Written by: Bob MetcalfeOur weather for the next little while is fairly benign, with just small instances for snow (late Tuesday into Wednesday) with consistently chilly weather. Therefore, I'm diving into a general science topic today.
The headlines that have been grabbing my attention lately are all these mysterious mass deaths of birds and fish across the globe. It first started with the blackbirds in Arkansas, followed up by thousands of dead fish in a river not too far away. Then this morning I read that thousands of doves fell out of the sky in France, with a mysterious blue stain on their beaks. What is going on here?!
I also saw a headline yesterday about the moving of the earth's poles and it somehow affecting a city in the midwest. I forget which one to be exact, as I didn't read the article. But this morning, while brushing my teeth, I started to put things together. Entering a solar max, auroras abound, moving earth's axis... are we screwing with the ecosystem?
So I then went to www.spaceweather.com, which is where this photo of current auroras was found and looked through the vast amount of information they have on current pertinent sun/space weather. Guess what I found? NOTHING! I was hoping I'd see some huge solar flare activity or coronal mass ejection and that I'd be the discovering the key to it all! But that wasn't the case. Its pretty quiet, except for heightened chances of aurora borealis in the high latitudes again tonight.
But is it just me, or are the explanations for the deaths of the birds in Arkansas suspect? Lightning? "High-elevation" hail? Fireworks? Ummm.... Don't you think that based on the millions of lightning bolts that have occurred in this country in the past, that there would be a recorded incidence of this somewhere? I have no idea what they mean by high elevation hail. I thought that most hail made it to the ground. Although the bird-coroners did say that they all died from blunt force trauma. Hmmm.
I don't know what to speculate. But you can bet that I'll be tuned into this. After all, 2012 is approaching.
that's weird!!!!!!!! i do not believe in the 2012 thing
ReplyDeletehaarps
ReplyDeleteI believe it has everything to do with the oil spill in the gulf. Toxic gasses are up in the atmosphere trappedand the birds are flying into the pockets of gases. And the fish....well that's pretty obvious...
ReplyDeleteIf you talk to bird people, they says this happens all the time! Just the media is covering it for a drama story. NUMBER 1 mass killer of birds is bacteria. They fly in large flocks, then they all stop and drink the same water. Often they stop in a water area that has run off from a farm. That water contains bacteria, they all drink it and boom, mass death.
ReplyDeleteNothing to do with an oil spill...
ReplyDeletenothing to do with farm water either...the gov't know whats going on, they just dont want the public to know about it till is too late.
ReplyDeleteGovernment doesn't have half a brain..
ReplyDeleteAlthough the media today may report more things, making it seem like it happens more often, mass deaths don't happen with such frequency over such a short period of time. That is unusual. And why are they falling from the sky rather than just slowly getting sick and wandering off somewhere to die like would normally happen. They just drop dead in mid flight. NOT normal. Here's the deal, at a certain point, we must stop writing everything off as being normal and no cause for alarm, and we must acknowledge that maybe....just maybe....something cosmic or biblical could be happening. We live in this little bubble where everything that happens is somehow explained one way or another, but there is so much more out there that is far greater than we are. We've just been lucky to experience this life of luxury where we aren't bothered by it. 2012 could very well be real. The Mayans aren't just these loony people that make outrageous predictions. They were right about things that we didn't even know until it actually happened. I would take their predictions seriously.
ReplyDeleteI think I speak for the vast majority of us when I say. When this form goes back to weather, I will come back.
ReplyDeleteAmen James.
ReplyDeleteI think Bob is underplaying the storm for Wednesday. It looks like it will more the just a nuisance. It will be advisory level snow- 3-5, 4-6. See the NWS out of Buffalo. Not a big storm by any means but it is the most synoptic snow we have had all year.
ReplyDeletethought they already determined that a govt tanker jet leaked a chemical (wmd) from a malfunction?
ReplyDeleteGetting back to weather for what it is worth which is probably not much accuweather just posted a map that has us in significant snow area. Who knows they are not the most accurate despite their name.
ReplyDeleteWE'RE ALL GONNA DIE!!!!!!!
ReplyDeleteThanks to the two Anonymous posters and James for attempting to keep this a "Weather Blog" I noticed that the "Other" weather source had that map up earlier last week showing us in Significant snow area as well. If Henry or David get on, I am curious to know what the latest runs show. David mentioned last night that one run showed it parked over NYC so I am curious if it has moved West at all....
