Written By: Scott Hetsko
The following statement is always true: West tracking lows which are getting stronger, NEVER bring all snow to Western New York. Early next week, low pressure will be developing over the lower mississippi valley and track up toward Ohio by Monday night.
Initially we will get a shot of snow as warm air rides up and over the well established colder air near the Earth. Eventually we'll likely get a changeover to sleet and maybe all rain for awhile on Tuesday. As always, EXACT track and strength of the storm will determine what type of precipitation we get but I'd bank on a messy mix from next week's storm followed by local lake snow and colder air.
THE SAME OLD STORY- TOO FAR EAST OR TOO OUR WEST. NEVER A PERFECT TRACK FOR WESTERN, NY. SAME OLD STORY TIME AND TIME AGAIN. MISS AFTER MISS AFTER MISS.
ReplyDeleteWhat is making this storm go West and every other storm too far East. I do not get it. It is either too far East or the storm goes West. WHY? WHY?
ReplyDeleteI actually don't mind the storms to the west....I think its fun to get the snow and then the sleet mix in...and then try to figure out if its going to switch to all sleet, or even rain...or back to snow. But a blizzard would be nice. Of course if we got them all the time, we would start treating them like lake effect snow and start wishing for something different.
ReplyDeleteI think that these types of storms are more interesting than just snow. Also, if we got hit with the storms that some have, we would begin to hate them. As for right now, we can enjoy the snow that we do have.
ReplyDeleteYou guys are nuts. We have not had an all out snowstorm(synoptic) in years. Why would you want a mix?????
ReplyDeleteBecause I know how rare it is around these parts to get those all out huge snowstorms...so why not enjoy a crazy mix storm that throws everything at ya! Plus, you know your definatly gonna get something...and if it turns out to be all snow, then hey, that's awsome
ReplyDeleteAgain all of you giving up faith that this is a done deal. Hold on you never know. No thought we would get the snow that we received from this last system. I do not think this is going to be a rain event but time will tell. There may be some mixing but we will get some snow. Let it play out. The Oz tonight and 12Z tom. GFS will tell more. Be patient! I will still stick by that we are going to get REAL cold starting next Friday!
ReplyDeleteNot good Scott already had his inaccurate forecast last night with the 3-7 not betting against him missing two in a row. Looks like a rainmaker!
ReplyDeleteHey Scott I do not want to keep pushing this point but don't pretty much all the models show starting the 21st that it is going to get really really cold like highs struggling to get to 10 and lows below zero? I certainly could be wrong but just wondering how you look at potential cold air and are longer range model runs more reliable than they are with storms? Thanks
ReplyDeletethanks agin HAARPS
ReplyDeleteAnonymous you have posted HAARPS before and no one really knows what you are talking about and you make no sense. Please explain or are you just being annoying instead of anonymous?
ReplyDeleteHenry,
ReplyDeleteI was curious too so i googled it. The High-frequency Active Auroral Research Program, or HAARP. That's as far as I went.
I agree with Henry. Let's sit back and see what unfolds with the next one! I am sure we will get a good amount of snow out of it and if there is a mix with it too, then so be it. I look forward to what the models show tomorrow! We still have some coning down out my way too. Enjoying it very much!
ReplyDeleteYuck! We finally got some decent snow cover here in Hilton, and now it might rain and wash it all away again? There is nothing I hate more, weather-wise, than rain in the winter! Oh well, enjoy it while it lasts, I guess.
ReplyDeleteConspiracy theorists believe that HAARP is controlling our weather patterns - basically steering storms at their choosing.
ReplyDeleteDK what do you think about the storm next week and cold to follow? Also still wondering what Scott feels about the cold that Henry has been talking about?
ReplyDeleteI'm also curious about Scott's opinion on the subject. I'm planning a trip to the Adirondacks that weekend and I want to be ready for the cold if/when it hits.
ReplyDeleteIf it isn't going to be sunny and 50, I'll take the way west track with 40 and rain. Anything to get rid of this mess.
ReplyDeleteFor what it is worth the weather channel had us in all snow for Tuesday and Wednesday on their map this morning.
ReplyDeleteThis snowpack is beautiful, you actually want to get rid of it NY123?
ReplyDeleteNY123 wants the snow to melt so we can look at mud and brown. I do not understand that. If you do not like the snow move to a warmer state.
ReplyDeleteDon't believe the Weather Channel.
ReplyDeleteHere is what I think. Tuesday's storm will be a mixed bag, starting as snow, sleet, rain, back to snow. By next Friday, we will be seeing some of the coldest temps we have seen in a few years, but it will only last for about 3 days. Then after that, temps will climb back to normal to maybe a few degrees above normal with a chance for an ice event the last week of January. Scott, let me know if my forecast has any merit.
ReplyDeletefreezing rain and snow according to accuweather, probably see a little bit of both or possibly short period of rain
ReplyDeleteEITHER WAY, IT SUCKS.
