Written by: Brian Neudorff
I expect that there will be a wide range of snow totals this morning. In Rochester and some of the surrounding areas 3 to 4 inches of snow fell overnight. This has left a slick coating on many area roads and highways. I would just remind people give yourself time and be smart as you go to work, school or where ever the day may take you.
The coastal storm is taking over. There has even been thunder and lightning in eastern Connecticut this early morning as the storm deepens and strengthens. I am with a good portion of you who wish that was us but such is the pattern we have been in.
As far as additional snow, I think many could get another 2 to 4 inches with wrap around and some lake enhancement from the Niagara Frontier to the Genesee Valley. This is more of a nuisance snow than a hindrance. Later tonight with a north to northwest wind more fluffy (or as some of you like to call it "fake" snow) will occur. Most north of the thruway and highest amounts east and north of Rochester. I expect a range of 1 to 4 inches for the City with the lower ends the most likely with maybe 3 to 5 inches close to the lake and eastern suburbs of Rocehster into Wayne county.
I would also like to get your snow reports. In the comments below just post your location, when you measured and how much snow you received. Thank you to all for all your input.
About 4 inches in Lyons at 6am
ReplyDeleteThank you Sal - Brian
ReplyDelete4" in Rochester
ReplyDeleteBesides snowfall today, and a little this weekend,what do you think next week will bring? Got a few inches anyway here in pavilion.
ReplyDelete4" in West Bloomfield
ReplyDeleteBetween 4-5 inches Xerox area in Webster by 7 am.
ReplyDelete4-5" - Dewey/Stone Area
ReplyDeleteBut I sure had forgot what 'real' snow was like to shovel!
Looking at the snow reports - http://www.crh.noaa.gov/product.php?site=buf&product=PNS&issuedby=BUF&format=ci&version=1
ReplyDeleteIt appears our 3 to 6 was right on target. Yes a lot of this was Lake enhanced but still there is that synoptic component.
Additional 2 to 4 is possible by later this evening from Rochester west.
Still coming down moderate to heavy on the east side of Rochester. have 6.5" so far.
ReplyDeleteBrian, how much longer is this going to keep up? We're nearing Warning level snowfall here.
We will see a transition from the synoptic over to lake effect. I am still thinking of 2 to 4 additional inches possible for some this afternoon. Definitely think it is still steady through the early afternoon and into the evening. -Brian
ReplyDeleteEastside by Powder Mills Park is almost at 6 and 1/2 inches and no it wasn't on a drift. Just measured it. Whoop Whoop!!
ReplyDeleteThanks TP. We said 3-6" by noon. Definitely keeping the lake enhancement through the afternoon. -Brian
ReplyDeleteJust now. Noon just about 6 inches in Newark.
ReplyDeleteThanks Gilbert - Brian
ReplyDelete6" in Greece.
ReplyDeleteDoug
Still snowing at a pretty good clip in Lyons. I have to think we are into the lake effect snow now as radar seems to be having a tough time picking up the snow here in Lyons. I know we now have over 6 to 8 inches in Lyons now.
ReplyDeleteI know most are saying about 4 in in rochester...I live near highland park so maybe elevation has something to do with it but it definitely seemed like as of 10am we had 6-8 inches, which by now would have to be closer to 8. I'll give an update later when I'm home from work and finished ice skating around the metro in my car.
ReplyDelete8 inches in Bloomfield
ReplyDeleteClosing in on 8" in the city of Rochester.
ReplyDeleteHow are we doing down in Livingston county? Everybody get at least 4" so far?
ReplyDeleteHi DK, I had 5 drives to do this morning! I haven't measured but it it still coming down. If i had to guess, I would say 7 inches. I like it! Brian, do you think that we will continue with snow down here in Sparta (Just about 6 miles south of conesus lake)? Will we get what appears to be coming in from the west?
ReplyDeleteChris - I think you could still get a couple more inches before this winds downs. Nice little event. I wonder how "This is No Big Deal only 2" Andrew feels now? Ok all kidding aside I like Andrew and appreciate his contributions to this blog. It's not everyday the meteorologist can give someone a hard time for a weather forecast. It takes guts to come on here and forecast what he did. So keep it coming we appreciate it Andrew and no hard feelings.
ReplyDeleteLet us know what amounts you are getting. Keep us updated. If you have family call them and say hey email amounts to weather@rochesterhomepage.net
Thanks guys.
If anything, I guess you could call this an "overachieving" event. The lake enhancement really took hold today. It's nice to get a little bonus snow rather than what more often seems to happen and we get less than expected.
ReplyDeleteAnd like I said yesterday, with a couple more snow systems coming through between this weekend and next week, our snow pack is going to get impressive around here. Gotta love it.
Just an FYI - The Winter Weather Advisory has been replaced with a lake effect snow advisory. NWS is expecting another 4-8 inches overnight. Counties include Orleans, Monroe, Wayne, Ontario, Yates & Seneca. Livingston, Genesee & Wyoming still under Winter Weather Advisory until 5pm.