ReplyDeleteIt is very confusing because for what it is worth Pittsburgh has a winter storm watch in effect. The models are still east but I am confused.
ReplyDeleteThe Ohio low is now forecastd to be a little stronger than previous runs thus giving us more snow than what was originally expected. A lot of the talk out of different weather offices is that the storm may be more west than the models are showing.
ReplyDeleteHey Chris.... Waiting for the next runs to come out, especially tomorrow morning.... With a low parked over NYC, we will see a very nice NE flow across Lake Ontario that will really enhance the snow. Theres gonna be a secondary upper level low parked over us that will being us some snow, but that, in combination with that rich North Eastern flow might set up really nice for us. A few days ago the storm was too far east to do this, but the slow shift west is turning this from a bust, into maybe a nice little event. I90 north, 104 North especially. Hoping the west trend continues. Just my 2 cents..
ReplyDeleteIf we get a NE wind which seems likley we will get lake enhancement. A half a foot or more is not out of the question. Again, not a big storm for us, but a synoptic event for all finally. Real snow.
ReplyDeleteNWS has us down for Snow
ReplyDeleteThe GFS latest track is further East again
ReplyDeleteI just thought I'd change it up a little bit since the next two days are fairly quiet!
ReplyDeleteI hope you don't think I'm downplaying the snow arriving Tuesday night, which will stick with us through Wednesday and early Thursday. I think its far too early to start guaranteeing advisory level snow however. If you compare all three models, you get three COMPLETELY different opinions right now. The strength of this current high along with a well developed low-pressure area moving through the DELMARVA will both act to slide the heaviest activity south and east of the area. We'll no doubt see several inches of snow, but from the data that I see at the current moment, I have reason to believe that most of the energy swings south of us (yet again.)
This will be another problematic storm for places like Philly, NYC, Newark, etc all along I-95. But I couldn't sit here and say to you that everyone here is going to see 6-8", at least not right now.
-Bob
I want to also say that I'm only talking about SYNOPTIC snow at this point. If/when the lake effect sets up behind this storm, it could be easy for areas to see another several inches behind it.
ReplyDelete-Bob
Not to get ahead of the game, Saturday might get interesting too.
ReplyDeleteDavid, Thank You for the reply! I appreciate it! Bob, Thank You as well. I don't want you to feel left out. I really wish everyone would use a name on here. It is great to interact with folks who love weather and it makes it more personal than saying, "Hey Anonymous". Thanks again David and Bob! I am very hopeful and putting the plow on tomorrow. let it snow, let it snow, let it snow :)
ReplyDeleteMy pleasure Chris. I am no pro, i've taken basic courses in college taught by a local Met. I think we can all agree that things were looking pretty bleek a few days ago. And looks like now were going to get something out of this. Time will tell how much. As Bob was saying, they're a bunch of different scenarios that can play out. My focus is that moist North Eastern wind. And if that low keeps sliding west, bonus. If the low over Ohio is stronger, bonus.
ReplyDeleteOkay David, I have a question. The NE flow that you mention, is that coming off Ontario or off the Atlantic? If it is off Ontario, then is that going to help enhance the synoptic with LES? And if so, do you think it will help bring it down may way in Sparta? As I mentioned before, I love weather and I am new when it comes to learning the models and such :)
ReplyDeleteNE flow would help bring lake ENHANCED synoptic snow. Its sort of a hybrid. It's a hard feat for us to get a sustained NE flow for any length of time, but it can turn 1"/hr snowfall rates into 2"/hr.
ReplyDeleteTo the folks who blew off the interesting article that Bob wrote about the bizarre bird and fish deaths, as well as the solar activity....Are you not thinkers at all? There's these very odd, supposedly coincidental things happening all of a sudden, and then there's talk of a weakening magnetic field, and you just respond with...."let's talk about weather." Wow, I can't imagine living my life willingly ignorant like that. Sometimes I feel like when things appear too deep for certain people's simple minds to understand, their first tendency is to put in blinders and dismiss the topic with skepticism, while continuing on with their simple minded existance. Blowing things off is the easiest excuse to not have to think too deep, huh?
ReplyDeleteChris... I think Bob explained it quite well. Moist air starts from Atlantic and Ontario just supercharges it a little.
ReplyDeleteI was outside and this turkey just fell out of the air, he was flying about 10ft high and he just fell right to the ground. I think I know why! My 12guage mossburg is smoking, could of been 1 1/4oz buckshot?
