Written By: Scott Hetsko
A widespread moderate snowfall is forecast for the entire region beginning later evening Tuesday through early afternoon Wednesday. A storm system diving out of the Dakota's this evening will track into the Ohio valley and transfer it's power to a new storm along the Jersey coast early Wednesday. Before sending it's energy South, snow will fall in Western New York. I expect a general 3-6" for the entire area by noon Wednesday.
As the storm pulls away, a colder cyclonic flow of air across Lake Ontario will produce additional snow for towns near and North of the thruway Wednesday night and Thursday morning. Another several inches of snow will fall in these areas on top of the snow everyone else gets. To all our bloggers thirsty for a little snow, have a drink on me!
Now this is a forecast I can enjoy. I appreciate the updates Scott. I noticed that the NWS didn't issue any headlines for our region. They kept all headlines (Snow Advisory) to southwestern NY.
ReplyDeleteBut with that noted, am I wrong in interpreting their forecast discussion that they might be leaning toward eventually issuing an all out WATCH for our area? They seem fairly concerned about the lake enhanced potential, as they called out Rochester as a potential hot spot numerous times in their discussion. Ironically, although we aren't in any advisories, we may end up being the hardest hit. Just wondering if i'm interpreting that right...
Agree 100% DK
ReplyDeleteTHANK YOU SCOTTIE!!!! I speak for all of us snow lovers on here when I say THANK YOU again!! Yes, this is not a major storm by any means but I am thrilled all the same!! Do you have a time frame estimate as to it's arrival? Or, I could just keep looking out the window. I am just trying to get an idea as to what time to get the plow rolling!! I know this makes Me, Henry, and DK some Happy Campers!
ReplyDeleteHow do you see the NWS discussion?
ReplyDeleteGo to the following website:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.wbuf.noaa.gov/
Click on Rochester on the map.
Then, scroll down to the lower right corner of the page and click "forecast discussion."
It's a little techy though.
lake effect only north of the thruway. No snow southwest off of Erie? also higher amounts will be found to the south and Wyoming and southern genesee county from the actual event. let it snow!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
ReplyDeleteAmen, Amen! My girls will finally be able to make a good size snowman and Daddy will get to roll the plow! I am down!
ReplyDeleteChris, How much land do you have in West Sparta? I will take you up on that hunting offer. I tried to find your email address, I was unsuccessful..
ReplyDeleteHey David, I am in Sparta actually. I am about 6 miles North of Conesus Lake of Rt. 256. You can email me at bigklien@yahoo.com We have 47 acers down here, two large fields and a good amout of woods with streams that run through too.
ReplyDeleteI am glad at least we are going to get some snow I hope it comes true. I have been trying to stay positive and hopeful. Models however a little confusing to me but I am not an expert. Thanks for the update Scott. I hope you enjoy Chris!
ReplyDeleteI know Scott mentioned on the news that the lake effect might last a couple days and maybe even a similar setup Sat night into Sunday....
ReplyDeleteHmm, a repeat for the weekend? That would be nice! Thanks Henry!! I am ready for it!
ReplyDeleteIt will definately not be a blockbuster, but with lake enhancement and lake effect after that we could see a goof 6-12 in the counties bordering the lake by Thursday. Wht does everyone else think? Dan
ReplyDeleteI think areas north of 104 can see over 12" when all said and done...
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ReplyDeleteWhy would you say just North of 104 and not North of I-90.
ReplyDeleteToo bad that 12" wont be south of 5 & 20! That would be great for me!! But like I said before, I will take what i can get!
ReplyDeleteDecent amount of snow for many and 9" to 12" not unlikely if lake enhancement kicks in Wednesday night and Thursday like I think it might.
ReplyDeleteScott
Hey Scott, is that 9-12" just for those north of the truway or do we have shot at those #'s down here in Sparta/Dansville area?? Thanks!
ReplyDeleteYour range is likely to be in that 3-6" range but it's is possible for you to be up to 7 or 8" if a period of heavier snow hits you in the predawn of hours Wednesday.
ReplyDeleteScott
This storm really bombs out around Long Island hit 969 mbs. It is going to blow up for New England.
ReplyDeleteLooks like a classic Nor'Easter for Boston and folks along the coast from RI to Maine. Low does bomb out by Thursday evening
ReplyDeleteScott
So Scott you think the Rochester metro and surrounding suburbs could get 9 inches from Wednesday to Thursday?
ReplyDeleteIn total from initial snowfall plus lake snow, yep that number looks reasonable.
ReplyDeleteScott
Scott,
ReplyDeleteDoes tonight's latest 0z NAM still look "impressive" for significant snow in ROC when all is said and done, or has it pulled back since the 12z run?
Scott, I know this is a dumb question since we are dealing with this event but I have to ask. Whats brewing for Saturday night into sunday....
ReplyDeleteThank you Scottie, I'm having a winter brew and a pipe to celebrate...and watching the models like most here. Bring on the snow.
ReplyDelete12year scotch for me......
ReplyDeleteOr maybe a nice 2007 Cab from Calif.. Or a nice 1982 Bordeaux...
Macanudo hampton court
ReplyDeleteThe 0z NAM looks a little suspicious with its track. It has jumped to being farther west and north and looks weaker, yet prints out similar amounts to previous runs. Not sure what to make of it.
ReplyDeleteDK, The storm tuesday/wed or this weekend?
ReplyDeleteThis weekend looks like just 1-3" followed by wind and lake effect squalls. As for the more immediate snow fall, still like general 3-6" with more by the lake. DK, can't let one run throw a wrench in a forecast :) It will be highly dependent on if that parent low weakens quickly. If it does then the deformation zone (highest snowfall rates) would be South where lift is greatest.
ReplyDeleteScott
I said it earlier today in a post in response to Brian's post. The Rochester metro will be lucky to get 2-3 inches by Thursday. All wanted evidence well Scott just hit the evidence the LP coming at us will transfer all its energy quickly to the strong LP that bombs out around LI. Do not get to excited folks.
ReplyDeleteEvery party has a pooper....
ReplyDeleteOr a realist!
ReplyDelete0Z GFS looks not good for us maybe Andrew has hit the nail on the head. It is a weaker farther east low and takes the energy from the Ohio valley LP quickly.
ReplyDeleteThe initial low was always expected to transfer its energy to the coast. Why are we saying this like its breaking news? Also, what run are you comparing the 0z run to? I ask because the 0z run of the GFS looks consistent with previous runs. It still prints out generally the same amount of snow as the previous 12z run that came out late morning. Very little has changed from previous thinking. We're still on track for 3-6 with more likely north of the thruway.
ReplyDeleteHi Scott and weather team,
ReplyDeleteHow much can we expect to get down here in Canandaigua? We have seemed to miss it all this year and just wanting some snow so my kiddos can sled. Thanks for all you do and I really enjoy this blog.
How is FutureCast looking this morning? Is it printing out more or less snow than the image you showed on yesterday morning's blog post?
ReplyDeleteEveryone a new post has been updated you can check it out - Brian
ReplyDelete