ReplyDeleteAw, for a minute there, I thought maybe I would see another 4-8 tonight! Anything is possible! If the snow falls, then I have driveways to clear so the more, the merrier!! Brian, you mentioned yesterday that this weekends even will be a 1-3 but what is in store for next week? I know DK has mentioned it a couple times! I am curious! Henry, Hats off to you too as you were talking about this weeks ago :)
ReplyDeleteIt is funny to watch the snow flakes change back and forth from little to HUGE flakes! It is still coming down good here in Sparta! I am hoping the snow off to the west makes it's way to me!
ReplyDeleteIn case you've been looking at the radar that appears to show it winding down, don't be fooled. I just drove from Pittsford/Victor to Henrietta and back, and it snowed like crazy the whole way. Roads are lousy.
ReplyDelete8 inches in Fairport.
ReplyDeleteThank you Chris thought the storm would move more west it was by no means a direct hit but it moved close enough to give us more lake enhancement. I am glad the snow lovers got some decent snow still hoping for that 1-2 feet storm sometime this winter. Looking at something Monday-Tuesday not sure what will happen will that one. May give my opinion on that later or tomorrow.
ReplyDeleteLake snow will continue tonight 3-7" North and along the thruway by morning. This isn't DIRECTLY from the storm, additional lake snows is all.
ReplyDeleteScott
Lyons: 7" of snow as of 3:45PM, Moderate snow continues, and very windy!
ReplyDeleteOK Brian I was not correct I concede! However, did not think there would be this much lake enhancement and LES from this storm. But you can not always be right. I will keep trying it is all in fun! Scott not to be predicting again but LES appears to have ceased are you saying the lake will kick up again later tonight and dump 3-7 in the metro?
ReplyDeletedon't be fooled by the radar... sometimes you have to just look up :) it's still snowing pretty good here in Gates
ReplyDeleteSnowing outside the station at a pretty good clip too...snow reflects poorly back to radar and thus we don't get the true picture. Ask anyone in Wayne CTY!
ReplyDeleteScott
Definitely approaching 12" if not a solid 12 up by highland park
ReplyDeletesnowmobile trails are open too!
ReplyDeleteYep, radar does not pick up snow all that good. We had about an hour break and it is snowing again pretty good down here in Livingston County! Nice big flakes too!! I pulled up the radar and it shows nothing near me yet it is coming down very nicely :) I would say about 8 inches so far.
ReplyDeleteHey Scott I was just wondering what your feelings are about that possible storm next Tues-Weds. time frame.I know you are not a long term model guy in fact you look at way more higher level stuff than anyone to form your predictions and they are almost always right. In fact you had this current one right on for to far east for us to be in the sweet spot eight days ago. I am thinking that we have a good shot to be in the sweet spot with this next one. I strongly believe from the 21st to the end of the month we are going to get some REAL COLD air wondering what you feel about that too. And do you really think 3-7 is a good bet for those north of the thruway tonight because you are the only one thinking those numbers that I have seen. Thanks
ReplyDeleteJust goy home out here in Marion. Drove down through Sodus. A solid 8 inches and snowing. Maybe a bit more like 10, but hard to tell with the drifting. Enough to venture out on the sleds. So that is where I'm headed now. Came from Boonville today. They didn't do as well up there. 4 to 5 is all and wasn't snowing when I left at 3:00. But sleds were out up there. That's for all the other sledders out there who may read this.
ReplyDeleteI am reporting from Denver, CO today. Only a few inches here, but brilliant sunshine. One major difference between Denver and Rochester is that when it is 5 degrees here (as it was yesterday), it simply does not feel anywhere near that cold. Is it a "dry cold"? A mile closer to the sun? Not sure. But it was neat watching people with sunglasses and not a lot of heavy winter gear walking the sidewalks.
ReplyDeleteI came home to 1 ft of snow in Gananda. Pleasently surprised as this was not called for.
ReplyDeleteI would say it was a good snow event for all! I ended up plowing a bunch of driveways today so it was a good day! Now that we have had a taste, I hope that we get more in the ddays or weeks to come!! Henry has his sights on something for next week. He called this one a few weeks ago so I am hopeful he can go for two in a row!! Lets bring in the snow!
ReplyDeleteI am still wondering what Scott thinks about the mid-week possible storm next week. I also am wondering what DK and Dave think they are good too!
ReplyDeleteThe NWS states that we will be on the edge of the storm.
ReplyDeleteIs the lake effect going to redevelop because radar is clear right now.
ReplyDeleteI do not think there will be much LES for really any areas tonight. Maybe along the route 104 corrider will get some but that it about it. The radar has cleared out.
ReplyDeleteI agree now that everything has settled in for the night, I don't expect much. I will be making that point later tonight on the newscast. 3-7" overdone, more like 1-3"
ReplyDeleteScott
Wow it has happened Scott has finally miss a forecast(ha ha). You still are Rochester's most accurate forecaster even with this blemish. What are you thinking about next weeks possible mid week storm?
