Written by: Brian Neudorff
As Bob mentioned this next system is not a big deal and the more I look it looks even less of an issue. As the new storm forms off the east coast most of the moisture will go with it. There is a weak system coming out of the upper Midwest but there is just not enough lift or moisture to support much precipitation.
The NAM which is the first precipitation cross section found at coolwx.com shows only about .05" of rain in the afternoon. Very little now in the way of freezing rain or sleet. The GFS doesn't have any rain mostly freezing precip, and all of that seems mostly snow.
I am starting to think that our shot at the mid to upper 30s will be in jeopardy thanks to all the cold air we have seen this morning, today and into tonight. I have learned over the years that as dense and heavy cold air is it really takes a lot to move it out and warm up. Especially in situations like this where we had such a cold morning and all this very cold air in place. It will be messy in spots out to our east tomorrow morning, but for western New York, tomorrow morning won't be anything to worry about.
What was the 6-8 inches mentioned last night? Is that back end lake effect on a northerly moist wind for tuesday night wednesday?
ReplyDeleteTomorrow's phantom "thaw" will do little to nothing to melt any of our snow. Then that's it for who knows how long. Lots more rounds of snow to come that will continue to add up on our existing snowpack. I wouldn't be surprised if we have a 12 to 15 inch snowpack across the ROC metro by a week or two from now. Hopefully we don't start seeing roof collapses.
ReplyDeleteAnd by the way, when I say 12 to 15 inches...I don't mean fluffed up snowpack. I'm talking AFTER compaction. I would imagine places out in Wayne county already have that, and will likely be closer to 2 or 3 FEET by then. Great news for the snow mobilers, but IF we were to finally get a huge snowstorm somewhere along the line this month before any thaws, it would probably not take much to put us in some sort of a snow emergency just from the amount of snow removal needed to keep the city moving. Ok that's worse case scenerio, of course, but it's not that often that we have all these little snow events stack on top of each other without any meaningful thaw.
ReplyDeleteDK, is there going to be any snow this week, lake effect after the low on the coast starts spinning moist northerly winds across the lake?
ReplyDeleteI know Bob mentioned maybe 6-8" what is the timeframe for that?
DK not sure what you are talking about. We do not have that much snow currently in the metro and I am not sure what you are talking about in regards to little snow events and a huge snowstorm because I see neither within the next ten days. Thus I am little confused by your post it will be quiet in Western NY for at least the next two weeks.
ReplyDeleteI said "IF" with the big snowstorm. No evidence of anything huge. And the Rochester airport (where records are officially kept for the National Weather Service) has an 8" snowpack on the ground. Won't take much to get a few more inches on top of that.
ReplyDeleteAnd yes, there will be a couple to several opportunities for snow after tomorrow. Stuff that will continue to pile up little by little for the next 7-10 days or more.
By the way, where is everybody getting this idea that we're not going to get any snow this week? Although I don't see anything major, this week looks fairly active...snow Tuesday night into Wed. Then another System possible Thursday into Friday. And then continued cold with snow chances next week.
ReplyDeleteAgree 100% with you DK....
ReplyDeleteAll I want at a minimum is 2-3inch snows to keep plowing. Anything more than that, bonus!
ReplyDeleteGood call on that system tracking up the middle of the country thursday/friday DK! It's looking like some potent moisture is diving down from the rockies and joining with another area of low pressure originating from the gulf. Models are still having some ambiguity, but it should definitely be something to pay attention to the next couple of days. And Andrew, you need to give up on the "Winter is going to be a bust in Western New York this year" attitude. I don't mind you disagreeing with the forecasts and outlooks, but the fact that you have no data or evidence to back it up is frankly annoying!
ReplyDeleteHave provided data just look at the models nothing will hit western NY Thursday/Friday not sure what data you are using? No moderate to significant storms/snowfalls in the next two weeks. I gave you data about the last low I was pretty good with the path and snow totals with the path from the LP. However, I will admit that I did miss as did many with the over achieving lake enhancement of the system. Time will tell with Thursday/Friday and the next few weeks.
ReplyDeleteThur. / Friday event has peeked my interest....
ReplyDeleteMaybe something we can plow David?
ReplyDeleteThere does look like something coming Thursday on the models. I think DK is on to something. It looks like we could be in the path but is it snow or rain DK?
ReplyDeleteBernard, It is definitely snow. If the Low out of the West, phases with the low out of the gulf, it might get interesting. Western PA, Western NY might have a bulls-eye over it for a decent snow storm.
ReplyDeleteAgain do not want to be the bearer of bad news but not seeing what DK and David are seeing for Thursday-Friday. It is nothing a quick clipper giving little snow that is what I see on the model runs.
ReplyDeleteAgain not sure what you are looking at must be accuweather because not one local guy said anything about the potential for significant snow on their forecast. If it phases it will be off the coast and east like it always is for the winter. Stop throwing out false hope we have had one strom 11 inches in over two years. Remember we can not wish cast we have to give accurate information. Bob still also trying to figure out where you and some got 6-8 by Thursday?
