Written by: Brian Neudorff
I have to say and get this off my chest. I am very jealous of the Midwest, Plains, coastal Northeast and now even the Southern United States. They have had real snow storms. Then you have us. We got three inches of synoptic snow (non lake effect) on December 1st, 2010 since then all of our snow has been from lake effect. That is great if you have had a lot of snow from these bands not so much if you live outside of the lake effect areas.
We will get some synoptic snow later this week and I am excited. As the storm system in the plains moves south and into the Ohio valley and the southeastern storm starts to work up the coast the systems will combine to produce some snow for us. For many of you, this will once again be a disappointment. I have learned that unless we are forecasting at least a foot and for some its not real snow unless you get 2 feet or more, you don't want to hear about it. For the rest the above graphic is from our in house forecast model FutureCast. It is wanting to print out somewhere between 3 to 6 inches. This is on par with what I am seeing from both the GFS and NAM. It actually looked like the NAM was a little more bullish this morning on amounts than the GFS.
This is not our official forecast for Wednesday this is just my first look and estimate from what I am seeing. I feel confident we are in that range but it could be more and sadly it could be less. I am like many of you, I want a good'ol snow storm. I know at least one of my sons wants the same thing. When that burst of lake effect moved across Rochester on Saturday we were both out playing in the snow.
That burst of snow on Saturday was AWESOME. I was up near the lake when it hit. The clouds before it hit were bubbling up like a thunderstorm. That's when I knew we were in for heavy stuff. Snowfall rates had to be at least 2" per hour because I picked up over 4" in a two hour time period. I personally am excited about the prospects of another 4" of synoptic snow. Theres already 2-3" or so on the ground across most of metro Rochester and this denser synptic snow will really give us a healthy snow cover. Finally deep enough snow to go sledding and not hit bare ground after one run. And the best part is, it shouldn't be melting anytime soon.
ReplyDeleteGood Morning Brian. I was wondering if there were any statistics on which model is more reliable during this time frame when printing out track and total precip? Is the NAM trusted over the GFS under 60 hours because of its higher resolution?
ReplyDeleteThe first thing I look for when it comes to comparing the NAM/GFS how is it initializing compared to current weather. If one model is handling the current weather or storm better than the other then I may lean more to that model because it's initial conditions are better. -Brian
ReplyDeleteGood Morning Brian!! Thanks for the update! It has a smile on my face :) Later today I will be putting the plow up, waxing it up, flushing the lines and then waiting!! Henry, looks like a hat off to you sir as you mentioned this a few weeks ago as did David and DK! Good job fellas!
ReplyDeleteBrain, What about the moist North East wind direction? I think areas North of I90 and especially, yes 104, Can see some nice lake enhancement...
ReplyDeleteChris, Congrats on the 3 month old! I have a 4 month old myself..
Brian,
ReplyDeleteOne thing I notice from most of the models, including FutureCast, is that they really aren't showing any extra amounts closer to the lake. Are the profiles not looking good for added lake enhanced snow, or are most of the models just not picking up on this mesoscale feature?
DK a lot of these models have a hard time with lake effect and enhancement. Also I am not giving specifics with this being mostly a Wednesday event. As I said this was a preliminary look and we will have more to come as we go tonight and definitely tomorrow. -Brian
ReplyDeleteBrian, thought this was going to start Late Tuesday evening?
ReplyDeleteSounds good. Thanks for the updates, Brian! It's going to be cool watching the radar light up area-wide for a change. This should make our middle Genesee Valley friends very happy.
ReplyDeleteThanks David, she is ancutie! I have 3 girls and they are all beautiful! Lord help me! But hey, that just means daddy has a nice gun collection right? Our 3 month old was born was born with cleft lip and pallett so her first surgery is the 19th at strong. I am a nervous wreck! But back to weather, I suddenly realized that I did not give a "hats off" to the pro METS as well. You guys do a wonderful job each and every day and I appreciate that! David, I think if you click on my name (google profile) it will allow you to email me if you were serious a place to hunt! I look forward to the posts later in the day to see if the pattern has that Western shift we are all hoping for!!
