Written By: Scott Hetsko
67.5" of snow has fallen this season at the airport in Rochester. Syracuse has recorded 104.7" as of this morning! More area wide snow is expected with a quick moving low tracking through the mid Atlantic Thursday night and Friday. The models will continue to waffle a bit but let me tell you, don't live run by run! You simply cannot accurately forecast that way. If we were to forecast like that, we'd be promoting "Rochester's LEAST ACCURATE forecast" Well, we probably wouldn't be promoting that :)
Here's how I see the next one and it's exactly what Brian said in the last post. Look for a general 2-4" snowfall with the potential for 6" or more from the I-81 corridor Eastward. Some modest lake snows may develop on the back side of that low Friday night but with a subsidence inversion dropping through the atmosphere, don't expect a lot.
when will we get a warmup?
ReplyDeleteScott, What time is this suppose to start Thursday night?
ReplyDelete2-4 BIG WHOPPDI DOO
ReplyDeleteI will gladly take 2-4". It can cover up these grass spots I see in my yard....I hope.
ReplyDeleteIt is really sad that we can not get a large synoptic snowfall. I mean one storm of over 10 inches in two plus years it is pretty discouraging for snow lovers. I know we got over 60 inches this year but that is not for everyone in Rochester.
ReplyDeleteScott,
ReplyDeleteDo you think we'll wake up to a fresh snow cover in ROC by tomorrow morning? If so, how much are you thinking?
It is such garbage NYC and Maine significant snow again it is so frustrating when last night we were in the sweet spot but once again it goes east. I am done hoping!
ReplyDeleteI feel your pain, Anonymous. Last night's 0z NAM was the first time all winter that I let myself get overly excited about a potentially MAJOR snowstorm. But, I was brought back to reality when the same thing happened that almost always happens when a storm dares to look like it might come at us on a computer model...it veers somewhere else, and that other location realizes the big snow as we watch from the side lines...growing ever more jaded by the winter season. I keep trying to put it into perspective. We are TWO FEET above normal for this time of the winter. That's impressive. But it just hasn't felt like it. I miss the days of watching the radar light up from left to right, up and down with dark green reflectivity. I don't care what anybody at the NWS claims....it used to happen a lot more often each winter.
ReplyDeleteYep and what's most annoying is that you can't even blame it on global warming because it's not like we haven't been cold. Although, Hansen might argue that global warming is causing colder winters. ugghh i'm so confused by this whole global warming thing. Am I spending three times the amount of money on energy efficient products that break in half the time to help WARM our winters or to help make the colder?
ReplyDeleteI agree it is very frustrating. I think it is time to just wait until March and hope we can get one classic winter March storm. That is what I am going to do mail in the rest of January and February. I will hope for a March blockbuster.
ReplyDeleteSnowing pretty good down here in Sparta fellas!!!
ReplyDeleteNot up here. We need some snow in Sparta, then I can walk around quietly and shoot rabbits.
ReplyDeleteDavid any updates on any possible storms? Again far away but there looks like the potential for a monster storm somewhere probable east and NE at the end of month?
ReplyDeleteBernard, After the NAM last night and the changes today my spirits are shot. Im going out of town next weekend, hopefully when I get back we will have some stuff brewing.
ReplyDeleteOk sorry to bother you and that did stink about the changes hope you have a good trip. I also hope when you get back that we do get a good one brewing within the next two weeks that plasters us!
ReplyDeleteBernard, you not bothering me buddy. I hope we get a good one brewing too! Who knows thou about Thursday/Friday. The lake in a wild card, countless times it surprises us with higher totals, maybe this can happen again.
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ReplyDeleteThat's right David!! Always ready for some Bunny Hunting. We are still getting steady snow down here. Going to make an interesting trip into the city at 4:30 in the morning. Have a safe trip David!! Bring on the snow!!
ReplyDeleteHey DK or David did not the O6z NAM look further west on the last run? I think so but not sure if that will impact us just wondering what your thoughts are?
ReplyDeleteBelow is an exerpt from the NWS forecast discussion about the Thursday through Friday night timeframe. It sounds like once the winds veer to NW and bitterly cold air floods into the region, we may have a brief but intense period of lake effect snow somewhere around the Rochester metro:
ReplyDeleteSNOWFALL ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING WAVE SHOULD BE GENERALLY IN THE
1-3"/2-4" RANGE...ALTHOUGH ANY LAKE ENHANCEMENT/UPSLOPE COULD TIP
LOCAL AMOUNTS EAST OF THE LAKES INTO THE ADVISORY RANGE. ONCE THE
ARCTIC FRONT PASSES THERE WILL BE A QUICK TRANSITION TO NORTHWEST
FLOW LAKE EFFECT...LAKE INDUCED CAPE VALUES JUMP TO OVER 500 J/KG
BEHIND THE FRONT. MOISTURE LOOKS SUFFICIENT DURING THE DAY FRIDAY
BUT DOES TEND TO DRY OUT FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES INTO
THE REGION FAIRLY QUICKLY.