ReplyDeleteJust having some fun. This is earth my friend, we are just along for the ride.
CosmicRay, I am a religious man and I do believe as written in the bible that The Lord will return and that we had better be ready. I am ready, He could come tomorrow or while I am typing this. I am not convinced of the 2012 theory as I plan to be retired on a beach somewhere in 20 years and not dead in 2! As for the Article, was it an interesting article? Yes, it sure was! Do the birds, fish and other animals turning up dead have to do with weather? I am sure it is a factor. I also believe that there are other life forms out there when I look up at the sky at night. I am very well educated and one of the key things that I have learned in my life is sometimes it is best to keep my options to myself which is what I choose to do on this weather blog. So please, don't refer to me as simple minded. I would be happy to sit down and have beer or coffee with you to discuss the strange animal deaths, solar sytem, climate change or whatever else comes up. I have never met a stranger. I hope you have a good evening :)
ReplyDeleteDavid, I have a turkey fryer and 3 gallons of fresh peanut oil!
ReplyDeleteChris, Amen to you brother. I am a Christian as well and believe that God is in control of all things. We do not know the time or day of his return. Know one knows. The experts thought that Y2k was the end and , of course, it was not. Now they are saying 2012. If the Lord came back in 2012 that would be awesome, but the Bible states that no one knows the day or time. Only God does. All these animals dying could be a sign as spoken in Revelation. To CosmicRay, I say to you what Chris said to you. God Bless, Dan
ReplyDeletemmmmmmmmmmmm wild deep fried turkey.....
ReplyDeleteHey Chris and all hoping this thing keeps on a moving west. I would at least like to get something out of it. I have said it would all week and been trying to stay positive maybe we will get a big west movement on the GFS tonight and tomorrow. Keep positive
ReplyDeleteThe new Nam is further West than the GFS, but still keeps the heavier snow East of us into Easter, ny and New England.That has and will be the way it is. We always miss the BIG synoptic storms.
ReplyDeleteYes Sir Henry! I am sure all of snow lovers are looking for that bump to bring it West. I am looking forward to hearing to what ya'll have to say about it tomorrow! David, we have 47 acers down here. I usually see a few turkey strolling across the field in the morning. Of course, Deer season is always fun too! This season wasn't as nice seeing how opening day was warm and NO SNOW!
ReplyDeleteChris, Opening day deer season im coming down!
ReplyDeleteYep the NAM has NYC 15-20 inches possible it is unreal that we just can not get it moved 100 miles west. The big cities always getting hit the weather channel is in heaven.
ReplyDeleteSounds Good David! Now lets hope we have snow on the ground for it!! Nothing beats opening day with a fresh blanket of snow!
ReplyDeleteNYC and Boston will most likely see a 1-2 foot snowfall again while we miss out with a couple of inches once again. The beat goes on and on and on. It really is remarkable how we continue to miss evry single snowstorm. We have had 50 inches of fake fluff.
ReplyDeleteHey at least Bob had 3-6 inches possible on the forecast tonight. It is not a foot but at least it is something.
ReplyDeleteI'll take it Bernard! I missed the forecast. was that 3-6 north of the thruway or area wide?
ReplyDeleteI believe area wide!
ReplyDeletetonight? are you sure?
ReplyDeleteDavid no not tonight the storm mid week Tuesday night into Wednesday.
ReplyDeleteahhh Thats what I thought... Maybe some good lake enhancement on top of that north of the thruway
ReplyDeleteNow lets hope for more west movement and get a little more snow
ReplyDeleteThe latest 0z NAM looks good for a 3-6 or 4-8 inch synoptic snow late Tuesday night into Wednesday. Really no change there from previous runs, which is a good thing in terms of forecast confidence. Yes, the heaviest precip is farther to the east with the developement of a secondary low, but that secondary low was never expected to hit us anyway. It comes down to how quickly the secondary forms of the coast, however. If it forms sooner and becomes deeper, it will rob energy from the primary low, and we'll be looking at a weakening storm as it reaches us, with lesser (though still measurable) amounts. If the secondary takes longer to form, then the primary could end up being an "overachiever" in the snow department as it has little influence stripping it of its moisture at the time that it works its way into WNY. In any case, the NWS points out that the general snowfall beginning late Tuesday will be quite water laden, so for those that are sick of this fluffy, airy snow that compacts down to half its size, this stuff will have some decent weight and density to it. The real stuff, as you might say! Just be careful shoveling it. As for the GFS - it has pulled back just a little bit on total precip for our area, but we'll have to wait and see on that. I tend to like the higher resolution NAM model at this time frame as it is now within 60 hours.
