IT'S A NEW YEAR, WHERE DO WE GO FROM HERE
Written by: Brian Neudorff
Welcome to 2011. I hope it is a good one for all of you who regularly visit this blog. I would like to see the discussion continue and welcome all those to participate. If you are new to weather or just have a question don't hesitate to ask. Someone will answer that is for sure. Bob, Scott and myself enjoy having this blog and talking with all of you.
There was definitely a lull in our activity over the holidays. Some of that is probably attributed to the overall quiet weather we had. Now that we are in a New Year, we as a weather team want to maintain this blog as a great place that amateur meteorologist along with weather newbies can all come together and talk weather and freely ask questions. There is no question to trivial or too hard. (O.K. there will be a few challenging questions but we will do the best we can to answer them.) I think a resolution for all of the meteorologist here is to be quicker with some of our responses.
I know it can get frustrating but I hope all of you know we read every comment left and do our best during our shifts as well as when we are away from the station to try and answer all comments and questions the best we can. Before we move forward I'd like to just mention what we like to see from all of you who participate.
The Golden Rule - Treat Others as You would like to be Treated - we come from all weather interests, background and different love of different weather. Show respect to someone who you disagree with or with someone who disagrees with you. It goes a long way in having a strong conversation. Many of the snow lovers get frustrated due to the lack of snow or storms. That doesn't mean you should take it out on someone who doesn't feel the same as you or a meteorologist who isn't forecasting snow.
Be Yourself, Don't Be Someone Else - This is a response to the person who commented under "Jim Cantore" Don't do that. The last thing we need are people coming on saying they are Bob, Scott, myself or someone else. I personally would like to see less Anonymous posts and more with screen names. It's a lot easier to respond to a name than it is to Anonymous.
Worst case scenario is if people came on pretending to be the competition. We are not here to get baited into a battle of which forecast is better, ours versus the competition. We let the numbers and our forecast speak for themselves. I can only speak for myself, but I do not check out the competitors forecast when I put my forecast together. It's nothing against them I just don't want that in my mind as I do my work.
We Don't Comment on Our Competitors Forecast - This just follows up with what I said above. I have seen with a few lake effect events or potential storms that some have come over and posted another channels forecast. It's just a rule we have that we don't comment on the other forecast done by the other channels and since we don't know why they are forecasting what they are it really doesn't do much good to make a comment about it.
NOW TO THE WEATHER...
First half of the week is seasonable. A clipper system does move through the region on Tuesday. It doesn't look like we get a lot of snow out of this, maybe an inch or two area wide. Some locations could get more but I wouldn't count on a lot of people seeing more than the one to two inch range.
Next weekend will still need to be watch. Euro and GFS models show something there. I don't think this as big of a storm like it was for NJ and NYC. This time Boston may see more in the way of snow. Like all of these systems location is key. I think we see some enhancement from the clipper on Thursday and then from possible enhancement in wrap around Friday into Saturday but that is not a guarantee. It will need to be watched and we will know more as we go over the next few days.
Those talking about cold especially from the Norman, OK forecast discussion. I think we are colder than average going into the weekend and cold if not seasonable through next week. I don't think the cold is as cold as December when compared to average but we should have plenty of cold around at least through the first half of the month.
Great Post Brian. I would like to see more folks using a name as well, Makes it easy and more personal. I get more involved with Henry, DK, Charles and others who use a name. I enjoyed the dusting to an ince that we got down here in Sparta last night. I hope to see more as I have not used my plow once this year!
ReplyDeleteThanks for the compliment and I want you and all who want it to have snow too. One of my twin sons is asking me all the time, when is the snow coming back and will it be a lot. I already have a snow lover on my hand.
ReplyDeleteThese clippers are good for some snow but not a lot. Like I said above can't ignore the system coming into play this weekend and maybe next week but for now it just needs to be watched because so much will happen between now and then.
Two good points you brought up that was bothering me, Brian. 1) The person posting as Jim Cantore. somebody posted that it's illegal. I also heard that there is a new law that makes it illegal to impersonate somebody on a social networking site. I'm not sure if it applies to blogs like this...but either way, it's NOT a good idea. So i'm glad you brought that up.
ReplyDeleteAlso, THANK YOU for bringing up the folks who feel the need to post what the competing channel's weather forecast said. If I was a meteorologist who worked hard to put together a forecast product which I believed to be the most accurate and informative for the public, it would make me uncomfortable and frustrated if somebody came on this public website...which I created for them to have fun on... to randomly tell me how my competitor said something different. If Glenn Johnson or Kevin Williams were to read this blog, I would imagine that it would make them uncomfortable, too. Although they are competitors, i'm sure they all respect one another, and don't want things stirred up by people going around telling their competitor direction, "hey, your competitor said..." So just try to keep that aspect in mind.