ReplyDeleteAndrew must be the old "Anonymous" negative negative. People on this board who bitch and complain make it no fun.
ReplyDeleteAndrew, I never said it would be a huge storm, I said it would be interesting. People like me, Dk, Chris and many others enjoy watching weather, seeing what different storms do, possible scenarios, ect. Im sorry If we don't forecast a 3ft blizzard and break it down to the exact second it starts and finishes. Were approaching 100inches of snow already, what else do you want?
ReplyDeleteAndrew, go to google, type in weather models, click one of the choices, look at the thursday/friday timeframe, and you will see what everyone is talking about. Its pretty hard to miss!
ReplyDeleteI'm shocked no one has even mentioned how bitterly cold it was this am! Rochester -7, Watertown -24, Penn Yan -7
ReplyDeleteIt is amazing what net radiational cooling can produce with a fresh snowpack! See you on TV tomorrow.
Scott
We want that white stuff Scott.. haha And not the kind you get on Ave. D
ReplyDeleteScott what is your opinion about a snow event on Thursday-Friday?
ReplyDeleteHas anyone noticed the beautiful moon dog tonight? That is what my grandmother always called the white ring around the moon. I guess it beats the hell out of a ring around yur anus! Lame, I know! But step outside and check it out. Living in the country, I do not have the city lights so it is quite a sight! I am interested in the late week even as well.
ReplyDeleteHey Chris.... Im curious to see the NAM tomorrow morning.... as usual a lot of scenarios but we will know more tomorrow..
ReplyDeleteAlright I see it the potential for 3 inches so all you plowers can get out there make your money for 3 inches. I am in agreement you have a shot at the 3 but that is about it so you will be money making machines! I will return when we get a huge storm so I guess I will be back next winter. I am not talking 3 feet but an 12-16 inch forecast would be nice we use to get those several years ago at least once a winter. Still waiting for that 6-8 inch prediction explanantion from Bob and David last night?
ReplyDeleteI never made the prediction. Bob said 6-8", I was simply asking about it.
ReplyDeleteI get such a kick out of Andrew! "Us Plowers" Well, Andrew, US Plowers will probably bring home more in one day from that three inches that you will for the week! So yes, we will be "Money making Machines" See ya next winter big guy!
ReplyDeleteBefore I hibernate until the big one comes I owe David an apology it was not you it was DK who supported the 6-8. Not sure where he and Bob are? Yes Chris I am sure you will make a lot of money capitalism at its finest. You are making alot of money for plowing 3 inches of snow you gotta love it! You certainly do not go to sleep at night to the Donna Sumner tune "I work hard for my money". I am happy for you and will hope the big event Thursday brings three inches in the morning and then another 3 in the evening then you can rip off people twice.
ReplyDeleteDitto Chris
ReplyDeleteI would chime in that in my opinion Rochester will get at least several inches of synoptic snow Thursday night into Friday. Think that the heavier stuff will be a tad east of us but that is not a given. Hope it shifts a tad west and we get the bullseye! Just my opinion based on models at the current time. The NAM and 12z GFS tomorrow will tell us alot. Chris hope things go well with your daughter this week.
ReplyDeleteThere's not enough consensus among the models...and also not enough consistency among individual models for the mets to get the public all excited about anything later in the week. And anyway, even if we get a solid 6-10 inches out of it, that isn't significant by Rochester standards. But I think by Tomorrow or Wednesday you might start to hear more talk among the mets about a potential "plowable" snowfall thursday into Fri. That is provided that the models continue their trends with the system edging closer to our area. I never said we were in for any huge snow storms. My earlier post was a hypothetical. I'm more impressed by how deep our snowpack may become in general by a week or so with no major thaws and several opportunities for snow....some bigger than others.
ReplyDeleteAs for data regarding Thursday/Friday's possible storm? Here's the very latest nightly run of the NAM for late Thursday night. The trend of this precip is from south to north. So you can't say there's no support for something "interesting" in a few days:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/00/images/nam_ref_078m.gif
And before anyone asks...this would be ALL SNOW.
ReplyDeleteHenry, DK, Chris, totally agree with all of you.
ReplyDeleteWas checking out some of the NWS discussions for other cities and a bunch of them were talking about the storm taking a little more western shift like DK was mentioning.
I don't rip then off, they call me. Plus my rate is $25 per driveway no matter where I drive. But a good day is 40-50 drives. If you concider that a rip off then so be it. I am sure David fell out of his chair when he read this as he plows! Oh, and plowing is just a second job that I do on a as needed basis actually. I work a full 40-50 hour in the city. I concider plowing my "tool fund" as my third job, or "hobby" would be remodeling. Which again, I am lower per bid as not to "rip people off". So I am always buying tools. Drives my wife nuts! I am not a huge fan of Donna Summer all though some of her stuff is okay. I am more of a Dave Matthews type of guy. But all in all, I do work hard for my money :) After all, I have three girls to raise and Lord knows what fun that will be as girls want and need EVERYTHING! So no hard feelings Andrew and if you ever need a deck built, tile done, siding or roofing..of hey, PLOWING..I won't rip ya off! Happy Hibernating! Henry, Good evening my friend. I look forward to the next couple day's runs. I will bring the laptop to the hospital to check in after Lillian's surgery.