They do note that drying will occur, but it appears initially, as capes jump (basically, lots of instability) and moisture is still sufficient, that brief window could give us a quick shot of lake enhanced / effect snow. And I suspect that even as the air dries, we'll still see snow hold on in narrow bands, just not as widespread or intense. But with good snow to liquid ratios in the very cold air late Friday into Saturday, The snow can pile up fairly easily. So there's SOME hope for you guys.
ReplyDeleteAnd in terms of the actual storm Thursday night into Friday.....Not impressed.
The latest NAM shows a very intense band of lake effect setting up Friday evening very near Rochester metro. It is also sharper with the cold air surging in. This might be one to watch for our area. Not only could it turn very snowy, but down right BITTERLY cold.
ReplyDeleteI too hope for big storms and lots of snow...what i don't understand is the negative energy from some people on here. Its like they think it is someones fault we don't get more snow and the storms miss us. if you are jeelous of the east coast them move there. The weather will do what it wants when it wants. I will still hold out hope for a big one this winter, but in the meantime i'm not going to act all pissed on here and be a downer. just my two sense. I enjoy all of your comments. some of you sound very knowledgeable on this stuff and it is very interesting.
ReplyDeleteThis may be random but I wanted to note how much I appreciate this blog. When I want to know what's REALLY going on, I come here (and check model runs) and watch the debates unfold. The most accurate seems to always be somewhere in between what most are saying, except for Scott who seems to be spot on 98% of the time. I reeeally wish there was a blog like this for the adirondack mountains, I'll be camping there this weekend where it may be in the negative 25 - 30 range at times. While longing for a more specific and accurate forecast for that area, I'm inclined to appreciate what we have here in the ROC. Thanks Scott and the news 8 team, and also the others like DK, David etc. for making this blog my go-to place for Rochester weather.
ReplyDeleteI think, like myself, people are just frustrated with us missing every single storm. We are not blaming anyone just venting to each other.
ReplyDeleteWe will get some storms. And I know its got to be even more frustrating for people south of the the thruway. I live 1/4 mile from the lake in North Greece and I still have a solid 12-14" in my yard. If we get 2-4 from the storm Thursday night, and I agree with DK about the lake effect behind it, wouldnt be surprised of areas North of 104 seeing some decent numbers.
ReplyDeleteThis blog is a lot of fun, I really enjoy the winter and talking about storms. Lets be thankful its cold so the precip falls as snow. Nothing worse than a winter in the upper 30's and low 40's blahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh
ReplyDeleteI agree w/ David about people South of the thruway b/c I am one of those people :( I live in the Northern Finger Lakes & even tho its such a pretty area of NY we hardly ever get the snow like the people north of the thruway get.
ReplyDeleteIm orginally from Clyde & Im used to getting all the snow! I get phone calls, texts, & emails from my family & friends who still live in Clyde rubbing it in my face that they just got 2 feet of snow. Or maybe they are complaining, but in my eyes they are bragging! LoL
I think we all enjoy looking at long range models so lets keep it going. If people want to call it "wish-casting" complain or whatever. This is the fun of winter. So if you dont like it, dont read what I have to say.
ReplyDeleteThe Euro has an interesting double barrel low going up the coast at hour 168 on the Euro. Low on the coast, and a secondary, still very strong low riding up into western PA. Timeframe looks to be Tuesday/Wednesday. Still VERY far away but something we can keep an eye on and have some fun watching.
The NWS notes that this storm that the euro is projecting for next week could actually bring us a mixed bag of precip. Yep, that's right, even with a low possibly tracking to our south and east, yet close enough to give us precip, we still might get a mix of rain and snow. Just watch this be the one storm that actually tracks west as forecasted and doesn't shift east when we actually need it to.
ReplyDeleteKent. its way to far away to even think its going to hit us, let alone precip. type. Something to watch and see what happens.
ReplyDeleteDavid I agree we have to wait and see. It was interesting that another local weather guy said on his broadcast we have to keep an eye on a possible east coast storm next Tuesday-Wednesday. Do you know what the GFS says at hour 168?
ReplyDelete