ReplyDeleteBut with all this said, even the least amount of snow scenario should give us at least 2-3 inches in total, and I expect more than that for sure. Possibly by a lot. These types of storms tend to jog a little farther north and with a little extra strength than models depict. We say that play out multiple times during the winter of 2008-09, with storms consistently traveling 50 or so miles farther north than models projected even one day out. We may see a nice deformation zone slide right smack across our area with enhanced snowfall rates and totals.
Additionally, as folks living north of the thruway know, we are rarely off the hook for snow once the storm passes. Lake ehancement could add on another couple inches near the ROC metro. So when all is said and done, I wouldn't be surprised to see some locations on the north side reach or exceed 8" by Thursday. Winter Storm Warning criteria snowfall! I WOULD be surprised, however, if the ROC metro fails to reach 4" by the end of the entire synoptic and then enhancement event. So long story short, I feel confident that our first real widespread shot of plowable SYNOPTIC snow looks very likely. Oil up your snow plows all you contractors in Livingston and Ontario county. This means you too!
Does anyone have a website for models? that eastern one isnt working anymore. Looking for a similar site.
ReplyDeletethanks
Yes get those plows out a whopping 3 inches will pound the Rochester metro area. It will come Tuesday and Wednesday. It will be a long duration event so we should be able to handle it and stay in front of the snow. So you have a day and a half to sharpen the plows (ha ha)
ReplyDeleteGuys like Henry, DK and David and some Anonymous you guys have to stop projecting long range models as storms particularly for us. See a post with we could get hit midweek and keep an eye on Saturday. Also possibly the 20th and there is nothing for all three. Saturday is a little clipper system. Please no more long range projecting wait until 48 hours before a storm is actually coming.
ReplyDeleteKnow what 3" means? means us plow guys get to make money, 3" is just as good as 6".
ReplyDeleteand Nick, do you really think no one is going to talk about anything 48hrs+ out? come on now, thats what this place is for, wishcasting, and having fun trying to guess the weather.
Nicholas, this is a weather forum. People talk about weather on it.
ReplyDeleteDK, great post as always, agree 100% with you...
I can't speak for others, but I haven't mentioned anything about long range when it comes to actual storms. I don't trust any models depiction of a storm any longer than 2 or 3 days out depending on how much agreement there is among other models. If you were to believe the GFS every time, you would go insane because it constantly wants to bomb out a major blizzard for our area around hour 360 and it NEVER happens. It's laughable.
ReplyDeleteLooking at Mid-Long range models is fun. Its interesting to watch a storm take shape. How else do you learn.
ReplyDeleteHey Anonymous, Steve is right! For guys like us that plow, that means money! Take 3" of snow per drive we clear and and at the end of the day, we can come dump it in your yard and driveway! I would be willing to bet you would look at 3" of snow in a whole different light!
ReplyDeleteGood Morning David, & DK! Great post by the way DK. I am getting excited! I will be putting the plow after I get back from the city. We have a pre-op appointment for our 3 mnoth old early this afternoon. I am still hoping for a more Western push on this one for a little more out of it. Either way, I will be ready!
I did an update on the Midweek snow. You can check it out. Hope all of you have a good day - Brian
ReplyDeleteThanks Brian!
ReplyDeleteHey Bob,
ReplyDeleteHere's an article I read recently about the north pole moving: http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2009/12/091224-north-pole-magnetic-russia-earth-core.html
And here's an article I came across that talks about how, POSSIBLY, this activity could have an impact on animal life: http://www.suite101.com/content/earths-magnetic-fields-may-be-causing-bird-and-fish-die-off-a328353
Enjoy :)
Hi Bob,
ReplyDeleteRegarding the blunt trauma to red-winged blackbirds in Arkansas: I would like to suggest that they were the victims flying into the Arkansas wind turbines, which is a common occurrence in winds farms.
In addition, the dead fish could easily be related to hydrofracking in Arkansas.
Yes, I do believe that we screwing with the ecosystem, as corporations, like Halliburtin, use irresponsible methods of drilling for energy seeking the almighty dollar.
Watch the movie, "Gasland". It will open your eyes to the effects of fracking, which, by the way, is headed for upstate NY, in our beautiful Finger Lakes Region.
Love your weather blogs. Keep them coming.
:-)
Elaine