ReplyDeleteThanks for backing me up DK
ReplyDeleteDK. Thanks for posting that link. That is going to be interesting to watch! Henry, Thank You for the well wishes for Lillian. We are a nervous wreck. I will pop in and let ya'll know how it went. I will need a sedative when they take her back!
ReplyDeleteAndrew, first of all, thanks for the Apology. Second of all, If your plowing 3inches, or 10inches. Its hard ass work! 20-30 hour shifts my friend. Some nights I get home and I cant sleep for hours because I have the shakes from the coffee and being so alert. Be thankful your roads and parking lots are clear. Not to mention during a 30 hour shift you have people on the roads cutting you off, passing you in snow with 2inches between your 20k pound truck/loader and their little hybrid. Thousands of dollars at stake friend. Like Chris, I do it for side money and because I enjoy it. I own 2 business, I pay more money in taxes than you make in 3 years combined. So don't you dare say we are ripping people off.
ReplyDeleteP.S. Chris, my wife and I have been to over 50 Dave Matthews Concerts all over the country. From Seattle, to Connecticut, to Florida.
who is this bitter Andrew guy? Why do you even come on this blog? I have yet to see why you even enjoy being on here?
ReplyDeleteFeast your eyes on this. This is the model showing Friday!!!! Now tell me there's no data for a major storm... This has Rochester getting buried!
ReplyDeletehttp://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/00/images/nam_pcp_084m.gif
Pretty amazing models. We will see what the models show tomorrow. Hopefully we will get some more consensus.
ReplyDeleteSnowFan, lets hope this doesn't change! I know I speak for all of us on here who love snow!! I am awaiting to see what Bob has to say in a few minutes!!
ReplyDeleteHey Chris, since we are ripping people off plowing, just curious, how much gas do you burn while plowing? Ive burned 80+ gallons of diesel on 20+hour trips. 80gal x 3.50 gallon = $280.00 Plowing is all profittttt. haha ya right
ReplyDeleteChris,
ReplyDeleteI just want to commend you for handling Andrew's nasty and rude comments with calm and class. Every blog has its one super negative individual who tries to inflict his/her negativity and nastiness on others at every chance. I think it's fair to say that Andrew has proven to serve as that person for this blog.
It's perfectly fine to have strong opinions and feelings. But there's no need to turn mean spirited on others. We're all just a bunch of weather enthusiasts and / or simply folks who have various reasons to follow the weather closely. It's fun to look out over the horizon for interesting weather. Let's just have fun on here. Debate and inquiry can make for great discussions, too. But let's try to keep the nasty, personal attacks out, please.
Not to agree with Mr. Negative Andrew but the latest models have this storm way east of us. That would be models that came out after your discussion last night. The Oz and 6z of the GFS and other models. I think I am reading them right but I hope I am wrong. Like to see Andrew eat crow.
ReplyDeleteYep, the GFS hasn't fallen in line with the much more aggressive NAM model that I showed last evening. Considering the GFS is much more powerful in terms of its grasp of the physics of the weather pattern in the longer range, I can't help but take it seriously. I don't think we'll get clobbered like the NAM is trying to suggest, but it's at least some data out there that says we will. My guess is that we'll have a compromise between the two in the end and get just a modest snow event. But a measureable snow nonetheless.
ReplyDeleteOne more thing of note though...the Navy NOGAPS forecast model also has us getting slammed by snow. So we now have at least two models showing this. Problem is...they're the least reliable this far out. We need to see the Euro and GFS begin to agree before any of this means much.
Agree DK, I think we will see some snow out of this, 2-4+ but we got to keep an eye on the models next few days, a slight shift North and/or west puts us in the hot seat.
ReplyDeleteWish Channel 8 would say something about thur/fri
ReplyDeleteBrian,
ReplyDeleteDo you have access to last night's 0z run of the Euro? If so, i'm just wonder if it's showing anything particularly significant for the Thurs/Fri timeframe for WNY? Has it made any notable shifts from previous runs?
"Wish Channel 8 would say something about thur/fri" Sorry had other things going on this morning. It's all about 1 system at a time for me. New post has been added.
ReplyDeleteCan you tell me about the beams of light I saw just after midnight on Jan.17. The temp was 10, the air was still, the moon was up and there was snow on the ground. The area was very bright. The beams were variously colored and were stationary They covered about 300 degrees of the horizon. Were they caused by snow/ice crystals reflecting from varied light sources? JS
ReplyDelete