS ALONG THE WESTERN LAKE
ONTARIO SHORELINE FROM NIAGARA COUNTY EASTWARD TO MONROE COUNTY
COULD SEE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS
Looks like instability will be near extreme with this event, given the very cold air about 5,000 feet up. I have a feeling that somebody within about 5 miles from the shoreline is going to get a couple FEET out of this. It looks like the cutoff once you get away from the lake will be sharp. Question is whether it makes it to the city. I will say that according to the Binghamton NWS, they expect the band to make it through and even drop SOUTH of Syracuse. If you draw a line from Syracuse over to Niagara county, Rochester is right in the thick of it. I'd really love to know the meteorologist's thoughs on this. Sounds like a potentially big one.
ReplyDeleteWhat about Wayne County. They stop at Monroe which is unusual.
ReplyDeleteLAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL DEVELOP DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AND CONTINUEINTO SATURDAY. SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE FROM WAYNE
ReplyDeleteCOUNTY EAST THROUGH OSWEGO COUNTY.
There is a HWS out for all counties bordering the lake.
ReplyDeletelooks like we're getting the silent treatment from all the meteorologists.
ReplyDeleteThey are busy getting all the details ready.
ReplyDeleteHang in there bloggers. Lots of serious weather data to parce. I plan a detailed update by 4 p.m. I will tell you that I expect lake snow to be significant along and near I-90 tomorrow night into Saturday a.m. High ratios should mean over 12" for many in lake belts. Incredible cold follows with widespread sub zero temps Monday and Tuesday a.m.s
ReplyDeleteScott
Hi Guys! Where is the snow? Lillian's surgery went well but she has stopped eating so it will be another night at Strong. Have you ever seen a 6' 2" guy sleep in a hospital crib? I am sore! I just wanted to let ya'll know she did greay and looks great. Now, when are we gonna get some snow???
ReplyDeleteChris, I am so glad everything went well. I only have one girl, (5months) its amazing how fast your world changes. Seeing them sick, or in pain can be too much to handle sometimes. It almost freaks me out. Your a good man and father keeping your little girl comfortable and sleeping in crib with her. I hope everything continues to go well and you get home soon! God Bless
ReplyDeleteThanks Scott for going through all the data. I have looked at the models for next week and it is amazing that they all have any storm way east of us. Can not believe that one can not turn westerly and put us in a favorable spot but they are far off the coast possibly one Wed. and Friday. Maybe it will change I will stay positive. Chris glad things went well for your daughter.
ReplyDeleteThanks for the update, Scott. We must remind you of a bunch of impatient kids at school that keep asking when we can go outside for recess LOL.
ReplyDelete