ReplyDeleteChris, this is my first, a girl too. Im leaning towards one and done, but we will see! Girls are $$$$$$$ college, weddings! clothes, yikes... When she brings home her first boyfriend I am going to have my Glock 22 on my hip and my savage 220 in my hands. And im not joking.
ReplyDeleteI really hope everything works out with the surgery. My sister works at strong and is often with the kids who have surgery. Strong is the best for kids, plain and simple. I am going to take you up on hunting. Its so hard to find honest people to let you hunt their land. I understand the liability, but 99.9% of us hunters practice safe hunting.
5 inches for southern genesee, I'll take it.
ReplyDeleteThats a good amount for Southern Genesee! I hope you get more if you are wishing for it. I am excited to see what we get here on the hill in Sparta! I am sure I will enjoy sitting up tomorrow night awaiting the arrival like a child at Christmas. David, yes, safe hunting is key! That couples with a nice amount of snow!!
ReplyDelete12z GFS still looks good for a solid Advisory criteria snowfall. NAM looks good too. So, as we near even closer to this event, consistency and precip output in model runs looks good...if not even better than yesterday for WNY, in my opinion. Channel 8 / Fox's FutureCast projection that Brian showed looks quite on target to me with a general 4-5 inches looking like the most likely scenerio. With the storm now under 48 hours away, and the models showing no signs of pulling back, it's looking more and more like a sure thing.
ReplyDeleteAgain I do not see anything that shows close to 4-6 inches for the Rochester metro. We are lucky if anyone gets 2 inches in Rochester. The whole strom is not real strong NYC is lucky to 6-8 inches according to the current models. The 12z GFS was nothing to get excited about. This is going to be like the last two winters boring and I am afraid the rest of the winter will be the same. It is the same old story waste your time looking and hoping that is what I do.
ReplyDeleteAndrew - You say, "I do not see anything that shows close to 4-6 inches for the Rochester metro" So I have to ask, what are you looking at? I was looking at the overview available on BUFKIT. Yes my data when I did the blog was 00z but still solid. Both GFS & NAM were roughly 3-6 inch range. Yes that can change but if you have ever seen my posts on this blog I do not wishcast, none of us here at WROC do. We always try to call it like we see it. Not only say here is what we see but why.
ReplyDeleteI have learned that we get a lot of personalities on this blog. From those who are really high on storms, those that wishcast but try to be realistic and then those that no matter what all forecasts are wrong and undercut what is being forecast.
Honestly that is what makes this blog so much fun. I like the numbers right now and if you look at the cold air in place you will have higher snow ratios too.
Even with a little Northeast wind there could be some lake enhancement that some of the models don't do a good job of seeing. I still think 3 to 6 inches is a good range for now. It will need to be tweaked as we head into tomorrow. I am going to let it ride.
ReplyDeleteWell I am going to put it in the 1-3 inches range and let that ride.
ReplyDeleteDefinitely agree with Brian with regard to Andrew. Most models project Rochester picking up AT LEAST 3-4 inches for this event. Don't know where the 2" came from, but certainly not from official data, because it simply doesn't support it.
ReplyDeleteAndrew and your forecast or thoughts are most welcomed. Again I am not going to argue I just wanted to know what info you were using. Maybe I overlooked something. I am always open to knew info and data that I may not be aware of. Keep the involvement going. All thoughts opinions are welcome.
ReplyDeleteOne thing to keep in mind is that Brian, Scott and Bob (and all meteorologists for that matter) have a responsibility to the public when creating their forecast products. They don't have the luxury of letting "opinion" influence their forecast without scientific backup to support it and/or data or statistics that are rational. Opinion has no place in science when practiced by a scientist. Us blog commenters have the luxury of forming opinions and calling it our personal forecast, which is all good. It's fun to do and then go back and see if we were right. But as meteorologists responsible for informing the public, they can't do that.
ReplyDeleteIs there more snow coming this weekend?
ReplyDeleteVery light if at all.
ReplyDeleteSounds GREAT Brian! Perhaps Andrew is one of those that really wants huge snow but only says we get the small stuff in hopes of the big. Who knows. Either way, I stand by Brian! Times to wax up the sleds and grease up the plow :)..and maybe eat that turkey that fell from the sky over Davids house last night :)
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