Tuesday, January 18

MILD TODAY, BUT MORE SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT

Written by: Brian Neudorff

There has been a lot of conversation about the snow Thursday into Friday. Here is my take on the synoptic snow Thursday night into Friday. This is not a major event. The 00z NAM was printing out around 6 inches and the 00z GFS had near 3 inches. The 00z run of the Euro looks similar to the 06z GFS.

If I had to put a range I would saw it could be more like 2 to 4 inches of synoptic to maybe 3 to 6 inches if you go with the NAM. More than likely we will see some lake enhancement that could help boost the amounts. This should be a quick moving system but there could also be some lake effect with all the cold coming in on Friday.

I agree with Scott, although I wasn't checking my email during the afternoon, not a lot of talk about he cold. Although we hit subzero lows last year in January we never had them as cold as yesterday morning. More cold air is likely into the weekend. Saturday and Sunday morning could feature cold morning and there is a possibility of subzero lows again.

21 comments:

  1. DavidJanuary 18, 2011 at 9:55 AM

    Thanks for the post Brian, you know we are impatient on here. haha

    Agree with everything on your post. After the storm moves through Thursday night 2-6?, might be a seamless transition into some lake effect Friday like we saw with last weeks storm. None the less, something to look forward to. Maybe we can get lucky and this storm will move little more North and West. hehe

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  2. DKJanuary 18, 2011 at 10:02 AM

    The 12z NAM isn't nearly as aggressive as last night's run that I showed. Although, it hasn't completely abandoned the idea of a decent shot of steady snow for our area Thursday night into Fri, either. So I agree with Brian. I think 2-4 or 3-6 with maybe a little extra from lake enhancement makes most sense at this time range. Maybe just enough to warrant a snow Advisory, but probably nothing more. I'm hoping it changes, but gotta be real and not wishcast.

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  3. UnknownJanuary 18, 2011 at 10:34 AM

    Just once this year, I wish we would get "The Big One" :)

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  4. DavidJanuary 18, 2011 at 10:47 AM

    Plenty of timeeeeeee still Chris..

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  5. UnknownJanuary 18, 2011 at 10:56 AM

    Yes, I know but I want it now!!!! LOL

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  6. AnonymousJanuary 18, 2011 at 11:05 AM

    My wife always says that but I don't think she is talking about snow

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  7. AnonymousJanuary 18, 2011 at 11:13 AM

    12z GFS just in looks even weaker yet. Seems that just as things were trending toward more snow, they're now trending back toward less snow as we get closer. Just can't get anything significant to materialize around here.

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  8. AndrewJanuary 18, 2011 at 11:25 AM

    It is good to be right again. Plowers you will get your 3 inches maybe. Back to hibernation and wait for the next false hope for the big one on this blog. Enjoy

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  9. DavidJanuary 18, 2011 at 11:29 AM

    Was in a pretty good mood going to bed last night knowing things might be going in our favor. But these last few runs are really disheartening.

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  10. AnonymousJanuary 18, 2011 at 11:38 AM

    any idea of when the temps will start to warm a bit to get rid of this snow?

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  11. UnknownJanuary 18, 2011 at 11:41 AM

    It's NY..Somewhere around June :)

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  12. AnonymousJanuary 18, 2011 at 11:45 AM

    The way things are currently set up in the atmosphere(jet stream) storms will continue to go far east.

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  13. UnknownJanuary 18, 2011 at 11:48 AM

    That is the going trend. It was the same last winter too. Back home in TN, they have had nice snow this year. I hope it continues next year when I get back.

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  14. AnonymousJanuary 18, 2011 at 11:54 AM

    The 12z GFS looks really weak and this one is the most valid. Precipitation way east. Not sure we are going to get anything according to that model.

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  15. DavidJanuary 18, 2011 at 12:27 PM

    This sucks.

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  16. DavidJanuary 18, 2011 at 12:28 PM

    Maybe as fast as they've changed today, they will change back as the event gets closer. As Scott says, live by the models, die by the models.

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  17. UnknownJanuary 18, 2011 at 1:00 PM

    Atta boy David! As Henry always says....stay positive!! Let's see how they look later tonight. I was watching TAX earlier and they showed a good amount of show right up the Ohio valley Thursday then switched to Friday and it seemed to vanish! Let's hope it swings back into play. If not, there is always next Tuesday-Wednesday to keep an eye on.

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  18. AnonymousJanuary 18, 2011 at 1:05 PM

    Sorry David that model thing is long range models this is only two days away. It is gone and it does stink.

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  19. AnonymousJanuary 18, 2011 at 1:17 PM

    We were so close yesterday too. Everything was looking good then poof.

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  20. Henry W.January 18, 2011 at 2:31 PM

    I am stil not ready to throw in the towel. I think there GFS amd NAM will veer back to a more westerly solution tomorrow.

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  21. DavidJanuary 18, 2011 at 3:02 PM

    I hope your right Henry, I still think even with this eastern solution we've seen today, a 3-6inch range is still reasonable.

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