ReplyDeleteThe snow is finally coming to close down here in Mid Livingston County. It was a great day of snow and I am sure there will be enough for one more round of plowing in the morning!! I am excited to see what is next down the road!! I will stick ruler in the yard tomorrow morning for a final number! Henry, I am still waiting for Scott's answer too....
ReplyDeletePerhaps I spoke too soon. I just went outside and the snow has picked back up again! I am sure it wont last long but once again, big flakes and coming down good too!! Henry, I have been looking around at the next system. Do you think it will be the same type that we just had where the Low that is coming across the middle of the country will transfer over to the one that will be coming up the coast? Or will that Low hold it's own and head our way? If I was looking at it correctly, it has some good potential! Is that the one you are wondering about?
ReplyDeleteWarmer air may come into play with next week's storm depending on track. Too early to say of course!
ReplyDeleteScott
No More snow tonight, haha I need sleep, 30 hour shifts, ahhhhhhhhhh I pushed solid 8inches in North Greece. I was pushing solid 12" in the eastern side of city..
ReplyDelete1-3" more for most overnight, not completely over just yet. Georgian Bay is working a bit West and some of that will move East overnight.
ReplyDeleteScott
Chris still alot of uncertainty with the next storm as Scott said. May be to far east but there appears that warm air could be a problem and lead to a mixed bag of stuff. We will have a better idea Sunday-Monday with what is going to happen.
ReplyDeleteGood Morning Henry! Yes, I noticed the red bars which I assume mean warm air? Am I correct that it is kind of the same scinario as this past storm with a LP coming up the East coast and another LP coming across the ohio valley? I just hope we do not get iced over. Snow storms are fun but ice causes many folks property damage and puts a hurting on their wallets. i do not wish that on anyone.
ReplyDeleteRochester is Officially up to 63.5" for the season (and it's only the second week of January!). With a couple more shots of snow on the way, I wouldn't be surprised if we hit or even exceed 70" for the season by this time next week.
ReplyDeleteA bust of a winter snowfall-wise? No way. This has been quite a snowy winter so far if you ask me.
accuweather has us with snow and ice in their extended forecast, just hope for no rain or warm temperatures. Bring us more snow, snowmobilers welcome it!
ReplyDeleteWell, I just went out and stuck a tape in the yard! 9" of snow in Sparta! We still have some big fluffy flakes coming down too! It is great to watch. Now if only the deer would come out of the woods into the field so we can try out the new zoom lens. It would make a beautiful picture!!
ReplyDeleteWhere has Charles Wachael been?
ReplyDeleteIf we do end up on the warmer side of the storm, it won't last long. Even the warmer GFS model has us getting above freezing for just one day. And not above freezing by very much. No big thaw on the way, so don't worry. We'll keep our deep snow for quite some time to come.
ReplyDeleteI agree with DK and I think we will not be on the warmer side perhaps a wintry mix but not pure rain but still too early to tell. However, I do not think this storm is going to have a great deal of moisture to work with. I will say this starting next Friday I think it is going to get pretty darn cold around here for a bit. DK what do you think about what side we will be on in your opinion and the moisture with it? Thanks
ReplyDeleteYes, I would like to read DK's take on next week as well. Henry, you are right, it is going to get cold!
ReplyDeleteWhat is Saturday and Saturday night looking like?
ReplyDeleteWe actually might be on the west side for the Tuesday storm, but don't worry. It won't be like the other storms where we turned balmy warm and rained. For one thing, it won't be strong enough to advect in a ton of warm air. There is a lot of snow cover currently, and a lot of cold air in place. Also, we have a pattern that just isn't conducive for major ridges bubbling up into the east. So despite a westerly track, still not enough for 50's and rain. Ain't gonna happen. We may get a mix out of it, however, but only briefly. And probably some accumulating "front end" snow before the changeover were to happen. As for major cold later next week...that's been showing on the ensembles for quite some time now. Looks like it will turn quite cold. Question is, are we talking 15-20 for highs, or are we talking highs not making it out of the single digits. Too early to tell.
ReplyDeleteI will say this...last night's run of the GFS had -30C at 850 over us during the advertised cold outbreak. We would struggle to get above zero fahrenheit with those temps. And you don't even want to know what our lows would be with clear skies, light winds and deep snow cover if it's -30C at 850 in mid January. Not buying it though. The GFS is notorious for getting too aggressive with cold a week to ten days out. And it has already shifted away from -30 in the most recent runs.
As of now it looks like the sat./sat. night clipper will give us the usual 2-3 inches with the possibility of a little bit of lake activity. I don't want to jinx us, but it looks like the storm system next tuesday/wednesday could be the storm everyone on this blog has been eagerly awaiting!!! Fingers crossed!! Although, the current models are making it a mess to forecast. Scott and the rest of the News 8 weather team, Good Luck!!
ReplyDelete