ReplyDeleteGood Morning Bloggers! Okay David, DK, Henry & The Channel 8/fox team...What is latest on the Tuesday/Wednesday event? My wife and I will be headed to Strong VERY early Wednesday morning for our 3 month old daughters surgery so I wont get enjoy what we get as we will be at the hospital for a couple days but I am still hopefull that we add some more snow to our totals!!
ReplyDeleteThis map is totally different to the one accuweather has. there is only one low on this map and accuweather has one working it's way up the east coast. see Mon-Tuesday night storm impact. This could keep us all snow.
ReplyDeleteI just looked at the latest GFS and it does not even have a coastal low forming. Just a weak low moving into MIchigan. If it is a weak system moving to our West then I think we would still stay all snow or a brief mix with no rain because it will not be able to pull up enough warm air for all rain.
ReplyDeletestill no word about the cold next weekend?
ReplyDeleteChannel 8 is very quiet right now. Must be busy.
ReplyDeleteI think the cold will come next weekend for several days and I think it is going to be really cold. The storm, I am not seeing the rain however I am also not seeing a huge amount of moisture for this storm. It will a mid size snowfall ( 4-6in. ) I believe but what do I know.
ReplyDeleteChris, please let me know how the surgery goes. Strong is one of the best childrens hospitals in the world. I hope everything turns out good. Your daughter will be in our prayers.
ReplyDeleteI havent really look at this storm much after plowing a million hours this week. 3 hours of sleep in 3 days is not good. I will take a look at this storm tonight or tomorrow. Seinfeld tonight! woo hoo
Anybody notice that circular area of intense snow coming toward us from the west? Scott, is that a meso low?
ReplyDeleteThat storm next week has more factors with it than the buffalo bills have problems.... To be honest, we might not know exactly whats going to happen until Monday...
ReplyDeleteMy guess. Not much.
ReplyDeleteI think Scott has got this one right it is going tpo our west and we will get rain out of it.
ReplyDeleteTo the Anonymous poster, I agree with Henry and David as well as DK in that we will be getting very cold. I have been reading about that on other sites in that a few waves of arctic cold are going to push into the states and give us very cold temps. David, thank you very much for the well wishes for Lillian. her lip and nose surgery will be first for the cleft lip. Next, at 10 months, comes the pallett surgery. I know Strong is one of the best. Her pallet surgery will be at Vanderbilt Childrens Hospital in Nashville. Get some sleep so you are ready for the next round of snow!
ReplyDeleteFEEL COASTAL DEVELOPMENT WOULD BE PERHAPS A BIT MORE
ReplyDeleteLIKELY. SO WILL LEAN TOWARD A STRONGER COASTAL LOW...WHILE FORECAST
CONFIDENCE FOR TUESDAY REMAINS LOW.
SHOULD START OFF WITH FAIR WEATHER ON MONDAY...WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING
FROM THE UPPER MID-WEST MONDAY NIGHT. IT SEEMS LIKELY THAT NO MATTER
HOW THE EVENT PLAYS OUT...WE WILL PROBABLY HAVE SOME FORM OF
PRECIPITATION ON TUESDAY. FOR NOW...WITH GO WITH RAIN OR SNOW
LIKELY...THOUGH ANYTHING FROM ALL RAIN...TO MIXED PRECIPITATION...TO
ALL SNOW IS STILL POSSIBLE. EITHER WAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY
SOMEWHERE NEAR EASTERN CANADA...BRINGING IN COLDER AIR INTO WESTERN
NEW YORK BY MID WEEK. EXPECT A FAIRLY COLD N-NW FLOW TO
DEVELOP...WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
ReplyDeleteTHOSE FORECASTS WERE FROM YESTERDAY. I AM SURE THE TALK WILL BE DIFFERENT LATER TODAY.
ReplyDeleteReally? Posting a competing channel's forecast? If I were the administrator of this blog, I would delete that post!
ReplyDeleteAgreed DK said we would not compare another channel's info since Brian posted that one excellent blog. Chris I want to say good luck with your daughter's surgery too. I hope you get there smoothly and alot of snow awaits when you get home. I am sure we will get some idea from News 8 soon. I agree with David alot deal of uncertainty with storm do think we will be mostly snow. What do you think DK?
ReplyDeleteIt still looks like a mix is in the cards for Tuesday. But only very briefly. Then the temperatures drop like a rock late tuesday. Looks like we may reach the mid 30's tuesday and be in the teens by late that same night with snow and wind. Gonna be interesting.
ReplyDeleteNothing from News 8 yet Bob is in not Scott.
ReplyDeleteHey chris my son is 10 and was born with a cleft lip and pallet. Strong is very great and has done a great job with him....May i ask why the pallet surgery is going to be done in nashville??
ReplyDelete