Good job Brian with your post. I do agree we all need to be civil to each other. I have been saying we do need to keep an eye on this weekend and the next weekend there is still a great deal of uncertainty. I believe because I do look at long term models that next weekend could be more likely for us to get snow.
ReplyDeleteMore on this later but I expect colder than average air for most of January and more lake enhanced snow as we head into the weekend. I suspect we will have white back on the ground for many one week from today.
ReplyDeleteI know that our competitors don't comment about our forecasts and we won't talk about theirs. Professional courtesy.
Scott Hetsko
From a snowmobiler's standpoint this freezing cold air with green grass is actually a good thing. It allows the soil to freeze solid first before we get our next snow pack. When the snow piles up before the ground freezes it ends up creating a sloppy mess of mud underneath the snow. So let it stay freezin' cold for a few more days then may the skies release with gobs and gobs of snow!
ReplyDeleteNews 8 said -I think we are colder than average going into the weekend and cold if not seasonable through next week. I don't think the cold is as cold as December when compared to average but we should have plenty of cold around at least through the first half of the month.
ReplyDeleteScott H said- More on this later but I expect colder than average air for most of January
I ask which is it? I only bring this up as this was posted on the same blog 31 minutes apart and 2 different views.
No it's not 2 different views. When you compare December's cold air to December's Average and what I am seeing for the cold coming compared to January's average it may not be as far as a departure.
ReplyDeleteI never said it was going to be average. -Brian
Keep in mind what is "average" for December is not the same for January. I do think we will see cold air but maybe not as cold and also not as far south like we had in December when Florida was setting new record low temperatures. I hope that clarifies that. Brian
ReplyDeleteI agree with Brian. December was like a whopping 4 degrees below normal. That might not sound like a lot, but when you take it as an average, IT IS. I highly doubt we'll see that degree of below normal cold repeat itself for a second month. It's all relative.
ReplyDeleteWhere oh where are the synoptic storms. Once again we get cold and there are no storms around.
ReplyDeleteOver the last few winters, i've noticed an interesting mesoscale pattern. It seems that when we have weak synptic events, like the one approaching us for Tuesday, the precip looks as if it is going to reach us as it fills in across the Niagara Frontier (in places like Buffalo and Batavia). But then, for some reason, the wall of precip fizzles right before it reaches Monroe County and Livingston County. The cutoff tends to be in a north-south line from Holley to Leroy to Perry. With lake effect off erie, I understand that phenomenon. But when it happens during a synoptic system, I don't understand why. Is there a specific reason that this happens?
ReplyDeleteIt looks if the storm this weekend will impact New England area. We once again are to far west. We can wait and see how the next storm goes. There will a few storms firing up the next three weeks. Just feel because of history they will also probably be to far east. Maybe things will change.
ReplyDeleteWe all just need to come to understand that we miss most synoptic events here in Western NY. That is the history and that is the fact. Unless we can get a storm that come through the upper Ohia Valley, through Central, Pa we will not get a good storm. The Nor-Easters always miss us East and South. The last TRUE blizzard we had was the Blizzard of 1991. That was the only time I ever remember they put up Blizzard warnings for us. IN most cases we miss these and are left with lake effect for some. We just need to get used to it. Dan
ReplyDeleteYou mean blizzard of '93?
ReplyDeleteWHy does the ECMWF only show a 3, 4, 5 and 6 day forecast with nothing in between like the GFS shows? Dan
ReplyDeleteYes, sorry DK. Thanks. Dan
ReplyDeleteThe BIG ice storm was in 1991. Dan
ReplyDeleteThe ECMWF (European model) is harder to access than the GFS. To get the most complete access I think you have to subscribe to it.
ReplyDeleteAh, the ice storm of 1991! I will never forget that one. My mother had gone into the hospital the day before and that night, I told her i would be back in the morning. I clearly remember hearing the sound of trees cracking and all kinds of other strange noises as I was trying to sleep. The next morning, it was both and beautiful site to see with all of the ice coating everything, yet there was alot of damage to our property. With a state of emergency in effect with no way to drive, I bundled up and walked the 7 miles into town to see my Mom at Noyes. When I arrived, she was in to much discomfort for visitors so I told the nurses to tell her I had come by and I hikes back home. Mom felt so bad when she found out I had walked all that way in the ice only to be turned away. I told her I understood and not to be upset.
ReplyDeleteWhen I returned home, my brothers and I gathered wood for the stove in our shed and that is how we cooked for the week or so that we were without power. We were thankful that Mom had heat and electricity at the hospital so she could recover in comfort but me and my brothers will never forget the time we had that two weeks with our father. Dad passed away in 2007 but we still talked about that storm every year and the fun we had until he passed. How about stories from other bloggers? If we are not getting storms like we all remember, how about we share stories from storms past?